交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报3.23-3.27 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 硅锰市场震荡运行，成本端矿价持续上涨，化工焦本周上涨一轮50元/吨，生产端，内蒙古本周个别工厂存在检修情 况，察右前旗一台炉子今日点火，暂未出铁，北方内蒙宁夏部分工厂表示四月开始要减产30%，具体减产需观望厂家 实际动作，南方个别工厂经过高位套保，近期有开炉计划，但据调研结果生产成本为6200-6300，目前开工厂家依然 较少，预计合金产量小幅上涨。钢厂端，河钢最新招标5100吨，询盘6300元/吨，目前定价在博弈当中，重点观望合 金厂减产情况以及钢招进展，预计硅锰短期成本坚挺，价格存在支撑。 下周行情预测： 预计短期内市场短期仍坚挺为主。 2 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元 ...

每日观点 锰硅2601： 2 1.基本面：供需基本面无较大变动，十月份经济会议召开，宏观政策对市场的影响有待验证，短期硅锰市场仍将维持 "偏弱暂稳" 格局，后市硅锰合金价格需关注钢招定价对市场的指引以及经济会议对市场的影响；中性。 2.基差：现货价5720元/吨，01合约基差-90元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20向下，01合约期价收于MA20下方。偏空。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2601：5700-5830震荡运行。 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-01 2022-05-01 2022-12-01 2023-07-01 2024-02-01 2024-09-01 2025-04-01 硅锰：FeMn65Si17：市场价：天津（日） 硅锰： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The supply and demand fundamentals of manganese silicon have not changed significantly. The impact of macro policies on the market after the economic meeting in October remains to be verified. The short - term silicon - manganese market will maintain a "weak and temporarily stable" pattern. The future price of silicon - manganese alloy needs to focus on the guidance of steel procurement pricing and the impact of the economic meeting on the market. It is expected that the price of manganese silicon will fluctuate this week, with SM2601 oscillating between 5700 - 5850 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: The document shows the monthly production capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises [7]. - **Annual Production**: It presents the annual production of silicon - manganese in different regions of China, including Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas, as well as the total annual production in China [9]. - **Weekly, Monthly Production and开工率**: The weekly and monthly production of silicon - manganese in China and the weekly operating rate of silicon - manganese enterprises in China are shown [12]. - **Regional Production**: It includes the monthly production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [13][14]. Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Procurement Price**: The monthly procurement prices of silicon - manganese 6517 by various steel companies such as Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu E'gang, Chengde Jianlong, etc. are presented [17]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: The weekly daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China are shown [19]. Manganese Silicon Import and Export - The monthly import and export quantities of ferromanganese - silicon in China are presented [21]. Manganese Silicon Inventory - The weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, the monthly average available days of inventory in China, and the monthly average available days of inventory in the Northern Region and East China are shown [23]. Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: The monthly import volumes of manganese ore from different sources such as Gabon, Africa, and Australia to China are presented [25]. - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: The weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, the weekly port inventory in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available days of inventory in China are shown [27]. - **High - grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: The weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore from different origins such as Australia, Gabon, and Brazil in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port is presented [29]. - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: The daily price of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port is presented [30]. - **Regional Cost**: The daily cost of silicon - manganese in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, the Northern Region, Ningxia, the Southern Region, and Guangxi is presented [31]. Manganese Silicon Profit - The daily profit of silicon - manganese in different regions such as the Northern Region, the Southern Region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi is presented [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental driving force of the silicon-manganese market is limited, and more attention should be paid to emotional changes. It is expected that the price of silicon-manganese alloy will fluctuate within a narrow range before the National Day [3]. - The basis of the 01 contract is -48 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [3]. - The inventory of 63 independent silicon-manganese enterprises in the country is 221,800 tons, and the average available days of inventory for 50 steel mills in the country is 15.49 days, which is neutral [3]. - The MA20 is flat, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20, which is neutral [3]. - The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [3]. - It is expected that the price of silicon-manganese will fluctuate this week, and SM2601 will fluctuate between 5,800 and 6,020 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese-Silicon Supply Capacity - There is a chart showing the monthly production capacity of silicon-manganese enterprises in China [7][8]. Annual Production - There is a chart showing the annual production of silicon-manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and the whole country [9][10]. Weekly, Monthly Production and Operating Rate - There is a chart showing the weekly and monthly production of silicon-manganese in China and the weekly operating rate of silicon-manganese enterprises in China [12][11]. Regional Production - There are charts showing the monthly production of silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average production of silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [13][14]. Manganese-Silicon Demand Steel Tendering Purchase Price - There are charts showing the monthly purchase prices of silicon-manganese 6517 by Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron & Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. [16][17]. Daily Average Hot Metal and Profitability - There is a chart showing the weekly daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China [18][19]. Manganese-Silicon Import and Export - There is a chart showing the monthly import and export quantities of ferromanganese-silicon in China [20][21]. Manganese-Silicon Inventory - There are charts showing the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon-manganese enterprises in China, the monthly average available days of silicon-manganese inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region [22][23]. Manganese-Silicon Cost Manganese Ore Import Volume - There is a chart showing the monthly import volume of manganese ore by trade method, from Gabon to China, from southern Africa to China, and from Australia to China [24][25]. Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days - There are charts showing the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available days of manganese ore inventory in China [26][27]. High-Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory - There is a chart showing the weekly port inventory of Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port [28][29]. Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price - There is a chart showing the daily prices of South African semi-carbonate manganese ore, Australian manganese ore, and Gabonese manganese ore in Tianjin Port [30]. Regional Cost - There is a chart showing the daily cost of silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [31][32]. Manganese-Silicon Profit - There is a chart showing the daily profit of silicon-manganese in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [33][34].