Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant fluctuations in precious metals, driven by changes in margin requirements and adjustments in commodity index weights, leading to a rebound in precious metals prices following disappointing non-farm payroll data [3] - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on precious metals due to ongoing geopolitical events and expectations of monetary easing, suggesting investors should hold positions despite market volatility [3] - For copper, the report recommends buying on dips, citing expected supply-demand tightness in 2026 due to production cuts from major producers and increased fiscal spending expectations from the U.S. government [4] - The aluminum market is also recommended for buying on dips, with strong macro policy expectations and geopolitical risks providing support despite current demand pressures [4] - Tin prices have surged past 350,000 yuan/ton, driven by significant inventory reductions and ongoing demand from AI capital expenditures, with a recommendation to buy on dips [5] - Lithium prices continue to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips, supported by supply constraints and strong demand expectations [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw an 8.3% increase this week, ranking fifth among sectors [13] Prices - LME copper decreased by 0.93%, aluminum increased by 1.91%, zinc decreased by 1.84%, lead increased by 0.84%, and tin increased by 7.38% [18] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 1.32%, silver by 4.29%, and NYMEX palladium by 5.73%, while platinum fell by 18.09% [18] - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 17.15% [18] Inventory - Global visible copper inventories increased by 31,985 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 809 tons, zinc decreased by 900 tons, lead decreased by 11,300 tons, and tin decreased by 916 tons [24][26]

摩根大通发布研报称，对2026年基础材料板块的偏好顺序为：铜/金>铝>锂>煤>钢铁;受到供应中断或供 应紧张，及进一步并购活动推动下，预计今年MSCI中国材料指数将持续跑赢MSCI中国指数。紫金矿业 （601899）(02899)仍是小摩今年的首选标的，继续看好洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)、中国铝业 （601600）(02600)及中国宏桥(01378)。 基于小摩对铜的正面看法，将江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)评级上调至中性;又认为中国政策仍是大 宗商品价格的主要驱动力，但自2025年第四季起，反内卷政策的后续执行与力度较预期温和。削减过剩 产能是一项多年的努力，在没有更大幅度的减产措施下，预计钢铁利润率将维持低位。故将宝钢股份 （600019）(600019.SH)评级下调至"中性"，鞍钢股份（000898）(00347)下调至减持。 ...

场内ETF方面，截至2026年1月12日 14:00，中证稀有金属主题指数(930632)强势上涨2.48%，成分股西 部超导上涨15.10%，中稀有色10cm涨停，北方稀土上涨6.42%，东方钽业，盛新锂能等个股跟涨。稀有 金属ETF基金(561800)上涨2.12%。拉长时间看，截至2026年1月9日，稀有金属ETF基金近1周累计上涨 9.71%。 2025年以来，小金属价格持续走强，稀有金属板块强势爆发。基本面上，去年12月国内钨产品价格持续 走高， 各核心钨产品价格均涨幅显著。 有分析认为，供应端的持续收紧是价格上行的核心推力，一方 面是年末矿山开采节奏较缓，资源释放明显偏紧，另一方面是仲钨酸铵生产企业检修工作陆续开启，随 着供应端的持续收缩，市场情绪从谨慎观望逐渐转向偏强看涨，市场开启新一轮加速上涨，当前钨矿及 主要冶炼产品较去年初涨幅均已超200%。 中邮证券指出，稀有金属一方面受益于新能源车补贴温和利好信号释放，另一方面因部分磷酸铁锂厂计 划检修，年前供给相对紧缺，叠加行业对六氟磷酸锂需求预期较好，在供给稳步提升、需求整体持稳背 景下，碳酸锂预计将保持去库态势。政策端，今年2月，商务部会同海关总 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 1月12日消息，据上交所数据显示，截至11：10，上证指数上涨0.72%，CS稀金属指数上涨0.31%，个股 方面，北方稀土、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业等涨超 2%，盐湖股份、中矿资源等涨超 1%，中国稀土、盛和 资源等跟涨。 政策与地缘层面再添新变量，1月10日消息显示，国内部分国有企业已停止与日本企业签订新的稀土销 售协议，叠加此前1月6日商务部发布的对日两用物项出口管制公告，稀土作为战略资源的价值进一步凸 显。国内政策同步护航，2026年钨矿开采指标再收紧，出口资格仅15家企业获批，合法供应增量受限。 指数层面，中证稀有金属主题指数前两大权重品种为锂（33.67%）、稀土（24.63%），选取不超过50 家业务涉及稀有金属采矿、冶炼和加工的上市公司证券作为样本，精准反映板块核心景气度。 稀有金属ETF（562800）跟踪中证稀有金属主题指数，前十大权重股分别为洛阳钼业、北方稀土、华友 钴业、盐湖股份、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、中矿资源、厦门钨业、西部超导、中国稀土，权重合计 ...

