锡牛或将启，布局迎时机 20250826 摘要 为保证 10%的产能顺利产出，LME 锡价需逐步上移至 5.4 万美元，当 前（2025 年）锡价约为 3.4 万美元。全球流动性宽松及需求预期向好， 供给端偏紧抬升矿山挺价意愿。 全球锡矿储量呈下行趋势，截至 2024 年约为 430 万吨，中国占比 23%。2024 年全球锡矿产量约 30 万吨，中国产量约 7 万吨，为印尼 的 1.4 倍，两国合计占比达 40%。 影响锡价因素包括宏观经济、供给扰动和需求变化。美联储降息周期、 9 月消费旺季及新电子产品推出将推动价格上涨，缅甸复产缓慢增加供 给端压力。 缅甸复产进度缓慢，受停产时间、地震影响及采矿许可证发放速度限制， 低品位矿山复产意愿不强，预计对供给冲击有限，可能延续至 2026 年。 半导体周期与锡价同向变化，消费电子换机潮将拉动锡需求，美联储降 息或宽松货币政策将抬升锡价。宏观经济改善情况下，锡有望迎来利好。 印尼锡矿开采难度增加，转向沿海或海上，陆地开采也以低品位矿为主。 天马公司产量从 2019 年的 8 万吨降至 2024 年的约 2 万吨，短期内印 尼增量有限。 预计 2025 年全球锡供给 ...

专题报告 2025-08-21 缅甸复产缓慢，锡矿供给恢复有限 吴坤金 报告要点： 2025 年上半年，受缅甸佤邦锡矿复产推迟、刚果（金）地缘冲突等因素影响，中国锡矿进口量 锐减。进入三季度，中国自非洲进口的锡矿数量预计将稳步增长，但由于缅甸佤邦矿端短期内 预计难有较大放量，国内整体锡矿进口量预计将维持在偏低水平，待四季度缅甸锡矿供应逐步 放量后，中国锡矿进口数量或将显著增加。 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 刘显杰（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 有色研究员 有色金属研究 | 锡 2025 年上半年，受缅甸佤邦锡矿复产推迟、刚果（金）地缘冲突等因素影响，中国锡矿进口量 锐减。根据中国海关公布的数据，2025 年上半年中国锡矿进口量同比减少 32.42%至 6.21 万实 物吨。一方面，缅甸佤邦锡矿区复产的进程受到该地地震影响有所推迟，加之前期留有库存基 本消耗完毕，2025 年上半年中国从缅甸进口锡矿数量出现大幅下滑。根据中国海关公布数据 ...

GREENTECH TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 綠科科技國際有限公司 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準 確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並表明不會就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因 依賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 本公告乃由綠科科技國際有限公司(「本公司」) 自願刊發。 本公司董事會 (「董事會」) 宣佈，Bluestone Mines Tasmania 合營企業 (「BMTJV」) 之雷 尼森項目，其中 YT Parksong Australia Holding Pty Limited (「YTPAH」) 持 50% 權益，二 零二五年四月至六月季度 (「季度」)之生產數量。季度的實際產出與上一季度 (即二零二五 年一月至三月) 對應的數字總結如下： | 生產總結 | 單位 | 截止以下日期止三個月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 二零二五年六月 | 二零二五年三月 | | | | 三十日 | 三十一日 | | 礦石開採噸數 | 噸 | 162,476 | 190,946 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in U.S. policy towards Myanmar, particularly regarding the lifting of sanctions against certain allies of the military government, which raises concerns about human rights and geopolitical implications [2][10]. Group 1: U.S. Policy Changes - On July 24, the U.S. lifted sanctions on several allies of Myanmar's military government, indicating a major policy shift [3][4]. - The U.S. Treasury did not provide an explanation for this decision, and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comments [7][10]. - The action has been described as alarming by human rights organizations, suggesting it undermines previous efforts to penalize the military regime [10]. Group 2: Myanmar's Rare Earth Production - Myanmar is a major producer of rare earth minerals, with a projected production of 31,000 tons in 2024, a decrease of 12,000 tons from 2023, accounting for 7.9% of global production [2][15]. - The country ranks as the third-largest rare earth producer globally, following China and the U.S. [15]. - Rare earth elements are critical for high-tech applications, including defense and consumer electronics, making Myanmar strategically important for U.S. supply diversification efforts [11][12]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) controls areas rich in rare earth resources, which may become a focal point in geopolitical competition [12][13]. - The U.S. is actively seeking to diversify its rare earth supply chains, and Myanmar's resources are increasingly under scrutiny [11][12]. - The lifting of sanctions may facilitate access to these resources, despite ongoing calls for the military government to cease violence and engage in dialogue with opposition groups [9][10]. Group 4: Tin Production - Myanmar is also the third-largest tin producer globally, with significant contributions to the global supply chain for semiconductors, 5G communications, and defense industries [17][18]. - The country’s tin resources are primarily located in the Wa region, which accounts for 90% of its production [19].

