1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent trend of non - ferrous metals shows a recovery from a low level, but with the easing of the Iranian situation and the decline in energy prices, non - ferrous metals have also adjusted moderately. There is still long - term demand growth and supply constraints in the non - ferrous metals market. The core concern of investors has shifted from short - term inflation panic caused by soaring energy prices to deep concerns about long - term economic stagnation or recession. The impact of high oil prices on non - ferrous metals may be phased. The main focus of the market in the future will be the assessment and changes of the duration of the geopolitical conflict and the Strait blockade. The change in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation also has an impact on the market [13]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different market logics and trends. For example, copper is expected to recover in the medium - to - long term due to factors such as inflation expectations and the entry of downstream consumption into the peak season; zinc is in a state of shock consolidation; the aluminum industry chain has different trends for different products such as aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy; tin is in a state of shock and is recommended to be observed or take a long - biased approach; lead is in a state of shock and can be considered to go long at low prices after the macro - impact weakens; nickel and stainless steel are in a state of adjustment, and can be considered to go long at low prices when the macro - sentiment eases [3][5][6][8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: Non - ferrous metals have shown a recovery from a low level, but have adjusted moderately with the easing of the Iranian situation and the decline in energy prices. The market's focus has shifted from short - term inflation panic to concerns about long - term economic stagnation. The impact of high oil prices on non - ferrous metals is phased. The main concerns in the future are the geopolitical conflict and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [13]. - **Variety - Specific Analysis**: - **Copper**: Powell's dovish statement reduces the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike this year, and the rise in gold and silver prices boosts copper prices. However, concerns about the US economic stagflation limit the rebound space of copper. In the medium - to - long term, rising oil prices push up inflation expectations, and copper prices are expected to rise. The supply of copper concentrates is still tight globally, but domestic smelters' production is not significantly restricted. Downstream demand is in the peak season, and the inventory is expected to enter the destocking cycle in April. It is recommended to go long at low prices and use options strategies [3][15]. - **Zinc**: The Iranian geopolitical situation may ease, and energy prices are adjusted. Powell's dovish statement boosts the expectation of an interest rate cut. The import ore TC continues to decline, and the domestic ore TC remains flat. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the downstream starts to show differentiation. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to the geopolitical situation, inflation expectations, and demand [5][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum production capacity in the Middle East is disturbed, and the strong US dollar suppresses the non - ferrous metal market. It is recommended to buy on dips. Different products in the aluminum industry chain, such as aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy, have different price ranges and strategies [6][7][17]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin market is in a weak shock under the pressure of the US dollar. It is recommended to observe or take a long - biased approach, pay attention to the capital sentiment, the situation of the ore end, and the macro - environment. Options can be used for protection [8][18]. - **Lead**: The geopolitical situation is repeated, and energy prices fall. The supply of primary and secondary lead increases, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory shows a slight decrease. It is recommended to go long at low prices after the macro - impact weakens and pay attention to the demand recovery and inventory changes [9][18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Iranian geopolitical situation may ease, and energy prices are adjusted. Powell's dovish statement boosts the expectation of an interest rate cut. The implementation of Indonesia's nickel windfall tax and export tax is delayed. The supply of nickel ore is strong, and the demand is weak. Stainless steel is in a state of adjustment, and it is recommended to go long at low prices when the macro - sentiment eases [10][18][19]. Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [20]. Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The report shows the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, and changes in net long and net short positions of each variety, as well as the influencing factors [23]. Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The report provides the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [24][25]. Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain The report presents various charts related to the non - ferrous metals industry chain, including the inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [26][28][31][36][40][42][44][48]. Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage The report shows various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the changes in the Shanghai - London ratio, the basis, and the spread of different varieties such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [50][52][54][59][61][63][64]. Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options The report presents various charts related to non - ferrous metals options, including the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and position changes of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [66][70][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic recovery in Q1 is evident, with the March PMI returning to the expansion range, but there are still structural contradictions and risks from geopolitical conflicts [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience [3]. - The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but remains volatile due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [6]. - The container shipping market for European routes is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [9]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic policies, and their trends vary [11][12][16][22][26][30][36][40][55][59][65] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: In January - February, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 2.0%. The situation in the Middle East is tense, with the US and Iran having complex interactions. The central bank's monetary policy committee held its Q1 meeting, and Japan warned about the yen's decline. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI all returned to the expansion range [1]. - **South China's Viewpoint**: China's economic recovery is certain, but there are structural problems and risks from geopolitical conflicts. