Workflow
反内卷交易
icon
Search documents
“反内卷”交易未?,短期价格仍有波动
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 07:07
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-25 "反内卷"交易未⽌,短期价格仍有波 动 昨⽇《建材⾏业稳增⻓⽅案》出台,市场"反内卷"情绪、尤其是针 对玻璃品种再度加强,⽇盘板块⼀度整体快速拉升,之后⼩幅回落, 夜盘时段,板块震荡运⾏为主。从《建材⾏业稳增⻓⽅案》出台以及 市场表现来看,"反内卷"交易未⽌,且后期仍有预期,当前基本⾯ ⽆显著变化,因此价格保持震荡过程中继续受"反内卷"交易扰动。 昨日《建材行业稳增长方案》出台,市场"反内卷"情绪、尤其是针 对玻璃品种再度加强,日盘板块一度整体快速拉升,之后小幅回落, 夜盘时段,板块震荡运行为主。从《建材行业稳增长方案》出台以及 市场表现来看,"反内卷"交易未止,且后期仍有预期,当前基本面 无显著变化,因此价格保持震荡过程中继续受"反内卷"交易扰动。 1、铁元素方面,铁矿需求高位支撑,厂内库存增加,体现节前补 库,当前台风因素预计影响周内到港,短期基本面健康,但建材旺季 需求仍表现欠佳,限制铁矿上方空间,预计短期价格震荡。废钢供需 再度双增,且钢企节前有补库需求,支撑现货价格,预计短期震荡。 2、碳元素方面, ...
银河期货铁合金日报-20250916
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 09:03
Report Overview - The report is a black metal research report on ferroalloys, dated September 16, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute of Galaxy Futures [2] Core Views - On September 16, ferroalloy futures prices fluctuated strongly. The silicon ferroalloy main - contract closed at 5700, with no change in price and a decrease of 810 in positions; the manganese silicon main - contract closed at 5944, up 0.64% with an increase of 7995 in positions [7] - Silicon ferroalloy: Spot prices rose by 50 - 120 yuan/ton on the 16th. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Market expectations for domestic stimulus policies increased. Short - term prices rebounded but high - supply pressure persisted, so the target should not be set too high [7] - Manganese silicon: Manganese ore spot prices in Tianjin Port rose on the 16th, and manganese silicon spot prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. Supply increased slightly and remained high, demand was under pressure, but cost support from low manganese ore port inventories existed. In the short - term, it will oscillate at the bottom [7] Market Information Futures - SF main - contract closed at 5700, with 0 daily change, 80 weekly change, 210936 in volume (up 10793), and 213259 in positions (down 810) - SM main - contract closed at 5944, up 38 daily, up 106 weekly, with 220244 in volume (up 36188), and 335721 in positions (up 7995) [4] Spot - Silicon ferroalloy: 72% FeSi prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin changed by 0 - 120 yuan/ton daily and 90 - 150 yuan/ton weekly - Manganese silicon: The prices of manganese silicon 6517 in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin changed by 20 - 100 yuan/ton daily and 50 - 130 yuan/ton weekly [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon ferroalloy: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis changed by 100 daily and 10 weekly; Ningxia - main contract basis changed by 120 daily and 40 weekly; SF - SM spread changed by - 38 daily and - 26 weekly - Manganese silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis changed by 12 daily and - 56 weekly; Ningxia - main contract basis changed by 62 daily and 24 weekly [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump prices changed by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/ton degree daily and 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/ton degree weekly - Blue charcoal small materials: Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia changed by 0 - 20 yuan/ton weekly [4] Market Judgement Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Anti - involution trading is heating up again. In the short - term, it follows a strong trend, but high - supply pressure persists, so the target should not be set too high - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell a straddle option combination [8] Important Information - On the 16th, Tianjin Port manganese ore spot prices: Australian lump Mn46% quoted at 42 (up 0.5), traded around 41.5; Australian lump Mn42% quoted at 40 - 40.5, traded around 40; South African lump quoted at 34.5, traded at 34 - 34.5; Gabon lump quoted at 40 - 40.5, traded at 39.5 - 40 (up 0.2) (unit: yuan/ton degree) - China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Madrid, Spain. The two sides actively implemented the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state and had in - depth and constructive communication on economic and trade issues [9] Related Attachments Cost and Profit - Silicon ferroalloy: Production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu were 5550, 5603, 5615, 5568, and 5618 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding losses of 150, 203, 235, 288, and 318 yuan/ton - Manganese silicon: Production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 5807, 5918, 6381, and 6120 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding losses of 127, 318, 701, and 470 yuan/ton [17][22]
补库逻辑加强、市场情绪改善,板块品种价格仍有上?空间
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 06:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating bullishly" [6]. Core View of the Report - With the deepening of the traditional peak season, steel demand is expected to improve, driving the restocking demand from the bottom - up of the industrial chain. Coupled with the boost from overseas macro and domestic market sentiment, there is still room for the sector to oscillate upward before the holiday [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation - The overall black building materials sector oscillated strongly during the day session and night session yesterday due to the approaching Fed rate cut and the introduction of domestic industry growth - stabilizing plans, which led to a resurgence of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment. The restocking logic before the National Day strengthened, benefiting furnace materials and plate products with strong demand, while building materials were still dragged down by poor demand [1][2]. 2. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Brazilian port maintenance impact weakened, and shipping volume returned to normal. Demand recovered to a high level, but the low inventory in factories and the need to verify the peak - season demand for rebar limited its upside. