美联储降息预期升温支撑锡价 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年08月25日 宏源期货 研究所 王文虎 （从业资格证号：F03087656， 有色金属周报(精炼锡) 缅甸佤邦锡矿完全复产仍需时间， 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472） 精炼锡 供给端：缅甸佤邦7月11日开会确定第一批40-50个硐口缴费复采（初期增量不超1万金属吨且需2-3个 月传导期，共计108个硐口），或使国内锡矿8月生产量（进口量）环比增加（增加），叠加国内锡精矿加 工费震荡趋降，或预示国内锡矿供给预期偏紧；中国再生锡8月生产量环比增加；云南及中国（江西）精炼 锡产能开工率较上周升高（持平）；中国精炼锡8月生产（库存）量环比增加（增加）；印尼8月出口量或 环比增加，进出口仍处亏损状态或使中国精炼锡8月进口（出口）量环比减少（减少）。 需求端：光伏焊带日度加工费环比有所下降，或使中国锡焊料8月产能开工率（库存量）环比下降（增 加），中国焊带8月进口（出口）量或环比减少（增加），中国镀锡板8月生产量（进口量、出口量）或环 比增加（减少、增加）。 投资策略：美联储9月降息预期有所升温，海内外锡锭总库存量环降，但因缅甸佤邦和刚果 ...

数据来源：海关总署 据海关数据显示，7月中国锡矿进口量为1.02万吨（折合约4335金属吨）环比-13.71%，同比-31.79%，较上月小幅下滑。1-7月累计进口量为7.24万吨，累计 同比-32.32%。较上月小幅下滑。非洲（刚果金、尼日利亚）进口锡精矿量级有所下滑，主因运输周期延长及刚果金电力协议谈判僵局等地缘扰动。缅甸进 口持续低迷，尽管采矿证审批通过，但雨季阻碍复产，叠加泰国陆路禁止借道运输，短期供应难改善。澳大利亚资源品位下滑制约出口潜力。 ...

专题报告 2025-08-21 缅甸复产缓慢，锡矿供给恢复有限 吴坤金 报告要点： 2025 年上半年，受缅甸佤邦锡矿复产推迟、刚果（金）地缘冲突等因素影响，中国锡矿进口量 锐减。进入三季度，中国自非洲进口的锡矿数量预计将稳步增长，但由于缅甸佤邦矿端短期内 预计难有较大放量，国内整体锡矿进口量预计将维持在偏低水平，待四季度缅甸锡矿供应逐步 放量后，中国锡矿进口数量或将显著增加。 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 刘显杰（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 有色研究员 有色金属研究 | 锡 2025 年上半年，受缅甸佤邦锡矿复产推迟、刚果（金）地缘冲突等因素影响，中国锡矿进口量 锐减。根据中国海关公布的数据，2025 年上半年中国锡矿进口量同比减少 32.42%至 6.21 万实 物吨。一方面，缅甸佤邦锡矿区复产的进程受到该地地震影响有所推迟，加之前期留有库存基 本消耗完毕，2025 年上半年中国从缅甸进口锡矿数量出现大幅下滑。根据中国海关公布数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The strengthening of tin prices on Tuesday afternoon may be related to smelter production cut expectations, but both macro and fundamental factors have limited impact. Macroscopically, the US retail sales data in July met expectations. Fundamentally, the repeated delay of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has been providing obvious support for tin prices and may have a continuous impact. In the short term, tin prices may remain volatile, with a stable macro environment and room for speculation on supply - side topics [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 268,090 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 14.36%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and fear of price increase, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [4] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from an expansion cycle to a contraction cycle [5] 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are 268,090 yuan/ton, 268,320 yuan/ton, and 268,290 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The latest price of LME Tin 3M is 33,770 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 100 US dollars and a daily increase rate of 0.3%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.92, with a daily increase of 0.01 and a daily increase rate of 0.13% [6] - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, etc. have weekly declines, with the Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingot price at 266,200 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 4,400 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.63% [12] 3.4 Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Import Data**: The latest tin import profit and loss is - 18,244.92 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 855.39 yuan and a daily decline rate of 4.92%. The processing fees of 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [16] - **Inventory Data**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,513 tons, with a daily decline of 74 tons and a daily decline rate of 0.98%. The total LME tin inventory remains unchanged at 1,655 tons [18]

