Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc price increase still needs to test the sustainability of zinc consumption resilience. Although the micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish and the macro - environment remains positive, the overseas mine inventory is still high. [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $171.09/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On October 29, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,355 yuan/ton and closed at 22,430 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 114,143 lots, and the open interest was 118,849 lots. The highest price was 22,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,320 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 29, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,500 tons, up 0.14 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,200 tons, down 50 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Smelters have strong demand for ore procurement, and TC at the ore end is expected to decline further. Although the import loss of imported ore is still significant, the TC of imported ore has also started to decline. The domestic supply pressure remains, but the smelting profit is compressed. If TC continues to decline, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. [4] - The export window is fully open, and the LME spot premium remains high. However, the uncertainty of delivery restrains the export enthusiasm, and the overseas inventory is difficult to show a trend increase, with the existence of warehouse receipt risk suppression. [4]