Assets Allocation in March 2026: Balanced Portfolio Amid Disturbance 3 月资产配置月报：扰动下的均衡配置 | 姜 | 婧 | Jiang Jing | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F3018552 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0013315 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王含章 | | Wang Hanzhang | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03121254 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0022985 | | 仲 | 鼎 | Zhong Ding | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03107932 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0021450 | | 张皓云 | | Zhang haoyun | 从业资格号 Qualification No .: F03114820 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0022427 | | 朱善颖 | | Zhu S ...

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal sector, represented by gold, silver, and copper, has experienced significant price increases since 2025, making "cycles" a market focus. However, caution is advised as some popular colored metal varieties may be in the mid-to-late stages of their market cycle, indicating potential risks. Despite this, the market is presenting numerous investment opportunities through a cyclical lens [1][9]. Investment Framework - The investment strategy is supported by a four-dimensional framework: macroeconomic direction, industry trend analysis, individual stock selection based on safety and elasticity, and market sentiment for buy/sell points. This approach aims to identify high-value opportunities at the bottom of the cycle [1][12]. - The macroeconomic analysis includes a detailed outlook for 2026, highlighting the short-term downward pressure on the U.S. economy and the ongoing structural transformation in China [3][12]. - Industry comparisons focus on identifying sectors poised for upward trends that are currently undervalued, considering factors like ROE percentiles, PB percentiles, and trading crowding [3][12]. Stock Selection - Stock selection emphasizes two key criteria: sufficient safety margins and growth potential. The strategy involves setting clear price tolerance levels to manage downside risk while prioritizing companies with strong earnings elasticity [4][13]. - The investment style is characterized by a "left-side" trading approach, where purchases are made when market attention is low, and sales occur before market euphoria peaks [4][13]. Market Sentiment and Timing - The investment philosophy includes capturing value recovery during the early stages of market sentiment cycles. For instance, investments in the innovative drug sector were made when institutional holdings were at historical lows, followed by timely exits as market sentiment improved [5][14]. - The current hot market for colored metals is viewed with caution, as prices may have deviated significantly from fundamentals, suggesting a likelihood of mean reversion [6][15]. Sector Opportunities - The investment focus includes sectors like aviation, which is experiencing a fundamental shift in demand due to trends such as "silver-haired travel" and family tourism. Supply constraints and potential cost reductions in oil prices further support a positive outlook for aviation stocks [8][17]. - Brand consumption and manufacturing are also highlighted, with many domestic brands showing improvements in governance and efficiency. The anticipated end of the inventory cycle for overseas brands may trigger demand for Chinese supply chains and brands [8][17]. - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as a value opportunity, particularly in internet companies that possess strong safety margins and are well-positioned to benefit from advancements in AI technology [8][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural employment contradictions in China, which arise from mismatches between labor supply and demand due to deep adjustments in population and economic structures. It highlights the role of the AI technology revolution and government actions in addressing these contradictions and provides new theoretical perspectives and decision-making references for resolving structural employment issues [2][4]. Group 1: Structural Employment Contradictions - Structural employment contradictions are closely related to the transformation of economic structures, with significant changes in the labor market due to demographic shifts and economic adjustments. The mismatch between labor supply and demand, alongside difficulties in employment and recruitment, has become a primary issue in the employment sector [4][5]. - The formation and development of structural employment contradictions are linked to the decline of the population dividend and rising labor costs in low-skill industries, while high-skill industries struggle to grow and cannot effectively incentivize educational adjustments [4][5]. Group 2: AI Technology Revolution and Government Role - The article discusses how the AI technology revolution and government interventions can influence economic structure transformation and structural employment contradictions. It proposes a new theoretical framework that includes labor and employment structure changes, production and technology structure transformations, and time allocation in both industrial and household production sectors [5][6]. - The research highlights that the AI revolution simultaneously promotes automation in industrial and household sectors, affecting labor time allocation and industry structure trends, thereby deepening structural employment contradictions [5][6]. Group 3: Theoretical Analysis Framework - A systematic theoretical analysis framework is constructed to depict the mismatch between high and low-skill labor demand and supply. The model categorizes labor into high-skill and low-skill, analyzing their roles in skill-intensive and non-skill-intensive industries and household production [7]. - The structural employment contradictions are characterized by two aspects: the relative supply of high-education labor increases but fails to meet high-skill labor demands, while the relative supply of low-education labor decreases without a corresponding adjustment in low-skill labor demand, leading to rising employment costs for low-skill labor [7].

