核心观点 渣打集团4Q25 业绩符合预期，ROT E 显著上行，业绩目标提前超额完成。公司对2026 年业绩指引保持 积极，预计2026 年营收有望保持5%左右的大个位数增长。净利息收入预计同比持平。非息收入将继续 保持双位数高增，财富管理、环球银行、金融市场流量收入均提供有力支撑。营业成本和资产质量保持 稳定，Reported ROTE指引提升至12%以上，实际提升幅度接近1pct，延续向上趋势。25年分红水平明 显提高，股东回报超预期，预计26 年综合回报率可达8%左右，高股东回报特征明显。基于较强的成长 性逻辑和未来持续向上的ROTE 趋势，上调目标价并维持银行板块首推。 事件 机构：中信建投证券 研究员：马鲲鹏/李晨/王欣宇 因此2026 年ROT E 目标设定在12%以上，实际ROT E 增长空间至少在0.8-1pct 以上。 3、2025 年企业及机构业务（CIB）收入保持稳定增长，环球银行、环球市场均实现双位数高增。渣打 集团2025 年CIB 营业收入123.94 亿美元，同比增长4%。其中4Q25 CIB 营收同比基本持平，增量主要由 环球银行业务贡献。投行业务尽管较3Q25 有所回落，但A ...

发展趋势 收入端韧性强，实现稳健增长。公司4Q25/2025A 营业收入基本符合市场预期，拆分看： 公司4Q25 单季净利息收入环比+8%，同比-1%，高于一致预期7.5%。主要由于4Q25 HIBOR 高于预期， 带动全年净利息收入YoY +0.8%。向前看，公司预计2026 年按货币敞口结构计算的加权平均利率将下降 44bp，为控制信用成本而进行的零售部门信贷组合结构优化也将对2026 年NII 产生约2%的负面影响， 综合考虑信贷规模增长，2026 年NII 预计与2025 年大致持平。 机构：中金公司 研究员：严佳卉/吕松涛/张帅帅 2025 年业绩符合我们预期 公司公布2025 年业绩。2025 全年经调口径（后同）营业收入YoY +6.1%至209 亿美元，归母普通股净利 润YoY +25.4%至54亿美元；4Q25 单季营业收入YoY +0.3%至48 亿美元，归母普通股净利润YoY+20.0% 至8 亿美元，业绩符合我们预期。 财富管理收入动能仍然强劲，4Q25 YoY +20%。银保业务/投资分销YoY +13%/+22%。公司财富管理战 略聚焦富裕客群，AUM环比增长约100 亿美元，其中 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，考虑渣打集团(02888)净利息收入预期改善，该行上调公司2026 年/2027年经调营业收入预测2.7%/3.8%至219/225亿美元;维持2026年经调归母普通股净利润基本不变， 上调公司2027年经调归母普通股净利润预测1.7%至56亿美元。公司当前交易于1.2x/1.1x 2026E/2027E P/B。综合考虑业绩预期与市场风险偏好变化，该行小幅上调公司目标价6.6%至227.27港元，对应 1.3x/1.2x 2026E/2027E P/B与14.8%的上行空间，维持跑赢行业评级。 中金主要观点如下： 股息超预期，重视股东回报 公司4Q25单季净利息收入环比+8%，同比-1%，高于一致预期7.5%。主要由于4Q25 HIBOR高于预期， 带动全年净利息收入YoY +0.8%。向前看，公司预计2026年按货币敞口结构计算的加权平均利率将下降 44bp，为控制信用成本而进行的零售部门信贷组合结构优化也将对2026年NII产生约2%的负面影响，综 合考虑信贷规模增长，2026年NII预计与2025年大致持平。 公司4Q25非息收入环比-21.2%，同比+2.3%，低 ...

