期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 沪锡市场周报 美元走强进口压力 预计锡价震荡调整 王福辉 业务咨询 研究员： 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锡主力冲高回调，周线涨跌幅为+9.17%，振幅11.84%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价 352540元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国劳动力市场未显明显压力，上周首次申请失业救济人数环比微增至20.8万， 低于预期21.2万；美债收益率反弹、美元四周新高。基本面，供应端，国内锡矿进口供应仍相对较紧， 锡矿加工费维持低位。缅甸复产推进叠加雨季结束，提供了部分锡矿供应增量；但其地地区供应仍具 有较大不稳定性，整体锡矿进口量仍处于较低水平。冶炼端，当前锡矿原料紧张，大部分企业原料库 存还是偏低，对大多数企业来说处于亏本状况，预计精炼锡产量继续受限，同比仍缺乏增量。进口方 面，印尼 11 月出口量大幅增加，缓解了对印尼供应受限的担忧；近期进口窗口临近开启，进口压力 增大 ...

人民财讯1月5日电，赣锋锂业（002460）1月5日在互动平台回复称，内蒙古维拉斯托矿业有限公司锂锡 多金属矿240万吨/年采矿建设项目(简称"维拉斯托项目")已正式获得核准批复，采矿设备正在分批进 场。 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a strong fluctuation in lithium prices in the short term, supported by a backdrop of price reassessment across key metals [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel and coal production in 2026, which, combined with Vale's suspension of nickel mining, is expected to tighten supply and support nickel prices [1] - The cobalt market is expected to remain structurally tight, with prices likely to rise further due to ongoing supply constraints [2][5] - The antimony market is showing signs of recovery in exports, which may lead to domestic prices converging with higher international prices [6][18] - The lithium market is experiencing a continuous destocking trend, with prices expected to remain strong due to stable demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [8][19] - The rare earth market is tightening due to new export restrictions from Vietnam, which may further support prices [20] - The tin market faces uncertainties in supply due to ongoing issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's government plans to cut nickel production by approximately 34% in 2026, reducing the target to 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - Vale's Indonesian operations have halted nickel mining, contributing to supply tightness [1] - The cobalt market is expected to face structural supply constraints, with prices projected to rise due to a decrease in available export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][5] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are expected to rise as supply remains tight, particularly with winter mining activities slowing down [6][18] - The Chinese government has implemented export controls that may further tighten supply and support higher domestic prices [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased to 118,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a 16.76% rise [8] - Continuous destocking in the lithium market is expected to support prices, with demand from the electric vehicle sector remaining robust [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - New export restrictions from Vietnam are expected to tighten global rare earth supply, supporting prices [20] - China continues to dominate the rare earth supply chain, with significant production capacity compared to other countries [20] Tin Industry Update - The tin market is facing uncertainties due to supply issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] - Recent increases in tin imports from Myanmar may help alleviate some supply concerns, but overall uncertainty remains [21]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 27 日 短期锂价仍持续看涨，看好价格重估背景下的 关键金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼 26 年镍矿配额或下调叠加对镍矿伴生资源额外 征税税负，对镍矿价格或有支撑 截止到 12 月 24 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15435 美元/ 吨，较 12 月 17 日上涨 8.13%，LME 镍总库存为 255696 吨， 较 12 月 17 日增加 0.67%；沪镍报收 12.68 万元/吨，较 12 月 19 日上涨 8.38%，沪镍库存为 45,280 吨，较 12 月 19 日增加 0.02%；截止到 12 月 26 日，硫酸镍报收 26,900 元/吨，较 12 月 19 日价格下跌 2.36%。根据 SMM，印尼原料方面，火法矿 方面，从供应角度来看，印尼主要镍矿产区正处于活跃雨季， 导致部分矿山生产受阻。截止这周，印尼林业部执法行动仍在 延续，受此监管压力，矿山普遍维持惜售/观望态度，出货节 奏趋于保守。需求端来看，NPI 冶炼厂的采购 ...

证券日报网讯12月16日，兴业银锡（000426）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，目前，摩洛哥 Achmmach锡矿项目正在做建设方案的优化工作，优化设计完成后即可开工建设。银漫二期目前已取得 立项批复，正在积极与当地政府沟通，推进办理开工许可手续工作。 ...

Group 1 - In 2024, global copper production is projected to reach 23 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.77%, primarily driven by contributions from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia [1] - Global electrolytic aluminum production is expected to grow by 2.86% to 72 million tons in 2024, with China being the largest producer at 43 million tons, accounting for 59.72% of the total, an increase of 140,000 tons from 2023 [1] - Global lead ore production is forecasted to decline by 1.60% to 4.3 million tons in 2024, with China's lead ore production at 1.9 million tons, representing 44.19% of the global total [1] Group 2 - Zinc production is anticipated to continue its downward trend, decreasing by 0.83% to 12 million tons in 2024, with China contributing 33.33% of global zinc production [4] - Despite a general growth trend in global nickel production, it is expected to slightly decline by 1.33% to 3.7 million tons in 2024 due to the impact of low-cost nickel products from Indonesia, leading to production cuts in Australia and the Philippines [4] - Global tin production is projected to decrease by 1.64% to 300,000 tons in 2024, with major production concentrated in China, Indonesia, Peru, and Myanmar [4] Group 3 - China's copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc reserve-to-production ratios are significantly lower than the global average, with China's copper reserve-to-production ratio at approximately 22.78 years, compared to the global average of 42.61 years [7] - China's copper reserves account for only 4.18% of global reserves, totaling 41 million tons, with challenges including small ore bodies, low grades, and high extraction costs [7] - The aging of mines and declining ore grades are expected to impact China's copper production, which is projected to decrease by 1.1% to 1.8 million tons in 2024 [7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