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, achieving the annual growth target[10] - The quarterly GDP growth rate showed a decline from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.5% in Q4, primarily due to high base effects and policy timing[10] - The contribution of consumption to GDP growth was 2.6 percentage points, accounting for 52% of the total, an increase from 47% in 2024[11] Investment Trends - Total fixed asset investment was 48.52 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure and real estate investments declining significantly[20] - Manufacturing investment grew by only 0.6%, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum[20] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2%, reflecting deeper issues in traditional infrastructure financing[21] Export and Trade - Total goods import and export volume reached 6.35 trillion USD, a 3.2% increase, with exports at 3.77 trillion USD, growing by 5.5%[27] - High-tech product exports rose by 13.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall export growth[27] - ASEAN became the largest export market for China, with significant growth in exports to non-US markets[27] Price and Employment - CPI remained flat year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.6%, indicating low inflation and ongoing deflationary pressures[30][31] - The average urban unemployment rate was 5.2%, slightly below the target of 5.5%, with seasonal fluctuations observed throughout the year[42] Credit and Financing - Social financing increased by 35.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%[45] - Government bond financing rose significantly, while household loans decreased by 2.3 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in financing dynamics[45]

从2025年的基金利润表现看，嘉实基金一方面在ETF这一居民财富管理的重要领域全面布局，不仅在沪 深300、中证500、中证A500等宽基上表现出色，同时在行业主题上前瞻覆盖了受益于经济结构转型的 优势领域，布局了科创芯片、稀土等品种，为投资者赚取了丰厚利润。 公募基金2025年第四季度报告披露近日收官，基金盈利情况随之浮出水面。在基金赚钱效应增强的环境 下，各大基金公司去年为投资者赚取丰厚利润。银河证券统计显示，嘉实旗下基金2025年实现利润 1163.75亿元。 从具体统计看，嘉实基金2025年全年有145只产品(不同份额分开统计)为投资者实现利润超过1亿元，13 只产品实现利润超10亿元。其中沪深300ETF嘉实(159919)为投资者实现利润361.23亿元，科创芯片 ETF(588200)为投资者实现利润139.50亿元，均迈过百亿大关。此外，中证500ETF嘉实(159922)、中证 A500ETF嘉实(159351)、稀土ETF嘉实(516150)分别为投资者实现利润34.97亿元，28.04亿元和20.76亿 元。 另一方面，凭借系统化深度研究、成熟稳健的投研队伍，嘉实基金在主动权益领域也取得 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell back below the expansion threshold in January 2026, indicating ongoing economic challenges despite previous signs of recovery [2][3]. Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The construction business activity index dropped significantly to 48.8% from 52.8%, while the services business activity index slightly decreased to 49.5% from 49.7% [2]. - The production index stands at 50.6%, although it has declined by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a marginal contraction in production activity [4]. Group 2: Demand and Orders - The new orders index is at 49.2%, down by 1.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index is at 47.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points [4]. - The significant drop in the orders index suggests that the current economic recovery is not firmly established, with weak demand particularly in real estate sales and durable goods consumption [3][5]. Group 3: Structural Issues and Policy Implications - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises maintaining a PMI in the expansion zone while small enterprises are in contraction [4]. - The construction PMI's decline to 48.8% reflects not only seasonal factors but also a slowdown in local project construction and investment willingness [6]. - Analysts emphasize the need for stronger fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand, as the current economic recovery foundation remains unstable [7].

