证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 节后多数金属价格继续回暖，后续仍看好关键 金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼供应扰动提升市场供给偏紧预期，对镍矿价格或 有支撑 截止到 2 月 27 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 17685 美元/ 吨，较 2 月 20 日上涨 3.09%，LME 镍总库存为 287976 吨， 较 2 月 20 日增加 0.09%；沪镍报收 14.15 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 1.05%，沪镍库存为 60,791 吨，较 2 月 13 日增加 0.03%；截止到 2 月 27 日，硫酸镍报收 33 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 0.30%。根据 SMM，政策端，市场正密切关注印 尼 ESDM 于 2026 年 2 月 10 日发布 2026 年镍矿 RKAB 配 额，司长 Tri Winarno 确认本年度获批产量仅为 2.6 亿至 2.7 亿 吨。这一紧缩趋势在重点项目中尤为显著：据 Eramet 官方消 息，WBN 收到的最初配 ...

节后多数金属价格继续回暖，后续仍看好关键 金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼供应扰动提升市场供给偏紧预期，对镍矿价格或 有支撑 截止到 2 月 27 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 17685 美元/ 吨，较 2 月 20 日上涨 3.09%，LME 镍总库存为 287976 吨， 较 2 月 20 日增加 0.09%；沪镍报收 14.15 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 1.05%，沪镍库存为 60,791 吨，较 2 月 13 日增加 0.03%；截止到 2 月 27 日，硫酸镍报收 33 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 0.30%。根据 SMM，政策端，市场正密切关注印 尼 ESDM 于 2026 年 2 月 10 日发布 2026 年镍矿 RKAB 配 额，司长 Tri Winarno 确认本年度获批产量仅为 2.6 亿至 2.7 亿 吨。这一紧缩趋势在重点项目中尤为显著：据 Eramet 官方消 息，WBN 收到的最初配额仅为 1200 万湿吨，较去年的 4200 万湿吨大幅缩减。整体市场将维持供需紧平 ...

Group 1 - A landslide occurred in the Pemali district of Bangka County, Indonesia, burying 8 tin miners, with 6 confirmed dead [2][3] - The landslide happened on February 2 at around 5 PM local time while the workers were searching for tin, resulting in a sudden ground collapse [3] - Rescue operations are still ongoing to locate the remaining miners [3]

专题报告 2026-02-03 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 刘显杰（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 触及跌停，如何看待锡价后续走势？ 报告要点： 近期贵金属价格大幅回落，带动有色板块短期回归现实交易。在锡锭供需边际宽松、库存近期 稳步回升背景下，沪锡开盘跳水后跌停。整体来看，当前锡市处于紧平衡状态，但有边际宽松 预期。供给方面，12 月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，1 月、2 月预计仍有增长空间，原料端供应 紧缺显著缓解。需求方面，消费电子、马口铁等传统领域消费表现略显疲软，但新能源汽车及 AI 服务器等新兴领域带来的长期需求预期为锡价提供支撑，下游开工率持稳运行。2 月来看， 随着缅甸锡矿逐步放量，锡供需将有所改善，或对锡价上行形成压力。 有色金属研究 | 锡 供给端：12 月锡矿进口增量明显，矿端紧缺有所缓解 展望 2026 年 2 月份，多数样本企业维持稳定开工，产量变动不大，随着缅甸锡矿进口量的小 幅增长，预计国内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The global tin ore cost center is expected to rise, with a structural increase in costs. The direct cash cost is expected to grow steadily by 55% in 8 years, and the full cost will more than double [3][5]. - Tin ore (ingot) costs vary across different regions in China. Costs in most regions around the world are rising, with a significant gap between high - and low - cost production areas. Currently, tin prices have a certain premium compared to mine - end costs, and the pricing logic has shifted [31][34][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Tin Ore Cost Overview - According to ITA statistics, in 2022, the 90th - percentile cash cost and full cost of global tin ore were $23,171/ton ($161,164/ton) and $25,581/ton ($177,926/ton) respectively. It is expected that by 2030, they will rise to $36,000/ton ($250,394/ton) and $54,000/ton ($375,592/ton) [5]. China - Tin ore resources are mainly distributed in Yunnan, Guangxi, and Inner Mongolia. Representative companies are Yunnan Tin, Xingye Yinxing, and Huaxi Non - ferrous. In 2024, Yunnan Tin's tin ingot cost was about 165,500 yuan/ton, with a 3 - year CAGR of - 6.71%; Huaxi's tin concentrate cost was about 92,200 yuan/metal ton, with a 2 - year CAGR of 5.57%; Xingye's tin production cost was about 43,700 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 27.78% [9]. Myanmar (Wa State) - In the long - term, as mining continues, the open - pit tin mines in Myanmar are shifting to underground mining, resulting in higher costs and lower ore grades. Currently, low ore grades (down to 1% - 2%, some as low as 0.8%), shortages of supplies, and a 30% physical tax are pushing up the cost of tin ore mining [10][12]. Indonesia - Indonesia is the world's second - largest tin - reserve country. PT Timah, the largest tin company in Indonesia, has seen a decline in tin ore production in recent years. The cash cost of tin ingots has decreased from about 157,032 yuan/ton in 2022 to 124,390 yuan/ton in 2024, but it is still relatively high compared to low - cost production areas in Africa [16]. Congo (Kinshasa) - The Bisie tin mine is the largest core mine in Congo (Kinshasa) and one of the highest - grade tin mines in the world, with significant low - cost characteristics. Although the ore grade has declined in recent years, it remains above 3%. The AISC cost has increased in the past two years, with a 4 - year CAGR of about 2.92% [22]. Australia (Renison Project) - Renison is the