Core Points - The article discusses the historical context of smuggling activities in Southeast Asia, particularly in the Malacca Strait, highlighting the complex interplay between colonial powers and local economies [1][3][10] - It emphasizes the blurred lines between legal and illegal activities, as well as the ongoing struggle between smugglers and state authorities [1][3][11] Group 1: Historical Context - The Malacca Strait is characterized by its narrowness and shallow depth, making it a challenging area for defining international boundaries due to the cultural similarities of the residents on both sides [1][9] - The colonial division of Southeast Asia by the British and Dutch from 1865 to 1915 led to the establishment of new borders, which inadvertently fostered a large underground economy involving opium traffickers, counterfeiters, and smugglers [1][6][10] - The early civilizations in Southeast Asia lacked clear borders, allowing for a fluidity in trade and smuggling activities, particularly during the era of the Srivijaya kingdom, which thrived on controlling trade in the Malacca Strait [3][4] Group 2: Colonial Impact on Smuggling - The Dutch East India Company implemented strict monopolistic policies in the 17th century, leading to violent suppression of local populations and increased smuggling as residents sought to evade taxes [4][5] - By the 19th century, the political landscape had solidified with British and Dutch colonial expansions, leading to the establishment of trade routes and the exchange of territories, which continued to facilitate smuggling activities [5][6] - The economic interactions between colonizers and local populations were complex, with evidence of a dual economy where local producers engaged in smuggling to connect with colonial markets [11][10] Group 3: Modern Implications - The ongoing smuggling activities in Southeast Asia reflect a historical legacy of colonialism, where the boundaries established by colonial powers continue to influence economic behaviors and relationships [1][3][11] - Recent studies indicate that the economic networks among border residents are intricate, challenging the notion of a clear divide between colonial and local economies [11][10] - The article suggests that understanding the historical context of smuggling in Southeast Asia can provide insights into contemporary economic and political dynamics in the region [1][9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, along with the increasing operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, but the decrease in refined tin inventories both at home and abroad compared to last week, may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the negative (0 - 3) and positive (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin, are within reasonable ranges. Due to various factors, it is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - On July 11, Wa State, Myanmar, decided that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (with an initial incremental output of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months, totaling 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on April 9 (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively). These factors may cause the domestic tin ore production (import) volume in July to decrease (increase) month - on - month. Coupled with the decline in domestic tin concentrate processing fees, it may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [3][22]. - China's recycled tin production in July may increase month - on - month [23][25]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared to last week; China's refined tin production (inventory) volume in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][29]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may reduce long - term export quotas, causing the export volume in July to decrease month - on - month. China's refined tin import (export) volume in July may increase (decrease) month - on - month [3][33]. Demand Side - The operating rate (inventory) of China's tin solder production capacity in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][36]. - China's solder strip import (export) volume in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][38][40]. - China's tinplate production (import, export) volume in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][44]. Inventory - The social inventory of China's refined tin decreased compared to last week. The inventories of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Chinese tin ingot social inventory, and LME refined tin also decreased compared to last week [12][14]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and within a reasonable range, while the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [6][11]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support level around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance level around 274,000 - 280,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance level around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [3]. - It is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities regarding the basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin [6][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the historical significance of tin mining in Malaysia's Perak state, particularly in the Kinta Valley, and the contributions of Chinese miners to the industry and local economy [1][3][6]. Group 1: Historical Context - The discovery of tin ore in 1848 marked the beginning of a significant mining industry in the Kinta Valley, attracting merchants, capital, and labor [1][2]. - By the late 19th century, the tin production in the Malay Peninsula reached the highest global output, with Perak being the heart of this mining activity [3]. Group 2: Contributions of Chinese Miners - Chinese miners played a crucial role in the development of the tin mining industry, bringing advanced mining techniques and a steady labor supply [2][3]. - The integration of Chinese capital and labor, along with support from local Malay leaders, transformed the region into the world's largest tin mining area by the late 19th century [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Decline - The tin mining industry significantly contributed to the economic development of Malaysia, transitioning it from a jungle-covered land to a prosperous economy [3]. - The 1980s saw a decline in the tin industry due to global economic downturns and the rise of alternative materials, leading to mine closures and unemployment [3]. Group 4: Cultural Significance - The legacy of tin mining is being preserved through cultural initiatives, including the establishment of museums and the promotion of tin-related crafts [6][7]. - Local narratives emphasize the importance of remembering the contributions of miners, with efforts to document their history for future generations [7].

