双焦：盘面底部反弹，关注交易逻辑的变化 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2025年12月19日 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 逻辑分析 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 数据来源：Mysteel 银河期货 注意到近期市场"反内卷"情绪有所上升，前期跌幅较大的商品近日均出现了反弹，焦煤本身波动较大，反弹亦较为明显。 基本面上，近日山西焦煤竞拍流拍率降低，成交情况有所好转，部分煤种出现企稳反弹迹象，但还没形成普涨，仍需观察 下游采购力度。蒙煤方面，当前蒙煤通关车持续处于高位，库存上升，同时给国内煤也带来较大压力。不过考虑到后期焦 钢企业对于原料还有冬储的需求，叠加年底部分煤矿完成生产任务会有减产检修，后期焦煤供需可能略有改善。 预计近期焦煤波动仍较大，建议观望，亦可等待回调后轻仓试多。后期主要关注煤矿年底减产力度、下游对原料冬储进度、 反内卷交易是否持续等因素。 单边：关注交易逻辑的变化，波动仍较大，建议观望为主，亦可等待回调后轻仓试多。 套利：观望。 期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, with increased supply but supported by exports, the fundamentals of iron ore may weaken marginally, yet there could be periods of structural shortages, and demand at the lower end is supported. Domestic demand remains stable overall, while overseas demand is strong. It is expected that the price trend will not be significant, maintaining a wide - ranging oscillatory pattern. The price range for the fourth quarter is Platts 62: [90, 115], and the iron ore index is [700, 900]. The recommended industrial risk management strategy is range - bound operation [4][5][117] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Ore Price Review in 2025 - **January 15 - February 21**: Pessimistic expectations were reversed, and supply disruptions supported price increases. The black market followed the stock market, with positive domestic and overseas macro - sentiments. Three hurricanes affected Western Australia ports, reducing global shipments, and the spot market was tight. After the Spring Festival, the rapid resumption of coking coal production and inventory accumulation also supported iron ore prices [6] - **February 22 - April 8**: Both expectations and fundamentals weakened. After the hurricane, shipping resumed, and the black market diverged from the stock market. Tariff policies and the expectation of crude steel reduction led to a downward trend in prices [7] - **April 9 - June 18**: A temporary balance was reached after risk release. After the tariff shock in early April, the iron ore valuation was low, but the actual demand remained strong, with increasing hot metal production and decreasing port inventory. The Geneva Agreement led to a price increase, but the subsequent weakening of export demand and the cooling of the US economy led to a period of low - volatility oscillation [8] - **June 19 - September 22**: Iron ore prices bottomed out in late June and then rose steadily. The anti - involution trading in the commodity market drove up the price of iron ore through the increase in steel prices and the improvement of steel mill profits. The falsification of the previous pessimistic expectations also contributed to the price rebound [9] - **September 23 - Present**: Overall demand weakened, but the supply of coking coal and the structural shortage of iron ore supported prices, resulting in a wide - ranging price oscillation. The continuous high hot metal production led to over - seasonal inventory accumulation of steel products, and the decline in steel mill profits increased the pressure of negative feedback production cuts. However, the decline in coking coal prices and the structural shortage of medium - grade ore supported the price of iron ore [11] 2. Supply - **2025 Supply Situation**: The global iron ore supply in 2025 was tight at first and then loose. As of early December 2025, the global shipment was about 1.46 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The supply in China was generally balanced, with a 0.7% year - on - year increase in imports from January to October and a 1.35% year - on - year decrease in domestic iron concentrate production. The main suppliers, Australia and Brazil, faced production and shipping difficulties due to natural disasters [14][21] - **Key Suppliers' Situations**: - **Australia**: In early 2025, the Pilbara region in Western Australia was hit by severe hurricanes, causing production stoppages, port closures, and transportation disruptions. In February, Cyclone "Zelia" forced Port Hedland to close for 3 days, and Rio Tinto's first - quarter shipments decreased by 9.35% year - on - year [23] - **Brazil**: In early 2025, heavy rainfall and floods in the northern mining areas affected mining and transportation. The export revenue of iron ore to China in the first quarter decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and the shipment volume decreased by 5% - 8% [23] - **India**: It is shifting from a net exporter to a net importer. In 2025, its imports increased significantly, and exports decreased sharply. The government's policy to support the domestic steel industry and the expansion of the steel industry led to an increase in demand for iron ore [26] - **Russia**: In 2025, China's imports from Russia increased by 42.23% year - on - year. The decline in Russia's domestic steel industry demand and the optimization of the Sino - Russian railway logistics system contributed to this increase [30] - **Mongolia**: In the first 10 months of 2024, its exports to China increased by 21.84% year - on - year, mainly due to the improvement of port clearance efficiency and the construction of cross - border railway networks [31] - **Four Major Mines**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total production