Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The current fundamentals of nickel are weak, but the contradiction in the ore end and cost support limit the downward elasticity of Shanghai nickel. Stainless steel prices are under pressure from marginal inventory accumulation, but the raw material end contradiction restricts the downward space, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5][6]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon shows a weakly oscillating pattern with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream demand. Polysilicon has weak fundamentals and is affected by concentrated cancellation. The market is expected to pay attention to the impact of concentrated cancellation [29][30][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side news causes frequent disturbances. Although the market focuses on the approval progress of Zimbabwe, the increase in raw material shipments from Australia and Chile in April will supplement the raw materials. The downstream replenishment willingness is not strong in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [62][65]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: International oil prices dominate the palm oil market. The post - Eid al - Fitr origin structure has weakened, and the April production recovery degree will be a key factor for the annual market. The soybean oil market is affected by the US bio - fuel blending policy, and the price center is expected to return to the middle [84][85][88]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Soybean meal is oscillating and waiting for new drivers. Soybean has no driving force for the time being and the disk is oscillating. The market should pay attention to the April USDA supply and demand report, Sino - US trade progress, and South American weather [99][105]. - **Corn**: The corn market should focus on the inventory at the northern ports. The spot price has declined, and the futures price is affected by policy auction rumors and other factors. The price is expected to have a callback trend, but it is still a thinking of buying on dips [127][128][131]. - **Sugar**: Keep an eye on crude oil and maintain an oscillating and bullish thinking in the long term. The international sugar market is dominated by macro - drivers, and the domestic market is affected by import rhythm and cost [148][150][173]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong trend, and domestic cotton futures will maintain an oscillating trend. The market should focus on the new - year planting and relevant policies [175][176][190]. - **Hogs**: The de - stocking of hogs is less than expected, and the bottom has not appeared. The spot price is expected to continue to decline in April, and the LH2605 contract of futures should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [193][194]. - **Peanuts**: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. The peanut price has declined, and the futures are recommended to go long on dips. The market should pay attention to the digestion progress of the remaining goods in Henan in April and the impact of temperature on peanut indicators [205][206]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Situation**: Shanghai nickel is supported by marginal cost but limited by weak fundamentals. Stainless steel is under pressure from inventory accumulation and supported by raw material contradictions [5][6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 1,815 tons to 87,892 tons on April 3, and the LME inventory decreased by 78 tons to 281,496 tons. The inventory of the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain decreased [7][8]. - **Market News**: There are many news about nickel mines in Indonesia, including the adjustment of the benchmark price, the restart of mines in other regions, and the change of production quotas [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices both declined. Industrial silicon is affected by downstream production cuts, and polysilicon is affected by weak demand and concentrated cancellation [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: Industrial silicon supply has partial复产, and demand has weakened. Polysilicon supply has decreased in the short term, and demand is also weak [30][31][33]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly, and polysilicon should pay attention to the impact of concentrated cancellation [34]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The futures price of lithium carbonate declined, and the spot price increased slightly. The basis weakened [61]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased, and demand has downstream replenishment. The inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks [62][63][64]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the supply - side news [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's View**: Palm oil was affected by geopolitical situation and B50 news, and soybean oil was affected by crude oil and other factors [84]. - **This Week's View**: Palm oil is still dominated by energy prices, and the April production recovery is crucial. Soybean oil is affected by the US bio - fuel policy and South American weather [85][88]. - **Data**: The trading volume and price of palm oil and soybean oil futures have changed, and the inventory and export data of palm oil are also different [91]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Market**: The US soybean price oscillated, and the domestic soybean meal price was weak, while the soybean price was sideways [99][100]. - **Fundamentals**: The net sales of US soybeans decreased, the Brazilian soybean import cost decreased, and the US soybean planting area was slightly higher than expected [100]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and soybean are expected to oscillate, and pay attention to relevant reports and news [105]. Corn - **Market Review**: The corn spot price declined, and the futures price was affected by policy and inventory [127][128]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn declined, wheat price decreased, and corn starch inventory increased. Pay attention to the inventory at the northern ports [128][129][131]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: The international sugar price declined, and the domestic sugar price increased slightly. The net long position of funds increased [148][149]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The international sugar market is dominated by macro - drivers, and the domestic market should pay attention to import policies [150][173]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton reached a new high this year, and domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market should focus on new - year planting [175][176]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton planting area is expected to increase, and the export data is good. The domestic cotton price is slightly lower, and the downstream demand is weak [179][180][184]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: The hog spot price was weak, and the futures price declined. The supply increased, and the demand was mainly for inventory [193]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The hog price is expected to continue to decline, and the LH2605 contract should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [193][194]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: The peanut spot price declined, and the futures price also decreased. The supply has certain pressure, and the demand is different for different types of peanuts [205]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips. Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills and the impact of temperature [206].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects short - term Shanghai nickel to fluctuate and adjust, with attention focused on the 135,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton range [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 134,780 yuan/ton, down 2,340 yuan; the 05 - 06 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 300 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,325 US dollars/ton, up 110 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 164,700 lots, down 11,544 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 52,417 lots, down 2,462 lots; LME nickel inventory is 281,526 tons, down 48 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 64,479 tons, up 818 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel total 17,610 tons, down 48 tons [3] - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 57,858 tons, up 685 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 136,950 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 137,050 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 2,170 yuan/ton, up 1,590 yuan [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 201.58 US dollars/ton, down 10.38 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 1223,900 tons, down 160,300 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 7,418,400 tons, down 508,200 tons [3] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 96.59 US dollars/ton, down 28.97 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged [3] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,308.15 tons, down 5,231.79 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 831,700 tons, down 78,200 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1,319,400 tons, down 538,700 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 626,500 tons, up 2,300 tons [3] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will launch optimized measures for tax - free shopping for outbound tourists and measures to promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, and promote the development of the automotive aftermarket and leisure consumption such as cruise yachts and RV camping [3] - Due to the low base in January 2025, the import of automobiles from January to February 2026 was 70,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. In February 2026, the import of automobiles was 32,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month decrease of 17% [3] - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special consumption - boosting action to promote continuous consumption growth [3] - Fed Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance, but the Middle East conflict has suppressed risk sentiment. In the fundamentals, the cost of nickel ore in the Philippines has increased, the approval progress of Indonesian nickel ore production is slow, and Indonesia will postpone the plan to levy windfall taxes on coal and nickel exports [3] Viewpoint Summary - On the smelting side, nickel - iron plants have cut production due to ore shortages, and the cost support will continue to be transmitted; the production profit of electrolytic nickel continues to shrink, and the production in China and India is also restricted [3] - On the demand side, steel mills' resumption of production has accelerated after the festival, but they still face production - cut pressure due to profit compression; the output of new - energy ternary precursors remains high but the growth rate has slowed, and the share - squeezing effect of lithium iron phosphate continues [3] - Domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, and the spot premium remains stable; overseas LME inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot premium has been adjusted downwards [3] - Technically, the price has corrected while the position has increased, indicating greater divergence between bulls and bears [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market continues to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. Supply is sufficient with increased production scheduling in March and rising domestic inventories. The nickel ore price is firm, and the Indonesian RKAB policy is still having an impact. Nickel - iron prices are weakly stable, and the cost line is firm. Stainless - steel inventories have slightly increased, and demand is weak. New - energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the disk is neutral, and the main position is bullish. Conclusion: The Shanghai nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is firm, Indonesian demand is strong, nickel - iron prices are weakly stable, and the cost line has strong support. Stainless - steel inventories have slightly increased, and demand is weak. The basis is bullish, inventory is neutral, and the disk is bullish. Conclusion: The stainless - steel 2605 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 镍、不锈钢价格基本概览 - **期货价格**: On March 30, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 137,120 yuan, up 20 yuan from March 27; the London nickel price was 17,325, up 110; the stainless - steel main contract was 14,370 yuan, down 20 yuan. The nickel index was 135,900 yuan, up 650 yuan, and the cold - rolled index was 13,834 yuan, up 6 yuan [9]. - **Spot price**: On March 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 137,700 yuan, down 1,300 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 140,250 yuan, down 1,300 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 135,150 yuan, down 1,300 yuan; nickel beans were 137,950 yuan, down 1,150 yuan. Cold - rolled 304*2B prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [9]. 