Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's nickel supply is surging, leading the world's largest nickel producer to warn of an impending oversupply in the nickel market, raising questions about the future direction of the global nickel market [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Indonesia's nickel production is experiencing a significant increase, contributing to a potential oversupply situation in the global market [1] - The world's largest nickel producer has issued a warning regarding the imbalance between supply and demand, indicating that the market may face excess supply [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The anticipated oversupply in the nickel market could lead to price adjustments and impact the profitability of companies involved in nickel production and trading [1] - Stakeholders in the nickel industry are advised to closely monitor these developments as they could influence investment strategies and market positioning [1]

Group 1 - The global nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied in the coming years due to capacity expansion and slowing demand for nickel used in batteries and stainless steel [1] - Indonesia, the largest nickel producer with a market share of approximately 63%, has seen a surge in new nickel supply, leading to a 50% drop in benchmark prices over the past three years [1] - Macquarie analyst Jim Lennon predicts that the oversupply will continue until 2027-2028, with the three-month nickel price on the London Metal Exchange currently at $15,500 per ton [1] Group 2 - Nickel demand growth is being hindered by the increasing use of cheaper lithium iron phosphate batteries, with Lennon revising the 2030 nickel demand forecast for the battery industry down to 967,000 tons from a previous consensus of 1.5 million tons [2] - Approximately one-quarter of global nickel producers are experiencing losses on a cash cost basis due to oversupply and falling prices [2] - Indonesian nickel pig iron smelters are facing profit margin compression, which may lead to reduced output and potential widespread cutbacks or shutdowns among smaller smelters in the near future [2]