Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of cast aluminum alloy is neutral, and the short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [2] Core Viewpoints - Due to the spread of anti - involution sentiment, the futures price of cast aluminum alloy is oscillating at a high level. Traditional seasonal patterns are weakening, and the price is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. As of July 25, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses increased by 0.57 million tons to 10.68 million tons compared to the previous week. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the smelting cost is rising. In July, although the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars increased year - on - year, there is pressure on sales growth as it is a traditional off - season [6] Summary by Directory Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. The refined - scrap price difference is rising trend - wise [9][14][19] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy has slightly increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and A00 has converged. The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, while the monthly operating rate has increased. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, the average production is estimated to be in a loss. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy is rapidly decreasing, while social inventory is continuously accumulating. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [27][37][39] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum Rod - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum rods are presented, including the production volume in different regions and the proportion of factory inventory in different areas [49][50] Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles has rebounded, which has a positive impact on die - casting consumption. In July, although the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars increased year - on - year, there is pressure on sales growth due to it being a traditional off - season [57][6]

机构观点：预计AD2511合理运行区间为18000-19700元/吨 金十期货6月10日讯，上市首日，铸造铝合金期货所有合约全线上涨，其中主力AD2511合约一度涨超 6%，挂牌基准价均为18365元/吨。福能期货观点：目前ADC12现货价格大约在19500-20000元/吨之间， 成本在20086元/吨，基准价低于全国现货价和成本，可关注逢低入多机会。但考虑到铸造铝合金产能严 重过剩，且6-8月为传统淡季，中长期仍将趋势向下运行。预计AD2511合理运行区间为18000-19700元/ 吨。 ...