Core Insights - The A-share market is showing signs of a potential recovery in the earnings cycle, with a significant probability of an increase in earnings indicators for Q3 2025, suggesting a gradual bottoming out of A-share profits [2] - The Shanghai 180 Index has seen a rise of 0.96%, with notable increases in stocks such as Shengyi Technology and Zhongjin Gold, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index account for 26.29% of the index, highlighting the concentration of market performance among a few key players [3] Market Performance - As of November 25, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index rose by 0.96%, with significant gains in stocks like Shengyi Technology (up 6.91%) and Zhongjin Gold (up 5.66%) [1] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund also increased by 0.68%, reflecting a positive trend in the broader market [1] Earnings Outlook - The earnings growth for the entire A-share market is projected to be 4.78% in 2025 and 10.98% in 2026, with net profit growth expected to be 10.70% and 17.94% respectively, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [2] - Historical data suggests that when the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive, A-share revenue growth tends to show significant elasticity, with past instances in 2016 and 2020 leading to substantial revenue increases [2] Sector Analysis - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and consumer sectors are expected to exhibit more resilience in growth compared to other sectors [2] - The upstream sectors are predicted to see revenue growth primarily driven by non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals in 2025, with a potential turnaround in net profit growth by 2026 [2]

从今年7月开始，我们看到整个商品市场伴随反内卷交易逐步走出底部，而根据不同行业反内卷政策的 落地与执行效果，众多资产后续走势也截然不同。但对大部分资产而言，其走势已明显打破了2022年至 2025年6月期间的单边下跌调整行情。 这意味着该新规落地后对市场的冲击可能相对有限；反之，若落地后负债端扰动不及预期，在央行买债 的催化下，市场甚至可能进一步下行。 因此我们认为，在9月末的窗口期，市场对销售费率新规引发债市调整的担忧一度较高，但随着市场长 期限品种反弹、边际货币环境改善及货币政策利多逐步落地，叠加市场风险偏好趋于均衡，在大类资产 配置再平衡过程中，该新规落地后的市场冲击已相对有限。在此背景下，11月需关注的是：短期市场横 盘震荡过程中，结构性行情是否会出现修复？此前受销售费率新规冲击较大的中短期限证金债，其税收 利差是否会收敛？当前货币环境宽松背景下，信用利差是否会进一步修复？此外，在货币环境改善、债 市情绪逐步回暖的情况下，5年、7年、10年、30年等期限的期限利差，是否也会迎来一轮修复？这些修 复机会，我们认为可能是11月获取超额收益的来源。 因此我们整体判断，市场仍有最后两个月的窗口期，债市整体面临 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current stock - bond state of "slow bull in stocks and non - continuous sharp decline in bonds" is formed by the monetary authorities' adjustment through monetary policy. They first tightened liquidity in Q1 and then used small - scale aggregate policies and structural policies in Q2 and Q3 to guide funds from bonds to stocks [2][25] - For the subsequent bond market, there are three judgments: the upper limit of the 10 - year yield may be OMO + 50BP; the 30 - year term spread has re - widened, and the yield curve has changed from flat to steep; PPI turning positive may be the important signal for the interest rate trend reversal, and there is a possibility of a market change in Q3 and Q4, depending on domestic macro - events in September and whether the Fed cuts interest rates as expected [3][4][27] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest - bearing Bond Data Review for Last Week - **Funds Rate**: The funds rate was basically stable in the middle of the week and rose significantly near the weekend. DR001 rose 8BP to 1.40% on August 15, with a weekly fluctuation of 9BP; R001 rose to 1.44% on August 15, also with a weekly fluctuation of 9BP. DR007 rose 4BP from 1.44% on August 11 to 1.48% on August 15, and FR007 rose 3BP [11] - **Open - market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase投放 continued to shrink to 711.8 billion yuan, with a total maturity of 1.13 trillion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of - 414.9 billion yuan [11] - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread showed differentiation. The 6 - month SOFR rate in the US decreased from 4.06% on August 11 to 4.04% on August 15, while the 6 - month SHIBOR rate in China remained stable at 1.61% for the third consecutive week. The inversion of the 6 - month interest rate spread slightly decreased, while the inversion of the 2 - year and 10 - year bond yield spreads slightly increased [17] - **Term Spread**: The term spreads of Chinese and US bonds both slightly widened. The 10 - 2 - year term spread of Chinese bonds increased from 31BP to 34BP, and that of US bonds increased 7BP to 58BP [18][21] - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: The yield curves of Chinese and US bonds became slightly steeper. For Chinese bonds, the 1 - 2 - year yield was almost unchanged, the 3 - month yield decreased 3BP, and the 5 - 10 - year yield increased about 3BP. For US bonds, except for the 10 - year yield, the overall change was within 5BP, with the 3 - month yield decreasing 4BP, the 3 - 5 - year yield increasing 2BP, and the 10 - year yield increasing 6BP [21] 2. High - frequency Data Tracking of the Real Estate Market - In the week of August 15, the commercial housing transaction area data continued to decline and reached a low point. The daily transaction area of commercial housing in first - tier cities was about 50,000 square meters, and the daily transaction volume was about 500 units, both at historically low levels. The daily transaction area of commercial housing in ten major cities was about 80,000 square meters, and that in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 170,000 square meters [32]