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: Its fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It follows the movement of finished products and is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Carbon Element - **Coke**: With the approaching National Day, steel mills will start pre - holiday stockpiling. The cost support is strong due to the resurgence of the anti - involution sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the coal mines resume production, they are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. The mid - and downstream pre - holiday restocking has started in advance, and with the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. 4. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The stable prices of semi - coke and electricity costs support the price in the short term. However, the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [3]. 5. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline if it returns to fundamental trading [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [3]. 6. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradiction of rebar is more prominent than that of hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas shipping has recovered, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The demand is at a high level, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand has also increased slightly. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented. The supply is still relatively loose, but the cost support is strong. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has started restocking. With the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11][12]. - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction, and the price is expected to decline [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The downstream restocking has driven the upstream destocking. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost and peak - season expectations support the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [15][16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost supports the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [17]. 7. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend on September 15, 2025 [99]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index rose by 0.87% on September 15, 2025, and the increase in the past 5 days was 1.17%, while the decrease in the past month was 0.62%, and the decrease from the beginning of the year was 3.87% [100].
银河期货铁合金日报-20250915
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 09:57
铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员:周涛 期货从业证号: F03134259 大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 联系方式: :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5700 | 92 | 76 | 200143 | 33027 | 217964 | -4705 | | SM主力合约 | 5906 | 74 | 66 | 184056 | 39263 | 327726 | 2156 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5400 | 20 | 20 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | 30 | 0 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 538 ...
宏观与大类资产周报:中美谈判的预期回摆-20250914
CMS· 2025-09-14 11:34
Domestic Economic Outlook - August exports fell short of expectations, indicating a potential slowdown in China's export growth, with a trade surplus of $98.24 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year[19] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in August showed a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a narrowing from the previous month's 3.6%[20] U.S. Economic Indicators - Following the release of non-farm employment, PPI, and CPI data, market expectations for rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, with initial jobless claims rising significantly in the week of September 14[17] - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments on Trump's tariff case in November, which may accelerate tariff adjustments[17] Currency and Trade Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China talks from September 14-17 may influence the RMB exchange rate; if tariffs are reduced, the RMB could strengthen past the 7 mark[18] - A weak dollar trading environment has temporarily ended, with the U.S. significantly revising down employment data, reinforcing the case for Fed rate cuts[18] Market Performance - The A-share market showed a weekly increase of 1.52%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 3.82%[45] - Gold prices have been fluctuating upwards, and international crude oil prices have rebounded[43] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The overall liquidity shifted from tight to loose, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos this week[24] - The weighted issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.6264%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week[27]
宏观与大类资产周报:弱美元交易或暂时延续-20250907
CMS· 2025-09-07 14:32
Domestic Insights - The August PMI manufacturing price index increased, likely due to the upward shift in upstream commodity prices, which may hinder future corporate profit recovery[2] - The current domestic market is in a new bull market phase, with wealth effects expected to boost service consumption as a highlight for Q4 economic growth[2] - September is a critical observation window for RMB appreciation, especially if US-China negotiations show substantial progress[2] Overseas Insights - In August, non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a moderate slowdown in employment rather than a rapid decline[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July, reinforcing concerns about employment risks discussed at the Jackson Hole meeting[15] - The weak non-farm data suggests the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 75 basis points this year, with weak dollar trading likely to continue in the coming weeks[15] Liquidity and Market Trends - The overall liquidity tightened this week, with the benchmark interest rate down approximately 7.412 basis points[19] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased by about 2417.16 billion CNY, reaching 73138.95 billion CNY[20] - Government bond issuance pressure decreased, with a net repayment of 1184.54 billion CNY and a planned issuance of 8376.7 billion CNY next week[21] Asset Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.83%[39] - Gold prices showed an upward trend, while international crude oil prices experienced a downward trend[37] - The US 10-year Treasury yield declined, reflecting a mixed performance in European bond yields[39]
