锂电材料行业供需再平衡

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锂电材料行业周报:高镍三元价格持续走弱,负极材料量价同跌-20250616
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-06-16 09:57
Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Maintain "Overweight" [1][60] Core Views - The lithium battery materials industry rebounded by 1.53%, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 1.79 percentage points [3][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) increased by 0.51x to 31.5x, currently at 20.8% of the long-term historical percentile [3][12] - The market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with many segments facing overcapacity and high inventory levels, leading to low profitability [60] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown relative returns of -1%, -8% over three months, and -3% over twelve months, with absolute returns of -2%, -10%, and 7% respectively [2] Positive Material Trends - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate slightly rebounded by 0.25%, while the prices of various ternary precursors continued to decline [4][14] - The price of phosphoric iron lithium remained stable, with production slightly increasing by 0.86% [31] Negative Material Trends - High-nickel ternary material prices continued to decline, with significant downward pressure on the prices of negative electrode materials due to weak downstream demand [6][48] - The production and operating rates of negative electrode materials decreased significantly, with a 2.46% drop in production [48] Electrolyte and Separator Insights - Electrolyte prices remained stable, but production and operating rates continued to decline, indicating a supply surplus [42] - Separator prices remained flat, with a slight increase in production and inventory, but the market remains oversupplied [51][56] Investment Recommendations - The current market conditions suggest that the overall demand is weak, particularly in the power market, while the supply side continues to face overcapacity issues [60] - The industry is expected to maintain a low profitability level, with valuation recovery dependent on marginal profit improvement expectations [60]