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience. The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but volatile. The bond market is expected to remain volatile [2][3][5][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.85 [4]. Commodities New Energy - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of the main contract decreased by 8.40% day - on - day. The downstream enterprises maintain a strategy of replenishing inventory at low prices. In the short - term, price fluctuations are large due to macro - level factors, but the long - term demand growth logic remains unchanged [11]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The silicon - based industrial chain is under pressure. Industrial silicon fluctuates widely between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and polysilicon is still in a downward channel but with a narrowing decline [12][13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The domestic and foreign aluminum markets show a pattern of "strong aluminum and weak alumina". The macro - environment and fundamentals are in a game, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate within a range [16][17][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounds due to the possible easing of the war situation. The market shows a pattern of "external strength and internal weakness", and the price is affected by multiple factors such as inventory and supply [18][19][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure level [22]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [22][23][24]. - **Tin**: The tin price rebounds and then enters a wait - and - see state. The main contradiction lies in the macro - level, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [24]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [25]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The USDA planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area is unexpectedly reduced, which supports the external market. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired [26][27]. - **Oils**: The Indonesian government's B50 policy is expected to be implemented, which boosts the palm oil market. The domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories are sufficient but in a de - stocking trend, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [27][28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The crude oil price drops due to the news of a possible cease - fire. The market is affected by multiple factors, and there is still great uncertainty [30][31]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakens, and the low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium drops significantly. The shortage of blending components still supports the price [31][32]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is reduced, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to position control [32][33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium are oscillating strongly. The market is affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed monetary policy, and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [36][37]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rise strongly. The market is affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, Fed monetary policy, and economic data. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [37][38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is affected by geopolitical factors and inventory. The offset paper futures price is relatively stable. It is recommended to trade pulp futures in the short - term and try low - buying strategies for offset paper [40][41]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is supported by the expected geopolitical premium and the slowdown of inventory accumulation. It is expected to be in a short - term range - bound and strong trend [42][43]. - **PP and Propylene**: The prices of PP and propylene are affected by the Middle East situation and supply - demand relationships. The supply is expected to be reduced, and the demand is limited. The prices are expected to be supported [43][44][46]. - **Plastic**: The plastic price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. The supply is tightened, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [47]. - **Rubber**: The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber are rising. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical impacts [48][51][52]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is under pressure, and the demand is relatively stable. The inventory performance is better than expected. The price is expected to be affected by supply - demand relationships and macro - factors [55][56]. - **Glass**: The glass market is affected by factors such as cold - repair expectations, high inventory, and cost. The price is expected to be limited by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to macro - and emotional factors [58]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is supported by the cost of furnace materials, but the high inventory and weak supply - demand limit the upward space. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited height [59][60]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is a mix of long and short factors. The price is supported by cost and spot tightness in the short - term but is suppressed by demand and supply increment expectations in the long - term [61]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price drops due to weak market sentiment and over - valuation. The supply is abundant, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to have limited downward space after risk release [62][63]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fall back. The cost support logic still exists, and silicon manganese may be stronger than silicon iron [63][64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The pig price continues to bottom out. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract or be bearish on the far - month contracts [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The expected US cotton planting area is higher than expected. The new - season global supply is expected to decrease, but the inflation in the US and the high domestic - foreign cotton price spread may limit the price. The short - term price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [66][67]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is expected to be in a short - term oscillation pattern due to the tense Middle East situation and cautious market sentiment [67][69]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to be stable and slightly strong before the festival, with limited upward space. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract [69]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price is expected to be strongly oscillating, supported by the scarcity of delivery products in the 05 contract [78]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as inventory and oil mill demand [79][80][81]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation and bottom - building pattern due to the loose supply - demand relationship [80][82]. - **Logs**: The log futures price falls due to the easing of geopolitical sentiment. The price is supported by factors such as inventory consumption and stable import costs, and it is recommended to trade in the range [82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium - term, despite short - term downward pressure from inventory and geopolitical factors. It believes copper has demand growth and supply constraints in the current market environment [1]. - Aluminum is expected to have relative advantages among non - ferrous metals. Supply - side factors may drive short - term trading, and the fundamentals are improving [1]. - Zinc has a general domestic fundamental situation, but there are potential risks of production cuts overseas due to long - term capital investment limitations and supply disruptions [2]. - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, with a weak short - term reality but potential supply - side support from policy interventions [3][4]. - Stainless steel is expected to follow nickel's trend and trade in a range, with a generally weak fundamental situation [7]. - Lead is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, influenced by overseas inventory and recycling profit support [8][9]. - Tin's price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, it has strong upward potential; if liquidity tightens, it may decline [12]. - Industrial silicon's price is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term