only operating tin mine in Australia. In 2024, its tin production was 11,006 tons, accounting for about 2.94% of the global total. The AISC cost in 2024 was about 140,778 yuan/metal ton, with a 3 - year CAGR of about 9.57%, but it is still significantly lower than the current tin price [27]. South America - Peru's San Rafael tin mine has a cash cost of about 40,931 yuan/metal ton, with a 3 - year CAGR of about - 1.61%. Brazil's Pitinga tin - niobium - tantalum polymetallic mine, after including niobium - tantalum ore costs, has a cash cost of about 108,760 yuan/metal ton, with a 3 - year CAGR of about + 19.50% [30]. Global Cost Comparison - Most regions around the world are experiencing cost increases, except for Peru, Indonesia (tin ingots), and some Chinese companies. High - cost tin mines are mainly in Asian regions such as Myanmar, while low - cost tin mines are in African regions such as Congo (Kinshasa), Australian regions, and South American regions such as Brazil and Peru [34]. Tin Price and Cost Relationship - According to ITA predictions, by 2027, the 50th - percentile, 75th - percentile, and 90th - percentile lines of the global tin ore full - cost curve will be slightly above $20,000/ton, about $25,000/ton, and about $33,800/ton respectively. As of the end of January 2026, the LME 3M tin price has reached about $55,000/ton, higher than the full cost of 95% of tin mines, providing profit margins for most tin mines. The tin price has deviated from the 90th - percentile cost, indicating a shift in the pricing logic [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market rose rapidly under the boost of capital, with the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing as the main driving forces. The price broke through the historical high and continued to strengthen, and is currently fluctuating widely at a high level [59]. - In 2026, the tight supply of tin ore will gradually ease, showing a pattern of tight supply in the first half and loose in the second half. The operating rate of smelters will improve after the holiday. The processing fee, which has been at a low level, increased in January and has room for further growth. However, the secondary tin smelting industry still faces problems such as an inefficient waste recycling system and uncertain recycling policies [59]. - In terms of demand, the tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue its good growth trend in 2026, benefiting from the rapid development of the semiconductor industry due to computing power demand. In addition, the external demand in the traditional tin - plated sheet field is expanding, offsetting some of the negative impact of the decline in domestic demand. The future development of Sino - US trade frictions remains the biggest uncertainty [59]. - In 2026, the global interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the non - ferrous metal sector will cyclically improve. The supply side is likely to gradually loosen, while the downstream demand also has some bright spots. The supply and demand of tin are likely to remain in a tight - balanced situation. It is expected that tin prices will remain strong in 2026, with the Shanghai tin futures price mainly ranging between 350,000 - 450,000 and the LME tin price mainly between 45,000 - 60,000 [59]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review and Macroeconomic Impact - **Market Review**: In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market accelerated its upward rush, and the overall center of gravity shifted significantly. The main driving forces were the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing, while the impact of the current fundamentals was relatively weak [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Geopolitical situations are complex and changeable. The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros and restricting US companies from entering the EU market. The US will impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from eight European countries starting February 1, 2026, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting June 1. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the candidate for the new Fed chair is undetermined. Since January, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [11]. Part II: Tin Supply - Side Analysis - **Tin Ore Supply**: China's tin ore production has been declining in recent years due to over - exploitation, low - grade reserves, and limited new resource discoveries. In 2025, the production of tin concentrates in China showed a slight increase. In December 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly month - on - month. With the gradual increase in tin ore exports from the Wa State in Myanmar, the import volume is expected to increase in 2026 [17]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In 2025, the price of tin concentrates showed an upward trend, and the processing fee was weak. In 2026, with a slight improvement in ore supply, the processing fee was raised. In December 2025, the output of refined tin by domestic sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that in 2026, the supply growth rate of refined tin will be slightly higher than that in 2025, but the output in January may decrease month - on - month [20]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: In 2026, there is a trend of opening the refined tin import window. In December 2025, both imports and exports of refined tin increased. In 2025, China's net exports of refined tin were nearly 3,500 tons [23]. Part III: Tin Demand - Side Analysis - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. However, in 2025, due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and the decline in domestic demand, the production decreased significantly. In 2025, the export of tin - plated sheets increased, but the future export situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war [29]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The production of lead - acid batteries has been growing in recent years, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2025, the export of lead - acid batteries decreased year - on - year due to the impact of the trade war [30]. - **Electronic Products**: The growth cycle of electronic products is approaching the end. In 2025, the production growth rate of electronic products turned negative. It is expected that the production and sales of computers and mobile phones will decline in 2026 [35]. - **Integrated Circuits**: Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, it is expected that the production and sales of integrated circuits will continue to grow rapidly in the medium and long term [36]. - **PVC and Glass**: The production of PVC has been increasing, while the production of glass has been decreasing. Each ton of glass consumes about 22 grams of tin [41]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic industry is transforming from a high - speed development stage. In 2025, there was a rush to install photovoltaic capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW. The new tin demand in the global photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 43,000 tons, and about 20,000 tons in China [44]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. It is expected that the growth rate in 2026 will be between 15% - 20% [48]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance**: As of December 1, 2025, the combined inventory of tin in the two major exchanges was at a relatively high - middle level. The global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months since 2018. In 2025 and 2026, the supply and demand are expected to remain in a tight - balanced situation [51][55]. - **Seasonal Analysis**: Historically, tin prices are weakest in June, and the probability of decline is high in March and October. The probability of increase is high in January, April, July, and December, and the increase is relatively significant. The probability of decline in August is slightly higher than that of increase, while the probability of increase in November is higher [57]. - **Related Stocks**: The stocks of related tin industries have shown significant increases in both monthly and annual terms, such as Tin Industry Co., Ltd., Xingye Co., Ltd., etc. [58]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The report expresses optimism for key metals in the future despite recent price declines due to market panic [1] - Supply tightening expectations remain for nickel, cobalt, antimony, lithium, rare earths, tin, tungsten, and uranium, which may support prices in the coming months [1][2][8][11][13][14][22] Nickel and Cobalt Industry Summary - As of January 30, LME nickel settled at $17,540 per ton, down 5.85% from January 23, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 0.90% to 286,284 tons [1] - Supply constraints are expected due to increased rainfall in Indonesia affecting mining and shipping operations, alongside regulatory pressures leading to conservative sales strategies [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel mining quotas to 250-260 million tons, which is anticipated to support nickel prices [1][16] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 446,000 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 