Report Title - "2025.12.12 Weekly Report on Shanghai Tin Market: Macroeconomic Improvement Boosts Sentiment, Anticipating Strong Adjustment in Tin Prices" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai tin market is expected to undergo a short - term strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance at the 345,000 level [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main Shanghai tin contract continued to rise significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.88% and an amplitude of 8.76%. The closing price of the main contract was 333,000 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, and various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, resolve local government debt risks, and boost consumption [5] - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline [5] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers show purchasing interest when tin prices decline, but rising prices suppress transactions. Inventory has increased slightly [5] - **Technical - level**: There is a significant increase in trading volume and open interest, and the market sentiment is bullish [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 332,720 yuan/ton, up 4.98% from December 5. As of December 11, the closing price of LME tin was 41,880 US dollars/ton, up 3.31% from December 5. The basis of Shanghai tin was 0 yuan/ton, down from 150 yuan/ton last week [10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of December 12, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.86, an increase of 0.16 from December 5. As of December 11, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.61, a decrease of 0.17 from December 4 [14] - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1960 lots, an increase of 2168 lots from December 8. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 118,433 lots, an increase of 10,033 lots or 9.26% from December 5 [19] 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 103,020.65 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. The refined tin production in October was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Processing Fees**: On December 12, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, and that for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from December 11 [31] - **Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 11, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 2,471.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,186.86 yuan/ton from December 5. In October, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75% [34][35] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,695 tons, an increase of 520 tons or 16.38% from December 4. As of December 12, the inventory of Shanghai tin was 7,391 tons, an increase of 526 tons or 7.66% from last week [43] - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On December 11, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,411.48, an increase of 2.71% from December 4 [46] - **Integrated Circuit Output**: From January to October 2025, the integrated circuit output was 386.6 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [47] - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%. The export volume was 222,589.82 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.63% [50]

锡行业分析及展望 20251204 摘要 国内锡隐形库存持续消耗，预计到 2025 年 7 月缺口将达峰值约 15,000 吨，矿贸常备库存也将降至较低水平，表明国内锡供应紧张局 面短期内难以缓解，对锡价形成支撑。 缅甸锡矿自 2025 年 8 月起逐步复工，预计 11 月产量达 1,500 吨左右， 但复产进度缓慢，即使到年底，供应缺口也仅能改善约 2000 吨，远未 达到供应宽松状态，短期内对市场影响有限。 预计 2026 年全球锡矿供应将宽松，缅甸锡矿产量有望恢复至 2.6 万吨 至 3.2 万吨，印尼锡锭出口量可能达到 6.5 万吨至 7.2 万吨，非洲地区 也有增产潜力，但具体产量受政策和投资环境影响存在不确定性。 产业链存在主动补库需求，将吸收部分原料增量，即使原料增量达到 1.6 万吨至 3 万吨，对应到实际冶炼产量上的增幅会减少大约 1 万吨， 实际增幅可能低于预期，从而影响市场供需平衡。 印尼政府的锡矿政策调整，包括外汇管制、配额管制和打击走私矿等， 可能导致其作为全球第二大锡锭供应国，整体供应稳定性逐步下降，长 期影响需持续关注。 Q&A 近期锡矿供应情况如何变化？ 自 2023 年 8 ...

遇建大宗 30 期：供应驱动锡价去何方？20251203 摘要 全球锡矿供应紧张，中国可开采年限短，海外布局受地缘政治影响，供 应链稳定性存疑。中国、印尼、缅甸三国合计占比超 50%，缅甸禁矿导 致产量下降，刚果金虽有新增产能但难对冲减量。 缅甸佤邦地区禁矿后税制改革，出口税统一收取 15%，预计 2025 年 11 月月出口量恢复至 8,000-10,000 吨，但难达往年水平。炸药及化学 药剂等问题影响提产进度。 刚果金局势加剧市场紧张，阿尔法明暂停比奇矿生产，和平谈判取消导 致冲突升级，对增产预期造成负面影响。2025 年初，刚果金西部矿区 遭遇叛乱，威胁矿区安全，运输风险加剧，市场对供应链稳定性担忧。 中国锡矿进口结构变化显著，对缅甸依赖度从 72%-85%降至 24%- 30%，缺口由非洲和南美地区补充。尽管地缘政治风险存在，但目前锡 矿供应暂时未见明显危险。 全球精炼锡产量集中在中国和印尼，两国合计占近 50%。缅甸佤邦复产 低于预期，刚果金武装冲突频繁，新增产能有限，难以弥补缅甸供应下 滑。中国冶炼厂面临加工费用跌至历史低位，环保要求增加成本。 Q&A 当前锡价上涨的主要驱动因素有哪些？ 锡价近 ...