银行利润增速
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东方证券:预计25Q3银行利润增速预期稳定 板块间分化或有加剧
智通财经网· 2025-10-15 08:17
Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that the recent adjustments in LPR and deposit rates have a neutral to positive impact on banks' net interest margins, with expectations for stable interest income performance in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Net Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin is expected to stabilize, supporting stable interest income performance. The LPR and deposit rate adjustments are projected to have a neutral to positive effect on net interest margins, with new loan rates remaining relatively firm [1][2]. - For Q3 2025, the growth rate of interest income for listed banks is forecasted to decline by 0.8% year-on-year, but will increase by 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with state-owned banks showing a growth of 0.8 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Non-Interest Income Performance - Non-interest income is expected to show differentiation, with state-owned banks likely performing better due to significant growth in equity fund products and a shift in deposits from general to interbank deposits [3]. - The forecast for Q3 2025 indicates a 3.4% year-on-year growth in net fee income for listed banks, with state-owned banks expected to see a growth of 0.3 percentage points [3]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Credit Costs - Asset quality is anticipated to remain stable, with credit costs potentially returning to a downward trend. Despite a decline in loan growth, the write-off rate remains steady, which may support stable non-performing loan indicators [4]. - For Q3 2025, the forecast for impairment losses is a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, with net profit growth of 0.7% year-on-year for listed banks [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two investment themes: high-quality small and medium-sized banks with stable fundamentals, and large state-owned banks with good defensive value [5].