Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term, there is no obvious downward trend for nickel and stainless steel [1] - The increase of Indonesia's quota to 3.2 billion tons needs verification, the premium has increased, the supply of Philippine nickel ore is expected to increase, and the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the pricing of Indonesia's premium and discount for nickel ore in June [3] - The price of nickel iron has stabilized, some steel mills in China and Indonesia plan to cut production, which mainly affects the output of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel. The demand is sluggish in the off - season, and there are many low - priced resources in the market. The nickel salt in the new energy chain has declined due to the impact of nickel price [3] - The subsequent focus is on the spot trading volume and the trend of the external market [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Management Strategies - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.17%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 3.2% [2] - Inventory management strategies include shorting Shanghai nickel futures to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, selling call options, and buying Shanghai nickel forward contracts to lock in production costs [2] - Procurement management strategies include selling put options and buying out - of - the - money call options to deal with the concern of rising raw material prices [2] Market Conditions Nickel - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 121,250 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; the closing price of LME nickel 3M is 15,510 US dollars/ton, with a 0.11% increase [6] - The trading volume is 73,462 lots, the open interest is 91,891 lots, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 22,038 tons, a decrease of 0.09% [6] - The basis of the main contract is - 1,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31.1% [6] Stainless Steel - The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,630 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; the closing price of stainless - steel contract No.1 is 12,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% [7] - The trading volume is 75,047 lots, the open interest is 85,193 lots, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 129,690 tons, a decrease of 0.23% [7] - The basis of the main contract is 985 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51% [7] Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 41,553 tons, a decrease of 836 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 201,462 tons, an increase of 1,152 tons [8] - The social inventory of stainless steel is 967.5 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons, an increase of 1,907.5 tons [8] Market Influencing Factors Positive Factors - China and the US have reached a tariff agreement - The Philippine government plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025 [4] Negative Factors - The rainy season in the Philippines is ending, and the supply of nickel ore is gradually increasing - The inventory of stainless steel remains at a high level, and the demand shows no obvious improvement - Multiple stainless - steel trading countries have launched anti - dumping investigations [4]