雷尼森矿石系统在深度和走向上保持开放，已计划和正在进行的钻探计划提供了继续增加资源库存的巨 大潜力。 绿科科技国际(00195)发布雷尼森锡矿业务矿石储量估算的最新资料雷尼森贝尔于2025年3月31日的总探 明及概略储量为750.5万公吨(锡品位为1.37%，含锡量为10.27万公吨)(经计及过去12个月的开采消耗情 况、经更新的锡价格及经修订的临界品位)：于过去的12个月，雷尼森地下的总储备矿石吨数减少8.6%; 及于过去的12个月，雷尼森地下的储量含锡减少8.5%。 储量锡品位为1.37%，加工后的锡品位为1.66%(分选后)。 ...

Group 1: Supply Constraints - The slow recovery of tin production in Myanmar's Wa State and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining are expected to exacerbate the supply shortage of tin ore [1] - As of October 24, the processing fees for tin concentrate in Yunnan and Jiangxi are at 12,000 CNY/ton and 8,000 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting a tight domestic supply of tin ore [1] Group 2: Consumption Trends - The tin chemical sector accounts for approximately 20% of refined tin consumption, but the real estate market's performance has been weak, limiting the demand for PVC and subsequently refined tin [2] - The tin solder sector represents about 40% of refined tin consumption, with demand expected to rise due to the recovery of the semiconductor industry and strong performance in the automotive market [2] - The photovoltaic industry is also driving demand for tin solder, with China's photovoltaic module output reaching 49.9 GW in September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.63% [2] Group 3: Price Outlook - Given the favorable factors in the market, tin prices are expected to break through the 285,000 CNY/ton level in the short term [3]

Core Insights - The Indonesian government, led by President Prabowo Subianto, is intensifying enforcement and regulatory measures against illegal tin mining and smuggling activities, which have caused significant economic losses to the country [1] - Over the past 20 years, illegal tin mining and smuggling have resulted in annual losses of up to 40 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 2.4 billion USD), with cumulative losses potentially reaching 800 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (around 48.2 billion USD) [1] - The government has recently transferred confiscated assets from illegal mining cases to the state-owned tin mining company PT Timah Tbk, which includes six smelting plants, approximately 680 tons of refined tin, and 108 heavy equipment units [1] - The operational restoration of these facilities is expected to generate an annual potential revenue of about 46 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 3 million USD) for the country [1] - Following the government's crackdown, including the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka-Belitung province, tin prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose, reaching a near six-month high in early October [1] - On October 20, the main tin contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 279,340 Yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.50% from the previous trading day [1]

Group 1 - Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto announced the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines and the blocking of smuggling channels, impacting the global tin supply market [1] - Indonesia is the second-largest producer of tin concentrate and refined tin, with an estimated production of 50,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 16.7% of global tin production [1] - The crackdown primarily affects small to medium-sized private smelters reliant on illegal mines, potentially exacerbating global tin supply tightness [1] Group 2 - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has reverted the RKAB approval process from a three-year to an annual basis, effective from 2026, to promote compliance and efficiency in the tin industry [2] - The production recovery of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is below expectations, with only about 1,200 tons exported in August [2] - Tin smelting companies are under pressure as processing fees for tin concentrate have dropped to their lowest levels in three years [2] Group 3 - AI servers consume significantly more tin than traditional servers, with Nvidia's NVL72GB300 server consuming approximately 4.71 kg of tin per unit [3] - The global demand for tin from AI servers is projected to grow at an annual rate of 44.5% from 2025 to 2030, potentially reaching 34,000 tons by 2030 [3] - The limited new tin supply capacity, coupled with growth in emerging sectors like AI and renewable energy, supports a positive long-term outlook for tin prices [3]

Core Insights - Indonesia, the world's second-largest tin producer, is experiencing a rise in global tin prices due to the government's strict crackdown on tin mining [2] Industry Summary - The Indonesian government has implemented stringent measures against tin mining, which has contributed to an increase in global tin prices [2] - Tin production in Indonesia is expected to return to normal levels by 2026 as a result of these government actions [2]

