供给延续偏紧，关注 缅甸复产进展 锡月报 2025/10/10 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：尽管近期缅甸佤邦地区矿产开采证已审批完毕，但复产进度偏慢，预计四季度锡矿供应才能得到显著恢复。根据中国海关公布的数 据，2025年8月我国进口锡精矿实物量达10267吨，较上月持平。自刚果（金）、俄罗斯、玻利维亚等国进口锡精矿量级有所下滑，但整体量 级处于正常水平，仅为船期等运输因素影响。自缅甸进口锡矿量有所回升，随着采矿证审批通过，短期供应有改善迹象。自其他地区及国家 进口锡矿量级保持往期水平。 ◆ 供给端：缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度缓慢，11月前难以放量，云南地区冶炼企业原材料紧张现象仍存，叠加9月某大型冶炼企业开启检修，导致 本周云南地区开工率大幅下滑；江西地区则因废料显著 ...

周一，他见证了一起锡矿开采腐败案中查获资产的移交仪式。他表示，这体现了政府为根除非法采矿所 做的认真努力。 （文华综合） 10月6日（周一），印尼总统Prabowo Subianto呼吁总检察长、军方、海关和海岸警卫队等部门继续努 力，制止非法锡矿开采和走私活动。 ...

北京时间23:30，LME三个月期锡上涨2.8%，至每吨35,455美元，盘中最高触及35,510美元，创4月4日以来的最高水准。 此外，沪锡2511合约晚盘一度攀升3.9%，最高触及283,000元，创主力连续合约4月3日以来的最高位。 国际锡业协会（International Tin Association）在5月曾表示，2024年印尼精炼锡产量下滑至不到50,000吨，创20多年最低。 9月29日（周一），LME三个月期锡涨至近六个月最高，因主要锡生产国印尼的矿业整顿行动引燃对供应短缺的担忧。 印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比安托周一下令关闭苏门答腊岛邦加-勿里洞省（Bangka Belitung）1,000个非法采矿点。这项举措于9月1日启动，据总统称，预计到 2026年将避免国家损失高达45万亿卢比（约合28亿美元）。 普拉博沃表示："邦加-勿里洞省约80%的锡矿产量都是通过各种渠道被走私到国外的，途径包括小型船只和客运轮船等。" 去年，印尼占到全球锡总产量371,200吨的13.5%左右。 （文华综合） （截至9月29日收盘，伦锡涨2.79%） ...

印度尼西亚总统普拉博沃·苏比延多29日表示，已经下令关闭苏门答腊岛（Sumatra island）邦加-勿里洞 省（Bangka Belitung）的1000座非法锡矿，并全面封堵走私通道。 普拉博沃表示，该项行动预计到2026年可为国家挽回45万亿印尼盾（约合27亿美元）的损失。 （文章来源：新华财经） 普拉博沃指出，小船和客运渡轮等走私渠道目前已被彻底切断。自9月1日专项行动启动以来，印尼当局 已成功拦截近八成走私锡矿。 他同时强调，邦加-勿里洞省锡矿废料中蕴含丰富稀土矿物，其高价值长期被忽视，已责成海关部门招 募化学专家，对相关废料进行稀土含量检测，并重申政府将坚定打击非法采矿、提升国家收入的决心。 邦加-勿里洞省是全球重要的锡矿开采中心，在国际锡供应链中占据关键地位。 ...