大家好，我是初善君。 航天周五（1月9日）集体再次高潮，有句正确的废话我不想说，但是不得不说，没有一种题材可以一直 涨，任何成长股从预期到业绩兑现、到不及预期、或者超预期，都是一波三折，这个大家要记住了，我 不看空也不做空，算是提醒一下，说多了怕耽误你们赚钱。 有小伙伴问我有色ETF（159876）怎么样，这个位置的有色高不高？ 我有两句话送给大家。 一是有色价格不到顶，股价不到顶。 现在是全球资源大牛市，各种金属都在涨价，涨价必然带来利润的大幅增长，所以只要产品价格维持高 位或者持续上涨，有色ETF（159876）还会一直涨。 二是国内有色企业迎来价值重估。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 大家好，我是初善君。 航天周五（1月9日）集体再次高潮，有句正确的废话我不想说，但是不得不说，没有一种题材可以一直 涨，任何成长股从预期到业绩兑现、到不及预期、或者超预期，都是一波三折，这个大家要记住了，我 不看空也不做空，算是提醒一下，说多了怕耽误你们赚钱。 有小伙伴问我有色ETF（159876）怎么样，这个位置的有色高不高？ 我有两句话送给大家。 一是有色价格不到顶，股价不到顶。 现在是全球资源大牛市，各种金属都在涨价 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金石杂谈 1月11日，沪指已经突破4100点，暴力上演历史记录的16连阳，相较于11月12月动辄4000股下跌，目前 则是动辄4000股上涨。随着商业航天、可控核聚变、脑机接口、人形机器人、资源股暴力大涨之下，未 来走势能否延续，一起来看机构怎么看？ 中信证券：主题、小票震荡向上格局延续，看好资源和传统制造。年初的躁动缘于跨年踏空资金的集中 密集入场，"人心思涨"是大背景，一些前期谨慎资金的追涨加速了行情演绎，但躁动主要发生在主题板 块以及量化影响较大的小票，而非配置型资金布仓方向。 从当前的量价和风偏指标来看，短期市场热度偏高，但情绪指标还没有转弱迹象，预计主题、小票轮动 的震荡上行格局可能还会延续到两会前后，直至内需预期的上修，市场才会回到基本面驱动状态。 不过，抛开短期的市场躁动，站在全年维度，真正具备持续入场体量的配置型资金今年对权益组合降低 波动的诉求是更高的，需要考虑的是这部分可持续的"大钱"（而不是年初踏空资金）会持续流向的方 向。在配置上，建议资源和传统制造定价权提升逻辑打底，增配非银金融，兼顾反共识品种降低组合波 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：一凌策略研究 作者：牟一凌 纪博文 吴晓明 【报告导读】基于流动性边际改善驱动近的A股上涨在春季行情中并不鲜见，历史经验表明后续A股更可能有较好的表现。春季行情已进行过半，国内外 基本面变化方向将是未来市场主线的方向：AI对海外就业市场的抑制作用正在显现，这意味着美联储货币政策宽并不太可能带来通胀压力的上升，由此 延长美联储的降息周期；在货币宽松周期中，存在供需缺口的商品侧的价格弹性会更加突出；国内则随着反内卷政策的持续推进，企业盈利的修复值得期 待。 摘要 1市场上涨：整体仍在趋势之中，结构上存在过热 市场流动性的改善是驱动12月下旬以来A股上涨的直接驱动因素：两融余额在半个月的时间内增加超1250亿元且融资买入活跃度显著提升，带动全A成交 额增长超过35%、宽基指数期权隐含波动回升。类似最近半个月全A涨幅接近10%、成交额放大幅度超30%的情况在过去十年中出现过6次，其中有4次出 现在年初，当前的市场状态在春季行情中并不鲜见。从历史经验来看，在市场出现类似放量上涨后，未来10个交易日、20个交易日以及250个交易日内全 A走强的概率比较大。但是，整体的高胜率也不应该忽视结构上的过热：近 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that weak employment data in the U.S. has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting precious metals which have shown a rebound after initial pressure [1]. - The copper market is facing supply disruptions and tight inventory in non-U.S. regions, which may lead to price volatility [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience strong fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and improving macroeconomic sentiment [3]. - Nickel prices are anticipated to remain volatile due to policy uncertainties in Indonesia affecting supply [4]. - Tin prices are projected to experience strong fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors and funding sentiment [5]. - Lithium prices are expected to remain high due to seasonal demand despite a slight decrease in production [6]. - Cobalt prices are likely to continue rising due to tight supply conditions and delayed export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Precious metals are benefiting from liquidity easing, with a focus on companies such as Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Copper - The copper market is experiencing an increase in global inventory, with concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions due to disruptions in mining operations [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum sector is seeing a slight increase in production capacity, with geopolitical tensions contributing to a positive market sentiment [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices have shown significant fluctuations due to supply disruptions and policy changes in Indonesia, with a focus on companies like Huayou Cobalt and Lygend Resources [4]. Tin - Tin prices are influenced by macroeconomic expectations and demand from emerging sectors, with companies like Hunan Tin and Yunnan Tin being highlighted [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are supported by strong demand despite seasonal production declines, with companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium being recommended [6]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and regulatory changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with companies like Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium being of interest [10].