镍仓单、库存 - **上期所镍库存**: As of March 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 64,479 tons, with the futures inventory at 57,069 tons, an increase of 818 tons and 379 tons respectively. On March 30, the LME nickel inventory was 281,574 tons (unchanged), the nickel (warehouse receipt) was 57,173 tons, an increase of 104 tons, and the total inventory was 338,747 tons, an increase of 104 tons [11][12]. 不锈钢仓单、库存 - **Physical inventory**: On March 27, the Wuxi inventory was 601,200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 390,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,157,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,100 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons. - **Futures inventory**: On March 30, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt was 45,676 tons, unchanged from March 27 [16][17]. 镍矿、镍铁价格 - **Nickel ore**: On March 30, the CIF price of laterite nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 79 US dollars per wet ton, down 0.5 US dollars; Ni0.9% was 35 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged [21]. - **Nickel - iron**: The price of high - nickel wet tons (8 - 12) was 1,085.28 yuan per nickel point, down 0.45 yuan; the price of low - nickel wet tons (below 2) was 3,650 yuan per ton, unchanged [21]. 不锈钢生产成本 - The traditional cost was 14,196 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,081 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 17,888 yuan [23]. 镍进口成本测算 The converted import price was 135,923 yuan per ton [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, mainly influenced by Indonesian policies and some positive news on the cost side. The supply is sufficient with increased production scheduling in March and rising domestic inventories. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices are firm, the Indonesian RKAB policy continues to have an impact, and Indonesia's bargaining power for nickel ore is rising. Ferronickel prices are weakly stable with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories have slightly increased, and demand is weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles meet expectations, with a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season [6]. - The global nickel market is expected to maintain a supply surplus pattern dominated by low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. The industry will accelerate the elimination of high - cost production capacity in the context of持续 low prices, and the bottom of nickel prices will be anchored to the cost line of Indonesian nickel pig iron [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, influenced by Indonesian policies and cost - side factors. Supply is sufficient, with increased production scheduling and rising inventories. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices are firm, ferronickel prices are weakly stable, stainless steel inventories have increased, and new energy vehicle production and sales are in the off - season [6]. - **Operation Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% decreased from $78 to $77, a decline of 1.28%; the price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% decreased from $73 to $72, a decline of 1.37%. Battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices remained unchanged. Low - nickel ferronickel (Shandong) and high - nickel ferronickel (Shandong) prices remained unchanged [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from 140,690 yuan to 141,870 yuan, an increase of 0.84%; Shanghai Russian nickel increased from 134,040 yuan to 136,320 yuan, an increase of 1.70%; Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased from 140,600 yuan to 141,400 yuan, an increase of 0.57% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged at 15,062.5 yuan [12]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: Nickel ore prices decreased by $1 per wet ton this week, and ocean freight decreased by $2 per wet ton compared to last week [15][16]. - **Inventory**: On March 26, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 7.4184 million wet tons, a decrease of 508,200 wet tons or 6.41% from the previous period. Philippine nickel ore inventory was 7.1684 million wet tons, a decrease of 458,200 wet tons or 6%; other countries' nickel ore inventory was 250,000 wet tons, a decrease of 50,000 wet tons or 16.67% [16]. - **Import**: In February 2026, nickel ore imports were 1.2239 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 160,300 tons or 11.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 77,800 tons or 6.79%. From January to February 2026, the total nickel ore imports were 2.6081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.73% [16]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price and Spot**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated and strengthened, mainly affected by Indonesian policies and cost factors. Domestic inventories are high, supply is sufficient, downstream demand is for essential purchases, and the premium has decreased [23]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel production was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel production was 67,825 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.65%. In March 2026, the estimated refined nickel production was 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [30]. - **Import and Export**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel imports were 16,930.903 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,135 tons or 23.