due to over - capacity [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price is macro - driven, and there is a high probability of spot shortages in the second quarter, but the upside space needs further factors to open up [17]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices rebounded to the 95,000 - 96,000 RMB range this week. The domestic scrap copper supply is expected to remain tight, which may lead to further depletion of refined copper inventory. The LME inventory decreased by 175 tons, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 350 tons from March 25 to March 31 [1]. - **Demand and Outlook**: High - end demand for refined copper has been strong after the Spring Festival. Although Goldman Sachs has significantly lowered the consumption growth rate of domestic electrolytic copper in 2026, the report believes the substitution of aluminum for copper is debatable. The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium - term and suggests paying attention to the support around 96,000 RMB next week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices increased by 80 RMB from March 25 to March 31. The overseas premium increased, the visible inventory decreased, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and the aluminum rod processing fee rebounded [1]. - **Supply and Outlook**: The production capacity of aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain was affected, leading to a further decline in the global electrolytic aluminum production growth rate. Supply - side trading is expected to become the main focus in the short - term, and the export processing of aluminum plants is expected to be more prosperous [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices increased slightly, and the inventory remained stable. The import profit of zinc decreased, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 775 tons from March 25 to March 31 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight. The domestic fundamental situation is general, but there are potential risks of production cuts overseas [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices decreased. The domestic inventory continued to accumulate, and the LME inventory decreased slightly. The spot and futures import earnings fluctuated [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of pure nickel decreased in February. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to trade in a range due to the weak fundamental situation and potential supply - side policy support [3][4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: The prices of stainless steel products remained stable. The inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill production decreased slightly. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to trade in a range following the nickel price [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: The lead price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The spot social inventory decreased by nearly 20,000 tons this week, and the LME inventory decreased by 1300 tons from March 25 to March 31 [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of primary lead production is sufficient, and the secondary lead production is expected to be delayed. The battery operating rate has recovered, and the monthly dealer battery inventory has decreased [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices fluctuated. The domestic processing fee has a slight upward trend. The LME inventory increased by 35 tons from March 25 to March 31 [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to recover in the second quarter, but there are supply - side risks. The demand is relatively stable, and the price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon changed, and the warehouse receipts increased. The supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs [13][15]. - **Supply and Outlook**: The overall operation rate of factories in the north and south has little change. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom due to over - capacity [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The lithium carbonate price increased first and then decreased. The basis and warehouse receipts changed significantly. The spot trading volume decreased this week [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The raw material supply is tight, and the lithium salt enterprises are holding prices. The downstream procurement is at a low level. There is a high probability of spot shortages in the second quarter, but the upside space needs further factors to open up [17].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The March PMI returned to expansion, indicating a recovery in supply and demand, influenced by seasonal factors and a positive outlook from the National People's Congress [5] - The rise in the raw material purchase price index suggests a potential shift in PPI from negative to positive, but this may pressure corporate profit margins if the increase outpaces factory prices [5] - The first quarter GDP growth is expected to be at least 4.8%-5%, indicating a strong start to the year despite geopolitical tensions [5] Group 2: Energy Sector - China Shenhua (601088.SH) reported a 2025 revenue of 294.9 billion yuan, a 13.2% decline, with a net profit of 52.8 billion yuan, down 5.3% [11] - Huaneng International (600011.SH) achieved a revenue of 229.29 billion yuan, a 6.62% decline, but net profit increased by 42.17% due to reduced fuel costs [13] - New Energy (600956.SH) is expected to see revenue growth driven by efficient wind power operations, with projected revenues of 223.01 billion yuan in 2026 [24] Group 3: Consumer Goods - Midea Group (000333.SZ) reported a revenue of 458.5 billion yuan in 2025, a 12.08% increase, with a net profit of 43.945 billion yuan, up 14.03% [16] - Anqi Yeast (600298.SH) achieved a revenue of 119.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a 10.1% increase in its main business, indicating strong sales growth [22] - East Peak Beverage (605499.SH) reported a revenue of 208.75 billion yuan, a 31.80% increase, with a net profit of 44.15 billion yuan, up 32.72% [30] Group 4: Textile and Apparel - The sportswear sector is expected to see steady growth in 2025, with Anta Sports reporting a revenue of 80.22 billion yuan, a 13.3% increase [8] - Shenzhou International (02313.HK) reported a revenue of 30.99 billion yuan, an 8% increase, but net profit declined by 7% [29] Group 5: Technology and AI - Longxin Technology (300682.SZ) reported a revenue of 4.517 billion yuan, a 0.84% increase, with net profit rising by 141.94% [18] - Baoxin Software (600845.SH) experienced a revenue decline of 19.59% to 10.972 billion yuan, but is expected to benefit from AI trends [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is the core focus of the market, affecting global risk preferences, inflation expectations, and the performance of various asset classes. The market is shifting from short - term inflation panic to concerns about medium - term economic recession[4][8][11]. - Different industries are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Some industries are expected to have short - term price support or upward trends, while others may face downward pressure or remain in a state of shock[14][16][19]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The attack on Iran's Qeshm Island, large - scale investment in AI data centers and technology R & D, stable helium supply in South Korea, and the good performance of Zhipu API platform[2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis annualized ratios[3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences. The market is shifting from inflation panic to recession concerns. It is recommended to pay attention to the war situation and control risks[4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed on Tuesday. China's March PMI data showed an improvement in manufacturing and non - manufacturing industries. