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专题报告:缅甸复产缓慢,锡矿供给恢复有限
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:29
Group 1: Report Core View - In H1 2025, China's tin ore imports decreased sharply due to the delayed resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and geopolitical conflicts in the DRC. In Q3, the overall imports are expected to remain at a low level, but the imports from Africa will gradually increase. If the tin mines in Wa State resume production smoothly in Q4, China's tin ore imports are expected to improve significantly [2][5][11] Group 2: 2025 H1 Domestic Tin Ore Imports - In H1 2025, China's tin ore imports decreased by 32.42% year-on-year to 62,100 physical tons. Imports from Myanmar dropped by 75.92% to 13,200 physical tons, while imports from the DRC increased [5] Group 3: Q3 Domestic Tin Ore Imports - In Q3, China's tin ore imports are expected to remain at a low level. In July, the import volume was 10,278 physical tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.7%. The decrease mainly came from Myanmar [7] - Although some operators in Wa State, Myanmar, have obtained mining permits, the export volume to China is not expected to increase significantly in Q3. If the resumption is successful in Q4, the monthly import volume is expected to return to 2,000 - 3,000 metal tons [7] Group 4: Tin Ore Imports from Africa - After the Bisie tin mine in the DRC resumed production, production has not been hindered, and imports from the DRC are expected to increase slightly in Q3. Investment in Nigerian tin mines is increasing, and production is expected to grow steadily [8] Group 5: Tin Ore Imports from Other Countries - Bolivia restricts the export of high-grade tin ore, and only low-grade tin ore can be exported, which is highly unstable. Australian tin mine reserves are decreasing, and subsequent production will mainly be stable [8][10]