of the world's four major mines increased year - on - year, but there were internal differences. Vale and FMG had obvious production increases, while BHP and Rio Tinto had some production declines or challenges. The S11D project of Vale and the Western Range project of Rio Tinto are important production - increasing projects [38][39] - **Domestic Mines**: The cumulative production of domestic iron concentrate was about 215 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.35%, mainly due to safety inspections and rainfall in the north. Currently, domestic mines are in the process of resuming production [64] - **2026 Supply Outlook**: It is expected that the iron ore supply in 2026 will increase steadily, with the increment mainly coming from Simandou and Brazil. With high prices supporting shipments and new capacity coming online, shipments are expected to increase by 2% year - on - year, equivalent to about 30 million tons of iron concentrate [68] 3. Demand - **Overall Demand Outlook in 2026**: The demand pattern of the black market has shifted from domestic - driven to external - driven. In 2026, the "weak domestic and strong overseas" structure is expected to continue. Domestic infrastructure and real estate demand will be weak, while the export chain will be the main support for black metal demand. The Fed's potential interest rate cuts may stimulate overseas manufacturing demand, which is beneficial for China's steel exports [69][70] - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: The real estate industry is still in a bottom - grinding stage, and sales are expected to continue to decline in 2026. Infrastructure investment has also shown signs of weakening. However, the new construction area of real estate may improve marginally in 2026, which may reduce the drag on rebar demand [76][77] - **Hot Metal Production**: In 2025, the average daily hot metal production was 2.3748 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.43%. Currently, steel mill profits have declined, but with the concession of coking coal prices, there is still some production profit. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel industry has been alleviated, and hot metal production has decreased [83] - **Steel Mill Supply Structure and Downstream Demand**: In 2025, downstream steel mill demand was supported by exports. The demand for building materials decreased, while the demand for plate steel maintained positive growth, but the growth rate slowed down. Steel mills adjusted their supply structure through production transfer [86][87] - **Export Support**: Overseas exports are still an important support for steel demand. In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.3%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. It is expected that in 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of steel exports will remain positive, but the decline may narrow further [95] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Due to the impact of hurricanes and high hot metal production in the first three quarters of 2025, port inventory decreased marginally. Currently, shipments have recovered, and port inventory may start to accumulate again, which will suppress the upward space of iron ore prices. There is also a structural shortage of iron ore, especially for the medium - grade ore required by steel mills [98] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills adhere to the low - inventory strategy for raw materials, with a relatively high proportion of trading ore. The global iron ore floating inventory is currently high, and the arrival rhythm of iron ore is expected to accelerate. The shipping cost of iron ore has increased, and its weight in the iron ore price has also increased [100][103] 5. Valuation - **Term Structure**: The term structure of iron ore remains in a back structure, but the contango of the far - month contracts has narrowed. In 2026, attention can be paid to the opportunities of structural shortages between ore powders and months for arbitrage trading [107] - **Iron - Scrap Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of scrap steel has significantly improved in the past six months. In 2026, attention should be paid to the strengthening of the substitution effect of scrap steel on iron ore [110] - **Coking Coal/Iron Ore Seesaw Effect**: In 2025, the price seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore was significant. In 2026, this effect is expected to continue under the background of low - profit operation of steel mills [112][113] - **Volatility**: In 2025, the implied volatility of iron ore options was generally decreasing. It is expected that the volatility will remain at a low level, but attention should be paid to potential volatility increases due to sudden macro - events [115]