2025年A股上市银行的年度成绩单正逐步揭晓，42家银行中已有11家率先披露了关键数据。从资产规模 到净利润增长，从不良贷款率到净息差表现，这些数字背后不仅反映了银行业的整体韧性，更暗藏着一 场关于利润与风险的深度博弈。 资产规模扩张与经营质量并重 中信银行和浦发银行双双迈入"10万亿资产俱乐部"，前者资产总额达10.13万亿元，后者以10.08万亿元 紧随其后。招商银行则以超过13万亿元的资产规模和7.5%的增长率继续领跑。这些数据不仅体现了头 部银行的规模优势，也印证了中国银行业在复杂经济环境下的稳健性。然而，规模扩张只是表象，经营 质量才是核心。南京银行以两位数的营收增速脱颖而出，青岛银行归母净利润增长超过20%，齐鲁银行 和杭州银行同样实现了两位数的利润增长。城商行的亮眼表现，似乎正在打破市场对"大行垄断"的固有 认知。 资产质量改善：风险管控的精细化 不良贷款率是衡量银行资产质量的关键指标。苏农银行、中信银行、招商银行等机构的不良率均有所下 降，南京银行、杭州银行和宁波银行则保持稳定。拨备覆盖率虽小幅回落，但整体仍处于健康区间。 杭州银行拨备覆盖率超过500%，招商银行也维持在391.79%的高位， ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank (referred to as "Su Nong Bank") reported steady growth in its 2025 annual performance, but the growth rate has significantly slowed compared to 2024 [2] Financial Performance - In 2025, Su Nong Bank achieved operating income of 4.191 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.41% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.043 billion yuan, up 5.04% year-on-year [2] - Compared to 2024, where operating income and net profit growth rates were 3.17% and 11.62% respectively, the performance growth in 2025 shows a clear downward trend [2][3] Interest Margin and Income - The narrowing interest margin is a primary factor behind the slowdown in revenue growth; the net interest margin for the first half of 2025 was 1.39%, down 16 basis points from the end of 2024, and below the industry average [3] - Interest income decreased by 2.91%, 2.91%, and 3.84% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with the decline accelerating each quarter [3] Non-Interest Income Growth - Non-interest income has been a key driver for maintaining revenue and profit growth despite the pressure from narrowing interest margins; in 2023, non-interest income increased by 20.07%, and in 2024, it grew by 25.55% [5] - In 2025, non-interest income continued to grow rapidly, with net income from fees and commissions increasing by 346.02%, 69.44%, and 21.32% in the first three quarters [5] Strategic Adjustments - Su Nong Bank is focusing on optimizing its asset-liability structure and enhancing risk management to stabilize its interest margin while improving profitability [4][6] - The bank is accelerating its retail transformation, with retail deposits reaching 110.024 billion yuan, an increase of 8.57% from the beginning of the year [6] Investment and Asset Management - As of the end of 2025, Su Nong Bank's total assets reached 231.103 billion yuan, a growth of 8.00% from the beginning of the year; total loans increased by 7.81% to 139.432 billion yuan [7] - The bank has increased its investment in bonds to optimize its asset structure and enhance yield levels, which is crucial for sustainable development [7]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Bank reported a stable growth in revenue and net profit for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in revenue and 8.1% in net profit, indicating a solid financial performance despite slight declines in growth rates compared to earlier quarters [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In 2025, Ningbo Bank's revenue reached 71.97 billion, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29.33 billion, both showing an 8% year-on-year growth [4]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity was 13.11%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4]. Interest Income and Non-Interest Income - The growth in interest income was supported by stable pricing and increased volume, with net interest income rising by 10.8% year-on-year, although the growth rate slightly declined by 1 percentage point compared to the first three quarters [5]. - Non-interest income grew by 0.9% year-on-year, with a notable increase in net fee and commission income by 30.7%, benefiting from improved market conditions in the capital market [5]. Loan and Deposit Growth - By the end of 2025, total assets and loans grew by 16.1% and 17.4% year-on-year, respectively, maintaining a strong expansion pace [6]. - The loan structure showed a significant increase in corporate loans, which rose by 78 billion year-on-year, while retail loans remained stable [6]. - Total deposits increased by 188.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.3%, and over 70% of the new deposits were demand deposits, aiding cost control [7]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 373.2%, indicating a strong risk mitigation capacity [9].