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 9,333 tons or 122.85%. The net import of refined nickel was 14,664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel imports were 38,997.234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,821 tons or 17.54%. In February 2026, China's refined nickel exports were 2,266.831 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,547 tons or 40.56%, and a year - on - year decrease of 17,934 tons or 88.78% [34]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 818 tons to 64,479 tons. Social inventory data shows that Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 379 tons, spot inventory increased by 1,511 tons to 26,238 tons, bonded area inventory decreased by 200 tons to 2,770 tons, and the total inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons [39]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - **Price**: According to Mysteel data, low - nickel ferronickel prices remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton, and high - nickel ferronickel prices remained unchanged at 1,100 yuan/nickel point. According to SMM data, high - nickel ferronickel prices decreased by 0.5 yuan/nickel to 1,083.5 yuan/nickel, and low - nickel ferronickel prices decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 3,650 yuan/ton [44][45]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual production was 21,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. Medium - and high - nickel pig iron production was 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; low - nickel pig iron production was 4,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67%. From January to February 2026, China's total nickel pig iron production was 42,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.48%, of which the nickel metal production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 31,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.73% [47]. - **Import**: In February 2026, China's ferronickel imports were 831,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78,200 tons or 8.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 77,300 tons or 8.51%. From January to February 2026, China's total ferronickel imports were 1.7415 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96,500 tons or 5.25% [50]. - **Inventory**: In February, the tradable ferronickel inventory was 178,300 physical tons, equivalent to 17,000 tons of nickel. The tradable medium - and high - nickel ferronickel was 152,300 tons, equivalent to 16,900 tons of nickel [53]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four locations) remained unchanged from last week [58][59]. - **Production**: In February, stainless steel crude steel production was 2.71 million tons, including 818,300 tons of 200 - series, 572,300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [63]. - **Import and Export**: The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 109,000 tons and exports were 260,000 tons [66]. - **Inventory**: On March 27, the inventory in Wuxi was 601,200 tons, in Foshan was 390,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1575 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,100 tons. The inventory of 300 - series was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons [69]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Vehicle Production and Sales**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2%. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 41.2% of total vehicle sales [74]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and energy - storage batteries was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic power battery loading volume was 68.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2% [77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price rebounded, fluctuated, and strengthened, returning to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The main contract positions increased to some extent, and the bullish force was relatively strong. The MACD indicator showed a golden cross and started to point upwards, and the KDJ slowly entered the overbought area. The previous bottom was supported again, and after the rebound, the pressure of the 20 - day moving average was evident. It may continue to fluctuate in the future [80]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB policy continues to have an impact, there is strong demand support in Indonesia, and mine quotes are firm [83]. - **Ferronickel**: Neutral. Ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and cost support is strong [83]. - **Refined Nickel**: Neutral to bearish. Supply is sufficient, and inventories are at a high level [83]. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. Inventories have increased, and consumption is weak [83]. - **New Energy**: Neutral. It is the off - season for consumption, and production has decreased significantly month - on - month [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints 2.1沪镍 - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated with an upward bias, mainly influenced by Indonesian policies and some positive news on the cost side. Supply: In March, production scheduling increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices were firm, the Indonesian RKAB policy continued to ferment, and Indonesia's bargaining power for nickel ore continued to rise. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories increased slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. Overall, it is bearish [3]. - The basis of spot nickel is 1900, which is bullish [3]. - LME nickel inventory is 281574 (-666), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 57069 (-524), which is bearish [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is neutral [3]. - The net long position of the main contract increased, which is bullish [3]. - Conclusion: The Shanghai nickel 2605 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 2.2 Stainless Steel - The spot stainless steel price remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventories increased slightly, and demand was weak. Overall, it is neutral [5]. - The basis of stainless steel is 672.5, which is bullish [5]. - The futures warehouse receipt is 45676 (unchanged), which is neutral [5]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. - Conclusion: The stainless steel 2605 contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Nickel, Stainless Steel Price Overview | Type | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai nickel main contract | 137100 | 135860 | +1240 | | LME nickel | 17215 | 17165 | +50 | | Stainless steel main contract | 14390 | 14390 | 0 | | SMM1 electrolytic nickel (spot) | 139000 | 139350 | -350 | | 1 Jinchuan nickel (spot) | 141550 | 142050 | -500 | | 1 imported nickel (spot) | 136450 | 136450 | 0 | | Nickel beans (spot) | 139100 | 139100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi, spot) | 15100 | 15100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Foshan, spot) | 14900 | 14900 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Hangzhou, spot) | 15100 | 15100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Shanghai, spot) | 15150 | 15150 | 0 | [10] 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 64479 tons, of which the futures inventory was 57069 tons, an increase of 818 tons and 379 tons respectively [12]. | Type | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME nickel inventory | 281574 | 282240 | -666 | | Nickel warehouse receipts | 57069 | 57593 | -524 | | Total inventory | 338643 | 339833 | -1190 | [13] 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 27, the Wuxi inventory was 601200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 390900 tons, and the national inventory was 1157500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30100 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 696700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3000 tons [17]. - The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt on March 27 was 45676 tons, unchanged from the previous day [18]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices | Nickel Ore | Grade | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Laterite nickel ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 79.5 | 79.5 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Laterite nickel ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 35 | 35 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Freight from Philippines to Lianyungang | | 14.5 | 14.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | Freight from Philippines to Tianjin Port | | 16 | 16 | 0 | USD/ton | | High - nickel wet ton | 8 - 12 | 1085.73 | 1085.52 | +0.21 | CNY/nickel point | | Low - nickel wet ton | <2 | 3650 | 3650 | 0 | CNY/ton | [22] 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs | Traditional Cost | Scrap Steel Production Cost | Low - Nickel + Pure Nickel Cost | | --- | --- | --- | | 14205 | 14085 | 17964 | [24] 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price is 134894 CNY/ton [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience short - term shock adjustments, and investors should focus on the competition around the MA60 line [4] - On the macro - front, the situation between the US and Iran is complex. Iran has rejected the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House claims the negotiation is ongoing and productive. The information exchange is not considered a negotiation by Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz is open to non - belligerent countries [3] - On the fundamental side, the nickel ore imports have declined as the Philippines enters the rainy season. The approval progress of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB production is faster than expected, alleviating supply concerns. The domestic refined nickel production is expected to rise again, and the demand from stainless steel plants and new - energy vehicles is increasing [3] - Technically, the position volume has decreased, the price has corrected, and the bullish sentiment is cautious [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 135,860 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [3] - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 17,345 US dollars/ton, up 365 US dollars; the main contract position volume of Shanghai nickel is 179,895 hands, down 8,924 hands [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai nickel is - 49,024 hands, up 4,278 hands; the LME nickel inventory is 282,456 tons, down 432 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 63,661 tons (weekly), down 20 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 18,492 tons, down 408 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 57,593 tons, down 12 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 139,350 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 139,250 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 3,490 yuan/ton, up 1,820 yuan [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 195.11 US dollars/ton, up 0.78 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 122.39 million tons, down 16.03 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 792.66 million tons (weekly), down 65.68 million tons [3] - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 96.59 US dollars/ton, down 28.97 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 2.14 million metal tons, unchanged [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,308.15 tons, down 5,231.79 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 83.17 million tons, down 7.82 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 131.94 million tons, down 53.87 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.42 million tons, down 1.28 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The negotiation between the US and Iran is unclear. Iran has rejected the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House claims the negotiation is ongoing and productive. Iran is prepared for further escalation of the situation [3] - Non - belligerent ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination. COSCO Shipping Lines has resumed new booking business (ordinary containers) to some Middle - East countries but will not pass through the Strait of Hormuz for now [3] - As of the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity in China is 3.95 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The installed capacity of solar power generation is 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 33.2%; the installed capacity of wind power is 0.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.8% [3] - A Fed governor believes that the current Fed policy is dragging down the economy and should gradually cut interest rates to the neutral level this year. The overall inflation forecast for this year is raised to 2.7% due to the oil price shock [3] - The ECB President says that the ECB will take decisive action if inflation is triggered by the soaring energy cost, and is currently assessing the impact of the Middle - East situation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets continue to show a volatile trend under macro - level pressure. The nickel market is in a state of policy - fundamental game, with long - term support from Indonesian policy on the cost side and suppression from the macro and supply - demand pattern. The stainless - steel market has a strong supply growth expectation compared to the demand side, but cost support remains, and it will follow the nickel price trend and maintain volatility in the short term [1][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 24, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 134,000 yuan/ton and closed at 133,480 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.42% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 442,345 (- 21,537) lots, and the open interest was 181,146 (+ 1,440) lots. The nickel market is in a state of policy - fundamental game. Policy - wise, the nickel ore mining quota has decreased from 3.79 billion tons to 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, leading to a tight supply at the ore end. Fundamentally, the supply output continues to rise, inventories at home and abroad are increasing, and the market supply is sufficient. The demand side has stable support from stainless - steel mills and new - energy vehicles, but it is in the off - season with limited improvement [1] Nickel Ore - The cost - side of raw materials has a stronger expectation of price increase, and the bargaining center of the nickel ore market continues to move up. In the Philippines, the tense Middle - East geopolitical situation has led to a significant increase in nickel ore shipping costs and mining costs, and the price of Philippine nickel ore is under short - term pressure. In Indonesia, the approval progress of RKAB ore quotas is slow, and the premium of domestic trade nickel ore remains strong, with some premiums rising to $45 - 50 per wet ton [2] Spot - The domestic refined nickel spot market continues to show a weak and volatile trend, with a slight downward movement in the price center. The supply side has increased the enthusiasm of traders to sell goods, and some holders have lowered the premium to recover funds. The demand side has a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, with only rigid - demand users replenishing inventory at low prices. The trading is light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel has changed by - 300 yuan/ton to 6,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel has changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 58,006 (+ 374) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 282,888 (+ 96) tons [3] Strategy - The Shanghai nickel has shown strong resilience recently, maintaining a wide - range volatile pattern in a macro - bearish environment. It is expected to remain in an interval - volatile state in the short term. The recommended strategy is mainly interval operation [4] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 24, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,070 yuan/ton and closed at 14,290 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 262,223 (+ 87,100) lots, and the open interest was 124,889 (- 4,171) lots. The supply side is expected to have a total production of 3.5364 million tons of stainless - steel crude steel in March, with a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The demand side has a slower - than - expected recovery in the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, with only rigid - demand replenishment. In April, consumption is expected to continue to pick up, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for prices. The spot market has seen some recovery in confidence, with an increase in inquiries and transactions [5] Strategy - The supply growth expectation on the fundamental side is stronger than the demand side, but cost support remains. The stainless - steel price will follow the nickel price trend in the short term and is expected to maintain volatility. The recommended strategy is neutral [6]

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel on March 25, 2026, provided by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai Nickel 2605, it is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [2] - For stainless steel 2605, it is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Summary by Directory 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On March 24, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 133,480 yuan, up 500 yuan from the previous day; the LME Nickel was 16,980, down 220; the stainless steel main contract was 14,290, up 255 yuan. The nickel index was 133,850, down 900; the cold - rolled coil index was 13,799, down 75 [10] - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 136,150 yuan on March 24, down 1700 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 139,300 yuan, down 1850 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 132,900 yuan, down 1550 yuan; nickel beans were 135,500 yuan, down 1550 yuan. Cold - rolled coil 304*2B prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [10] 2. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **LME and SHFE Inventory**: As of March 24, LME nickel inventory was 282,888, an increase of 96; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 58,006, an increase of 374; the total inventory was 340,894, an increase of 470 [13] - **Previous Inventory Data**: As of March 20, SHFE nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with futures inventory at 56,690 tons, a decrease of 20 tons and an increase of 228 tons respectively [12] 3. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Futures Inventory**: On March 24, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 43,599, an increase of 1934 from the previous day [18] - **Regional Inventory**: On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 693,700 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons month - on - month [17] 4. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - **Nickel Ore Prices**: On March 24, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 US dollars per wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged [21] - **Ferronickel Prices**: The price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 1086.21 yuan per nickel point, down 0.28 yuan; the price of low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3650 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan [21] 5. Stainless Steel Production Cost - **Cost Types**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 14,115 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 14,071 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 17,707 yuan [23] 6. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price of nickel was 132,602 yuan per ton [26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and investors should pay attention to the MA60 resistance. The macro - situation shows that Trump's dialogue with Iran has formed key points of an agreement, delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. Fundamentally, the import of nickel ore from the Philippines is decreasing due to the rainy season, while Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB production approval is faster than expected, easing supply concerns. The domestic refined nickel production is expected to rise again, and the demand from stainless steel plants and new - energy vehicles is improving. Technically, the increasing position and rising price indicate a strong bullish sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 133,480 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The spread between the 05 - 06 contracts is - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,200 US dollars/ton, up 315 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 181,146 lots, an increase of 1,440 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 54,932 lots, a decrease of 2,740 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 282,792 tons, a decrease of 720 tons. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 63,661 tons, a decrease of 20 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 17,640 tons, a decrease of 720 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 58,006 tons, an increase of 374 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 136,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 136,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,900 yuan/ton. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 2,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,200 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 188.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.2 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 million tons, a decrease of 134.67 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 792.66 million tons, a decrease of 65.68 million tons. - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 99.61 million tons, an increase of 10.07 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 185.81 million tons, an increase of 11.09 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.42 million tons, a decrease of 1.28 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock. Trump said the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed key points of an agreement, delaying the attack on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 17%. It aims to complete 23 billion yuan of investment in the first quarter, a year - on - year increase of 35%. - US Vice - President Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the efforts to start negotiations with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran. Netanyahu said he had a call with Trump, and Trump thought there was an opportunity to achieve all war goals through an agreement. Meanwhile, Israel continues to attack Iran and Lebanon. - Fed's Goolsbee said inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates, while still retaining the space for rate cuts this year. Other Fed officials also expressed their views on inflation and interest - rate policies [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly, mainly affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar putting pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector. In terms of supply, the production schedule for March increased, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate, indicating sufficient market supply. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices continued to rise, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. There was a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, but there was a significant month - on - month decline during the off - season [6]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly, while the main contract of stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: Nickel prices were affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar and overall pressure on non - ferrous metals. Supply was sufficient, and there were different situations in each part of the industrial chain [6]. - **Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 77 to 78, a 1.30% increase; the price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 72 to 73, a 1.39% increase [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 32000 to 31250, a 2.34% decrease; the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged at 32500 [11]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 3500, and the price of high - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 144970 to 140690, a 2.95% decrease; the price of Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 138020 to 134040, a 2.88% decrease; the ex - factory price of Jinchuan decreased from 144000 to 140600, a 2.36% decrease [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 15087.5 to 15062.5, a 0.17% decrease [12] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: Nickel ore prices rose by 1 US dollar per wet ton this week, and sea freight remained the same as last week [15][16]. - **Inventory**: On March 19, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 7.9266 million wet tons, a decrease of 656800 wet tons or 7.65% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Philippine nickel ore was 7.6266 million wet tons, a decrease of 606800 wet tons or 7.37%; the inventory of nickel ore from other countries was 300000 wet tons, a decrease of 50000 wet tons or 14.29% [16]. - **Imports**: In February 2026, the nickel ore import volume was 1.2239 million tons, a decrease of 160300 tons or 11.58% month - on - month and an increase of 77800 tons or 6.79% year - on - year. From January to February 2026, the total nickel ore import volume was 2.6081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.73% [16] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price**: Nickel prices fluctuated weakly, affected by the war and a stronger US dollar. Domestic nickel supply was sufficient, and inventories continued to rise [20][22]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel production was 32600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel production was 67825 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.65%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 39430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [29]. - **Imports and Exports**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel import volume was 16930.903 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5135 tons or 23.27% and a year - on - year increase of 9333 tons or 122.85%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel import volume was 38997.234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5821 tons or 17.54%. In February 2026, China's refined nickel export volume was 2266.831 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1547 tons or 40.