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨工商银行（601398.SH） [Table_Title] 大行工匠，基业长青 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们重点推荐工商银行，看好基本面稳健性和长期配置价值。1）资产负债表映射实体，伴随经 济结构转型，市占率进入上行周期。经济结构转型、新旧动能转换背景下，金融总量降速，银 行转向高质量发展。2）利率周期视角下，净息差筑底、核心营收反转。近七年的降息周期中， 银行业净息差创历史新低。目前利率周期低位运行，但下行空间受到约束，预计 2026 年利息 净收入将实现反转，大型银行的核心营收（利息及手续费）增速转正。3）资产质量韧性穿越地 产周期，风险指标波动低。目前 A/H 股 2026 年预期股息率 4.39%、5.37%。重点推荐，给予 "买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 SFC：BUT916 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 SAC：S04 ...

该公司总经理苏莱曼·恩多耶（Souleymane Ndoye）介绍，该食用油精炼厂为农食品加工重点项目，总 投资约600亿西非法郎（约合1.1亿美元），项目投产后预计将创造450个直接就业岗位和200个间接就业 岗位，为塞内加尔粮食安全和食用油稳定供应筑牢保障。公司计划在投产首年，即刻推进花生籽压榨能 力扩建工作。 据悉，马瓦马尔工业股份公司于2021年在塞内加尔完成注册，此次启用的精炼厂占地约23公顷，生产所 需电力将由太阳能电站供应。项目投产后将实现食用油本土规模化生产，进一步降低塞内加尔对进口食 用油的依赖。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经达喀尔1月28日电（记者陈晨） 1月27日，塞内加尔总统法耶在达喀尔大区吕菲斯克省 （Rufisque）森杜港区（Sendou)，为马瓦马尔工业股份公司（Mavamar Industries SA）食用油精炼厂主 持揭幕仪式，这座设计日精炼能力600吨的食用油精炼厂正式投入运营，将助力塞内加尔提升农产品本 地加工能力、减少食用油进口依赖。 法耶在揭幕仪式上表示，新启用的食用油精炼装置不仅是重要生产设施，更是塞内加尔推进经济结构转 型的具体举措。他强调，塞内加尔正致力 ...

近期，中央汇金大额减持ETF稳定了权重指数，价值股走势偏弱，但市场交易热度不减，科技成长方向 加速轮动，实现了稳指数又不打压市场热度。 长城基金高级宏观策略研究员汪立表示，资本市场监管越严格、审慎，反而有助于提高中国市场的可投 资性，也更有助于中国资本市场走的更长远，更多投资人分享转型发展与改革红利。无风险收益下沉、 资本市场改革、经济结构转型仍是构成转型行情的三大关键动力。 投资方向上，汪立认为，新兴科技是主线，价值股也有春天，关注细分龙头与A500指数。 具体来看：1）科技成长方向：全球AI算力需求仍处于需求旺盛上升期，推动半导体设备需求快速增 长，全产业链迎来涨价潮，可关注港股互联网/电子半导体/通信/军工，以及具备全球竞争优势的制造业 出海（电力设备/机械设备/汽车及零部件）等。2）非银金融方向：受益居民存款搬家与财富管理需求 增长，资本市场改革提振市场风险偏好，可关注保险/券商等。3）顺周期方向：估值与持仓处于低位， 景气底部边际改善，受益扩内需政策部署，可关注食品/零售/旅游服务/酒店，以及全球局势动荡与美元 信用下降下的涨价周期品种（如有色/化工/石油石化）等。 长城基金高级宏观策略研究员汪立表 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that technology growth and non-ferrous metals sectors are key drivers for market momentum at the beginning of 2026, with the launch of the Invesco Great Wall Prosperity Driven Fund managed by experienced fund manager Dong Han [1] - Dong Han has 19 years of experience in the securities and fund industry, with over 14 years of investment experience, focusing on sectors such as semiconductors, consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, and cyclical industries [1] - The fund will invest in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, incorporating a floating fee structure linked to excess returns to align the interests of the manager and investors [1] Group 2 - In the short to medium term, the driving force for the equity market's rise will shift from valuation recovery to profit recovery, with a focus on structural performance improvements from breakthroughs in the AI industry and overall economic recovery [2] - Long-term prospects for China's economic structural transformation are significantly improved, which will continue to translate into economic growth momentum and corporate performance [2] - Dong Han is optimistic about the equity market performance in 2026, identifying technology growth as a key theme throughout the year, with a more balanced market style compared to 2025, particularly favoring sectors such as semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, AI computing power, and humanoid robots [2]