Core Insights - The commodity market has shown signs of recovery since July, breaking the downward trend observed from 2022 to mid-2025, influenced by the implementation of anti-involution policies [1] - The bond market is expected to face new adjustment pressures if PPI turns positive next year, but current indicators suggest a slowdown in production, with the next peak likely in the "golden March and silver April" period of next year [1][2] - The demand for black commodities remains weak due to limited investment in traditional infrastructure and manufacturing, as funds are directed towards debt reduction [2] - The new sales fee regulation is anticipated to impact the public bond fund industry, potentially leading to asset sell-offs, but the market seems prepared for this adjustment [3][4] Market Dynamics - The market's concern over the sales fee regulation has decreased as long-term bond products have rebounded, indicating a balanced risk appetite [4] - The current monetary environment is favorable, with expectations of a stable bond market and potential for structural recovery in November [4][5] - Ten-year government bonds are viewed as a valuable investment opportunity, providing stable yields while reducing overall portfolio volatility [5][6] Future Outlook - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in December and the domestic central bank follows suit, it could lead to a significant market reaction, pushing down the yield of ten-year government bonds [6] - The bond market is expected to maintain a low-volatility, oscillating pattern next year, with fiscal policies constraining long-term interest rate increases [6] - The ten-year government bond ETF is highlighted as an optimal tool for investors to participate in the bond market and benefit from long-term returns [7]

晓策佬 . 商品期货领域，转载诸路干货，原创都是实话，当然会有广告。 以下文章来源于晓策佬 ，作者乖乖隆的冬 甲醇港口库存持续150万吨以上的历史高位，陷入近年罕有的供需困局。当下已经是11月初，MA01合约的 腾挪空间捉襟见肘。且不说国内甲醇开工率维持高位、亦或国产甲醇走弱趋势，港口的漂货和未来两周进口 到港量更是让人窒息。 文 | 乖乖隆的冬 来源 | 晓策佬 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 MANUFACTURE 这个局面是怎样形成的，作为事后诸葛，我们简单回顾一下： 1、以色列6月13日凌晨对伊朗实施空袭，6月21日，美军空袭了伊朗三处核设施，伊朗23日向美国驻 卡塔尔空军基地发起导弹袭击。24日，美方宣布伊以停火。于是13日暴涨，24日暴跌，一轮行情结 束，但甲醇底部是抬升的。 （地缘） 2、7月下旬，反内卷交易开启，甲醇作为煤化工代表，具备一定政策想象力，加上MA01合约历来相 对较强，甲醇成功推上了2600的高位。 （反内卷） 3、伊以冲突影响消退，伊朗甲醇陆续发运中国，构成了较大的库存"堰塞湖"。但市场预期伊朗冬季限 气预期，港口库存压力或不足为虑。并且，美国制裁等地缘事件也可能影响伊 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows increased prices and better spot trading volume. The "15th Five-Year Plan" may issue a proposal for clearer guidance, and the Sino-US economic and trade negotiations and APEC meeting may boost market risk appetite. The steel inventory is back in the destocking phase, and the high - production dilemma needs time to resolve. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, carbon elements may outperform iron elements [2]. - The rebound space of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is limited, and the prices tend to fluctuate. The overall black - sector is under pressure due to weak downstream demand. Although there are factors supporting the rebound, the oversupply situation restricts price increases [3][5]. - The coking coal and coke futures continue to challenge the "anti - involution" trading high. The second round of spot price increases has been fully implemented. However, considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel mill profitability, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coal and coke may ease [6]. - For iron ore, industrial contradictions are gradually accumulating. The supply side has no major problems, but high iron - making water production may lead to oversupply in the fourth quarter. The expected increase in shipments from Simandou restricts the price ceiling [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On October 27, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, JM2605, HC2605, J2605 were 3312.00, 400, 4000, 1910.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price increases of 45.00, 45.00, 13.00, 15.00 yuan and increases of 1.45%, 1.73%, 1.38%, 0.79%. The near - month contract closing prices of HC2601, RB2601, J2601, JM2601 were 3299.00, 3100.00, 786.50, 1263.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price increases of 15.00, 47.00, 47.00 yuan and increases of - 0.96%, 1.45%, 0.79%, 1.54% [1]. - The spot trading volume has recovered to 120,000 tons, which is at a relatively high level this year. The overall steel inventory is back in the destocking phase, in line with the seasonality. The "Silver October" still has a peak - season demand release, but the demand has no strong explosive power, and the high - production dilemma needs time to resolve [2]. - Suggestions: Adopt a wait - and - see or fluctuating approach for single - side trading; observe the opportunity to go long on the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil when the spread of the 01 contract is below 150. For futures - spot reverse arbitrage, take rolling profit - taking and wait for positive arbitrage [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The rebound space is limited, and the prices tend to fluctuate. The overall black - sector is under pressure due to weak downstream demand. Although there are factors such as good supply - demand, cost support, low valuation, and a positive macro - environment, the oversupply situation restricts price increases [3][5]. - Suggestions: Gradually take profit on previous long positions [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - On October 27, the spot prices of coking coal and coke showed certain changes. The second round of spot price increases for coke has been fully implemented. The coking coal auction prices are mostly rising, but the market for Mongolian coal is cold [1][6]. - The coking coal supply is low due to frequent supply - side disturbances, and the steel mills' high - level iron - making water results in strong demand for coking coal. However, considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel mill profitability, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation may ease [6]. - Suggestions: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. For industrial customers with a premium on the coke futures market, consider selling some spot goods on the futures market when the price rises [6][7]. Iron Ore - The supply side of iron ore has no major problems. The BHP's current shipment is down 10.4 tons/day compared to the previous period, still within a reasonable range. High iron - making water production may lead to oversupply in the fourth quarter, and the expected increase in shipments from Simandou restricts the price ceiling [7]. - Suggestions: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and pay attention to the overall sentiment of commodities and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report's Core View - The steel industry is currently in a state where contradictions are not prominent, with prices weakly stable over the weekend. The market is waiting for the evolution of contradictions, and the focus is on the outcome of major - power leader meetings. The carbon element may outperform the iron element in the mid - fourth quarter [2]. - The rebound space of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon is limited, and prices tend to fluctuate. The overall bearish pressure on the black sector remains due to weak downstream demand [3][5]. - The coking coal and coke futures have challenged the "anti - involution" trading high again. However, there is great uncertainty about whether the coking coal futures can break through, and it is not recommended to chase the rise unilaterally [6]. - The iron ore industry is gradually accumulating contradictions. Short - term observation is recommended, considering the potential over - supply in the fourth quarter and the expected supply increase from Ximangdu [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - On October 24, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were presented, with specific price and percentage changes. The same information was also shown for near - month contracts such as RB2601 and HC2601 [1]. - Over the weekend, steel spot prices weakly rebounded by about 10 yuan, and trading volume was average. The market is waiting for the evolution of contradictions, and currently there is no consistent contradiction. The market is observing whether inventory will accumulate and whether steel mill profits will deteriorate further [2]. - For steel trading, a wait - and - see or oscillation approach is recommended for unilateral trading. For arbitrage, consider long positions when the 01 - contract coil - to - rebar spread is below 150. For futures - cash reverse arbitrage, take rolling profit - taking [8]. 3.2 Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon rebounded under certain circumstances such as acceptable supply - demand, cost support, low valuation, and a favorable macro environment. However, due to weak downstream demand, the rebound space is limited, and prices may fluctuate in the short - term [3][5]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, it is recommended to gradually take profit on previous long positions [8]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - On October 24, coking coal and coke contract closing prices, changes, and basis data were provided [1]. - The second round of price increases for coking coal and coke on the spot market has been implemented. The coking coal futures have challenged the previous high, but there is uncertainty about a breakthrough. It is not recommended to chase the rise unilaterally, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on part of their spot inventory when the futures price rises [6][8]. 3.4 Iron Ore - On October 24, iron ore contract closing prices, changes, and basis data were presented [1]. - The supply of iron ore is generally stable, but there may be an over - supply situation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [7][8].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the "Stable Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry", the "anti - involution" trading sentiment in the market, especially for the glass variety, has intensified. The price of the black building materials sector will continue to be disturbed by the "anti - involution" trading while maintaining oscillations. The downstream replenishment demand represented by furnace materials and the "anti - involution" trading will affect the disk price, and the short - term black building materials sector is expected to oscillate with increased fluctuations [3][4][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of Black Building Materials - **Iron Element**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the inventory in factories has increased, indicating pre - holiday replenishment. The typhoon is expected to affect the weekly arrival, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the poor demand during the building materials peak season limits the upside space of iron ore, with the price expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both increased