jin 2025 年 12 月 19 日 震荡与突围：供给扰动下的再平衡 ---2026 年锡期货行情展望 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 报告导读： 期 货 研 究 所 基本面方面，我们认为 26 上半年处于供需双弱的短缺格局，年中前后随缅甸掸邦第二特区复产面临边际宽松。 供应侧，2026 年总体有可观增量释放，供应面临边际宽松，主要来源于缅甸佤邦复产和印尼增产，同时关注刚果（金） 等非洲产区扰动，上下半年或将面临一定分化，呈现前紧后松的供应格局。缅甸方面，短期内同比减幅或有所收敛， 但上下半年面临分化。刚果（金）方面，冲突预计边际带来 1750 吨左右的减量。印尼锡锭方面，继续维持增长，向全 球市场输送增量。国内锡锭方面，仍需关注缅甸佤邦复产主导的原料供应情况。需求侧，AI 领域增速较快但基数较小， 多数终端需求仍然低迷。 2026 年全球供应为 36.9 万吨，增速为 0.3%，全球总需求为 37.8 万吨，增速为-0.8%。全球供需平衡缺口 0.9 万吨。中国供应约有 18.2 万吨，中国需求约有 18.5 万吨，供需或存在 0.3 万吨的缺口。策略 ...

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年12月7日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：基本面难以跟涨价格，警惕价格调整风险 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：290000-325000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Wind、SHMET、国泰君安期货研究所 第 3 页 ◆ 本周锡价向上突破，上破30万区间，周度涨幅超过4%。 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 01-02 01-13 01-24 02-04 02-15 02-26 03-09 03-20 03-31 04-12 04-23 05-05 05-16 05-27 06-07 06-18 06-29 07-10 07-21 08-01 08-12 08-23 09-03 09-14 09-25 10-13 10-24 11-04 11-15 ...

锡：供需紧平衡且供给扰动频发，激励价格攀升 20251202 摘要 缅甸锡矿出口受限：受反腐行动影响，精炼锡出口量锐减，2025 年 1 月出口量仅为正常月份的一半，若 2026 年重演，将影响全球约 10%的 锡供应，相当于缅甸停产，加剧市场供应紧张。 缅甸复产进度缓慢：10 月份出口中国的锡量仅为停产前正常月份的 20%，市场预期复产速度低于预期，受雨季和矿井积水影响，短期内难 以恢复至正常供应水平，持续对市场形成供应压力。 全球锡矿储采比低：锡是最稀缺的有色金属之一，2024 年全球静态储 采比仅为 16 年，中国仅为 14 年，资源分布集中导致供应脆弱性高，主 要资源聚集地开发程度较高，加剧市场不稳定性。 中国锡矿储量下降：长期高强度开采导致中国锡矿储量显著减少，从 2001 年的 210 万吨降至 2024 年的 100 万吨，静态储采比从 30.34 下 降到 14，后备资源不足，需通过进口补充。 中国锡供需缺口扩大：国内锡矿产量下降与精炼锡产量增加形成对比， 导致原料供应与精炼需求之间缺口扩大，2024 年缺口达 12 万吨，占当 年总需求比例超过 63%，依赖进口。 Q&A 近期锡价持续上涨的 ...

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：供给再出扰动，锡价突破30万关口 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：290000-235000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-09 09-20 10-08 10-20 10-31 11-11 11-22 12-06 12-20 吨 SMM社会库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 01-02 01-13 01-24 02-04 02-15 02-2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Green Technology International (00195) has released the latest estimates of ore reserves for the Renison Tin Mine, indicating a total measured and indicated reserve of 7.505 million tonnes with a tin grade of 1.37% as of March 31, 2025, reflecting a decrease in both total ore tonnes and tin content over the past 12 months [1] Group 1: Ore Reserves - The total ore reserve at Renison has decreased by 8.6% over the past 12 months [1] - The contained tin in the ore has decreased by 8.5% during the same period [1] - The tin grade of the reserves is reported at 1.37%, while the processed tin grade after separation is 1.66% [1] Group 2: Exploration Potential - The Renison ore system remains open in depth and strike, indicating significant potential for resource inventory increase through planned and ongoing drilling programs [1]

