此外，另一只成名已久的基金——广发多因子，投资风格也较为均衡。在该基金多个季度的重仓股中， 对非银金融、电力设备、医药、通信等领域均多有涉猎，中信一级行业基本受到覆盖，因此基金净值一 度创下历史高点。 不过，时过境迁。当年风行的策略，如今已归于平淡，无论是在主题产品霸榜的年度业绩排行中，还是 在基金宣发时强调的特定赛道上，除了个别量化产品，"全市场选股"策略已鲜被提及。 对于此种状况，华东某公募投研总监认为主要系近几年的投资环境发生了明显变化。一方面，经济增速 换挡、地产链调整、居民收入与预期再平衡，使得传统消费和部分制造龙头的盈利弹性下降，估值中枢 随之回落；另一方面，新兴产业和技术方向层出不穷，导致市场风格更加多元，过去依靠少数传统核心 资产以覆盖全市场机会的做法也越来越难奏效。同时，宽基指数和Smart Beta产品发展迅速，为投资者 提供了低费率、广覆盖的被动选择，传统的主动权益产品在性价比上不再具有明显优势，必须在风格定 位和主动度上做出差异化。 "近年来，伴随着我国经济结构转型，新兴产业受政策支持的力度更强，市场风格也从传统核心资产向 新兴产业转移。传统核心资产表现相对平淡，新兴领域则迭出结构性机 ...

从今年7月开始，我们看到整个商品市场伴随反内卷交易逐步走出底部，而根据不同行业反内卷政策的 落地与执行效果，众多资产后续走势也截然不同。但对大部分资产而言，其走势已明显打破了2022年至 2025年6月期间的单边下跌调整行情。 这意味着该新规落地后对市场的冲击可能相对有限；反之，若落地后负债端扰动不及预期，在央行买债 的催化下，市场甚至可能进一步下行。 因此我们认为，在9月末的窗口期，市场对销售费率新规引发债市调整的担忧一度较高，但随着市场长 期限品种反弹、边际货币环境改善及货币政策利多逐步落地，叠加市场风险偏好趋于均衡，在大类资产 配置再平衡过程中，该新规落地后的市场冲击已相对有限。在此背景下，11月需关注的是：短期市场横 盘震荡过程中，结构性行情是否会出现修复？此前受销售费率新规冲击较大的中短期限证金债，其税收 利差是否会收敛？当前货币环境宽松背景下，信用利差是否会进一步修复？此外，在货币环境改善、债 市情绪逐步回暖的情况下，5年、7年、10年、30年等期限的期限利差，是否也会迎来一轮修复？这些修 复机会，我们认为可能是11月获取超额收益的来源。 因此我们整体判断，市场仍有最后两个月的窗口期，债市整体面临 ...

（原标题：2025年上半年波黑外国直接投资减少约1亿马克） 波黑媒体BiznisInfo11月12日报道。波黑央行数据显示，今年上半年流入波黑的外国直接投资约为 7.8亿马克，较去年同期的8.91亿马克减少了1.11亿马克。 2025年上半年，对波黑投资最多的国家是克罗地亚，投资额达2.03亿马克。紧随其后的是德国 （1.74亿马克）和塞尔维亚（1.08亿马克）。从投资领域看，外商投资主要集中在金融服务行业（5.038 亿马克），其次是零售贸易（2.198亿马克）和批发贸易（2.05亿马克）行业。 东萨拉热窝经济学院教授、经济学家姆利纳雷维奇指出，外国投资下降的趋势并非波黑独有，西巴 尔干地区其他国家也面临同样情况。投资减少的原因在于欧盟主要经济体（它们是西巴尔干地区的主要 投资国）的经济停滞或经济活动下滑；另一个原因是资本正越来越多地转向欧洲以外、生产成本更具竞 争力的替代目的地。外国投资下降对波黑经济增长的影响相对较小，因为与塞尔维亚等国相比，波黑此 前吸引的外国直接投资规模本就有限。 姆利纳雷维奇认为，波黑未来需要将外资政策与经济结构转型相协调。有必要激励那些能带来更高 附加值、创造优质就业岗位并提升经 ...

