Core Insights - The commodity market has shown signs of recovery since July, breaking the downward trend observed from 2022 to mid-2025, influenced by the implementation of anti-involution policies [1] - The bond market is expected to face new adjustment pressures if PPI turns positive next year, but current indicators suggest a slowdown in production, with the next peak likely in the "golden March and silver April" period of next year [1][2] - The demand for black commodities remains weak due to limited investment in traditional infrastructure and manufacturing, as funds are directed towards debt reduction [2] - The new sales fee regulation is anticipated to impact the public bond fund industry, potentially leading to asset sell-offs, but the market seems prepared for this adjustment [3][4] Market Dynamics - The market's concern over the sales fee regulation has decreased as long-term bond products have rebounded, indicating a balanced risk appetite [4] - The current monetary environment is favorable, with expectations of a stable bond market and potential for structural recovery in November [4][5] - Ten-year government bonds are viewed as a valuable investment opportunity, providing stable yields while reducing overall portfolio volatility [5][6] Future Outlook - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in December and the domestic central bank follows suit, it could lead to a significant market reaction, pushing down the yield of ten-year government bonds [6] - The bond market is expected to maintain a low-volatility, oscillating pattern next year, with fiscal policies constraining long-term interest rate increases [6] - The ten-year government bond ETF is highlighted as an optimal tool for investors to participate in the bond market and benefit from long-term returns [7]