Group 1: Supply Constraints - The slow recovery of tin production in Myanmar's Wa State and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining are expected to exacerbate the supply shortage of tin ore [1] - As of October 24, the processing fees for tin concentrate in Yunnan and Jiangxi are at 12,000 CNY/ton and 8,000 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting a tight domestic supply of tin ore [1] Group 2: Consumption Trends - The tin chemical sector accounts for approximately 20% of refined tin consumption, but the real estate market's performance has been weak, limiting the demand for PVC and subsequently refined tin [2] - The tin solder sector represents about 40% of refined tin consumption, with demand expected to rise due to the recovery of the semiconductor industry and strong performance in the automotive market [2] - The photovoltaic industry is also driving demand for tin solder, with China's photovoltaic module output reaching 49.9 GW in September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.63% [2] Group 3: Price Outlook - Given the favorable factors in the market, tin prices are expected to break through the 285,000 CNY/ton level in the short term [3]

Core Insights - The Indonesian government, led by President Prabowo Subianto, is intensifying enforcement and regulatory measures against illegal tin mining and smuggling activities, which have caused significant economic losses to the country [1] - Over the past 20 years, illegal tin mining and smuggling have resulted in annual losses of up to 40 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 2.4 billion USD), with cumulative losses potentially reaching 800 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (around 48.2 billion USD) [1] - The government has recently transferred confiscated assets from illegal mining cases to the state-owned tin mining company PT Timah Tbk, which includes six smelting plants, approximately 680 tons of refined tin, and 108 heavy equipment units [1] - The operational restoration of these facilities is expected to generate an annual potential revenue of about 46 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 3 million USD) for the country [1] - Following the government's crackdown, including the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka-Belitung province, tin prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose, reaching a near six-month high in early October [1] - On October 20, the main tin contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 279,340 Yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.50% from the previous trading day [1]

Group 1 - Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto announced the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines and the blocking of smuggling channels, impacting the global tin supply market [1] - Indonesia is the second-largest producer of tin concentrate and refined tin, with an estimated production of 50,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 16.7% of global tin production [1] - The crackdown primarily affects small to medium-sized private smelters reliant on illegal mines, potentially exacerbating global tin supply tightness [1] Group 2 - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has reverted the RKAB approval process from a three-year to an annual basis, effective from 2026, to promote compliance and efficiency in the tin industry [2] - The production recovery of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is below expectations, with only about 1,200 tons exported in August [2] - Tin smelting companies are under pressure as processing fees for tin concentrate have dropped to their lowest levels in three years [2] Group 3 - AI servers consume significantly more tin than traditional servers, with Nvidia's NVL72GB300 server consuming approximately 4.71 kg of tin per unit [3] - The global demand for tin from AI servers is projected to grow at an annual rate of 44.5% from 2025 to 2030, potentially reaching 34,000 tons by 2030 [3] - The limited new tin supply capacity, coupled with growth in emerging sectors like AI and renewable energy, supports a positive long-term outlook for tin prices [3]

Core Insights - Indonesia, the world's second-largest tin producer, is experiencing a rise in global tin prices due to the government's strict crackdown on tin mining [2] Industry Summary - The Indonesian government has implemented stringent measures against tin mining, which has contributed to an increase in global tin prices [2] - Tin production in Indonesia is expected to return to normal levels by 2026 as a result of these government actions [2]

Core Insights - China Xingye Silver Tin Group has completed the acquisition of 100% equity in Atlantic Tin's Moroccan subsidiary, which holds multiple tin mining projects in Morocco [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves Atlantic Tin's Moroccan subsidiary, which is strategically important due to its rich tin resources [1] - The Ahamanch mine is highlighted as the most valuable asset, with an estimated total ore volume of 39.1 million tons and an average tin grade of 0.55% [1] - The total estimated tin metal from the Ahamanch mine is projected to be 213,300 tons [1]