点击【樱桃大房子】关注并 10月份经济数据，叫人大跌眼镜。 工业、出口和投资，这几台发动机都有点转速放缓；消费这边呢，因为国家补贴退场，社零增速也踩了脚刹车。 工业增加值同比从9月的6.5%回落至4.9%；固定资产投资这个传统的经济压舱石，同比下降了1.7%，环比下降1.62%；民间投资同比下降4.5%；就连一直 比较稳的基础设施投资，也罕见地出现了0.1%的下降。 出口有点"怠工"，不少靠外贸吃饭的行业生产放缓。最近热门的"反内卷"政策涉及行业，如发电设备、钢材、新能源汽车等，产量增速明显慢下来了。外 部订单不好拿，内部又在告别"无序内卷"的旧模式，阵痛是难免的。 消费方面，国庆中秋双节，带动旅游消费带动餐饮零售同比增速冲高至3.8%，高于总体社零增速（2.9%）；但随着"以旧换新"政策效应减弱，汽车、家 电等补贴相关行业零售额同比增速由9月的3.8%转为-2.5%。少了真金白银的刺激，大家对大件消费还是很谨慎。 房地产就不用多说了，销售额和销售面积双双下滑，这已经是老生常谈的"冷空气"了。 现在不是哪一块有问题，而是几大动能同时在换挡，压力是实实在在的。 仔细扒一扒数据，目前经济的最大"拖油瓶"就是房地产 ...

Group 1 - Foreign capital in A-shares decreased by 166 million shares in Q3, totaling 1.161 billion shares, but the total market value increased by 12.4% to 2.73 trillion yuan [4][5] - The electronic, chemical, and automotive sectors saw significant increases in foreign holdings, with increases of 19.6 million shares, 5.04 million shares, and 3.62 million shares respectively [8][10] - Major foreign institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs increased their holdings by over 15%, with Morgan Stanley's holdings increasing by 33.1% [22][24] Group 2 - The electronic industry had the highest increase in foreign holdings, with a market value increase of 161.35 billion yuan, ranking first among all sectors [10][12] - Traditional sectors like banking, construction decoration, and non-bank financials faced significant reductions in foreign holdings, with declines of 67.68 million shares, 22.54 million shares, and 18.75 million shares respectively [12][21] - QFII/RQFII increased their holdings in the real estate sector by 361.1% compared to the previous quarter [15][18] Group 3 - The overall trend shows foreign capital is shifting from traditional consumer and financial sectors to technology and manufacturing sectors, reflecting confidence in China's economic transformation [25][32] - Foreign capital's interest in sectors like new energy and semiconductors continues to grow, while traditional blue-chip stocks are experiencing phase-out reductions [29][33] - The top foreign institutions are increasingly favoring high-end manufacturing and energy technology stocks, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [22][25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese stock market is expected to experience significant growth, with a target of 5200 points by 2026, following the achievement of 4000 points in 2023 [1] - The annual strategy report indicates that 2025 will mark a major development cycle for the Chinese stock market, characterized by capital market reforms and economic structural transformation, which is referred to as a "transformation bull" market [1] - The upward trend of the "transformation bull" market is anticipated to continue into 2026, with the potential for the market to exceed consensus expectations and challenge the historical high of 5178.19 points set in June 2015 [1]

