有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 期货研究报告 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 降息预期升温，有色反弹 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜主力期价围绕 8.62 万一线窄幅震荡。宏观层面，纽约联 储主席威廉姆斯发表了被市场解读为"鸽派"的讲话，重燃了交易 员对于 12 月可能降息的希望。12 月降息概率再度回升至 70%左右。 铜价受此利好，周五夜盘反弹明显。产业上，海外电解铜库存持续 上升，压制铜价；周一国内电解铜社库呈现去化。技术上，关注 8.6 万关口支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝偏强震荡。宏观层面，美联储降息预 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Last night, the macro - atmosphere weakened, and the copper price dropped below the 86,000 yuan mark. Today, the decline slowed, with the open interest of Shanghai copper continuing to decline, and the main futures price stabilizing around 85,600 yuan. After the US non - farm payrolls data was released last night, the US stocks opened high and closed low with a significant decline, and the Asian market continued the downward trend today. In the industry, as the copper price fell, spot transactions improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 85,500 yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum significantly decreased with a reduction in positions, and the main futures price fell below the 21,500 yuan mark. Last night, the overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and the domestic market continued the downturn. In the industry, as the aluminum price weakened, downstream transactions improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated downward, with little change in open interest, and the main futures price fell below the 115,000 yuan mark. Last night, the overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and the domestic market continued the decline. As the nickel price dropped, the spot premium gradually strengthened, indicating stronger support in the spot market. Technically, the main futures price breaking below the 115,000 yuan mark has strong downward momentum [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 21st, the weekly SMM copper cable operating rate increased by 1.32 percentage points. As the copper price fell below 86,000 yuan/ton, orders rebounded, but some enterprises were still observing. The demand for automotive wiring harnesses was good. SMM expected a slight increase in the operating rate next week as enterprises would increase production for the end - of - November rush [9]. - **Aluminum**: On November 20th, the Mysteel electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday [10]. - **Nickel**: On November 21st, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 114,400 - 119,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 116,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,000 - 4,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium and discount quotation range was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Relevant charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Related charts are aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Relevant charts cover nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].

11月21日，国内期市有色金属板块跌幅居前。其中，沪镍期货主力合约开盘报115250.00元/吨，今日盘 中低位震荡运行；截至收盘，沪镍主力最高触及115580.00元，下方探低113980.00元，跌幅达1.75%。 目前来看，沪镍行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于沪镍后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 广州期货分析称，印尼方面，印尼能矿部表示计划下调2026年镍矿配额RKAB，将低于原计划3.19亿 吨，由于未明确下调量级，市场对此情绪反应有限，更关注于弱现实逻辑。硫酸镍方面，镍价回落带动 镍折扣系数下调，不过中间品现货流通量仍有限，硫酸镍价格或稳中偏弱。供需方面，下游低价刚需采 购需求量级有限，精炼镍社会库存继续积累，基本面维持弱势。综合而言，精炼镍基本面缺乏改善，社 会库存趋势性积累，镍价或震荡磨底，关注印尼政策利多扰动可能性，主力合约下方支撑位参考11.3- 11.4万元/吨。 混沌天成期货表示，印尼暂停镍冶炼项目建设许可对供应影响有限，全球镍供需过剩格局未改，库存高 位且需求稳定，宏观面美联储鹰派言论令有色承压，镍价预计短期维持低位区间震荡。 铜冠金源期货指出，美联储多位官员发表鹰 ...