Market Overview - Tin is a globally priced commodity, but it is considered a small commodity compared to copper and aluminum due to its limited presence in the Earth's crust [1] - The global distribution of tin resources is concentrated in China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Australia, with limited new mines in recent years leading to low supply elasticity [1] - The supply disruptions, particularly after Myanmar's ban on tin mining in August 2023, have significantly impacted the market [1] Price Trends - In the first phase from January to early April 2025, tin prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose from 240,000 yuan/ton to a peak of 299,990 yuan/ton, marking a 25% increase due to supply disruptions from Africa and Myanmar [2] - Following this, prices fell over 13% to around 260,000 yuan/ton due to negative market sentiment and the announcement of tariffs by the U.S. [2][4] - The lowest price recorded in 2025 was 235,000 yuan/ton, influenced by the resumption of operations at the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][4] Supply Dynamics - Myanmar is the third-largest tin producer globally, contributing 15%-20% of the total supply, with the Wa region accounting for 90% of its production [4] - After the ban on mining in Myanmar, China's tin ore imports have significantly declined, with May 2025 imports at 13,400 tons, a 36.39% month-on-month increase but a 36.51% year-on-year decrease [5] - The supply situation remains tight, with domestic smelting fees declining and production affected by raw material shortages [7] Recovery Challenges - The recovery of tin mining in Myanmar has faced delays due to various factors, including rising costs of essential materials and a decrease in ore quality [10] - The resumption of operations in Myanmar is crucial for supply recovery, but the process is slow and complicated by external factors such as natural disasters and policy changes [9][10] Demand Factors - The global semiconductor market is experiencing cyclical changes, with a slowdown in growth expected in 2025, impacting demand for tin in electronics [13] - Domestic consumption of electronic products is also weak, with smartphone shipments showing only modest growth [15] - The overall demand for tin is being suppressed by high prices and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [17] Future Outlook - The core issue in the tin market remains the supply side, with a tight supply situation expected to persist in the short term due to slow recovery in Myanmar [21] - The second half of 2025 will be critical for assessing the recovery of tin supply, particularly from Myanmar and Africa [21] - Short-term price stability is anticipated, but a downward trend may emerge as supply conditions improve [21]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is currently experiencing supply tightness due to various factors, including the suspension of mining in Myanmar and geopolitical tensions affecting production in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The market is sensitive to any supply-related news, which can lead to significant price fluctuations. Supply Situation - The tin supply has been under pressure since the suspension of mining in Myanmar on August 1, 2023, leading to a tight global supply situation. The import volume of tin ore to China has sharply declined since the second quarter of last year due to depleting inventories [1][3] - The Alphamin Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is a significant source of tin for China, has faced production interruptions due to local conflicts, resulting in a supply gap of approximately 2,000 to 3,000 tons [3][4] - The processing fees for tin concentrate in China are at historical lows, indicating severe profit margin pressures for smelting companies [4][6] Production and Processing Challenges - The production of refined tin in China has decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and 11.24% year-on-year as of May 2025, with smelting plants operating at reduced capacity due to raw material shortages [6][7] - The operating rate of smelting enterprises in key tin-producing provinces like Yunnan and Jiangxi remains low, with some companies entering seasonal maintenance or production cuts due to raw material shortages and cost pressures [6][7] Demand Dynamics - The demand for tin is expected to face challenges as the market enters a seasonal slowdown, with potential declines in consumption in the second half of the year [8][13] - The semiconductor industry, which has been a significant driver of tin demand, is experiencing cyclical changes, with sales expected to slow down after a peak in late 2024 [9][13] - The solar energy sector has seen increased demand for tin solder, but the