gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜贵金属大幅回落。美伊战局激烈,美元持续走强,原油上涨加剧经济前景担忧,全球股市大幅 回落流动性风险显现。责金属短期波动率上升，后续走势仍由战争走向决定，控制仓位谨慎参与。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走低，国内夜盘开盘咯低位受助于点价买兴，暂时缩减伦铜跌幅。海湾地区铜供应链占比 微弱。尽管美欧2月制造业PMI在荣枯线上方，但伊朗军事冲突抬高能源价格增大经济增长风险，且 美元相对主要能源进口地区货币短线强势，拖累铜价。伦铜昨晚测试MA60日均线支撑。倾向高库存 压制与局势不确定,仍可能拖累铜价向下测试均线支撑,以适当消化库存。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝上涨。昨日华东、中原和华南现货贴水在170元、290元和170元，春节后库存总量较去年 节后大增超过50万吨。短期市场聚焦美伊战争，市场对于中东供应收缩有担忧，卡塔尔能源公司称 计划部分减少铝产量,具体影响尚不明确。铝价有望震荡偏强运行，继续关注地缘指引。 【氧化铝】 综合晨报 2026年03月04日 【原油】 昨夜Brent油价一度涨超9%触及85美元/桶后有所回落，但仍在81美元/桶以上高位，SC涨停。油价 持续走强背 ...

2026 年 03 月 04 日 铝：供给担忧发酵 氧化铝：关注新增产能投产 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 23905 | -560 | રૂરિક | -470 | 2275 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 24410 | l | ー | ー | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3275 | 92 | 1 65 | 104 | 432 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 611850 | 128759 | 493634 | -155030 | 432925 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 257374 | -20459 | 129737 | -8945 ...

从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 有色金属日报 2026-3-4 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z002314 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 中东战事引发东亚股市抛售，铜价震荡走低，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收盘跌 0.92%至 12964 美元/吨，沪铜 主力合约收至 101330 元/吨。昨日 LME 库存持平于 257675 吨，注销仓单比例微升，Cash/3M 维持贴 水。国内上期所日度仓单增加 0.5 至 30.0 万吨。华东地区现货贴水期货缩窄至 175 元/吨，市场货 源较充裕，下游复工推进采买情绪尚可。广东地区铜现货贴水期货缩窄至 160 元/吨，盘面下跌下游 补货增多。国内铜现货进 ...

2026年03月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡格局 | 2 | | 铜：美元大涨，施压价格 | 4 | | 锌：跟随宏观波动 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：关注宏观情绪 | 9 | | 铝：供给担忧发酵 | 10 | | 氧化铝：关注新增产能投产 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：恐慌情绪传导，铂金弱势 | 12 | | 钯：低位盘桓 | 12 | | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 14 | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 2026 年 3 月 4 日 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金 ...

2026年03月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡格局 | 3 | | 铜：美元大涨，施压价格 | 5 | | 锌：跟随宏观波动 | 7 | | 铅：国内库存减少，限制价格回落 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观情绪 | 10 | | 铝：供给担忧发酵 | 11 | | 氧化铝：关注新增产能投产 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：恐慌情绪传导，铂金弱势 | 13 | | 钯：低位盘桓 | 13 | | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 15 | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：情绪扰动为主，关注底部支撑 | 17 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪影响 | 19 | | 多晶硅：供需走弱，现货价格或有松动 | 19 | | 铁矿石：钢材出口预期转弱，矿价承压 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 22 | | 硅铁：资金与现实博弈，价格偏强震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：资金与现实博弈，价格偏强震荡 | 24 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2026年03月03日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 锌 | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | ななな | | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | な女女 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周二铜价震荡走低,尽管美欧2月制造业PMI在荣枯线上方,但伊朗军事冲突抬高能源价格增大经济增长风险, 且美元相 ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 03 月 03 日 铝：偏强运行 氧化铝：区间震荡 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 24465 | 630 | 1270 | -130 | 3070 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 24195 | ー | ー | ー | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3185 | বর্ষ | ૭૨ | -5 | 340 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 483091 | 164840 | 245148 ...

有色金属日报 2026-3-3 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z002314 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 中东局势维持紧张，黄金、原油价格走强，白银冲高后走低，铜价冲高回落，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收盘 跌 1.59%至 13084 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 102280 元/吨。昨日 LME 库存增加 3975 至 257675 吨， 增量来自亚洲仓库，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 维持贴水。国内电解铜社会库存增加 2.8 万吨，保 税区库存小幅增加，上期所日度仓单增加 0.5 至 29.6 万吨。华东地区现货贴水期货缩窄至 190 元/ 吨，下游复工推 ...