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate cut cycle highlights the operational resilience of the four major U.S. banks, which are expected to maintain stable performance despite the ongoing economic adjustments [1]. Group 1: Net Interest Income - There is no need for excessive concern regarding the pressure from interest rate cuts, as the market anticipates the pace of cuts, allowing for adjustments on the liability side that help mitigate downward pressure on net interest margins. As of Q3 2025, the average net interest margin for the four major banks is 2.37%, having only decreased by 6 basis points from the peak of the current cycle [3][24]. - The average credit growth for the four major banks has rebounded from 0.8% in Q2 2024 to 6.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a recovery in credit growth rates [3][30]. Group 2: Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income is expected to remain at a high level, with the four major banks averaging over 40% of total revenue from non-interest sources, benefiting from diversified business operations. Positive investment sentiment in the U.S. capital markets is likely to support continued high revenue from investment banking, global markets, and asset management [3][32]. Group 3: Asset Quality - The asset quality of the four major banks is relatively stable, although marginal changes should be closely monitored. The overall non-performing loan rate and net charge-off rate in the U.S. banking sector have slightly increased since 2024, but the four major banks maintain better asset quality than the overall industry [3][35]. Group 4: Capital Regulation - Regulatory easing is expected to further release excess capital. The latest capital requirements from the Federal Reserve, effective from October 2025, will lower the capital buffer requirements for many banks, allowing for the release of more excess capital in the coming year, which could enhance returns for bank investors [3][39]. Group 5: Valuation - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for the four major U.S. banks has reached a historical high since 2008, reflecting stable macroeconomic expectations, a shift towards a more accommodative regulatory environment, and continuous improvement in bank profitability. The current average P/B is 1.6, above the historical mean of 1.1 [3][42].

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is facing challenges due to narrowing net interest margins, with the net interest margin recorded at 1.43%, 1.42%, and 1.42% for the first three quarters of the year, indicating a need for transformation towards diversified revenue sources and value-driven strategies [1][2] Group 1: Net Interest Margin and Revenue Structure - The net interest margin is at historical lows, prompting banks to adjust their asset-liability management and revenue structures to overcome profitability challenges [1] - Non-interest income has been gradually increasing, particularly through investment income, which has become a key driver for banks in a declining interest rate environment [1] - The proportion of loans in total assets has risen from 45% at the end of 2016 to 58% by the end of 2024, reflecting effective asset structure adjustments [1] Group 2: Credit Allocation and Loan Growth - Recent policies have directed bank credit towards technology, green, and inclusive finance sectors, which are expected to yield stable returns, optimizing the loan allocation structure [1] - Loans for inclusive small and micro enterprises, green projects, and technology-oriented SMEs have been growing faster than total loan growth, with technology loans leading since 2025 [1] Group 3: Liability Structure and Deposit Management - Deposits remain a cornerstone for banks, with their proportion in total liabilities stabilizing around 81% by the end of 2024, aided by ongoing financial deleveraging [2] - Banks are adjusting deposit term structures to manage liability costs, including controlling long-term deposit interest rates and implementing quota restrictions [2] Group 4: Business Strategies for Revenue Enhancement - Banks are focusing on wealth management by creating a "product supermarket" to diversify offerings and enhance customer loyalty, thereby increasing revenue contributions [3] - Customized payment and settlement services are being developed to serve clients' supply chain needs, facilitating bulk customer acquisition [3] - In the capital market, banks are adjusting trading strategies and may invest in overseas high-yield bonds to address asset shortages [3] - Investment banking services are being sought in both domestic and international markets, particularly in sectors benefiting from policy support, such as technology [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share banking sector has shown a continuous recovery since the fourth quarter, with bank stocks, including ICBC and ABC, reaching new highs on November 14. The China Securities Banking Index rose by 0.25%, with a cumulative