Group 1 - LME inventory has decreased significantly from approximately 4,800 tons at the beginning of the year to 1,690 tons, representing a cumulative reduction of 65%, reaching a near two-year low [1] - The low inventory levels have increased the risk of short selling in LME tin, with a major holder owning 50-79% of the warehouse receipts, and concentrated long positions in the near term [1] - The LME 0-3 spot premium has expanded significantly, leading to a substantial increase in night trading for LME tin, which in turn has driven up domestic tin prices [1] Group 2 - China's tin ingot imports saw a slight decline in June, while exports increased, with the overall import level expected to decrease due to a persistently closed import window and low profit margins [2] - The domestic supply of refined tin is under pressure, with expectations of substantial outflows of tin ore in Q4 due to the reopening of mining operations in Myanmar [2] - The consumption side is facing challenges, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which is suppressing solder demand, and the electronics and automotive electronics sectors are entering a seasonal downturn, leading to weak order growth [2]

Core Points - The article discusses the historical context of smuggling activities in Southeast Asia, particularly in the Malacca Strait, highlighting the complex interplay between colonial powers and local economies [1][3][10] - It emphasizes the blurred lines between legal and illegal activities, as well as the ongoing struggle between smugglers and state authorities [1][3][11] Group 1: Historical Context - The Malacca Strait is characterized by its narrowness and shallow depth, making it a challenging area for defining international boundaries due to the cultural similarities of the residents on both sides [1][9] - The colonial division of Southeast Asia by the British and Dutch from 1865 to 1915 led to the establishment of new borders, which inadvertently fostered a large underground economy involving opium traffickers, counterfeiters, and smugglers [1][6][10] - The early civilizations in Southeast Asia lacked clear borders, allowing for a fluidity in trade and smuggling activities, particularly during the era of the Srivijaya kingdom, which thrived on controlling trade in the Malacca Strait [3][4] Group 2: Colonial Impact on Smuggling - The Dutch East India Company implemented strict monopolistic policies in the 17th century, leading to violent suppression of local populations and increased smuggling as residents sought to evade taxes [4][5] - By the 19th century, the political landscape had solidified with British and Dutch colonial expansions, leading to the establishment of trade routes and the exchange of territories, which continued to facilitate smuggling activities [5][6] - The economic interactions between colonizers and local populations were complex, with evidence of a dual economy where local producers engaged in smuggling to connect with colonial markets [11][10] Group 3: Modern Implications - The ongoing smuggling activities in Southeast Asia reflect a historical legacy of colonialism, where the boundaries established by colonial powers continue to influence economic behaviors and relationships [1][3][11] - Recent studies indicate that the economic networks among border residents are intricate, challenging the notion of a clear divide between colonial and local economies [11][10] - The article suggests that understanding the historical context of smuggling in Southeast Asia can provide insights into contemporary economic and political dynamics in the region [1][9][10]

Core Insights - China's significant breakthroughs in mineral exploration have been achieved in the first half of the year, with most mineral types exceeding the "14th Five-Year Plan" exploration targets ahead of schedule [1][2] - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective from July 1, emphasizes the protection of strategic mineral resources, ensuring national economic and defense security [2] - Investment in non-oil and gas mineral exploration reached 6.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, indicating a growing enthusiasm from enterprises for mineral exploration [2][3] Group 1: Major Discoveries - A large uranium mine was discovered in Heilongjiang Province, marking the first of its kind in the province [1] - In Hebei Province, a new rubidium resource of 3.37 million tons was identified, solidifying China's position in rubidium mining [1] - A super-large lithium deposit was found in Hunan Province, with 490 million tons of lithium ore and 1.31 million tons of lithium oxide resources submitted [1] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The revised Mineral Resources Law establishes a special protection system for strategic mineral resources, focusing on those critical for national security and emerging industries [2] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has initiated a summary evaluation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for mineral resources and is preparing strategies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 3: Investment Trends - Exploration investment in tin, bauxite, tungsten, copper, and phosphate has increased by over 50% year-on-year, with coal, lead-zinc, molybdenum, gold, and graphite also seeing growth [3] - The supply of exploration rights for strategic minerals is set to reach a ten-year high in 2024, with 581 rights to be issued [3] - China's lithium resource production has increased by over 30%, with the global share of lithium reserves rising from 6% to 16.5%, moving from sixth to second place globally [3]

