交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年8月26日 6、结论：沪镍2510：20均线上下震荡运行。 1、基本面：外盘休市。产业链上，矿价继续维稳，镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线坚挺。不锈钢库存有所 回升，接下来要期待金九银十能否提振消费，去库存。新能源汽车产销数据较好，但三元电池装车量同 比下降，总体需求提振受限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121250，基差940，偏多 3、库存：LME库存209748，0（休市），上交所仓单22292，-260，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格上涨，短期镍矿价格稳定，海运费坚挺，镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线坚挺， 不锈钢库存回升，后期关注金九银十的消费情况。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格13800，基差920，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：101687，-238，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、结论：不锈钢2510：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行。 多空因素 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F302 ...

观望，或逢低轻仓做多，参考11.95-12.4。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 120310 | 700 09-10月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -240 | -90 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14975 | 35 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 111421 | 9036 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -36593 | -1224 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 209748 | 150 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 26943 | -19 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 7998 | 24 | | | 仓单数量:沪 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，8月26日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一，沪铜涨0.44%，不锈钢涨0.35%，沪铅 涨0.18%，沪锡涨0.07%，沪镍涨0.05%，沪铝持平，沪锌跌0.27%，氧化铝跌0.60%。 ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 海外宏观回暖，铜价强势运行 核心观点 沪铜 上周五夜盘铜价增仓上行，今日铜维持强势运行，尾盘拉升，主 力期价接近 8 万关口。宏观层面，北京时间 22 日 22 时杰克逊霍尔会 议上美联储主席鲍威尔发言偏鸽，市场风险偏好明显回升，美元指 数下挫，利好铜价。产业端，国内临近旺季，电解铜社库呈现去 化，产业支撑增强。预计铜价维持强势运行，关注 8 万关口多空博 弈。 沪铝 上周五夜盘铝价呈现上行趋势，今日铝价维持震荡运行。宏观层 面，海外降息 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价继续偏弱运行，周初成交清淡，随着镍价进一步回落，成交有所好转。产业链上， 矿价继续维稳，镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线坚挺。不锈钢库存有所回升，接下来要期待金九银十能否提 振消费，去库存。新能源汽车产销数据较好，但三元电池装车量同比下降，总体需求提振受限。中长线 过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货120550，基差940，偏多 3、库存：LME库存209748，+150，上交所仓单22552，-36，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：20均线上下震荡运行。 不锈钢 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年8月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格 ...

镍&不锈钢：持续偏弱震荡，等待明确信号 8月22日风险管理日报 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 不锈钢区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.25-1.31 | 9.27% | 1.8% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 沪镍风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 策略等级（满分5） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风险 | NI主力合约 | 卖出 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of U.S. economic data on interest rate expectations, particularly the reduction of bets on two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year due to a rise in the S&P Global Composite PMI to 55.4, the highest in eight months [1] - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest rise since late May, while continuing claims rose by 30,000 to 1.972 million, the highest since November 2021 [1] - Nickel futures experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai nickel main contract showing a trading volume of 90,715 lots and an open interest of 102,385 lots, while London nickel prices fell by 0.45% [1] Group 2 - The stainless steel main contract also saw fluctuations, with a trading volume of 99,736 lots and an open interest of 138,810 lots, indicating weak market transactions and an expanding basis premium [1] - Inventory levels showed a decrease in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while production in August increased, but terminal demand remained weak, suggesting that prices may follow macroeconomic fluctuations [1] - The article suggests a cautious approach to trading in both nickel and stainless steel markets, advising to observe market conditions due to the potential changes in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 22 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 镍弱势运行 核心观点 沪铜 本周沪铜偏弱运行，持仓量变化不大，振幅下降。盘面上看，本 周国内商品氛围冷却，有色板块承压运行。宏观层面，市场持续关 注杰克逊霍尔会议动向，北京时间 22 日 22 时美联储主席鲍威尔将发 言，这是美联储 9 月议息会议前的重要讲话，若鲍威尔表现偏鸽，则 利好铜价。 沪铝 本周沪铝探底回升，持仓量呈现减仓下行增仓上行。盘面上看， 本周国内商品氛围冷却，有色板块承压运行，铝价强于板块。产业层 面，周四电解铝社库小幅去化，下游铝棒库存持续缓慢去化。宏观氛 围冷却， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the mixed performance of basic metal futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange during the night session on August 22, with some metals experiencing gains while others saw declines [1][2]. Group 2 - Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.58% [1] - Shanghai copper rose by 0.20% [1] - Shanghai lead gained 0.18% [1] - Alumina saw a slight increase of 0.06% [1] - Shanghai zinc decreased by 0.16% [1] - Stainless steel fell by 0.27% [1] - Shanghai tin dropped by 0.30% [1] - Shanghai nickel declined by 0.36% [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance with most seeing inflation as a higher risk than employment. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy has increased nickel supply costs, and the domestic nickel ore market shows a tight supply situation. Refined nickel production has slightly increased, while on the demand - side, stainless - steel mills are increasing production and new - energy vehicle sales are rising, but ternary battery demand is limited. Recently, nickel prices have declined, improving the downstream purchasing atmosphere, with domestic and overseas inventories decreasing. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, there is a divergence between long and short positions, and the nickel price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 11.95 - 12.4 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 119,830 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread is - 130 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,045 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Nickel is 102,385 lots, an increase of 51,529 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is - 32,546 lots, a decrease of 1,310 lots. LME nickel inventory is 209,346 tons, an increase of 18 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory is 26,962 tons, an increase of 768 tons. The warrant quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 22,588 tons, an increase of 29 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,200 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,270 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 195.01 dollars/ton, up 10.18 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 dollars/ton. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 2.22 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.04 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 104.14 million tons, an increase of 19.32 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 169.81 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.02 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most thought inflation was a higher risk than employment, sending a hawkish signal. The National Energy Administration released that the total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the photovoltaic industry's competition order and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].