Report Overview - The report is an early-morning report on Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel dated November 21, 2025, provided by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Shanghai Nickel**: The overall view is bearish in the medium to long term, with a short - term outlook of low - level, sideways, and weak operation. The 2601 contract is expected to move weakly in a low - level range [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The overall view is neutral, with a short - term outlook of low - level, sideways, and weak pressure. The 2601 contract is expected to be under pressure in a low - level range [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Nickel Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The external market is moving sideways at a low level. Nickel ore prices are firm, and the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply. Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and stainless steel inventories are rising, showing an oversupply. Although short - term production may decline, the medium - to - long - term supply is strong, and inventories are continuously increasing. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the overall boost is limited [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 117,600, and the basis is 1,770, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 255,846 (-1,986), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts are 34,631 (-793), which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Conclusion**: The Shanghai Nickel 2601 contract will move weakly in a low - level range [2]. Stainless Steel Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, shipping costs are stable, nickel iron prices are falling, the cost line continues to decline, and stainless steel inventories have increased significantly. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The average price of stainless steel is 13,287.5, and the basis is 952.5, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 68,310 (-485), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - **Conclusion**: The Stainless Steel 2601 contract will be under pressure in a low - level range [4]. Price Overview - **Nickel**: On November 20, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 115,380 (-450), the LME nickel was at 14,455 (-185). Spot prices of various nickel products increased by 600 compared to the previous day [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel was at 12,285 (-50) on November 20, and the spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in various regions remained unchanged [11]. Inventory Situation - **Nickel**: As of November 14, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,573 tons, with the futures inventory at 35,027 tons, an increase of 3,386 tons and 2,393 tons respectively. On November 20, LME inventory was 254,172 (-1,674), and Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 34,079 (-552) [13][14]. - **Stainless Steel**: On November 14, the inventory in Wuxi was 584,800 tons, in Foshan was 347,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,500 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 660,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,400 tons. On November 20, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 65,340 (-2,970) [18][19]. Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - **Nickel Ore**: On November 20, the price of Ni1.5% red clay nickel ore CIF was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of Ni0.9% red clay nickel ore CIF was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. Shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged [22]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) wet tons was 894.5 yuan per nickel point (-2.5), and the price of low - nickel (below 2) wet tons was 3,200 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,536, the scrap steel production cost is 12,870, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,158 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 115,908 yuan per ton [26].

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-11-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 115380 | -270 12-01月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -130 | 50 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14640 | -5 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 152848 | 67836 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -29606 | 2483 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 255846 | -1986 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 40573 | 3386 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 11394 | -2238 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 34079 | -552 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 118200 | 600 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 118300 | 700 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market environments [5]. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a decline in treasury bond futures. With the current macro - economic situation and market conditions, there is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, and caution is advised [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day showed mixed performance. Given the current domestic economic situation, market sentiment, and external factors, the risk of a significant decline is low, and investors can choose the right time to go long [7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day witnessed price increases. Considering the global trade and financial environment, central bank actions, and the current price level, it is advisable to wait and see for a long - position opportunity [10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Affected by macro - economic factors and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Alumina supply is relatively loose, and aluminum needs to beware of seasonal consumption pressure and profit - taking, with a possible phased correction [49]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day remained flat. With tight supply of zinc concentrates and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Due to supply and demand factors, lead prices are expected to operate within a range [54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. With tight supply and certain demand support, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [56]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day had an increase. Facing supply - demand contradictions, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [58]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Considering supply - demand relationships and technical aspects, prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With a weak supply - demand pattern and technical resistance, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day had a significant decline. Based on supply - demand changes and technical analysis, there may be a short - term correction, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during the correction [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day had a decline. With high - level production decline, weak demand recovery, and cost support, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels [18]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day had an upward trend. Considering supply - demand factors and market news, there