银行资产质量分析

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宁波银行(002142):分红率提升,期待拨备重回向上趋势
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-04-10 03:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ningbo Bank [3] Core Views - Ningbo Bank reported a revenue of 66.6 billion yuan for 2024, representing an 8.2% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.1 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [1] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76% in Q4 2024, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 15.5 percentage points to 389% [1][3] - The increase in interest income and a stable pricing environment contributed to revenue growth, while a rise in the effective tax rate was a primary factor for the slowdown in profit growth [6][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 61,585 in 2023 to 70,847.17 in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.33% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 25,535 in 2023 to 28,610.80 in 2025E, with a growth rate of 5.47% [2] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 15.05% in 2023 to 12.59% in 2025E [2] Key Performance Indicators - Interest income increased by 17.3% year-on-year in 2024, contributing 11.5 percentage points to revenue growth [6] - Non-interest income declined by approximately 10% in 2024, impacting revenue growth by 3.3 percentage points [6] - The cost-to-income ratio improved, decreasing by 3.4 percentage points to 35.6%, which positively affected profit growth [6] Loan Growth and Asset Quality - Loan growth remained robust at 17.8% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with corporate loans growing by 24% [9] - Retail loan growth was approximately 10%, down from 15% in Q3 2024 [9] - The bank's non-performing loan generation rate increased to 1.15% in 2024, indicating a need for close monitoring of retail asset quality [6][9] Dividend Policy - The bank plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 22.8% in 2024, up from 16% in 2023, resulting in a projected dividend yield increase from 2.7% to 3.85% [6][9]