increase of 1.69% over four trading days this week [1] - Institutional attention towards listed banks has increased significantly, with 23 listed banks being investigated by 891 institutions from July 1 to November 14, totaling 139 investigations [1] Group 2: Focus of Institutional Research - The main focus of institutional research includes the phase trends of net interest margins, changes in asset quality, and optimization of non-interest income structures [1] - Among the banks investigated, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks have become the focal point, with 14 out of 23 listed banks located in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions [2] Group 3: Key Banks Under Investigation - Jiangsu Bank received the highest number of investigations at 83, followed by Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Shanghai Bank with 76, 75, and 70 investigations respectively [3] - Foreign institutions have shown a preference for Ningbo Bank, which attracted 47 foreign institutions for research, along with significant interest in Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Ruifeng Bank [2] Group 4: Net Interest Margin and Asset Quality - Net interest margin remains a core concern for institutions, with many banks reporting signs of stabilization in their net interest margins in their semi-annual and quarterly reports [4] - Banks have successfully alleviated the downward pressure on interest margins by adjusting their liability pricing structures and expanding low-cost deposits [4][5] Group 5: Asset Quality Management - Institutions are closely monitoring asset quality, with banks like Ningbo Bank emphasizing a prudent risk preference and strict credit risk management to maintain asset quality within industry-leading levels [5][6] - Guizhou Bank reported a decrease in its non-performing loan ratio to 1.63%, with a robust provision coverage ratio of 239.59% [6] Group 6: Non-Interest Income and Market Strategies - As net interest margins face structural pressure, the importance of non-interest income has increased, with banks focusing on bond investment strategies and the recovery of intermediary business income [7] - Banks are adjusting their fee and commission income structures, with some smaller institutions experiencing declines in self-operated wealth management income due to regulatory impacts [8] Group 7: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the influx of incremental funds will continue to support the banking sector, with expectations of increased demand for bank stocks from passive ETFs and insurance funds [9]

Core Insights - In the second half of this year, institutions have actively researched and tracked the operational status of listed banks, with 748 institutions conducting 133 investigations into 23 listed banks as of November 13 [1][2] - The focus of these investigations has been primarily on city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, with key areas of interest including net interest margin trends, non-interest income trends, and capital replenishment [1][2] Group 1: Institutional Research - The majority of institutions conducting research on listed banks are fund companies and securities firms, accounting for 53% of the total [2] - Jiangsu Bank emerged as the most popular among institutions, receiving 83 investigations, followed by Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Ningbo Bank with 76 and 75 investigations respectively [2] - Ruifeng Bank had the highest number of total investigations at 22 [2] Group 2: Net Interest Margin Trends - Net interest margin has been a focal point for institutions, with some listed banks showing signs of stabilization or slight recovery compared to the previous year [2] - Several banks reported successful measures to reduce funding costs, such as exiting high-cost deposits and enhancing the absorption of low-cost current deposits [3] - Xiamen Bank reported a 4 basis point increase in net interest margin to 1.08% in the first half of the year, with continued stabilization in the third quarter [3] Group 3: Debt Market Analysis - The bond market has shown a volatile trend this year, impacting the investment income of some listed banks, particularly city and rural commercial banks [4] - Banks are focusing on their investment strategies in the bond market, with a cautious approach to market trends and adjustments in trading positions [4] - Shanghai Bank plans to enhance its market analysis capabilities and maintain flexibility in its investment strategies to mitigate risks from market interest rate fluctuations [4] Group 4: Non-Interest Income and Capital Replenishment - Many banks noted changes in non-interest income, particularly in net income from fees and commissions, which have been affected by regulatory requirements on self-managed wealth management [6] - Banks are exploring various methods for capital replenishment, combining internal capital accumulation with external sources to strengthen their capital base [6]