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and maintained liquidity[5][6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery in the first quarter is expected, but the pressure on the profit side and inflation may affect the bond market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term[8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and international markets rose. The Fed emphasized inflation control, and the US - Iran conflict situation changed[9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict is still the focus. The short - term pressure on precious metals has eased, but long - term inflation expectations need to be vigilant. It is recommended to wait and see[11]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded, LME and domestic inventories decreased, and the spot discount narrowed[13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper ore is tight, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. The copper price is expected to fluctuate[14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fluctuated, the inventory increased, and the spot discount remained[15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand is improving. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term[16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, and the downstream replenished inventory after the price decline[17][18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has stopped falling in the short term, but the follow - up purchase may be limited. The zinc price is in a downward trend and may continue to decline[19]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price rose slightly, and the inventory increased[20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot of lead has short - term support, but the high沪伦 ratio and the overall pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector may lead to a further decline in the lead price[20]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fell, and the cost and nickel iron price were stable[21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term but has strong support in the medium term. It is recommended to operate within a range[21]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand showed different trends[22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is limited, and the demand is weakly recovering. The tin price is expected to fluctuate[23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate fell, and the contract position decreased[24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The resource - end contradiction is prominent. The short - term supply is slightly eased, but the uncertainty is still high. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, the position increased, and the inventory increased[25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, and the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but remains in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see[26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price fell, the inventory increased, and the raw material price was stable[27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is stable, the terminal consumption is slightly better than expected, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term[28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, the position decreased, and the inventory decreased[29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, the demand is expected to improve, and the price has strong support in the short term[30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell, and the inventory decreased[32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, but there is no trend - upward driving force. It is necessary to pay attention to demand and raw material prices[33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell, and the position decreased[34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore is affected by weather and other factors, and the demand is expected to increase. The ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level[35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell, and the spot prices were at a premium[36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate in the short term or wait and see[38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the inventory decreased[39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot trading is light, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly[40]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased[41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is tightened in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is in a narrow - range adjustment[41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell, and the technical forms were weak[42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the inventory and demand were weak[45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon change little, and the price is expected to fluctuate[46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon price fell, and the inventory was high[47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon is in a negative - feedback adjustment state, and the price is expected to continue to find the bottom[48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber. The tire industry has different operating rates and inventory situations[50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly, take profit on call options, and configure put options. Hold the hedging position[53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude oil and refined oil futures fell[54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term short positions in crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread[55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price rose, and the MTO profit changed[56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol has included the geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profit at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices[57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price changed slightly, and the futures price fell[58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices[59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the supply and demand indicators showed different trends[61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and the supply and demand are in a complex situation. It is recommended to wait and see[62]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand indicators changed[63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise profit is high, but there are supply reduction expectations. The domestic demand is under pressure, and the export situation is complex[64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is recovering, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to risks[66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, the inventory increased, and the processing fee changed[67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Pay attention to risks[68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but pay attention to risks[71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has room to decline. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume increases[73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, the inventory decreased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure of PP is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term is affected by production mismatch[75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price mostly fell, and the supply was abundant[77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply improvement is limited, and it is recommended to short on rebounds[78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price mostly fell, and the supply was stable[79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is sufficient, but the short - term price is strong. It is recommended to short on rebounds and hold short positions in the far - end contracts[80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China and soybean export and import data were announced[81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of protein meal fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see[83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia's policies on palm oil and relevant production, export, and inventory data were announced[84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to rise in the medium term due to the US - Iran event[85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production and export data of sugar in different countries were announced[86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the unstable international oil price, it is recommended to wait and see the sugar price[87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China, cotton import data, and production and consumption data were announced[88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trump's visit is short - term positive for US cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips, but pay attention to the risk of the US - Iran event[89].