8月进口锡精矿及其矿砂在数量上主要呈现减少态势的来源地有刚果（金），玻利维亚等地。其中，刚果（金）8月进口量为2452.69实物吨（折合约1382.67 金属吨），同比下降7.74%，环比下降15.56%；玻利维亚8月进口锡矿量为505.80实物吨（折合约119.32金属吨），环比下降7.45%。 数据来源：海关总署 数据来源：海关总署 2025年8月，中国进口的锡精矿及其矿砂在数量上环比呈现增加态势的来源地有缅甸、澳大利亚以及东南亚周边地区。就缅甸而言，其境内的佤邦地区目前 虽已开启复产进程，但实际进展并不如预期顺利。一方面，缅甸锡矿的品位呈现出下降趋势，且由于采用地下开采方式，这使得开采难度不断增大，开采成 本也随之持续攀升。另一方面，在选矿工艺环节中所使用的药剂，全部需要从中国进口。随着原矿品位的降低，药剂成本逐渐上升，这在一定程度上抑制了 矿企复产的积极性。尽管目前已有50%-60%的坑道重新开启，但又面临着招工困难、设备调试耗时较长以及部分坑道被弃用等诸多问题，因此暂时还未能实 现规模化的产出。 澳大利亚的主要锡矿山开采历史悠久，虽然储量有所下降，但依然具有一定的开采潜力。澳大利亚8月的进口锡矿量环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai tin market is experiencing a price increase, with the main contract rising over 2%, despite being in a season of weak demand [1]. Supply and Demand - Overall demand for tin is currently weak due to the off-peak consumption season [1]. - Tin ore imports in China decreased slightly in July compared to June, indicating a tightening supply situation [1]. - Although Myanmar's Wa State has gradually resumed production, there has not yet been any significant volume of tin entering the domestic market [1]. Market Influences - The combination of tight supply and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is contributing to a stronger outlook for Shanghai tin prices [1].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the tin industry, specifically the global tin supply and demand dynamics, pricing factors, and production challenges in key regions such as China, Indonesia, and Myanmar [1][2][3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tin Price Projections**: To ensure a 10% production capacity, the LME tin price needs to gradually rise to $54,000, while the current price in 2025 is approximately $34,000 [1][3]. - **Global Tin Reserves**: As of 2024, global tin reserves are projected to be around 4.3 million tons, with China accounting for 23% of this total [1][4]. - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: In 2025, global tin supply is expected to grow by 1% to 377,000 tons, while demand is projected to increase by 3% to 385,000 tons, resulting in an 8,000-ton deficit [2][13]. - **Impact of Macroeconomic Factors**: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the upcoming consumption peak in September, and the launch of new electronic products are anticipated to drive tin prices upward [1][6][8]. - **Myanmar's Production Challenges**: Myanmar's slow recovery from production halts due to various factors, including geological issues and licensing delays, is expected to limit supply impacts until at least 2026 [7][9]. Additional Important Content - **Declining Ore Grades**: The global decline in tin ore grades is leading to rising production costs, with the complete cost expected to reach $34,000 by 2027 and $54,000 by 2030 [3]. - **Regional Production Insights**: Indonesia, as the second-largest tin producer, faces challenges in mining due to geographical constraints, with significant production drops from major companies like Timah [9][11]. - **Emerging Supply Sources**: South America and Africa are identified as potential future sources of tin supply, with expected production increases in countries like Peru and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, despite political instability [10]. - **Domestic Production Trends**: Domestic tin production in China has seen limited growth due to regulatory constraints, with ongoing projects progressing slowly [11]. - **Consumer Demand Drivers**: The global tin consumption is projected to reach 373,000 tons in 2024, driven primarily by the electronics sector, particularly soldering applications [12]. Recommended Companies - **Xiyu Co., Ltd.**: Noted for its resource expansion capabilities and potential in tailings recovery, with strategic partnerships for a northern industrial base [14]. - **Xinyan Silver**: Expected to see production increases from its projects, contributing several thousand tons to the market [14]. - **Huaxi Nonferrous Metals**: Positioned as a key player in resource integration in Guangxi, with potential production boosts from various mining projects [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in tin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, ongoing supply disruptions, and structural demand differentiation in the market [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 54.5, exceeding expectations and indicating the fastest expansion since 2022, which has strengthened the US dollar and put pressure on commodity prices [1] - The imposition of tariffs by the US has increased market uncertainty, leading to a decline in major US stock indices and a cautious trading environment [1] Supply Side Analysis - Global tin supply is heavily concentrated in countries like Myanmar and Indonesia, with production dynamics in these countries directly impacting market supply [1] - Myanmar's production recovery is hindered by slow infrastructure repairs and labor shortages, resulting in lower-than-expected output [1] - Indonesia's refined tin export quotas are subject to domestic policy changes, adding to supply uncertainty [1] - The overall quality of global tin resources is declining, leading to increased mining costs and the exit of smaller mines due to financial and technical constraints [2] Demand Side Analysis - Traditional demand from the electronics sector is weakening due to slower product iterations, particularly in smartphones and tablets, leading to reduced solder demand [1] - Conversely, emerging sectors such as electric vehicle battery manufacturing and photovoltaic component soldering are experiencing rapid growth in tin demand, particularly driven by global clean energy policies [1] Industry Chain Dynamics - Upstream tin mining companies face dual pressures from rising costs and resource depletion, necessitating increased investment in technology [2] - Midstream smelting companies are experiencing fluctuating operating rates due to unstable supply, leading to reduced processing fees and profit margins [2] - Downstream manufacturing companies are compelled to control costs and explore alternative materials, although the short-term irreplaceability of tin in key applications remains significant [2] Short-term Outlook - Tin prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by the recovery progress in major producing countries and the stability of Indonesia's export policies, alongside the unexpected growth in demand from new energy and photovoltaic sectors [3] - If supply disruptions ease and emerging demand continues to grow, tin prices may find support; conversely, if supply increases unexpectedly while demand growth slows, prices could face downward pressure [3]