1.83% [2][17] Antimony Industry Summary - Antimony prices have increased, with antimony ingot averaging 162,500 yuan per ton as of January 29, up 1.25% [6] - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to production halts at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry, which may reduce output by over 2,000 tons [6][19] Lithium Industry Summary - Lithium carbonate prices fell to 160,400 yuan per ton as of January 30, down 6.22% [8] - Supply disruptions are anticipated due to environmental assessments delaying mining operations in Jiangxi, impacting future supply [8] - Demand is expected to remain strong, potentially stabilizing prices despite recent declines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Summary - The report highlights tightening supply expectations for rare earths, particularly due to new regulations in Vietnam and ongoing geopolitical tensions [20] - The global rare earth supply chain remains heavily reliant on China, which continues to dominate production capabilities [20] Tin Industry Summary - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, with LME tin settling at $54,000 per ton as of January 30, down 0.37% [11] - Supply concerns persist due to slow recovery in Myanmar and ongoing regulatory actions in Indonesia [11][12] Tungsten Industry Summary - Tungsten prices have seen significant increases, with white tungsten concentrate priced at 597,500 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 11.58% [13] - Supply constraints are expected to continue due to strict mining quotas and environmental regulations [13][21] Uranium Industry Summary - Uranium prices remain high, with global market prices at $63.51 per pound, supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors [14][22] - The report indicates a persistent supply-demand gap in the uranium market, with expectations for continued price support [14][22]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月27日，和邦生物在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司拥有的矿权中包含有色，近 期尼日利亚BCT公司已就锡矿探矿权的部分区块申请"探转采"。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term raw material supply tightness is expected to support nickel prices, with LME nickel spot price reaching $18,630 per ton, up 5.70% from January 16 [1] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 438,000 yuan per ton, down 3.74% from January 16 [2][5] - Domestic antimony supply remains tight, supporting antimony prices, with average prices for antimony ingots at 160,500 yuan per ton [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue rising, with a market average of 171,100 yuan per ton, up 8.36% from January 16 [8][19] - Supply uncertainties in the rare earth market are expected to support prices, with significant legislative changes in Vietnam impacting global supply [20] - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, with LME tin prices at $54,200 per ton, up 9.66% from January 16 [11][21] - Tungsten market supply-demand imbalance is notable, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 535,500 yuan per ton, up 5.93% from January 16 [13][22] - Uranium supply tightness is expected to persist, with global uranium prices at $63.51 per pound, significantly higher than historical lows [14][15] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with Indonesia's nickel mining production quota expected to be reduced to 250-260 million tons [1][16] - Cobalt supply is projected to remain tight, with Congo's export quotas confirmed to extend into 2026 [2][17] Antimony Industry - Antimony prices are supported by long-term supply tightness, with domestic production facing seasonal disruptions [6][18] Lithium Industry - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong due to demand support and ongoing supply constraints, with significant price increases noted [8][19] Rare Earth Industry - Legislative changes in Vietnam are tightening global rare earth supply, with China maintaining a dominant position in the market [20] Tin Industry - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry - The tungsten market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to rise further due to limited new supply [13][22] Uranium Industry - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting production [14][15]

Group 1 - The company emphasizes the importance of resource expansion and is actively monitoring industry developments to strengthen its resource project reserves [1] - The company is making efforts to enhance its tin-based mineral resource reserve capacity to ensure the security of national strategic metal resources and support sustainable development [1]