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for March 2026 is 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion[1] - The production index recorded 51.4%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, while the new orders index reached 51.6%, up 3.0 percentage points, marking the first time in 23 months that new orders exceeded production[3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand recovery is stronger than production, with new orders showing significant improvement driven by high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods[1][4] - New export orders increased by 4.1 percentage points to 49.1%, the highest since May 2024, indicating resilient external demand despite geopolitical tensions[3] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchase price index rose to 63.9%, a significant increase of 9.1 percentage points, while the factory price index increased to 55.4%, up 4.6 percentage points[4][6] - Brent crude oil averaged $98.71 per barrel in March, up 42% month-on-month, contributing to rising costs in logistics and raw materials[6] Inventory and Procurement - The procurement index rose to 50.9%, indicating a return to expansion, while raw materials inventory index remained at 47.7%, indicating a cautious approach to inventory replenishment[7] - Finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.7%, reflecting limited recovery in stock levels despite improved procurement activities[7] Sector Performance - The PMI for high-tech manufacturing reached 52.1%, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors recorded PMIs of 51.5% and 50.8%, respectively, indicating broad-based sectoral recovery[4][8] - Small and medium enterprises showed marginal improvement, with PMIs of 49.3% and 49.0%, respectively, still below the expansion threshold[8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Lead 3 Monthly Report, R & D Report of Non - ferrous Metals Sector [10][22][28] - Report date: March 31, 2026 [10][22][28] Group 2: Core View - The supply - demand contradiction of lead is not prominent, and the lead price may maintain a range - bound oscillation [4] Group 3: Fundamental Situation Lead Ore and Supply - Global lead concentrate production is presented in figures measured in thousands of tons [26] - Lead concentrate import profit and loss, import volume, domestic production, and total supply are shown in figures, with import volume in ten thousand physical tons and production in ten thousand tons [33][36] - The price of lead - containing waste and waste batteries is presented in figures measured in yuan per ton [45] Refined Lead - Global refined lead production, demand, and balance are presented in figures measured in thousands of tons [47][48] - China's electrolytic lead monthly production is presented in figures measured in ten thousand tons [55] - The monthly total and scale - divided start - up rates of primary lead smelting, lead concentrate processing fees, and primary lead smelting profit are presented in figures, with the start - up rate in percentage and profit in yuan per ton [57][59] - The monthly total and scale - divided start - up rates, cost, production profit, and monthly output of secondary lead smelting are presented in figures, with the start - up rate in percentage, cost and profit in yuan per ton, and output in ten thousand tons [65][70][72] - Refined lead import and export profit and loss, import and export volume are presented in figures, with profit and loss in yuan per ton and volume in ten thousand tons [76][78] - Domestic lead ingot total supply and monthly apparent consumption are presented in figures measured in ten thousand tons [81] - Domestic lead concentrate and lead ingot supply data from 2025 to 2026 are presented in a table, including production, net import volume, total supply, etc., with production and supply in ten thousand tons and growth rate in percentage [84] Downstream Demand - SMM lead - acid battery monthly and weekly start - up rates are presented in figures [87] - Lead - acid battery import and export are presented in figures [92] - Lead - acid battery enterprise and dealer monthly finished product inventory days are presented in figures [93] - Automobile, new energy vehicle, motorcycle production, and automobile export, new energy vehicle export are presented in figures [97][105][111] - Power project investment completion amount, communication base station construction volume, and lead alloy import and export are presented in figures [113][115] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The report has a section on market outlook and strategy recommendation, but specific content is not provided in the given text [123]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices closed 0.43% lower overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall. Power investment is stable, while auto production and sales, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market is persistently weak. Copper prices may fluctuate in a wide range in the short term [2]. - Zinc prices closed 0.47% higher overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight. Smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, auto production and sales are in positive growth, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market is persistently weak. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [2]. 3. Summary of Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Market Basis Data | Variety | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 95,700 | -65 | | Aluminum | 24,640 | -100 | | Zinc | 23,480 | -95 | | Nickel | 136,540 | -1,770 | | Lead | 16,465 | -70 | | Tin | 369,790 | -4,030 | [2] 3.2 LME Spot Premium/Discount Data | Variety | Previous LME 3 - month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 12,195 | -82.55 | | Aluminum | 3,445 | 47.21 | | Zinc | 3,182 | -0.68 | | Nickel | 17,325 | -201.58 | | Lead | 1,912 | -31.20 | | Tin | 46,160 | -165.00 | [2] 3.3 LME Inventory Data | Variety | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 360,250 | 425 | | Aluminum | 420,875 | -2,200 | | Zinc | 115,375 | -275 | | Nickel | 281,574 | -666 | | Lead | 283,075 | -25 | | Tin | 8,720 | 0 | [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran continues to impact the global market, leading to increased inflation expectations and affecting the price trends of various assets. The market is concerned about the potential for stagflation and recession, with different sectors showing varying degrees of response [4][8][11]. - The economic data in China from January to February showed improvement, but the sustainability of the economic recovery remains to be seen, and domestic demand still requires support from stable household income and policies [8]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some industries are affected by supply shortages, while others are influenced by weak demand or geopolitical factors [14][16][32]. 