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 17934 tons or 88.78%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel export volume was 177407.479 tons, a year - on - year increase of 143135 tons or 417.64% [33]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: In February 2026, China's sulfuric acid nickel physical production was 199500 tons, and the metal production was 43900 tons (new sample), a month - on - month decrease of 16.2%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 53100 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.06%. The battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 31250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 750 yuan per ton, and the electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 32500 yuan per ton, the same as last week [36]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1146 tons to 283512 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 20 tons to 63661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56690 tons. The social inventory data showed that the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 228 tons compared with last week, the spot inventory was 24727 tons, an increase of 413 tons, the bonded area inventory was 2970 tons, unchanged, and the total inventory was 84387 tons, an increase of 641 tons compared with last week [38] 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - **Price**: According to MySteel data, the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3500 yuan per ton, and the price of high - nickel iron remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point. According to SMM data, the price of high - nickel iron decreased by 10.5 yuan per nickel compared with before the holiday, to 1084 yuan per nickel, and the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3675 yuan per ton [43][44]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual production in terms of metal was 21100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 16400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; the production of low - nickel pig iron was 4700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67%. From January to February 2024, China's total nickel pig iron production was 42500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.48%, among which the nickel metal production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 31300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.73% [46]. - **Imports**: In February 2026, China's nickel iron import volume was 831700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78200 tons or 8.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 77300 tons or 8.51%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia in February was 796000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89100 tons or 10.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 98700 tons or 11%. From January to February 2026, China's total nickel iron import volume was 1.7415 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96500 tons or 5.25%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia was 1.6811 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 112500 tons or 6.27% [49]. - **Inventory**: In February, the negotiable inventory of nickel iron was 178300 physical tons, equivalent to 17000 nickel tons. The negotiable inventory of medium - and high - nickel iron was 152300 tons, equivalent to 16900 nickel tons [52] 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The average price of 304 stainless steel in four places decreased by 25 yuan per ton compared with last week. The prices in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained the same, while the price in Foshan decreased by 100 yuan per ton [57][58][59]. - **Production**: In February, the stainless steel crude steel production was 2.71 million tons, including 818300 tons of 200 - series, 572300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [61]. - **Imports and Exports**: The latest data showed that the stainless steel import volume was 109000 tons, and the export volume was 260000 tons [64]. - **Inventory**: On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 380600 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1274 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15000 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 693700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13400 tons [67] 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Production and Sales Volume**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694000 and 765000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. The new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 42.4% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively, and the new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.2% of the total new vehicle sales [71]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and energy - storage batteries was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 5.7 GWh, accounting for 21.7% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 39.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.6 GWh, accounting for 78.3% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 36.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.5%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic power battery loading volume was 68.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. Among them, the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 15.1 GWh, accounting for 22.1% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 53.3 GWh, accounting for 77.9% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [74] 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price started to weaken, the 20 - day moving average turned downward, the positions decreased significantly, and some long - positions withdrew. The MACD indicator showed a downward trend, and the KDJ entered the relatively bottom area, indicating a certain rebound demand. As long as the previous low is not broken, the oscillating trend remains intact, and an oscillating strategy is maintained [77] 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The impact of each link on nickel prices is as follows: nickel ore is neutral to bullish due to the continuous impact of RKAB and strong demand in Indonesia; nickel iron is neutral with weakly stable prices and strong cost support; refined nickel is neutral to bearish with sufficient supply and high inventories; stainless steel is neutral with slightly decreasing inventories but still at a high level and weak consumption; new energy is neutral with a significant month - on - month decrease in production during the off - season [80]. - **Trading Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [82][83]