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沪镍期货日报-20251010
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 11:56
研究品种:沪镇 图 1:沪镍主力合约收盘价走势 来源:文华财经 研究咨询:028 6130 3163 邮箱:institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 成文日期: 20251009 报告周期:日度 研究员:曹柏泉 期货咨询证号 (F03122015&Z0019820) 期货日报 1. 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 今日(20251009)国庆中秋长假后首个交易日,内盘基本金属 迎来全面上涨行情。沪镍主力 2511 合约日内表现强势,开盘后一路 震荡上行,日线呈大阳线,报收 124480 元/吨。 1.2 期货行情数据 | 表 1: 沪镍期货行情表 20251009 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨 幅% | 成交量 | 振幅% | 持仓 量 | 日増仓 | | 沪镇 2511 | 12448 | 2900 | 2.39 | 13086 | 1.31 | 86038 | 9898 | | | ...
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20251010
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 11:53
大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 1 / 29 有色金属衍生品日报 第一部分 市场研判 铜 【市场回顾】 1.期货:今日沪铜 2511 合约收于 85910 元/吨,持平昨日结算价,沪铜指数增仓 13556 手至 57.82 万手。 2.现货:临近周末沪铜现货采购情绪抬升,现货升水企稳,报升水 20 元/吨,较上一交易日 上涨 5 元/吨。广东和天津地区由于铜价高位,下游消费延续疲软,持平于上一交易日。广 东报升水 30 元/吨,天津报贴水 210 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 周四,威廉姆斯表示:"劳动力市场进一步放缓的风险是我非常关注的事情。"他认为, 如果经济如预期发展——通胀率升至 3%左右,失业率微升至当前 4.3%以上——他将支持 "今年降息"。 2. 周四,美联储理事巴尔表示,在上个月启动首次降息之后,美联储在进一步调整政策立 场时应当保持谨慎,因为物价上涨速度仍然过快。 3. 周四,据媒体援引一位知情的美国劳工部官员称,美国劳工统计局(BLS)已召回部分 员工,以准备发布一份关键的通胀报告——9 月份的消费者价格指数(CPI)报告,这份报 告对 ...
沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251010
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:21
大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资:F3023048 投资咨询证:Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面:外盘冲高回落。基本面上,镍矿价格继续坚挺,镍铁价格维稳,下方支撑依旧有力。不锈 钢去库存化良好,金九银十表现较佳。新能源汽车产销数据良好,但随着电池端的技术替代,镍的需求 增长或受限,三元电池装车量环比下降。从中长线来看镍的过剩局格不变。偏空 2、基差:现货123600,基差-880,偏空 3、库存:LME库存236892,+4260,上交所仓单24775,-42,偏空 4、盘面:收盘价收于20均线以上,20均线向上,偏多 5、主力持仓:主力持仓净空,空增,偏空 6、结论:沪镍2511:宽幅震荡思路,逢高仍可试空。 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月10日 利多: 利空: 1、金九银十需求提振预期 2、反内卷政策 3、成本线12万 ...
上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一,沪铜涨0.86%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-09 22:15
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经AI快讯,10月10日,上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘全线上涨。沪铜涨0.86%,沪锡涨0.82%,沪锌 涨0.61%,沪铝涨0.45%,沪铅涨0.44%,沪镍涨0.41%,不锈钢涨0.35%,氧化铝涨0.31%。 ...
华宝期货国债期货早报-20251009
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 07:44
板块资金流向 (%) 30 - 25 _ 20 – 15 l 10 – 5 - 0 - -5 - the 17 the the All y 1 the WND WND 板块成交额变化 (%) 30 - 20 – 10 – 0 -10 – -20 – -30 - -40 - 11 1 ten 1 3 4 1/2 4 3 2 1 0 沪 猛 铁 硅 焦 热 焦 螺 不 玻 P 原 燃 动 L 铅 硅 贮 铁 煤 轧 炭 纹 锈 璃 V 油 油 力 P 铝 碳 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 金 银 铝 镍 锌 锡 铜 開用 100 50 0 -50 -100 分 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 版本 如果 xa | 娱乐场 您现 E P G 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - 0 相 解软 1/2 カカ堂 足 粗 铝 铝 锌 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 ...
