银行股重估长牛

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银行新周期、新格局系列之“险资还能买多少”:长钱长投,险资配置银行既是短期必行,也是长期正确
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-10 13:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating that insurance funds are expected to continue allocating to high-dividend, high ROE bank stocks, establishing a solid and sustainable funding base for a long-term bullish trend in the banking sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the necessity for insurance companies to invest in high-dividend assets due to the low interest rate environment and asset scarcity, making bank stocks an attractive option [4]. - It highlights that the banking sector has shown stable performance with an average ROE of approximately 12% from Q1 2015 to Q1 2025, which is significantly higher than the average of non-financial listed companies [4][8]. - The report suggests that insurance funds are currently under-allocated in bank stocks, with a potential increase in allocation that could lead to an influx of over 330 billion yuan into the banking sector [4][16]. Summary by Sections Why Invest - The low interest rate environment and asset scarcity compel insurance companies to seek stable, high-dividend investments, with bank stocks meeting these criteria [4][6]. Current Allocation - As of Q1 2025, insurance funds have over 7 trillion yuan allocated to equities, with approximately 570 billion yuan in bank stocks, indicating a low allocation compared to other indices [4][10]. Future Potential - The report estimates that insurance funds could potentially allocate an additional 330 billion yuan to bank stocks, based on the upper limits of equity allocation [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality city commercial banks and undervalued joint-stock banks, suggesting specific banks such as Chongqing Bank and Industrial Bank for investment [4][17].