2025年07月20日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性空间 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现实与宏观博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 2 | | 工业硅：供需去库，关注上游工厂复产节奏 | 11 | | 多晶硅：政策市场，谨慎持仓 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：反内卷1.0+锂矿2.0政策，关注8月采矿证批复情况 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 20 日 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性空间 不锈钢：现实与宏观博弈，钢价震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：宏观与消息面共振，现实基本面限制弹性。市场涉及有色等重点行业稳增长工作方案即 将出台的消息改善市场风险偏好，政策或着力调结构、优供应、淘汰落后产能，进一步提振整体商品情绪。 同时，印尼 APNI 协会再次建议政府重新评估镍矿的 HPM 公式，纳入矿石中的铁和钴的经济价值，从而可 能 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The "Anti-Involution 1.0 + Lithium Mine 2.0" policy has shifted the upward trend of lithium prices from macro-driven to industry policy-driven. Attention should be paid to the renewal of mining licenses in August. With high position-to-warrant ratios in the 08 and 09 contracts, lithium prices are expected to remain strong [4]. - For unilateral trading, hold positions cautiously, with the futures main contract price expected to range between 55,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [5]. - For inter - delivery spread trading, a positive spread strategy is recommended as there are expectations of mine shutdowns in the near - term [6]. - For hedging, a sell - hedging strategy is suggested, and the sell - hedging ratio should be increased to 80% [7]. Summary by Section 1. Price Trends - The main contracts of lithium carbonate accelerated their upward movement. The 2509 contract closed at 69,960 yuan/ton, up 5,680 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2511 contract closed at 68,620 yuan/ton, up 4,700 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 2,900 yuan/ton to 66,650 yuan/ton. The SMM futures - spot basis (2509 contract) weakened by 2,780 yuan/ton to - 3,310 yuan/ton. The Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was +90 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2509 - 2511 contract spread was 1,340 yuan/ton, up 980 yuan/ton week - on - week [1]. 2. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Supply - In Jiangxi, the National Audit Office pointed out that 8 lithium - related mineral rights had issues of evading superior department approval and handling transfer, change, or renewal registration procedures without proper authorization. In Qinghai, Golmud Zangge Potash Co., Ltd. was required to stop illegal lithium resource development and rectify. Against this background, lithium carbonate prices rose, driving up lithium ore prices. Lithium concentrate rose to $711/ton, and 1.5 - 2.0% lithium mica rose to 945 yuan/ton. In the short term, lithium carbonate production continued to increase, reaching 19,115 tons this week, up 302 tons or 1.61% week - on - week [2]. Demand - The inventory accumulation speed of downstream cathode materials slowed down. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate was 95,000 tons, up 1.0% week - on - week, and the inventory of ternary materials was 16,000 tons, up 1.6% week - on - week. Affected by the new energy rush - to - install, the grid - connection peak of new energy storage projects in the first half of the year was advanced to before May 31, and the grid - connection enthusiasm on June 30 declined for the first time. In June 2025, the newly installed capacity of domestic new energy storage projects was 2.33GW/5.63GWh, a year - on - year decrease of 65%/66% and a month - on - month decrease of 71%/72% [3]. Inventory - The total social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to increase, mainly concentrated in the trading sector. The lithium carbonate inventory was 143,000 tons, up 1,827 tons from last week. The number of futures warrants decreased by 1,364 tons to 10,239 tons [3]. 3. Market Data - The report provides various price data of the lithium industry chain, including lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, along with their price changes [13]. - Multiple charts show historical data on lithium ore prices, production, imports, lithium salt prices, production, inventory, and downstream product production and consumption [9][15][21]