2025年1-9月，全球锡矿产量为22.31万吨。 （文华综合） 11月19日（周三），世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球精炼锡产量为 3.25万吨，消费量为2.76万吨，供应过剩0.49万吨。 2025年1-9月，全球精炼锡产量为26.02万吨，消费量为26.95万吨，供应短缺0.92万吨。 2025年9月，全球锡矿产量为2.72万吨。 ...

雷尼森矿石系统在深度和走向上保持开放，已计划和正在进行的钻探计划提供了继续增加资源库存的巨 大潜力。 绿科科技国际(00195)发布雷尼森锡矿业务矿石储量估算的最新资料雷尼森贝尔于2025年3月31日的总探 明及概略储量为750.5万公吨(锡品位为1.37%，含锡量为10.27万公吨)(经计及过去12个月的开采消耗情 况、经更新的锡价格及经修订的临界品位)：于过去的12个月，雷尼森地下的总储备矿石吨数减少8.6%; 及于过去的12个月，雷尼森地下的储量含锡减少8.5%。 储量锡品位为1.37%，加工后的锡品位为1.66%(分选后)。 ...

雷尼森矿石系统在深度和走向上保持开放，已计划和正在进行的钻探计划提供了继续增加资源库存的巨 大潜力。 储量锡品位为1.37%，加工后的锡品位为1.66%（分选后）。 智通财经APP讯，绿科科技国际(00195)发布雷尼森锡矿业务矿石储量估算的最新资料雷尼森贝尔于2025 年3月31日的总探明及概略储量为750.5万公吨(锡品位为1.37%，含锡量为10.27万公吨)(经计及过去12个 月的开采消耗情况、经更新的锡价格及经修订的临界品位)：于过去的12个月，雷尼森地下的总储备矿 石吨数减少8.6%;及于过去的12个月，雷尼森地下的储量含锡减少8.5%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai tin (SHFE) showed an overall oscillating and slightly stronger trend. On October 24, 2025, the spot price of 1 tin was 282,000 yuan/ton, with small price fluctuations and little change in the basis [11]. - In September 2025, the refined tin output was 9,770 tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, and is expected to return to normal in October. The domestic tin ore output from January to August was 50,200 tons, showing a slight year - on - year increase. The resumption process of tin mines in Myanmar has affected the price range [11]. - In September, the demand growth rates of integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained good, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers, some white goods, and photovoltaics slowed down. In October, the demand in emerging sectors is expected to maintain its resilience, while the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted [11]. - The tin ore supply remains tight, and the processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain at a low level under the influence of ore supply disruptions [11]. - LME inventory increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and social inventory increased slightly week - on - week [11]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the semiconductor and automobile industries are generally on an upward trend. There is still high uncertainty overseas, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the future. With the repeated disruptions in the ore supply, the recommended trading strategy is to take a long - biased approach, with the weekly support level around 272,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: SHFE tin oscillated slightly stronger last week. The spot price of 1 tin was 282,000 yuan/ton on October 24, 2025, with small price fluctuations and little change in the basis [11]. - **Supply**: In September 2025, refined tin output was 9,770 tons, decreasing due to factory maintenance, and is expected to return to normal in October. The domestic tin ore output in August was 6,854.21 tons, showing a slight month - on - month increase [11][43]. - **Demand**: In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC increased well, while traditional sectors like computers and some white goods slowed down. In October, emerging sectors are expected to maintain demand resilience, and some traditional sectors will adjust [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: The tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are declining weakly. Profits will remain low under ore supply disruptions [11]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and social inventory increased slightly week - on - week [11][28][32]. - **Strategy**: Take a long - biased approach, with the weekly support level around 272,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. Sell out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to macro - policies, disruptions in Myanmar and Congo tin mines, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data [11]. 3.2 Industry Chain Structure The report mentions the tin industry chain, but no detailed content is provided. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets The report shows the SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no detailed analysis is provided [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of October 23, 2025, SHFE inventory was 5,470 tons, decreasing slightly week - on - week. As of October 22, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,720 tons, increasing slightly week - on - week [28]. - As of October 19, 2025, the refined tin social inventory was 7,925 tons, increasing slightly week - on - week [32]. 3.5 Cost and Profit As of October 23, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees continued to be weak [38]. 3.6 Supply - In September 2025, refined tin output was 9,770 tons, decreasing due to factory maintenance, and is expected to return to normal in October. The domestic tin ore output in August was 6,854.21 tons, showing a slight month - on - month increase [43]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 64.23%, showing a decline [50]. 3.7 Demand - In September 2025, China's automobile output was 3.227 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. In August 2025, China's electronic computer output was 32.66 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8% [54]. - In September 2025, China's PVC output was 2.0307 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. In September 2025, China's mobile electronic communication output was 150.29 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4% [57]. - In September 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. China's refrigerator output in September 2025 was 10.1275 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [61]. - In September 2025, China's washing machine output was 11.7848 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. China's color TV output in September 2025 was 20.6305 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [65]. - In September 2025, China's solar energy output was 70.87 million kilowatts, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. China's integrated circuit output in September 2025 was 43.7 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [69]. 3.8 Import and Export In September 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of tin ore, 1,269 tons of tin ingots, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin [74]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table The report provides a tin balance sheet from 2017 to 2025E, showing the production, demand, and supply - demand balance of China and the world in different years [77].

