长周期考核制度

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长债利率持续上行,利好保险股
Soochow Securities· 2025-03-11 03:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown mixed performance, with the insurance sector outperforming the CSI 300 index recently, increasing by 1.69% compared to the index's 1.39% rise [6][11] - The report highlights a significant increase in trading volume in the securities sector, with March 2025 daily average trading volume reaching 1.9018 trillion yuan, a 71.15% year-on-year increase [10][11] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from rising long-term bond rates and economic recovery, with valuations currently at historical lows [19][33] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors - In the last five trading days (March 3-7, 2025), only the insurance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with an overall increase of 0.97% for the non-bank financial sector [6][7] - Year-to-date performance shows the multi-financial sector down 2.57%, insurance down 4.02%, and securities down 4.54% [7] 2. Insights on Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors 2.1 Securities - Trading volume has significantly increased, with a daily average of 1.9018 trillion yuan in March 2025, up 71.15% year-on-year [10] - The margin financing balance reached 1.9207 trillion yuan, a 28.30% year-on-year increase [10] - The average valuation for the securities sector is currently at 1.7x 2024E P/B, with recommendations for leading firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [15][16] 2.2 Insurance - The insurance sector is focusing on long-term investment reforms, with over 1,000 billion yuan in pilot programs and an additional 600 billion yuan recently added [18] - The sector's valuation is currently between 0.52-0.81x 2024E P/EV, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [19][33] 2.3 Multi-Financial - The trust industry is entering a stable transition period, with total assets reaching 27 trillion yuan, a 24.5% year-on-year increase [21] - The futures market saw a trading volume of 553 million contracts in January 2025, with a transaction value of 48.87 trillion yuan, reflecting a 10.9% year-on-year increase [27][30] 3. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the insurance sector highest, followed by securities and other multi-financial services, recommending companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Life, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities [33]