Group 1: Report Core View - In H1 2025, China's tin ore imports decreased sharply due to the delayed resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and geopolitical conflicts in the DRC. In Q3, the overall imports are expected to remain at a low level, but the imports from Africa will gradually increase. If the tin mines in Wa State resume production smoothly in Q4, China's tin ore imports are expected to improve significantly [2][5][11] Group 2: 2025 H1 Domestic Tin Ore Imports - In H1 2025, China's tin ore imports decreased by 32.42% year-on-year to 62,100 physical tons. Imports from Myanmar dropped by 75.92% to 13,200 physical tons, while imports from the DRC increased [5] Group 3: Q3 Domestic Tin Ore Imports - In Q3, China's tin ore imports are expected to remain at a low level. In July, the import volume was 10,278 physical tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.7%. The decrease mainly came from Myanmar [7] - Although some operators in Wa State, Myanmar, have obtained mining permits, the export volume to China is not expected to increase significantly in Q3. If the resumption is successful in Q4, the monthly import volume is expected to return to 2,000 - 3,000 metal tons [7] Group 4: Tin Ore Imports from Africa - After the Bisie tin mine in the DRC resumed production, production has not been hindered, and imports from the DRC are expected to increase slightly in Q3. Investment in Nigerian tin mines is increasing, and production is expected to grow steadily [8] Group 5: Tin Ore Imports from Other Countries - Bolivia restricts the export of high-grade tin ore, and only low-grade tin ore can be exported, which is highly unstable. Australian tin mine reserves are decreasing, and subsequent production will mainly be stable [8][10]

GREENTECH TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 綠科科技國際有限公司 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準 確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並表明不會就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因 依賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 本公告乃由綠科科技國際有限公司(「本公司」) 自願刊發。 本公司董事會 (「董事會」) 宣佈，Bluestone Mines Tasmania 合營企業 (「BMTJV」) 之雷 尼森項目，其中 YT Parksong Australia Holding Pty Limited (「YTPAH」) 持 50% 權益，二 零二五年四月至六月季度 (「季度」)之生產數量。季度的實際產出與上一季度 (即二零二五 年一月至三月) 對應的數字總結如下： | 生產總結 | 單位 | 截止以下日期止三個月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 二零二五年六月 | 二零二五年三月 | | | | 三十日 | 三十一日 | | 礦石開採噸數 | 噸 | 162,476 | 190,946 ...