风险偏好难回落,债市仍处逆风期
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-07 08:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints - Next week, most fundamental data is expected to be weak, but the M1 growth rate may continue to rise, and the market is relatively insensitive to fundamental data. The bond market in Q3 has seasonal patterns, with adjustment pressure increasing in the middle and late months. The decline in constraints on domestic incremental policies after the Fed's rate cut and the potential for an anti - involution market may suppress bond market sentiment. It is recommended to take a bearish approach to the bond market next week, continue to focus on short - hedging strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve strategies [2] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From September 1st to September 7th, treasury bond futures oscillated. On Monday, the bond market strengthened; on Tuesday, both stocks and bonds declined; on Wednesday, the bond market first rose and then the gains narrowed; on Thursday, the bond market rose due to the stock market decline; on Friday, the bond market fell sharply. As of September 5th, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts were 102.388, 105.580, 107.920, and 116.300 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.032, + 0.065, + 0.100, and - 0.260 yuan compared to last weekend [9] 1.2 Next Week's View - The bond market is expected to be weak next week. Fundamental data is concentrated, but the market is insensitive to it. The M1 growth rate may rise, and the risk appetite may increase. The approaching tax period will lead to marginal tightening of the capital side. The Fed's rate - cut expectation and the potential anti - involution market may suppress bond market sentiment. It is recommended to take a bearish approach, focus on short - hedging strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve strategies [2][11][12] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 39 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 5629.61 billion yuan and a net financing of 3170.39 billion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds decreased, and that of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [18] 2.2 Secondary Market - As of September 5th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds showed a differentiated trend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed, while the 10Y - 5Y spread widened. The implied tax rate increased [22] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Position - As of September 5th, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts changed compared to last weekend. The trading volumes and positions of each contract decreased compared to last weekend [32][35] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious. The basis of treasury bond futures generally oscillated narrowly, and the IRR of the CTD bonds of each main contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%. The basis and IRR of TL fluctuated greatly, but trading opportunities were difficult to grasp [39] 3.3 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - As of September 5th, the inter - period spreads of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2509 - 2512 contracts changed compared to last weekend [43] 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - This week, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 12047 billion yuan. The R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates all decreased. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased, and the overnight proportion was slightly higher than last week [48][51][53] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index oscillated narrowly, and the yield of the 10Y US treasury bond decreased. As of September 5th, the US dollar index fell 0.11% to 97.7357, and the yield of the 10Y US treasury bond was 4.10%, down 13BP from last weekend. The 8 - month non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, strengthening the rate - cut expectation [59] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices fell, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of September 5th, the South China industrial product index, metal index, and energy and chemical index decreased, while the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits changed differently compared to last weekend [62] 7. Investment Suggestions - The bond market is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is recommended to take a bearish approach [63]
【笔记20250905— 反内卷 卷起债心酸】
债券笔记· 2025-09-05 11:18
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics, highlighting a strong rebound in the stock market and the emergence of "anti-involution" trading strategies in commodities, while also noting a slight tightening in the funding environment [3][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market experienced a strong rebound, attributed to major institutions realizing profits at the end of the quarter [6]. - The funding environment showed slight tightening, with the central bank conducting a 1,883 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, while 7,829 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 5,946 billion yuan [3][4]. - The long-term bond yields saw a slight increase, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.7525% to 1.78% during the day [6][7]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Funding Rates - The funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 at approximately 1.44% [4]. - The weighted rates for repos showed minimal changes, with R001 at 1.36% and R007 at 1.46%, indicating a slight decrease in transaction volumes [5]. - The overall transaction volume in the repo market was 76,332.53 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3,275.32 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market saw a resurgence of "anti-involution" trading, with leading stocks like polysilicon hitting the upper limit, while government bond futures experienced a decline [7]. - The market sentiment regarding the "anti-involution" narrative appears mixed, as evidenced by the fluctuating performance of bond funds, with pure bond funds seeing negative net subscriptions after three days of small net purchases [7].