文字早评 2026/03/03 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、国家大基金首投具身智能，银河通用完成新一轮 25 亿元融资； 2、欧洲天然气价格涨幅扩大至 42%，创 2022 年 3 月以来最大涨幅，卡塔尔能源公司将停止液化天然气 的生产； 3、MiniMax2025 年实现总收入 7903.8 万美元， 73%收入来自国际市场，毛利率提升至 25.4%，业绩超 市场预期； 4、德国电信与星链合作，扩大移动网络覆盖范围。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：6.39%/4.04%/6.50%/5.49%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：6.26%/4.69%/8.74%/7.22%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：10.84%/8.37%/14.07%/10.75%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.38%/0.64%/1.28%/2.89%。 1 文字早评 | 2026/03/03 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，人民币汇率强势升值带动外资流入，建议关注国内两会政策信号以 及战局转变，策略上仍是逢低做多的思路。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周一，TL 主力合约收于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out [2] - Silver: In a volatile pattern [2] - Copper: Inventory increase restricts the upside space of prices [2] - Zinc: Range-bound fluctuations [2] - Lead: Lacks driving forces, prices are volatile [2] - Tin: Volatile adjustment [2] - Aluminum: Bullish operation [2] - Alumina: Range-bound fluctuations [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: The market trend is rather entangled [2] - Palladium: Expected to consolidate [2] - Nickel: The reality of the Indonesian ore end is catching up, be wary of speculative attributes in March [2] - Stainless steel: The contradiction at the ore end increases marginally, and the cost support center moves up [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,147.90, with a daily increase of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 1,159.98, with a night - session increase of 1.31%. The trading volume was 194,710, an increase of 25,303 from the previous day, and the open interest was 150,146, a decrease of 1,496 from the previous day. The spot gold in London rose 1.88% [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump stated that he would not stop the war until the goal was achieved, and did not rule out sending US ground troops to Iran "if necessary". The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months, and the price index soared to a nearly four - year high. Iran stated that it would not negotiate with the US, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed [4][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1 [7] Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 23,019, with a daily increase of 1.94%, and the night - session closing price was 23,927.00, with a night - session increase of 6.95%. The trading volume was 389,182, an increase of 31,572 from the previous day, and the open interest was 171,170, a decrease of 2,359 from the previous day. The spot silver in London rose 6.30% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 1 [7] Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,850, with a daily decrease of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price was 102,280, with a night - session decrease of 1.51%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 326,580, an increase of 20,754 from the previous day, and the open interest was 574,994, a decrease of 3,504 from the previous day. The LME copper inventory increased by 3,975 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's statement on the Iran war. The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months. Hudbay Minerals obtained approval to expand the Copper Mountain mine. Japan's January copper and copper alloy imports increased by 13.51% year - on - year. Chile's January copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [10] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,850, with a daily increase of 0.57%. The LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 3,308, with a daily decrease of 1.74%. The Shanghai Zinc main contract trading volume was 186,884, an increase of 82,336 from the previous day, and the open interest was 95,630, an increase of 756 from the previous day. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 575 tons [11]. - **News**: Iran refused to negotiate with the US, and the Qatar LNG export plant was attacked, causing the European natural gas futures to soar [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 1 [13] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,895, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1,960, with a daily decrease of 0.96%. The Shanghai Lead main contract trading volume was 60,587, an increase of 11,518 from the previous day, and the open interest was 63,962, an increase of 118 from the previous day. The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 1,888 tons [14]. - **News**: Trump's statement on the Iran war. The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15] Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 444,010, with a daily increase of 2.96%, and the night - session closing price was 416,600, with a night - session decrease of 7.16%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 462,899, an increase of 71,766 from the previous day, and the open interest was 49,947, a decrease of 5,845 from the previous day. The LME tin inventory decreased by 80 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Qatar energy was attacked and stopped LNG production, causing the European gas price to soar. Iran was prepared for a long - term war [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [19] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,465, an increase of 630 from the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,773, an increase of 29 from the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23,180, an increase of 450 from the previous day. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 124.60 million tons, an increase of 7.10 million tons from the previous day [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US federal appellate court rejected the Trump administration's request for tariff refund extension. Morgan Stanley warned that if the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, the Middle East crude oil would face a full - scale shutdown [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [22] Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the platinum futures 2606 was 626.50, with a daily increase of 0.44%. The closing price of the palladium futures 2606 was 463.65, with a daily decrease of 0.26%. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 29,411, and the open interest was 35,729. The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 802, and the open interest was 14,360 [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Uzbekistan stopped gold exports. The US appellate court rejected the Trump administration's request to postpone tariff refunds [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum trend intensity is 0, and palladium trend intensity is 0 [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 140,890, a decrease of 670 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,385, an increase of 180 from the previous day. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,088, an increase of 3 from the previous day [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula. Solway Investment Group planned to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia was between 260 million and 270 million tons [30][31][33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [36]