3. Summary by Catalog Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The US is reported to be discussing sending troops into Iran to extract about 450 kg of highly enriched uranium; Zhongke Aerospace's Lijian - 2 Yaoyi launch vehicle had a successful maiden flight; Kweichow Moutai adjusted the sales contract price and retail price of Feitian 53%vol 500ml liquor; Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue and net profit in 2025 increased significantly year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy View**: The conflict between the US and Iran has disturbed global risk appetite, increasing inflation expectations and causing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations to fade. Traders' expectations of an interest - rate hike have exceeded 50%. In China, the narrowing of PPI and strong profitability of industrial enterprises at the beginning of the year are noted. Attention should be paid to the change in the war situation and risk control [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different degrees of change. The US President said that Iran had agreed to "most of the content" of the "15 - point cease - fire plan". The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on anti - unfair competition [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 2695 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 80 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due on the same day, the net investment was 2615 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in the first two months improved, but the sustainability of the economic recovery needs to be observed. The geopolitical conflict in Iran has led to concerns about imported inflation, and the inflation pressure may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [8]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose, while COMEX gold rose slightly and COMEX silver fell. Powell made dovish remarks, and Iran's stance on the negotiation and the new regulations on the Strait of Hormuz increased the risk of global energy supply [9][10]. - **Strategy View**: Geopolitical conflicts remain the focus of the market. Powell's dovish remarks have temporarily eased the pressure on precious metals, but long - term inflation expectations still need to be watched. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, with the reference operating range of Shanghai gold at 950 - 1100 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver at 15000 - 20500 yuan/kilogram [11]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: The copper price rose first and then fell. LME inventory increased, and domestic social inventory decreased. The spot premium in different regions changed, and the import was profitable [13]. - **Strategy View**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has suppressed the copper price, but the tight supply of copper ore and the reduction of scrap copper substitution support the price. The copper price is expected to decline in a volatile manner [14]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Concerns about supply contraction in the Middle East pushed up the aluminum price. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods changed, and the LME inventory decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic downstream demand is improving. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Zinc - **Market News**: The zinc price rose slightly. The inventory and basis of zinc in different markets changed, and the import was at a loss [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized in the short term, but the follow - up purchase may not be sustainable. The zinc price is in a downward trend and may decline further after wide - range consolidation [18]. Lead - **Market News**: The lead price fell slightly. The inventory and basis of lead in different markets changed, and the import was profitable [19]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term support at the spot end is obtained, but the high Shanghai - London ratio and the pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector may lead to a further decline in the lead price [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose slightly. The spot premium and cost of nickel changed slightly [20]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken, but in the medium term, the bottom support is strong. It is recommended to operate within a range [20]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price rose. The production and demand of tin changed, and the inventory decreased significantly [21]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery. The tin price is expected to be weak, with the reference operating range of domestic main contracts at 320000 - 400000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin at 41000 - 50000 US dollars/ton [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The futures price and spot premium changed [23]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply shortage of lithium salt has eased, but the trend of inventory reduction needs to be observed. The demand for lithium batteries is expected to be strong. The reference operating range of the 2605 contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 162000 - 180000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The basis, overseas price, and inventory changed [24]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price is expected to rise in the short term, but the long - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, with the reference operating range of the main contract AO2605 at 2850 - 3050 yuan/ton [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless - steel price fell slightly. The spot price, basis, and inventory changed [26]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of stainless steel is stable, and the terminal consumption exceeds expectations. The market is expected to be strong in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract at 14150 - 14600 yuan/ton [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume and inventory changed [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has recovered, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The registered warehouse receipts and positions changed [31]. - **Strategy View**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, and the inventory has been gradually reduced, but there is no trend - driving force. Attention should be paid to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations [32]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron - ore price rose slightly. The positions and basis changed [33]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas ore shipment has decreased, and the demand for iron ore is expected to increase. The port inventory has decreased. The iron - ore price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [34]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market News**: The coking - coal price fell slightly, and the coke price rose slightly. The spot price and basis changed [35]. - **Strategy View**: The black - building materials sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate short - term or stay on the sidelines, and pay attention to the geopolitical situation and oil - price changes [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: The glass price fell slightly. The spot price and inventory changed [38][39]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock pattern. The supply contraction and cost support may form a certain bottom, but the terminal demand needs to be observed [39]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: The soda - ash price fell. The spot price and inventory changed [40]. - **Strategy View**: The soda - ash market is in a game between short - term supply contraction and weak demand, and the price is in a narrow - range consolidation [40]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The spot price and basis changed [41]. - **Strategy View**: The black - building materials sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. Attention should be paid to the cost of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: The industrial - silicon price fell. The positions and basis changed [45]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly, and the price is expected to be in a volatile state [46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: The polysilicon price rose. The positions and basis changed [47]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon market is in a negative - feedback adjustment state, and the price is expected to continue to find the bottom in a volatile manner [48]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market News**: The price of butadiene is strong, and the market of natural rubber has different views on the rise and fall [50][51]. - **Strategy View**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly, take profits on butadiene rubber call options, and hold the hedging position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [54]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The price of crude oil and related refined products rose [55]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to configure short - term short positions in crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - WTI cross - regional spread [56]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price rose, and the MTO profit decreased [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [58]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price changed slightly [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short - sell urea. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term demand support [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The cost, supply, and demand changed [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to the large geopolitical influence on the market [62]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell. The cost, supply, and demand changed [63]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term fundamental supply shock is not fully reflected. The price is expected to rise before the Iranian issue is resolved, but attention should be paid to risks [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene - glycol price rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [65][67]. - **Strategy View**: The industry load is expected to decline, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [68]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell. The load, inventory, and processing fee changed [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [69]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The p - xylene price fell. The load, inventory, and valuation changed [70]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [71][72]. Polyethylene PE - **Market News**: The PE price rose. The spot price, basis, and inventory changed [73]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [74]. Polypropylene PP - **Market News**: The PP price fell. The spot price, basis, and inventory changed [75]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost end to the production mismatch [76]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The domestic pig price was stable with slight fluctuations. The slaughter volume was average [78]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - side improvement is limited. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and pay attention to profit - taking [79]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply was normal, and the market sales slowed down [80]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is sufficient, but the small - egg supply is tight. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - end contracts and short - sell on rebounds in the near - end contracts [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Trump plans to visit China, and the US soybean export and domestic soybean arrival and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy View**: The price of protein meal fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Indonesia plans to increase the palm - oil blending ratio in biodiesel, and the production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in different regions changed [85]. - **Strategy View**: The price of oils and fats is expected to rise in the medium term due to the influence of the US - Iran event [86]. Sugar - **Market News**: The production, export, and import data of sugar in different regions changed. The proportion of sugarcane used for ethanol production in Brazil increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to the unstable international oil price [88]. Cotton - **Market News**: Trump plans to visit China, and the import, export, and production data of cotton changed [89]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's visit is short - term positive for US cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips, but attention should be paid to the risk of the US - Iran event [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of ongoing negotiations and conflicts in the Middle East, market news and tense expectations have pushed up energy commodity prices, leading to increasing inflation expectations. There are bets on the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which would depress the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. - Fundamentally, the supply and demand of Shanghai copper were relatively loose in March, with high production and a recovering demand. However, production will decline after the second quarter due to smelter maintenance, while demand has entered the peak season, and the smooth reduction of inventory will support copper prices. In the long - term, the tight supply situation still supports copper prices. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro aspect**: US President Trump is considering a high - risk military operation in Iran, which has pushed up oil prices and reignited inflation pressure. Some dovish officials have sent hawkish signals, suggesting that the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle that started in September 2024 may have ended. [3] - **Supply aspect**: Japan's Mitsubishi Materials will stop copper concentrate processing at its Onahama smelter by the end of March 2027, shrinking global copper smelting capacity. The weekly capacity utilization rate of recycled copper smelting copper anode sample enterprises is 32.76%, a 2.76% decrease from the previous period. The refined - scrap copper price difference has weakened, reducing the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and smelter profits have declined. In March, SMM's estimated output of electrolytic copper in China increased by 5.28 tons month - on - month (4.62% increase) and 6.51% year - on - year. Many copper smelters have maintenance plans in the second quarter, which will lead to a decline in output. Currently, overseas copper inventories are high, and after the import window opens, import volume may increase to offset the reduction in domestic smelter output. [3] - **Demand aspect**: As of February 2026, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.1739 million tons, a 9.07% decrease from the previous month. Since the "Golden March and Silver April" period, copper prices have been weak, and downstream purchase orders have increased. From January 1 to 22 in March, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 920,000 units, a 16% year - on - year decrease; the retail sales of the new - energy market were 495,000 units, a 17% year - on - year decrease. In February, the installed capacity of new - energy vehicle power batteries decreased by 19.2% year - on - year, but the average battery capacity per vehicle increased by 29.2% year - on - year. [3] 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly. The weekly high was 96,590 yuan/ton, the low was 91,500 yuan/ton, the weekly change was +1.26%, and the range amplitude was 5.37%. [6] 