again, and steel enterprises have a demand for pre - holiday replenishment, supporting the spot price, which is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - **Carbon Element**: The spot coal price has risen sharply, and the profit of coke has continued to shrink due to the increasing cost. Some coke enterprises have started a new round of price increases. The coke inventory of steel mills is moderately high, and the pre - holiday replenishment intensity is decreasing. The game between coke and steel enterprises will continue, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The coal mine production is cautious, and the supply recovery is slow, with limited upside potential. The pre - holiday replenishment of the middle and lower reaches can still be maintained in the short term, and the coal price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [4] - **Alloys**: The downstream procurement demand during the peak season still supports the price of ferromanganese silicon, but the market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and there is still room for the price center to decline after the peak season. The peak - season expectation and strong cost support the price of ferrosilicon, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still has downward pressure after the peak season [5] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The actual demand for glass is weak. After the release of the "Stable Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry", there may still be oscillations after the middle - stream inventory reduction. In the long term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline oscillatingly. The supply surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed, and it is expected to oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [5] 2. Analysis of Each Variety - **Steel**: The spot market trading volume is average. The peak - season demand has recovered slightly but is still limited, and the overall demand is weak. Steel mills have limited willingness to reduce production, and the inventory is moderately high. However, with the release of the stable growth plan for the steel and building materials industries, the "anti - involution" sentiment remains, and the macro - environment is warm, so the disk has the driving force to rebound from the low level [9] - **Iron Ore**: The overseas mine shipments have slightly declined, and the arrival volume has increased. The demand is supported by the pre - holiday replenishment, and the inventory level is neutral. The iron ore fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification, limiting the upside space, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand have both increased, and steel enterprises have a demand for pre - holiday replenishment, supporting the spot price, which is expected to oscillate in the short term [11] - **Coke**: The cost support is strong. Some coke enterprises have started a new round of price increases, but the coke inventory of steel mills is moderately high, and the pre - holiday replenishment intensity is limited. The game between coke and steel enterprises will continue, and the disk is expected to oscillate in the short term [12][13] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is stable, and the spot price continues to rise. The coal mine production recovery is slow, and the upward space is limited. The middle and lower reaches' pre - holiday replenishment can be maintained in the short term, and the coal price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [13][14] - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has intensified. The short - term impact of the "Stable Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry" is limited, and the long - term will optimize the supply. The demand is weak, and there may be oscillations after the middle - stream inventory reduction. In the long term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline oscillatingly [14] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the price is driven up by the glass sentiment. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15][18] - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The peak - season expectation is positive, and the disk oscillates strongly. The downstream procurement demand during the peak season supports the price, but the supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and there is still room for the price center to decline after the peak season [19] - **Ferrosilicon**: The peak - season expectation supports the price, and the disk recovers from the low level. The peak - season expectation and strong cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still has downward pressure after the peak season [20]

