1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The near - term trading logic of nickel and stainless - steel futures is mainly the uncertainty of nickel ore supply, while the medium - to - long - term trading logic focuses on the fundamentals, with the demand increment in the new energy field being more important [2][3][6]. - The current nickel and stainless - steel basis and monthly spreads are stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities [8]. - The nickel and stainless - steel futures markets showed a weak and volatile trend this week, affected by factors such as macro - economic indicators, nickel ore disturbances, and the overall macro - economic environment [12]. - The profits of the upstream and downstream of the nickel industry chain are relatively under pressure, but there is still support at the bottom [35]. - The supply of the nickel industry chain is relatively stable, and the demand is weak overall, with some growth in the new energy field and stable demand in the stainless - steel sector [38][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The nickel futures market was mainly volatile this week, with limited actual adjustments in the fundamentals. Concerns in the nickel ore sector focus on government sanctions, cost increases after environmental optimization, and potential lower - than - expected quota approvals. The new energy sector still provides support, and the price of MHP and nickel salts has increased due to the extension of the cobalt export ban in Congo. The price of nickel iron has declined recently, and the stainless - steel market has entered a phase of inventory accumulation [2]. - The near - term trading logic is dominated by the uncertainty of nickel ore supply, and the long - term trading logic focuses on the fundamentals, especially the demand increment in the new energy field [3][6]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The current nickel and stainless - steel basis and monthly spreads are stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities [8]. - The previous strategies of buying the SHFE nickel 2511 futures contract and the SHFE nickel 2511 call option 130000 have been exited [8]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of SHFE nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [8]. - For inventory management, it is recommended to short SHFE nickel futures and sell call options to hedge risks. For procurement management, it is recommended to buy SHFE nickel forward contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [9]. - The predicted price range of stainless steel is 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton, and similar risk - management strategies are recommended for stainless - steel inventory and procurement [9][10]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Congo is expected to extend the cobalt export ban and announce the total export quotas for 2025 and 2026. The Indonesian forestry working group took over the PT Weda Bay Nickel mine, and the Indonesian Energy Ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The Indonesian APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, and Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [11]. - **Negative Information**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist, and the spot trading of stainless steel is relatively weak [11]. - **Neutral Information**: Indonesia will approve the 2026 nickel ore quota in October [11]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The nickel and stainless - steel futures markets showed a weak and volatile trend this week. The price of nickel was mainly affected by macro - economic indicators and nickel ore disturbances, and the price of stainless steel was restricted by the overall macro - economic environment. The net short positions of the main contracts decreased before the holiday, and the market sentiment was cautious [12]. - **Fund Flows**: The net positions of key profitable seats decreased, and some institutions began to reduce their positions. The inflow of funds into stainless - steel futures was more cautious, with some funds opening short positions at high prices and reducing positions for observation during the week [13]. - **External Market**: The external market trend was basically consistent with the domestic market. The nickel ore disturbances in Indonesia and the fluctuation of the US dollar index affected the market. The inventory of LME nickel was difficult to deplete, suppressing the upward space [28]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - The profits of the upstream and downstream of the nickel industry chain are relatively under pressure. The profit space of producing electrolytic nickel by different processes is meager, and some pyrometallurgical production lines are in a state of continuous loss. The profit of selling MHP and nickel sulfate in the new energy integrated production chain is still positive, and the profit of the nickel - iron end has improved but has not turned positive [35]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain is relatively stable. The inventory of nickel ore raw materials at domestic ports is at a high level, and the production of domestic enterprises has returned to normal. The production of domestic nickel iron and Indonesian nickel iron shows a seesaw effect, and the production of nickel iron and stainless steel may be slightly stronger in the future [38]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The overall demand of the nickel industry chain is weak. The demand in the new energy field has some growth momentum due to the increase in new - energy vehicle sales. The demand in the stainless - steel sector is stable, with an expected increase in demand during the peak season in September and October. Attention should be paid to the impact of EU stainless - steel tariffs on exports [42]. 3.5.3 Balance Interpretation - In the short - term supply - demand balance, the supply side is relatively abundant, with continuous production expansion in Indonesia and China. The main variable in the supply - demand balance lies in the new energy demand. The marginal increment of stainless - steel demand is limited, and the marginal increment of the new energy sector has also weakened recently. Attention should be paid to the performance of stainless steel during the peak season and the development of the new energy sector [50].