锰硅供需关系

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永安期货:锰硅下行空间不大
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-12 00:30
Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy in July initially boosted market sentiment, leading to a rapid increase in ferrosilicon prices, but by the end of July, the bullish momentum weakened, resulting in a bearish fluctuation pattern for ferrosilicon futures [1] - As of August, the cost center for ferrosilicon slightly decreased, with production costs in Inner Mongolia dropping from 6036 CNY/ton to approximately 5939 CNY/ton, a decline of about 97 CNY/ton [2] - The profit margin for ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia fell to -147 CNY/ton by the end of August, a significant drop from 83 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month, although it showed improvement compared to the losses in the second quarter [3] Group 2 - The production volume of ferrosilicon in August was 910,000 tons, an 11% increase month-on-month, while demand remained stable at approximately 860,000 tons [3] - The market is experiencing a "not-so-dull" off-season due to optimistic orders in the plate market, which supports the rigid demand for ferrosilicon [3] - The upcoming "Golden September" season's expectations will be a focal point for the market, as the current ferrosilicon futures have already priced in some negative supply-demand expectations, limiting further downside potential [3]