Report Overview - The report is a black metal research report on ferroalloys, dated September 16, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute of Galaxy Futures [2] Core Views - On September 16, ferroalloy futures prices fluctuated strongly. The silicon ferroalloy main - contract closed at 5700, with no change in price and a decrease of 810 in positions; the manganese silicon main - contract closed at 5944, up 0.64% with an increase of 7995 in positions [7] - Silicon ferroalloy: Spot prices rose by 50 - 120 yuan/ton on the 16th. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Market expectations for domestic stimulus policies increased. Short - term prices rebounded but high - supply pressure persisted, so the target should not be set too high [7] - Manganese silicon: Manganese ore spot prices in Tianjin Port rose on the 16th, and manganese silicon spot prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. Supply increased slightly and remained high, demand was under pressure, but cost support from low manganese ore port inventories existed. In the short - term, it will oscillate at the bottom [7] Market Information Futures - SF main - contract closed at 5700, with 0 daily change, 80 weekly change, 210936 in volume (up 10793), and 213259 in positions (down 810) - SM main - contract closed at 5944, up 38 daily, up 106 weekly, with 220244 in volume (up 36188), and 335721 in positions (up 7995) [4] Spot - Silicon ferroalloy: 72% FeSi prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin changed by 0 - 120 yuan/ton daily and 90 - 150 yuan/ton weekly - Manganese silicon: The prices of manganese silicon 6517 in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin changed by 20 - 100 yuan/ton daily and 50 - 130 yuan/ton weekly [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon ferroalloy: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis changed by 100 daily and 10 weekly; Ningxia - main contract basis changed by 120 daily and 40 weekly; SF - SM spread changed by - 38 daily and - 26 weekly - Manganese silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis changed by 12 daily and - 56 weekly; Ningxia - main contract basis changed by 62 daily and 24 weekly [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump prices changed by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/ton degree daily and 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/ton degree weekly - Blue charcoal small materials: Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia changed by 0 - 20 yuan/ton weekly [4] Market Judgement Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Anti - involution trading is heating up again. In the short - term, it follows a strong trend, but high - supply pressure persists, so the target should not be set too high - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell a straddle option combination [8] Important Information - On the 16th, Tianjin Port manganese ore spot prices: Australian lump Mn46% quoted at 42 (up 0.5), traded around 41.5; Australian lump Mn42% quoted at 40 - 40.5, traded around 40; South African lump quoted at 34.5, traded at 34 - 34.5; Gabon lump quoted at 40 - 40.5, traded at 39.5 - 40 (up 0.2) (unit: yuan/ton degree) - China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Madrid, Spain. The two sides actively implemented the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state and had in - depth and constructive communication on economic and trade issues [9] Related Attachments Cost and Profit - Silicon ferroalloy: Production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu were 5550, 5603, 5615, 5568, and 5618 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding losses of 150, 203, 235, 288, and 318 yuan/ton - Manganese silicon: Production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 5807, 5918, 6381, and 6120 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding losses of 127, 318, 701, and 470 yuan/ton [17][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating bullishly" [6]. Core View of the Report - With the deepening of the traditional peak season, steel demand is expected to improve, driving the restocking demand from the bottom - up of the industrial chain. Coupled with the boost from overseas macro and domestic market sentiment, there is still room for the sector to oscillate upward before the holiday [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation - The overall black building materials sector oscillated strongly during the day session and night session yesterday due to the approaching Fed rate cut and the introduction of domestic industry growth - stabilizing plans, which led to a resurgence of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment. The restocking logic before the National Day strengthened, benefiting furnace materials and plate products with strong demand, while building materials were still dragged down by poor demand [1][2]. 2. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Brazilian port maintenance impact weakened, and shipping volume returned to normal. Demand recovered to a high level, but the low inventory in factories and the need to verify the peak - season demand for rebar limited its upside. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: Its fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It follows the movement of finished products and is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Carbon Element - **Coke**: With the approaching National Day, steel mills will start pre - holiday stockpiling. The cost support is strong due to the resurgence of the anti - involution sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the coal mines resume production, they are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. The mid - and downstream pre - holiday restocking has started in advance, and with the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. 4. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The stable prices of semi - coke and electricity costs support the price in the short term. However, the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [3]. 5. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline if it returns to fundamental trading [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [3]. 6. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradiction of rebar is more prominent than that of hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas shipping has recovered, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The demand is at a high level, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand has also increased slightly. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented. The supply is still relatively loose, but the cost support is strong. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has started restocking. With the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11][12]. - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction, and the price is expected to decline [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The downstream restocking has driven the upstream destocking. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost and peak - season expectations support the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [15][16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost supports the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [17]. 7. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend on September 15, 2025 [99]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index rose by 0.87% on September 15, 2025, and the increase in the past 5 days was 1.17%, while the decrease in the past month was 0.62%, and the decrease from the beginning of the year was 3.87% [100].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report, Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon Daily Report for September 15, 2025 [1][2] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closed at 5700, up 92 (1.64%) daily, up 76 weekly, with a trading volume of 200,143 (up 33,027 daily) and an open interest of 217,964 (down 4,705 daily) [4] - SM Main Contract: Closed at 5906, up 74 (1.27%) daily, up 66 weekly, with a trading volume of 184,056 (up 39,263 daily) and an open interest of 327,726 (up 2,156 daily) [4] Spot - Ferrosilicon: Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, with prices in some regions rising by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [4][5] - Manganese Silicon: Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, with prices in some regions rising by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [4][5] Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon: The basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was -300, down 72 daily and 56 weekly [4] - Manganese Silicon: The basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was -226, down 44 daily and 66 weekly [4] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): The price of Australian lump ore was 39.8 yuan/ton degree, unchanged daily and up 0.3 weekly; South African semi - carbonate ore was 34.2 yuan/ton degree, up 0.2 daily and weekly; Gabon lump ore was 39.8 yuan/ton degree, down 0.2 daily and up 0.3 weekly [4] - Lanthanum Coke Small Pieces: The price in Shaanxi was 660 yuan/ton, up 10 daily and weekly; in Ningxia it was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia it was 630 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Anti - involution trading has heated up again. In the short term, it will follow the upward trend, but the pressure of high supply in reality still exists, and the target should not be set too high [5][6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell a straddle option combination [6] Key Information - In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron output was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; steel output was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [7] - On September 16, the 18th issue of Qiushi Journal will publish an important article by Xi Jinping, aiming to rectify the chaotic situation of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [7] Group 4: Cost and Profit Ferrosilicon - Inner Mongolia: Production cost was 5,538 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 228 yuan/ton [18] - Ningxia: Production cost was 5,591 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 341 yuan/ton [18] - Shaanxi: Production cost was 5,603 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 353 yuan/ton [18] - Qinghai: Production cost was 5,562 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 312 yuan/ton [18] - Gansu: Production cost was 5,612 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 312 yuan/ton [18] Manganese Silicon - Inner Mongolia: Production cost was 5,802 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 122 yuan/ton [21] - Ningxia: Production cost was 5,913 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 363 yuan/ton [21] - Guangxi: Production cost was 6,371 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 691 yuan/ton [21] - Guizhou: Production cost was 6,111 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 461 yuan/ton [21]