下游需求尚未显著改善 沪镍持续上行动能有限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-09 07:08
产业上,中辉期货指出,海外印尼政局对于镍矿供应影响有限,目前国内镍产业链内部供需有所分化, 精炼镍供应过剩压力较大,而硫酸镍环节相对偏紧。9月最新国内纯镍社会库存约4.08万吨,环比虽小 幅去化,但远期供应压力犹存。 10月9日,国内期市能化板块跌幅居前。其中,沪镍期货盘中高位震荡运行,截至发稿主力合约大幅上 涨2.24%,报124300.00元/吨。 宏观面,美联储纪要:多数官员称今年继续宽松可能适宜,少数人本来可能支持9月不降息。 后市来看,南华期货(603093)表示,国庆假期期间,外盘镍价整体偏强,主要受印尼政策不确定性推 升风险溢价。上游镍矿出货预期收紧与中长期配额不稳定性持续支撑底部空间,下游需求尚未显著改 善,硫酸镍价格依旧承压,不锈钢端需求进入季节性高点后的调整期。预计节后内盘将跟随外盘小幅上 行,但持续上行动能有限,更多呈现震荡偏强格局。 需求方面,西南期货分析称,不锈钢进入传统消费旺季,排产有所增长但受制于地产消费仍旧疲软,叠 加镍铁成交依旧冷清,钢厂压价心理较强,现实消费仍旧难言乐观,上方压力较大。 ...
铜价维持强势运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 09:23
有色金属 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3035632 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 30 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜价维持强势运行 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜沪铜增仓上行,主力期价突破今年 3 月高点,日内震荡调 整。自 9 月 24 日自由港发布铜矿减产公告后,铜价增仓上行明显, 资金关注度快速上升,上行动能强。国内即将进入国庆中秋小长 假,注意海外波动风险。 沪铝 今日沪铝震荡下行,持仓量持续下降。上周受铜价大涨影响,铝 价企稳回升,但整体反弹乏力。国内小长假前,电解铝有去库迹象, 给予铝价支撑。宏观宽松,产业旺季供需平衡边际好转。节前资金流 出较为明显,关注节后产业需求状况。 沪镍 今日沪镍震荡下行, ...
瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250930
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 09:08
| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-09-30 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 120900 | -200 10-11月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -590 | -310 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15325 | 170 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 76140 | -7009 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -26033 | 2907 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 231312 | 1188 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 29008 | -826 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 6780 | -198 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 24817 | -240 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 122450 | 450 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 122550 | 650 ...
上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一,沪锡涨2.62%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-29 22:16
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经AI快讯,9月30日,上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一,沪锡涨2.62%,沪铜涨1.96%,沪锌涨 1.22%,沪镍涨0.78%,沪铝涨0.31%,不锈钢涨0.20%,沪铅跌0.09%,氧化铝跌0.52%。 ...