Group 1: Market Liquidity and A-Share Performance - The improvement in market liquidity has been a direct catalyst for the recent rise in A-shares, with margin trading balances increasing by over 125 billion yuan in just half a month, leading to a more than 35% increase in trading volume across the A-share market [3][13][22] - Historical data shows that similar situations, where the A-share market rose by nearly 10% over 16 trading days with trading volume expanding by over 30%, have occurred six times in the past decade, predominantly at the beginning of the year [3][18][22] - The recent surge in the commercial aerospace index has led to a significant increase in turnover rates and trading volume proportions, indicating a potential structural overheating in the market [3][22] Group 2: AI Impact on Employment and Economic Policy - The U.S. job market continues to face pressure, with December's non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, below expectations, and a downward revision of 76,000 jobs for October and November [4][26][33] - The adoption of AI by large U.S. companies has significantly suppressed employment growth, particularly in the information, finance, and professional services sectors, which have collectively lost 344,000 jobs over the past three years [4][26][33] - The Federal Reserve's extended rate-cutting cycle is expected to benefit commodity markets, as inflation concerns related to AI investments are easing [4][40][41] Group 3: Domestic Economic Recovery and Policy Optimization - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial enterprises in December showed a year-on-year increase, indicating a shift from price drag to price support for corporate revenues [5][56] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has also risen, with the core CPI maintaining its highest level in five years, reflecting a smoother transmission of prices from enterprises to consumers [5][56] - The ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to enhance corporate profitability, with regulatory measures aimed at preventing monopolistic practices and promoting fair competition [5][62] Group 4: Rebalancing and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for A-shares, driven by improved liquidity and favorable domestic and international economic conditions [6][63] - Recommended investment areas include industrial resource products like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors benefiting from the recovery of domestic manufacturing and consumer spending [6][63] - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing opportunities in sectors such as aviation, duty-free, and food and beverage, which are expected to benefit from increased consumer income and tourism recovery [6][63]

2026 年 01 月 11 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 属板块景气持续，看好春季行情 金属&新材料行业周报 20250105-20260109 本期投资提示: 信任命 波段人分出品 我研究报 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申万宏源研究微信服务号 o 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 3.82%，深证成指上涨 4.40%，沪深 300 上涨 2.79%，有色金属（申 万) 指数上涨 8.56%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 5.77 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上涨 7.28%，铝上涨 9.12%， 能源金属上涨 6.30%，小金属上涨 11.67%，铜上涨 ...