EPMI环比改善
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-24 13:56
Economic Indicators - The China Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) for August is 47.8, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a marginal improvement in economic sentiment[4] - The production price index (PPI) is expected to decline by approximately 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year in August, reflecting weak overall factory prices despite a significant year-on-year improvement due to lower technical levels last year[6] Financial Data - From January to July, the real sector received approximately 19 trillion yuan in funding, an increase of 2.7 trillion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by fiscal fund disbursements[10] - New deposits from residents amounted to 9.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 720 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards more liquid deposits[10] Market Trends - In the wake of new housing policies in Beijing, the year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales has narrowed, with second-hand housing sales showing a positive year-on-year growth[17] - Several small and medium-sized banks have lowered deposit rates, with rates for various terms adjusted down by 10 to 20 basis points[14] Risks - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments pose risks of export volatility and declining corporate profits[3] - Changes in global geopolitical situations and international market fluctuations may continue to impact commodity prices and related industries[3]
黑色壹周谈 反内卷交易尘埃落地? 淡旺季交接何去何从?
2025-08-21 15:05
Summary of Conference Call on Black Industry Chain Industry Overview - The black industry chain has seen a significant reduction in the premium from anti-involution, with materials like polysilicon and lithium carbonate entering a period of expected adjustment, necessitating attention to steel demand in Q4 to avoid downward risks [1][2] - Iron ore has shown strong resistance to declines, but its sustainability is questionable if steel demand expectations are weak [1][5] - Coal production recovery post-inspection and the rapid increase in sea and Mongolian coal imports are critical factors to monitor [1][5] Key Points and Arguments Steel Market - Steel inventory is currently low, and the peak season demand has yet to be validated, leading to a gradual accumulation of inventory [1][9] - Price fluctuations are influenced by downstream replenishment willingness; lower prices encourage buying, while higher prices face resistance [1][9] - The forecast for rebar prices in Q3 and Q4 is between 3,100 to 3,400 RMB, with hot-rolled steel expected to be 100 RMB higher [3][25] Coal Market - The core driver for coking coal is policy regulation; without production limits, output may continue to rise, leading to potential oversupply [1][6] - The daily consumption of thermal coal is nearing its peak, with improving import volumes and domestic supply recovering to high levels, indicating potential price weakness ahead [1][7] - The Xinjiang overproduction issue is a significant concern for the coal market [1][8] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is expected to remain balanced, with port inventories projected to rise to 150 million tons by year-end [3][23] - The equilibrium price for iron ore is estimated around 240 USD, with fluctuations expected based on demand conditions [12] Future Outlook - The overall sentiment for Q4 is cautious, with potential for a weak market due to insufficient consumption drivers and weakening realities [1][28] - The steel export market is performing well, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative and domestic cost advantages, with a projected increase in exports of 1.3 to 1.5 million tons [20][21] - The focus for investment strategies should be on raw materials, particularly coking coal, as the market navigates through potential negative feedback loops [1][28][29] Additional Important Insights - The impact of recent policies, such as consumer loan interest subsidies, is expected to stimulate some demand but overall internal demand growth remains limited [19] - The black industry chain's performance is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics [13][17] - The market is currently characterized by a cautious approach, with a need for new expectations to drive price movements [1][30]