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of March 27, the average spot premium in East China was - 85 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 105 yuan/ton. With the continuous arrival of imported copper, domestic spot suppliers sold off, and the spot discount strengthened. However, it is expected that domestic supply will tighten this week, and with the approaching Tomb - Sweeping Festival, downstream enterprises have the intention to stock up, so the discount is expected to gradually narrow. [11] 3.4 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of March 27, LME copper fell 0.11% this week, closing at $12,115/ton, with a spot premium of - $69/ton. [16] 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a 6.0% year - on - year increase and a 12.0% month - on - month decrease. From January to February 2026, China imported 4.934 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a 4.9% year - on - year increase. Japan's Mitsubishi Materials will stop copper concentrate processing at its Onahama smelter by the end of March 2027, shrinking global copper smelting capacity. [20] 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply - The "Notice on Issues Concerning the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" (Document No. 770) has deepened the reform of the scrap copper industry, canceling measures such as tax rebates, land concessions, and financial subsidies in investment promotion by local governments. This has increased the production pressure on scrap - copper rod enterprises, and many enterprises in Jiangxi and Anhui have cut production or stopped production, resulting in a decrease in national scrap copper output. The weekly capacity utilization rate of recycled copper smelting copper anode sample enterprises is 32.76%, a 2.76% decrease from the previous period. This week, the refined - scrap copper price difference has weakened, reducing the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and smelter profits have declined, weakening enterprise production enthusiasm. [25] 3.7 Smelter Fees - As of March 27, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $69.2/ton, and the RC fee was - 7.00 cents/pound. Overseas mines continue to tighten, and spot smelting fees continue to weaken. It is expected that copper smelters will start maintenance plans in the second quarter, and domestic electrolytic copper output may decline. Currently, smelters mainly rely on by - products such as sulfuric acid to make up for losses, and it is difficult to see an improvement in smelter spot processing fees in the short term. [30] 3.8 Refined Copper Supply - In March, SMM's estimated output of electrolytic copper in China increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month (4.62% increase) and 6.51% year - on - year. The cumulative output from January to March increased by 10.11% year - on - year, an increase of 322,800 tons. Although the copper mine resources are currently tight and recycled copper is restricted by policy issues, the production of electrolytic copper has not been directly affected, and copper prices continue to be under pressure. The increase in March production is mainly due to the previous production cuts by smelters and the addition of new smelters. Many copper smelters have maintenance plans in the second quarter, which will lead to a decline in output. Currently, overseas copper inventories are high, and after the import window opens, import volume may increase to offset the reduction in domestic smelter output. In February, China imported 320,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a 24.5% year - on - year decrease; from January to February, the cumulative import was 700,000 tons, a 16.1% year - on - year decrease. [35] 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of February 2026, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.1739 million tons, a 9.07% decrease from the previous month. [39] 3.10 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of February, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in the country was 3.95 billion kilowatts, a 15.9% year - on - year increase. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.23 billion kilowatts, a 33.2% year - on - year increase; the installed capacity of wind power was 650 million kilowatts, a 22.8% year - on - year increase. From January to February, the cumulative average utilization of power generation equipment in the country was 466 hours, a 39 - hour decrease from the same period last year. [47] 3.11 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - In February 2026, the month - on - month decline in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to narrow, and the year - on - year decline continued. The number of cities with month - on - month increases or flat prices of newly built commercial residential buildings increased compared with the previous month. From January to February, the national real estate sales area, investment, new construction area, and completion area were 92.93 million square meters, 961.2 billion yuan, 50.84 million square meters, and 63.2 million square meters respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 13.5%, - 11.1%, - 23.1%, and - 27.9% respectively. The growth rates were - 6.7%, +6.1%, - 2.7%, and - 9.8% respectively compared with the whole year of 2025. From January to February, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a 11.1% year - on - year decrease, and the decline was 6.1 percentage points narrower than that of the whole year of the previous year; among them, residential investment was 728.2 billion yuan, a 10.7% decrease, and the decline was 5.6 percentage points narrower. [52] 3.12 Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data - From March 1 to 22, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 920,000 units, a 16% year - on - year decrease; the retail sales of the new - energy market were 495,000 units, a 17% year - on - year decrease. In February, the installed capacity of new - energy vehicle power batteries decreased by 19.2% year - on - year, but the average battery capacity per vehicle increased by 29.2% year - on - year. From January to February, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively, and the sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 41.2% of the total sales of new vehicles. [56] 3.13 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of March 27, LME copper inventory increased by 17,900 tons to 360,300 tons this week, a 44.3% week - on - week increase and 67.34% higher year - on - year; COMEX copper inventory was 588,900 tons, a 0.04% week - on - week increase and 528.66% higher year - on - year. At the beginning of the year, Trump said that he would not consider imposing tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and other key minerals for the time being, and copper was also included in the scope of the "temporary tariff suspension" discussion. As of last Friday, the COMEX - LME spread converged to - $154.47/ton, the copper siphon effect weakened, and the inventories of LME and COMEX increased simultaneously. [61] - As of March 27, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 237,100 tons, a 3.80% week - on - week decrease; the cathode copper inventory was 359,100 tons, a 12.64% week - on - week decrease. Since the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, copper prices have continued to decline, stimulating an increase in downstream purchasing sentiment, and copper inventory has been rapidly reduced. It is expected that with the progress of the peak season and the maintenance of domestic smelters in the second quarter, copper inventory will continue to decline. On March 26, the cumulative spot inventory of copper in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 72,600 tons, and the bonded area inventory continued to decline. Part of the warehouse goods were continuously cleared and imported into the country this week, and the inventory decreased due to the low inflow. [66]