are concerns about supply surplus, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities in the short - term [20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With mixed supply - demand factors, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [23][24]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With improved downstream demand in some areas, investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With supply and demand factors, there is still room for short - term price increases, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities [31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day had a decline. With an oversupply situation, attention should be paid to supply - side changes [33]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. It is expected that the market will decline slightly in the next period, but the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day had an increase. With improved short - term supply - demand structure, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and investors can participate in the range [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day had an increase. With low processing fees, low inventory, and cost factors, it is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and caution is needed [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day had a decline. With increased supply and inventory, it is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory and supply changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With high - level supply, stable demand, and enhanced cost - driving, it is expected to fluctuate with costs [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day had an increase. With raw material price support and stable supply and demand, it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day had a significant increase. With strong supply and demand, inventory is being depleted, and attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [45]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day had different performances. With sufficient soybean supply and improved demand for soybean oil, investors can focus on long - position opportunities for soybean oil and consider exiting long positions for soybean meal [59]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day had an increase. Affected by supply - demand factors, investors can consider long - position opportunities during corrections [61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day had a decline. With supply - demand and external factors, investors can consider a long - position strategy for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With increased global and US production and inventory, and domestic supply and demand factors, cotton prices are expected to be weak [66]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day had a decline. With global production expectations and domestic supply pressure, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [70]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day had a high - level volatile operation. With current inventory and market conditions, apple prices are expected to operate strongly [74]. - **Pigs**: The previous trading day had a price increase. With sufficient supply and uncertain demand, investors can consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day had a price decline. With high - level supply and weak demand, investors can consider closing short positions gradually [79]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day had an increase. With new - season corn supply pressure and inventory factors, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch may follow the corn market [81].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色反弹 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜偏强震荡，持仓量小幅上升，主力期价站上 8.6 万关 口。宏观层面，盘面有所回暖，贵金属反弹明显，有色也呈现反弹 态势。短期市场对美联储鹰派的情绪有所释放，市场或迎来情绪上 的修复。技术上，关注 8.6 万关口支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝减仓反弹。宏观层面，盘面有所回暖，贵金属反弹明 显，有色也呈现反弹态势。短期市场对美联储鹰派的情绪有所释放， 市场或迎来情绪上的修复。产业层面，随着铝价下跌，成 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Due to the high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Stainless steel is also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation due to weak demand, high inventory, and a downward - shifting cost center [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main nickel contract 2512 opened at 116,420 yuan/ton and closed at 114,840 yuan/ton, a - 1.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 117,416 (+14,501) lots, and the open interest was 99,682 (-7,659) lots. The main nickel contract continued its downward trend and may continue to oscillate to find the bottom in the short term. The Fed's internal division on a December interest rate cut and the rising dollar index (to 99.6) pressured commodity prices and led to the decline of nickel prices [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was fair, and prices remained stable. In the Philippines, there were tenders for 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen and 1.25% nickel ore from Benguet. Downstream nickel - iron prices were falling, and iron mills were mainly in a wait - and - see mode and had a price - pressing mentality. In Indonesia, the November (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price fell by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium was +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [2]. - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 119,000 yuan/ton, a 1,500 - yuan/ton drop from the previous trading day. As prices continued to fall, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises increased, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands mostly rose. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 4,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 35,826 (+799) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 257,694 (+5,604) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2601 opened at 12,415 yuan/ton and closed at 12,365 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 92,400 (-44,713) lots, and the open interest was 177,321 (-4,171) lots. The main stainless - steel contract showed a low - level oscillation, with prices oscillating between 12,300 - 12,500 yuan/ton, breaking below the 5 - day moving average, indicating an initial short - term downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and the continuous decline of nickel prices, there were still no signs of a rebound in stainless - steel prices [3]. - Spot prices continued to decline to historical lows, but the market was pessimistic, and trading did not improve significantly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,700 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 365 to 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 899.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - A neutral stance is recommended for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 18 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色持续走弱 核心观点 沪铜 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 今日沪铜持续减仓下行，主力期价跌破 8.6 万关口，多头了结意 愿较强。宏观层面，受美联储鹰派影响，市场氛围持续走弱，有色 普跌。技术上，关注月初低位支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝持续减仓下行，主力期价跌破 2.15 万关口。宏观层面， 受美联储鹰派影响，市场氛围持续走弱，有色普跌。产业层面，上周 以来随着铝价上涨，现货贴水持续走弱，而本周铝价高位回落，贴水 并未改善，这意味着产业支撑不强。技术上，持 ...

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