Core Insights - In 2025, China is expected to discover over 80 new mineral sites, with an additional proven geological reserve of approximately 2.5 billion tons of ore equivalent, representing a year-on-year growth of around 20% [1][4]. Group 1: Mineral Exploration Achievements - This year, China's mineral exploration has yielded significant results, with over 80 new mineral sites discovered, of which approximately 70% are large and medium-sized [1]. - Lithium exploration results are leading globally, with China's lithium reserves expected to increase to about 20% of the global total [3]. - New reserves of bauxite are projected to be around 300 million tons, coal about 12 billion tons, oil over 1 billion tons, and reserves of tungsten, tin, and phosphate are expected to grow by approximately 25% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Strategic and Green Mining Initiatives - The newly added mineral reserves are expected to alleviate China's mineral import pressure and optimize the mineral structure, with strategic minerals accounting for over 40% [6]. - The growth rate of strategic emerging minerals exceeds 50%, significantly outpacing traditional minerals, providing high-quality raw material support for the mining industry [6]. - The proportion of green exploration projects has reached 90%, with carbon emission intensity reduced by 15% compared to the previous year, and ecological restoration projects covering 95% of exploration areas [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company is making progress on its projects, including the Silverman Phase II and the expansion of Yubang Mining, while also optimizing the construction plan for the Achmmach tin mine in Morocco [2]. Group 1: Silverman Phase II - Silverman Phase II has received project approval and is actively communicating with local government to expedite the construction permit process [2]. Group 2: Yubang Mining Expansion - Yubang Mining's annual production expansion project of 8.25 million tons is currently in the process of applying for construction permits from the Ministry of Emergency Management [2]. Group 3: Achmmach Tin Mine Project - The Achmmach tin mine project in Morocco is undergoing optimization of its construction plan, and construction will commence once the design optimization is completed [2].

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a tight supply situation, but expectations for marginally looser supply in the long term are increasing due to the gradual resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State tin mines. Demand recovery is slow, leading to limited overall demand growth and continued price fluctuations in the tin market [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The domestic tin ore market remains relatively tight, with a slight decline in tin concentrate imports in September. Imports from Myanmar are increasing, while imports from other major producing countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo are decreasing but still within normal ranges [1]. - Tin processing fees are maintaining low levels, and the raw material inventory of major domestic tin smelting enterprises is generally below 30 days, indicating a tight supply situation [1]. - The increase in operating rates in Yunnan is primarily due to seasonal maintenance completion at large smelting plants, but the driving force for sustained recovery in operating rates remains insufficient due to ongoing tight raw material supply [1]. Group 2: Demand Trends - Recent declines in tin prices have led to increased willingness among downstream buyers to inquire and purchase, resulting in slight improvements in spot trading. However, overall consumption recovery remains limited, particularly in the home appliance sector [2]. - There has been a notable increase in domestic mobile phone shipments in July, indicating a recovery in demand in the mobile market, with consumer purchasing willingness strengthening. The release of new products may further boost electronic product order levels, contingent on improvements in terminal order levels [2]. - The overall performance of consumption is currently poor, with the recovery in the terminal market during the peak season not meeting expectations. International trade tensions are negatively impacting the semiconductor market [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand of tin is in a short - term tight balance. In the global macro - loose cycle, the medium - term demand is not pessimistic. However, in the short term, there is an expected increase in supply due to the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, and the growth of tin demand from consumer electronics is not obvious. So, it is not recommended to chase high prices, and buying on dips may have a higher probability of success [2][16] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - side - In September 2025, the refined tin output was 9,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative refined tin output was 127,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.95%. The smelter's operating rate in September was 38.6%, and some enterprises had maintenance in September [5] - In Yunnan, most smelters' output decreased month - on - month, with some having maintenance