growth rate may slow down after the implementation of new market rules for distributed solar projects [11][12] Future Outlook - The tin market is anticipated to remain slightly tight in the short term, with limited increases in supply expected in June. However, the situation may improve as the supply from African mines and the resumption of mining in Myanmar are monitored [7][13] - Long-term demand for tin may see an uptick if the AI industry continues to grow, potentially leading to a mismatch between supply growth and demand resilience [13]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View Overall, there are not many new tin mine projects outside Asia, and the incremental output is lackluster. The main variable for tin mine supply in 2025 still lies in whether the Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar can resume production smoothly. Currently, it seems only a matter of time for the resumption of Myanmar's tin mines. In 2025, tin mine production in Indonesia is also expected to further recover, and tin mine supply may gradually shift from shortage to abundance within the next year [2][24]. 3. Summary by Directory Africa's Major Tin Mine Projects - In 2024, Africa's total tin mine production exceeded 40,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 23%. The increment was mainly contributed by the Bisie mine in Congo (Kinshasa). Tin mine production in other African regions also increased, with year - on - year growth rates of 41% and 59% in Nigeria and Rwanda respectively [4]. - The Bisie mine operated by Alphamin in Congo (Kinshasa) achieved a stable annual output. After the new Mpama South concentrator was put into production in May 2024 and gradually reached full capacity, the annual output is expected to reach about 8,500 tons in the next few years. In 2024, Congo (Kinshasa)'s tin mine production reached 25,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the company's tin output is expected to be reduced from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons, with the annual total output remaining basically the same as last year [4]. - The Uis tin mine in Namibia is one of the world's largest tin mines. After being acquired by Afri Tin in 2018, it was rebuilt in two phases. Currently, the annual output is about 1,000 tons. In 2024, with investment from Orion Resource Partners, the company plans to expand tin production to 1,600 metal tons per year [5]. South America's Major Tin Mine Projects - In the 20th century, South America was a major tin - producing region globally. The main tin - producing countries are Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia. In 2024, Peru's tin mine production exceeded 32,000 tons, a 23.2% year - on - year increase, thanks to a 17% increase in the output of the San Rafael mine of Minsur [9]. - Brazil's Pitinga mine has a large resource volume, but its output has been declining in recent years due to environmental policies and the crackdown on illegal mining. Bolivia mainly has state - owned smelting, and in 2024, its tin mine production increased by 8.6% year - on - year to 20,000 tons [9][13]. - Peru's San Rafael tin mine is the world's third - largest. In 2024, its tin mine output reached 24,400 tons. In 2025 Q1, the cash cost per ton of tin decreased significantly, by 34% year - on - year to $7,235 per ton [13]. - Brazil's tin mine output ranked sixth in the world in 2024, with 19,000 tons. The Pitinga tin mine has a resource reserve of 585,700 tons. In 2024, its tin output was 6,497 tons. Bolivia's tin production has remained stable around 20,000 tons since the 21st century, and in 2025, it was 21,000 tons [14]. Australia's Major Tin Mine Projects - In 2024, Australia's tin concentrate production increased by 17% to 11,000 tons, thanks to the good performance of the Renison mine of Metals X. The Ardlethan tailings project is in pilot production, and the annual output is expected to reach 1,000 - 2,000 tons after full capacity [19]. - The Renison tin mine is a joint - venture between Metals X and Yunnan Tin Group. The average full - life - cycle cost per ton of tin is estimated to be A$26,247. The Ardlethan tin mine is owned by EOE, a subsidiary of ATR. If the pilot production of the tin tailings project is successful, the company plans to expand the processing plant's capacity to 150 tons per hour, and the annual output is expected to reach 2,000 tons [19][21]. Overall Global Tin Mine Supply Outlook in 2025 - The total global tin mine production in 2024 was 278,700 tons, and it is expected to reach 294,100 tons in 2025, with an increment of 15,400 tons. The main variables affecting supply are the resumption of the Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar and the recovery of production in Indonesia [24][25].