Core Insights - China Xingye Silver Tin Group has completed the acquisition of 100% equity in Atlantic Tin's Moroccan subsidiary, which holds multiple tin mining projects in Morocco [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves Atlantic Tin's Moroccan subsidiary, which is strategically important due to its rich tin resources [1] - The Ahamanch mine is highlighted as the most valuable asset, with an estimated total ore volume of 39.1 million tons and an average tin grade of 0.55% [1] - The total estimated tin metal from the Ahamanch mine is projected to be 213,300 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent fluctuations in tin prices are mainly affected by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin exports. Although the domestic price may open higher after the holiday, the probability of continuous strengthening is considered low. Attention should be paid to tariff risks [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 was at a discount of $61.99 per ton, and the domestic spot was at a premium of 300 yuan per ton [8][9]. - Overseas premium has declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [14]. 1.2 Spread - This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [17][18]. 1.3 Inventory - This week, the domestic social inventory decreased by 104 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 268 tons [23][24]. - This week, the LME inventory increased by 205 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants dropped to 9.96% [29]. 1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 2.04013 billion yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in an inflow direction [34][35]. 1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin slightly decreased, while the open interest slightly increased [36][37]. - This week, the trading volume of LME tin slightly decreased, and the open interest continued to decline [41][42]. 1.6 Position - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin slightly rebounded [46]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 2.1 Tin Ore - In July 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In August 2025, 10,267 tons were imported, a year - on - year increase of 16.34%, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28.61% [50]. - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan per ton. The profitability of tin ore imports slightly rebounded [51]. 2.2 Smelting - In August 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09% [53][54]. - This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces slightly rebounded to 29.72% [55]. 2.3 Import - In August 2025, 1,296 tons of domestic tin ingots were imported, 1,640 tons were exported, with a net export of 344 tons. Among them, 501 tons of tin ingots were imported from Indonesia to China. The latest import profitability was - 15,038 yuan per ton [60]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.1 Consumption - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,046 tons, and the actual consumption was 15,843 tons [68]. 3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fee slightly decreased. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises rebounded in August to 73.2%. The output and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises slightly decreased in July [70]. 3.3 End - User Consumption - In August 2025, the output of end - user products showed mixed performance. The output of integrated circuits decreased in August, while the monthly output of electronics and smartphones increased. In the home appliance sector, the output of air conditioners decreased, while the output of color TVs and washing machines slightly increased [77]. - In August 2025, the consumption of home appliances and new energy decreased month - on - month [79]. - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, showing the same trend as tin prices [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the domestic tin price showed a generally oscillating and strengthening trend, and it increased significantly at the beginning of October due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines. - In the short - term, the shortage of tin supply is obvious, and the tin price is expected to remain stable at a high level. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress in Myanmar at the end of October [11][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: Although the mining permits in the Wa State of Myanmar have been approved, the resumption of production is slow. It is expected that the supply of tin ore will significantly recover in the fourth quarter. In August 2025, China's imported tin concentrate physical volume was 10,267 tons, unchanged from the previous month. Imports from countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Russia, and Bolivia decreased slightly due to shipping factors, while imports from Myanmar increased. Imports from other regions remained at previous levels [11]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar is slow and difficult to increase production before November. Raw material shortages in Yunnan's smelting enterprises still persist. In addition, a large - scale smelting enterprise in Yunnan started maintenance in September, leading to a significant decline in the operating rate in Yunnan this week. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap and insufficient supply of crude tin, the refined tin output remained at a low level. It is estimated that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month [11]. - Demand side: The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors continue to be booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances, which account for the majority of demand, remains sluggish. The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in September 2025 was 27.07 million units, a 7.2% decrease compared to the same period last year. In the short - term, with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, downstream consumption has marginally improved, and the operating rate of domestic sample tin solder enterprises rebounded to 73.22% in August [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific text summary content provided, only relevant graphs about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3) are presented [19]. 3.3 Cost Side - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fees remain at a low level [27]. 3.4 Supply Side - The resumption of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar is slow, and it is difficult to increase production before November. Yunnan's smelting enterprises face raw material shortages, and a large - scale smelting enterprise's maintenance in September led to a significant decline in the operating rate in Yunnan. In Jiangxi, due to a reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin is insufficient, and the refined tin output remains low. It is estimated that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month [11]. 3.5 Demand Side - The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors continue to be booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances remains sluggish. The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in September 2025 decreased by 7.2% compared to the same period last year. - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales maintain high growth. - Tin consumption in the tinplate field continues to decline, mainly because aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. The PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year [11][46][57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Inventory: The social inventory of tin ingots continued to decline. Last Friday, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 8,352 tons, a decrease of 686 tons compared to September 19 [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto emphasizes the need for continued efforts by various departments to combat illegal tin mining and smuggling activities [1] Group 1 - The President witnessed the asset handover ceremony related to a corruption case in tin mining, highlighting the government's serious commitment to eradicating illegal mining [1] - The call to action includes collaboration among the Attorney General's Office, military, customs, and coast guard to address these issues [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tin prices is driven by supply concerns following Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining operations, which is expected to significantly impact the country's tin production and exports [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Concerns - Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal mining sites in Bangka Belitung province, which is expected to prevent losses of up to 450 trillion rupiah (approximately $28 billion) by 2026 [2]. - Approximately 80% of tin production in Bangka Belitung is smuggled abroad through various means, including small boats and passenger ships [2]. - The International Tin Association projected that Indonesia's refined tin output could drop to below 50,000 tons in 2024, marking a 20-year low [4]. Group 2: Price Movements - As of September 29, LME three-month tin prices rose by 2.8% to $35,455 per ton, reaching a peak of $35,510, the highest level since April 4 [2][6]. - The Shanghai tin futures contract also saw a significant increase, climbing 3.9% to a maximum of 283,000 yuan, the highest since April 3 for the main continuous contract [3].