Core Insights - The newly revised Mineral Resources Law emphasizes national mineral resource security and aims to establish a comprehensive system for mineral resource security [1] - The implementation of the new law is expected to create new development opportunities for high-quality growth in the mining industry, with multiple policy benefits being released [1] - There is a significant increase in investment in mineral exploration, with a 23.9% year-on-year growth in funding for non-oil and gas mineral exploration in the first half of the year [2] Group 1: Policy and Regulatory Changes - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective from July 1, introduces a mineral rights registration system and enhances the protection of mineral rights as a type of property right [1] - The law aims to improve the licensing system for mineral exploration and mining, as well as the management of transfer contracts [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has increased the supply of exploration rights, with a record 581 strategic mineral exploration rights to be issued in 2024 [5] Group 2: Investment Trends - In the first half of the year, total investment in mineral exploration reached 6.993 billion yuan, with social funding accounting for 3.359 billion yuan, indicating a growing enthusiasm among enterprises for mineral exploration [2] - Investment in various minerals such as tin, bauxite, tungsten, copper, and phosphate has seen over 50% year-on-year growth [2] - The mining rights market is becoming increasingly active, with significant transactions reported in regions like Gansu and Inner Mongolia, totaling hundreds of billions of yuan [5][6] Group 3: Market Environment - The external environment for mineral resources is currently unstable, while domestic demand for mineral resources is on the rise [4][6] - The mining industry is undergoing a transformation period, balancing development and ecological protection, necessitating a new round of strategic actions for mineral exploration [6][7] - The Ministry of Natural Resources is encouraging policy innovation and social capital involvement in mineral geological surveys to address various local issues [7]

Group 1 - In the first half of 2023, 38 new mineral sites were discovered nationwide, representing a 31% year-on-year increase, with 25 of them being large and medium-sized [1] - Significant breakthroughs were made in important mineral types, including the discovery of China's first super-large uranium mine in Heilongjiang Province and a new rubidium resource of 3.37 million tons in Hebei Province [1] - Most mineral types have completed their exploration targets ahead of schedule for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the total investment in non-oil and gas mineral exploration reached 6.993 billion yuan, a 23.9% year-on-year increase, indicating a sustained growth trend [2] - Social funding accounted for 3.359 billion yuan, a 28.2% increase, making up 48.0% of total exploration investment, reflecting increased corporate enthusiasm for mineral exploration [2] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has increased the supply of exploration rights, with 581 strategic mineral exploration rights issued in 2024, the highest in a decade, and 318 issued in the first half of 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a downturn due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with prices falling by 2.03% to 263,520 yuan/ton [1] - Tin ore supply remains tight, with smelter operating rates at low levels, and downstream demand entering a seasonal lull, leading to cautious procurement by enterprises and a sluggish spot market [1] - Domestic social inventory continues to rise, putting pressure on tin prices, while the operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly increased to 53.97% [1] Group 2 - Downstream demand is weak, particularly in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors, with a decline in orders and production rates in East China and South China [2] - The high tin prices are suppressing downstream purchasing, with companies primarily maintaining just-in-time procurement [2] - Despite the weak demand, there is no significant pressure on the supply side, as tin ore supply shortages persist and smelter production is declining, leading to a potential high-level fluctuation in tin prices [2]