and production stagnation, and the tin ore supply was still tight. In Guangxi, enterprises' output decreased significantly due to maintenance and tight raw materials. In Jiangxi, the smelter output decreased slightly due to tight raw materials and policy reasons [5] - In October 2025, as large smelters resume production and most sample enterprises maintain stable operation, the domestic refined tin output is expected to rise to about 14,500 tons [5] - Due to the slow increase in the output of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, China's overall tin ore imports remain at a low level, and tin ingot supply has been low. In the fourth quarter, tin ingot supply may increase significantly after the supply of tin mines in Myanmar gradually expands [2][16] Demand - side - In Q3 2025, the global PC shipments increased by 10% year - on - year, the highest since the peak demand during the 2022 pandemic. The growth rate of mobile phone consumption rebounded slightly, with a year - on - year increase of 2%. IDC predicts that the global smartphone shipments in 2025 will increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units. The emerging 3C electronic consumption areas driven by AI are still in the initial stage and have little impact on overall demand [8] - The construction of 5G communication equipment and large - scale data center servers requires a large number of circuit boards and connection components, and the tin consumption is increasing steadily. With continuous investment in global AI - related capital expenditure, the server scale is growing rapidly. IDC data predicts that AI server shipments will increase by 26% year - on - year to 1.895 million units in 2025 and continue to grow in 2026 [8] - In September 2025, China's automobile sales reached 3.226 million, a record high for the same period, with a year - on - year increase of 14.9%. New energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [8] - Other non - semiconductor demand is relatively stable. Tin consumption in the tinplate field has declined slightly as aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. The output of PVC has increased slightly year - on - year in the first three quarters, and PVC stabilizers are a major consumer of tin compounds [12] - Downstream new energy vehicles and AI servers continue to be booming, traditional consumer electronics and home appliances are experiencing a mild recovery, while the photovoltaic field is relatively weak due to over - capacity and trade frictions [2][16]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian President stated that illegal tin mining and smuggling result in an annual loss of approximately 300 trillion to 400 trillion Indonesian Rupiah for the country [1]. Group 1 - Illegal tin mining and smuggling are significant issues affecting Indonesia's economy [1]. - The estimated financial loss due to these activities ranges from 300 trillion to 400 trillion Indonesian Rupiah annually [1].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia is taking significant measures to combat illegal tin mining, which is expected to impact global tin supply and prices in the coming years [2][3]. Group 1: Tin Production and Market Impact - Indonesia is the world's second-largest producer of tin concentrate and refined tin, with an estimated tin concentrate production of approximately 50,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 16.7% of global production [1][3]. - The crackdown on illegal smelting operations is projected to lead to a 30.7% year-on-year decline in Indonesia's refined tin production in 2024, reaching 49,900 tons, the lowest level in over 20 years, representing 13.4% of global refined tin output [1][3]. - The Indonesian government's actions to close 1,000 illegal tin mines and block smuggling routes could prevent potential losses of up to 22 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 1.2 billion USD) from September to December 2025, and 45 trillion Rupiah (approximately 2.6 billion USD) in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes and Supply Chain Dynamics - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has reverted the RKAB approval process from a three-year to an annual basis, effective from 2026, requiring companies to resubmit new annual production quotas [4]. - The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa State is lagging behind expectations, with only about 1,200 tons exported in August, contributing to a continued supply gap in the overall tin market [4]. Group 3: Demand Trends and Future Outlook - The demand for tin is expected to rise significantly due to the increased tin consumption in AI servers, with estimates indicating that a single NVIDIA NVL72GB300 server consumes approximately 4.71 kg of tin, substantially higher than traditional servers [4]. - The annual growth rate of tin consumption in global AI servers is projected to reach 44.5%, with an expected consumption of 34,000 tons by 2030, which could represent 9% of the current global tin demand of 372,700 tons in 2024 [5]. - Long-term prospects for tin prices are optimistic due to limited new supply capacity and growing demand from emerging sectors such as AI, robotics, and steady growth in electric vehicles and photovoltaics [5].