锂市场超级周期
Search documents
全球锂市迎来新一轮超级周期
中国能源报· 2026-03-18 23:32
Core Viewpoint - The current lithium supply projects are unlikely to meet the demand by the mid-2030s, highlighting the necessity for continued investment in the lithium value chain [1][5]. Group 1: Supply Shortage and Demand Growth - A more urgent supply shortage is approaching, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage, with a consensus forming around tightening market conditions [3][6]. - Wood Mackenzie forecasts that lithium will face a supply shortage as early as 2028 under various energy transition scenarios, with a projected supply gap of approximately 670,000 tons by 2050 in a steady transition scenario [5][6]. - The lithium supply gap is imminent, with the need to mobilize capital quickly to secure more lithium resources [6]. Group 2: Role of Energy Storage - Energy storage is emerging as a new growth driver for lithium demand, with annual growth rates of 6%-7% expected as renewable energy becomes dominant [8][9]. - UBS predicts a 55% increase in lithium demand from energy storage in 2026, with energy storage's share of lithium demand projected to rise from 8% in 2020 to 42% by 2035 [9]. Group 3: Lithium Price Trends - The lithium market is currently experiencing a dual drive from supply-side disruptions and increased demand from energy storage, leading to a new upward trend in lithium prices [10][11]. - After a period of low prices, lithium prices surged from under $10 per kilogram in 2020 to nearly $70 per kilogram by 2022, with a forecasted price adjustment to around $26 per kilogram by UBS due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [12][13].