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has seen a recent increase of 0.21% as of November 5, 2025, with a trading volume of 9.40 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.9% [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 32.291 billion yuan, with a total of 2.69 million shares outstanding [1] - Over the past five trading days, the 30-year Treasury ETF has experienced net inflows on four occasions, totaling 1.039 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 700 billion yuan, reaching 700.044 billion yuan, marking a significant increase since it crossed the 600 billion yuan threshold in late September [1] - The bond ETF scale has consistently crossed multiple significant thresholds throughout the year, including 400 billion, 500 billion, 300 billion, and 200 billion yuan [1] Group 3 - Low interest rates are expected to become a long-term norm in the economy, driven by a structural transformation from a labor-intensive economy to a new economy centered on high-tech industries [2] - The central bank's resumption of bond purchases is anticipated to create short-term investment opportunities in the bond market, despite ongoing economic pressures [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year treasury bonds [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is entering a significant growth phase starting in 2025, characterized by capital market reforms and economic structural transformation, leading to a "transformation bull" market [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4000 points on October 28, 2025, marking a new high in ten years and indicating the ongoing momentum of the "transformation bull" [1][2] - The underlying logic of the Chinese stock market is shifting, with three core factors that previously led to valuation discounts—concerns over US-China conflicts, declining economic visibility, and asset-liability contraction—now being dismantled and reshaped [2][3] - The transition in the underlying logic suggests that the Chinese stock market is entering a phase of valuation repair and expansion [3] Group 2: Drivers of Growth - The "transformation bull" is driven by three main factors: 1. The decline of risk-free returns, as traditional asset returns are unlikely to return to previous highs due to the end of rapid urbanization and the reduction of high-yield, risk-free financial assets [3] 2. Capital market reforms that enhance the investability of Chinese assets and markets, initiated by the "New National Nine Articles" [3] 3. Increased certainty in China's transformation and development, with new technologies and industries emerging, leading to a potential recovery in economic expectations and asset returns [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The market re-evaluation is broad, with opportunities in both technology and non-technology sectors, shifting from a barbell strategy to a quality strategy [4] - Key recommendations include: 1. Technology growth sectors such as internet, robotics, semiconductors, media, computing, and communication [4] 2. Global expansion of Chinese manufacturing, focusing on sectors like power equipment, consumer electronics, machinery, automotive, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4] 3. Cyclical consumption sectors showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on non-involution and new materials [4] 4. Continued optimism for financial stocks, driven by economic stabilization and surging asset management demand, recommending brokers, insurance, and banks [4] Group 4: Thematic Recommendations - Emphasis on investing in China's innovative potential across various themes: 1. New technological momentum in AI, robotics, commercial aerospace, and advanced materials [4] 2. New opportunities in domestic consumption, particularly in service consumption and anti-involution trends [4] 3. New energy strategies focusing on new energy storage, hydrogen, and nuclear fusion [4] 4. New patterns in overseas expansion and regional economic development, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals and western infrastructure [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current investment environment in China is characterized by a shift in asset pricing logic, focusing on "debt resolution, stable growth, and improved capital returns" as key policy themes [2][3] Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The leverage ratio in China's non-financial sectors has exceeded 300%, necessitating a focus on "debt reduction" [2] - China's policy response has been proactive, maintaining an M2 growth rate of 8%-9%, significantly higher than Japan's 3%-4% during its deleveraging phase [2] - The real estate market serves as a critical indicator of policy effectiveness, with first-tier city housing prices retracting about 20%, lower than the 30% and 50% declines seen in the U.S. and Japan, respectively [2][3] Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - The A-share market has experienced a relatively mild adjustment compared to the severe market shocks seen in Japan and the U.S. during their deleveraging phases, with new highs reached post "9.24" [3] - Successful deleveraging is expected to anchor long-term housing price growth between 0%-3%, while stock performance may surpass that of real estate [3] Group 3: Economic Structural Transition - China's economic structure is undergoing a significant transformation, with investment's contribution to GDP dropping from approximately 70% a decade ago to around 30%, while consumption now accounts for nearly 50% [4] - This shift is expected to keep interest rates under pressure while maintaining ample liquidity in the market [4] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The stock market has seen substantial gains, driven by abundant liquidity and reduced macroeconomic tail risks, with external demand emerging as a key catalyst [6] - The structure of China's export market is shifting towards emerging markets, which are becoming the main contributors to export growth, surpassing traditional markets like Europe and the U.S. [6] Group 5: Investment Logic in New Paradigm - The new investment logic suggests that domestic profit elasticity is generally weak, but liquidity may remain abundant, leading to a continued shift of household assets towards financial assets [7] - Growth sectors such as technology and pharmaceuticals are expected to follow U.S. economic and technological cycles, while capital goods and commodities may align with emerging market cycles [7]

Core Insights - The report from China Galaxy Securities highlights significant positive signals from China's macroeconomic policy deployment and external relations this week [1] - The release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft provides crucial guidance for economic work over the next five years, emphasizing high-quality development and a shift towards domestic demand-driven growth [1] - The easing of external relations, particularly the high-level meeting between China and the U.S. in Busan, has created a buffer against external risks and improved market expectations for stable Sino-U.S. economic relations [1] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for October has dropped to 49.0%, indicating a contraction, with a decline greater than seasonal factors would suggest [1] - The current economic environment is characterized by structural transformation and increasing external uncertainties, necessitating the guidance from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and positive Sino-U.S. interactions for a favorable economic outlook [1]