炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：开达策略知行 【天风策略】吴开达/孙希民/王澄睿 摘 要 核心结论：春季行情自身的分歧度，一定程度上能视作周期熊牛转换的标志。不局限于大势层面的长期 转换，分歧加大的时点也开启风格轮动的序章。风格轮动的春躁窗口演绎出的新主线，有望在风格确立 后的1-2年持续占优。后视镜视角看，春季躁动更多交易上年年报的反转预期和下一年年报的确定性预 期。春季躁动的交易时间跨度相对短，我们从更长的报告期区间考虑PPI回正预期对交易景气延续和困 境反转的影响。后视镜视角，PPI从前低到0与PPI回正的前后两个季度，完成了从交易景气修复到交易 景气企稳的转变。 正文摘要： 春季行情自身的分歧度，一定程度上能视作周期熊牛转换的标志。我们以一级行业、二级行业春季躁动 期间涨跌幅的方差作为春季躁动自身分歧度的衡量标准，不难发现，分歧度较高的年份，往往是长周期 熊牛转换的标志（如2013、2015、2019、2021、2024年）。 不局限于大势层面的长期转换，分歧加大的时点也开启风格轮动的序章。1）2019年春季躁动期间，成 长快速跑赢价值，成长开启3年大级 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is showing signs of a potential recovery in the earnings cycle, with a significant probability of an increase in earnings indicators for Q3 2025, suggesting a gradual bottoming out of A-share profits [2] - The Shanghai 180 Index has seen a rise of 0.96%, with notable increases in stocks such as Shengyi Technology and Zhongjin Gold, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index account for 26.29% of the index, highlighting the concentration of market performance among a few key players [3] Market Performance - As of November 25, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index rose by 0.96%, with significant gains in stocks like Shengyi Technology (up 6.91%) and Zhongjin Gold (up 5.66%) [1] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund also increased by 0.68%, reflecting a positive trend in the broader market [1] Earnings Outlook - The earnings growth for the entire A-share market is projected to be 4.78% in 2025 and 10.98% in 2026, with net profit growth expected to be 10.70% and 17.94% respectively, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [2] - Historical data suggests that when the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive, A-share revenue growth tends to show significant elasticity, with past instances in 2016 and 2020 leading to substantial revenue increases [2] Sector Analysis - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and consumer sectors are expected to exhibit more resilience in growth compared to other sectors [2] - The upstream sectors are predicted to see revenue growth primarily driven by non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals in 2025, with a potential turnaround in net profit growth by 2026 [2]

Core Insights - The commodity market has shown signs of recovery since July, breaking the downward trend observed from 2022 to mid-2025, influenced by the implementation of anti-involution policies [1] - The bond market is expected to face new adjustment pressures if PPI turns positive next year, but current indicators suggest a slowdown in production, with the next peak likely in the "golden March and silver April" period of next year [1][2] - The demand for black commodities remains weak due to limited investment in traditional infrastructure and manufacturing, as funds are directed towards debt reduction [2] - The new sales fee regulation is anticipated to impact the public bond fund industry, potentially leading to asset sell-offs, but the market seems prepared for this adjustment [3][4] Market Dynamics - The market's concern over the sales fee regulation has decreased as long-term bond products have rebounded, indicating a balanced risk appetite [4] - The current monetary environment is favorable, with expectations of a stable bond market and potential for structural recovery in November [4][5] - Ten-year government bonds are viewed as a valuable investment opportunity, providing stable yields while reducing overall portfolio volatility [5][6] Future Outlook - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in December and the domestic central bank follows suit, it could lead to a significant market reaction, pushing down the yield of ten-year government bonds [6] - The bond market is expected to maintain a low-volatility, oscillating pattern next year, with fiscal policies constraining long-term interest rate increases [6] - The ten-year government bond ETF is highlighted as an optimal tool for investors to participate in the bond market and benefit from long-term returns [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current stock - bond state of "slow bull in stocks and non - continuous sharp decline in bonds" is formed by the monetary authorities' adjustment through monetary policy. They first tightened liquidity in Q1 and then used small - scale aggregate policies and structural policies in Q2 and Q3 to guide funds from bonds to stocks [2][25] - For the subsequent bond market, there are three judgments: the upper limit of the 10 - year yield may be OMO + 50BP; the 30 - year term spread has re - widened, and the yield curve has changed from flat to steep; PPI turning positive may be the important signal for the interest rate trend reversal, and there is a possibility of a market change in Q3 and Q4, depending on domestic macro - events in September and whether the Fed cuts interest rates as expected [3][4][27] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest - bearing Bond Data Review for Last Week - **Funds Rate**: The funds rate was basically stable in the middle of the week and rose significantly near the weekend. DR001 rose 8BP to 1.40% on August 15, with a weekly fluctuation of 9BP; R001 rose to 1.44% on August 15, also with a weekly fluctuation of 9BP. DR007 rose 4BP from 1.44% on August 11 to 1.48% on August 15, and FR007 rose 3BP [11] - **Open - market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase投放 continued to shrink to 711.8 billion yuan, with a total maturity of 1.13 trillion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of - 414.9 billion yuan [11] - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread showed differentiation. The 6 - month SOFR rate in the US decreased from 4.06% on August 11 to 4.04% on August 15, while the 6 - month SHIBOR rate in China remained stable at 1.61% for the third consecutive week. The inversion of the 6 - month interest rate spread slightly decreased, while the inversion of the 2 - year and 10 - year bond yield spreads slightly increased [17] - **Term Spread**: The term spreads of Chinese and US bonds both slightly widened. The 10 - 2 - year term spread of Chinese bonds increased from 31BP to 34BP, and that of US bonds increased 7BP to 58BP [18][21] - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: The yield curves of Chinese and US bonds became slightly steeper. For Chinese bonds, the 1 - 2 - year yield was almost unchanged, the 3 - month yield decreased 3BP, and the 5 - 10 - year yield increased about 3BP. For US bonds, except for the 10 - year yield, the overall change was within 5BP, with the 3 - month yield decreasing 4BP, the 3 - 5 - year yield increasing 2BP, and the 10 - year yield increasing 6BP [21] 2. High - frequency Data Tracking of the Real Estate Market - In the week of August 15, the commercial housing transaction area data continued to decline and reached a low point. The daily transaction area of commercial housing in first - tier cities was about 50,000 square meters, and the daily transaction volume was about 500 units, both at historically low levels. The daily transaction area of commercial housing in ten major cities was about 80,000 square meters, and that in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 170,000 square meters [32]