锂电产业链价格传导
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碳酸锂:产业链价格变动下电芯成本测算
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 00:53
Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the cost calculation of battery cells under the price fluctuations in the lithium carbonate industry chain [1] Group 2: Industry Price Trends - Since the second half of 2025, prices in the lithium battery industry chain have shown significant differentiation, with upstream raw materials being the core driving force for the price increase. Imported lithium concentrate increased by 231.0%, battery - grade lithium carbonate by 160.2%, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide by 147.3%. Cobalt - related raw materials also showed strong growth, with electrolytic cobalt rising 84.4% and cobalt sulfate 90.8% [3] - The price increase pressure of raw materials was transmitted to the cathode material segment, but the increase was significantly narrowed. The increases of lithium iron phosphate and lithium cobalt oxide since the second half of 2025 were 76.3% and 81.2% respectively, and the increases of ternary series precursors and cathode materials were in the range of 30% - 37%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key raw material for electrolytes, increased by over 200%. The price changes in the anode material and separator segments were limited, and the price of 8μm copper foil increased by 28.1% [3] - The price transmission in the downstream battery cell segment lagged significantly behind that of the mid - and upstream segments. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate battery cells decreased slightly by 2.5%, the energy - storage type increased by only 5.4%, and the 811 ternary battery cells increased by only 8.2% [4] Group 3: Battery Cost Changes - Referring to the average lithium price of 75,000 yuan/ton in 2025, the theoretical total cost of lithium iron phosphate battery cells was 0.30 yuan/Wh. The cost of the cathode material lithium iron phosphate was only 0.08 yuan/Wh, and the electrolyte cost was 0.03 yuan/Wh. The cost of copper foil accounted for a similar proportion to the cathode material [19] - When the lithium price rose to 150,000 yuan/ton, the total cost of battery cells increased to 0.39 yuan/Wh (+31% compared to the 2025 average). The cathode cost increased to 0.13 yuan/Wh (+67%), and the electrolyte cost increased by 76%. The contribution of the two lithium - containing main materials to the increase in the theoretical cost of lithium iron phosphate battery cells was 57.5% and 26.1% respectively, and the copper foil cost increased by 20% with a contribution of about 16% [21] - Assuming the cost of non - lithium raw materials is fixed, if the lithium carbonate price further rises to 200,000 yuan/ton or 250,000 yuan/ton, the theoretical battery cost will increase by about 9% and 16% respectively on the basis of 150,000 yuan/ton [21] Group 4: Follow - up Impact - The theoretical cost of lithium iron phosphate battery cells has risen with the recovery of lithium prices, but the adjustment of terminal battery prices lags significantly. As of January 9, the price of SMM's third - party lithium iron phosphate battery cells was only about 6% higher than the 2025 average [26] - The lithium battery industry chain may be entering a price transmission cycle driven by raw material price increases. Suzhou Dejia Energy has announced a 15% increase in battery product prices. If the upstream lithium price remains high, the demand for cost pressure transmission to the terminal will continue to increase, and more battery cell enterprises are expected to follow up with price adjustments [26]