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250929
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 11:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The eight - department plan aims to increase resource exploration and reserve for non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026, which will have a balanced impact on nickel prices. The overall consumption of non - ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with some sectors facing challenges and others having potential for improvement [43][45][55] - The copper market is affected by factors such as Grasberg's production decline, Congo - Kinshasa's smelter reduction, and domestic production issues, leading to a tight supply situation. The consumption is weak, but the bullish trend is strengthening [2][3][4] - The alumina market has an oversupply situation. Although the price rebounds slightly before the holiday, it is expected to remain weak due to the open import window and fundamental oversupply [8][12][13] - The aluminum market shows short - term shock due to factors like US economic data, domestic inventory changes, and consumption uncertainty, with potential for seasonal inventory build - up after the holiday [14][17][18] - The casting aluminum alloy market is restricted by factors such as tight waste aluminum resources and extended holidays of downstream enterprises, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [21][23][25] - The zinc market has potential production reduction in mines in October, with an expected increase in domestic refined zinc supply. The consumption is expected to remain weak, and the overseas de - stocking may support the price [30][31][33] - The lead market has a tight balance in the lead concentrate supply, with expected production increase in regenerated lead. The consumption in the peak season is under - performing, and the price may decline [37][40] - The nickel market has a surplus of refined nickel, but the price is affected by factors such as the plan and downstream consumption. Attention should be paid to import and inventory changes [43][45] - The stainless steel market has increased production in September, but the demand has not shown seasonal characteristics. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock [47][48] - The tin market has a tight supply in the mining end, weak demand, and a high - level shock is expected [54][56][57] - The industrial silicon market may have a short - term correction, and long positions can be considered after the correction [63][64][65] - The polysilicon market may have a short - term decline, and long positions can be re - entered after sufficient correction during the holiday [66][67] - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand and gradually narrowing supply growth. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,370 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The spot premium was stable, and the inventory increased by 0.82 million tons to 14.83 million tons [2] - **Important Information**: Policies encourage resource exploration and utilization, and Argentina approves a copper project. The supply is expected to increase during the holiday, while the demand will weaken [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Grasberg's production decline and other factors lead to tight supply, and the consumption is weak [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a low - long strategy for long - positions, hold cross - market positive spreads, and stay on the sidelines for options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell to 2,904 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased in various regions [7] - **Related Information**: Policies guide project layout, production capacity utilization rate changes, and raw material prices decline [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The policy has limited impact on production capacity expectations, and the price is restricted by import and oversupply [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract fell to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [14] - **Related Information**: US economic data is released, inventory decreases, and the photovoltaic installation shows a downward trend [14] - **Trading Logic**: The short - term price is in shock due to economic data and inventory changes, with potential for seasonal inventory build - up [17] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be shock - weak, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [18][19] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,230 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [21] - **Related Information**: Policies affect the recycled aluminum industry, warehouse receipts increase, and downstream enterprises' holiday arrangements change [21][22] - **Trading Logic**: The price is restricted by tight raw materials and extended holidays of downstream enterprises [23][25] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [26][27] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 fell to 21,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased [29] - **Related Information**: Inventory decreases, and a mining company obtains a new mining license [30] - **Logic Analysis**: The mine production may decrease in October, and the refined zinc supply may increase [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price may rebound, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [34] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2511 fell to 16,855 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [36] - **Related Information**: Inventory decreases, and the production and consumption of lead - related industries change [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate is in tight balance, and the consumption in the peak season is under - performing [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline [40] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 fell to 121,100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed [42] - **Related Information**: Policies and a mining right auction affect the market [43] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is affected by policies and consumption trends, with a surplus of refined nickel [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [44] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell to 12,760 yuan/ton, and the spot price range is given [47] - **Important Information**: India approves steel certifications [48] - **Logic Analysis**: The production increases, but the demand has not shown seasonality, and it is expected to shock at a high level [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to have a wide - range shock, and arbitrage should be on the sidelines [49][50] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2511 contract closed at 272,410 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [52] - **Related Information**: US policies and economic data, and industry development plans are announced [54][55] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [56] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and options should be on the sidelines [57][58] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures closed at 8,610 yuan/ton, and the spot price of some grades decreased [61][62] - **Related Information**: The export volume increases [63] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The inventory structure may cause feedback, and the price may correct in the short - term [64] - **Strategy**: The price may correct in the short - term, and long positions can be entered after the correction. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit, and no arbitrage opportunity [65] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures closed at 51,280 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [66] - **Related Information**: A research shows the feasibility of EU's solar component production [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The spot price is stable, but there is pressure on the contract due to warehouse receipt cancellation, and the demand is expected to weaken [67] - **Strategy**: The price may decline in the short - term, exit long positions first, and re - enter after sufficient correction. Do reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts, and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose to 73,920 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Projects in Argentina and China are progressing, and policies are announced [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is strong, and the supply growth is narrowing, and it is expected to maintain a shock pattern [73] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to have a wide - range shock, arbitrage should be on the sidelines, and sell out - of - the - money put options [74] Second Part: Non - Ferrous Industry Prices and Related Data - Multiple tables and figures present daily data and price trends of various non - ferrous metals, including spot prices, premiums, spreads, inventory, and production profits, comparing data from different dates and showing changes compared to the previous weekend and the end of the previous month [77][88][104]