Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank believes that the logic behind the recent Bitcoin crash has fundamentally changed, driven by macroeconomic headwinds, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, stalled regulatory processes, institutional capital outflows, and profit-taking by long-term holders [1] Group 1: Five Major Impacts - **Impact One: High Correlation with Tech Stocks** Bitcoin's recent decline is synchronized with the drop in U.S. stocks, indicating that it has not yet established itself as a defensive hedge [2][3] - **Impact Two: Increased Uncertainty in Monetary Policy** The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key driver of Bitcoin's decline, with a strong negative correlation between Bitcoin prices and Fed interest rates [8][9] - **Impact Three: Stalled Regulatory Key Legislation** The momentum for regulatory frameworks has stalled since the summer, which directly hinders Bitcoin's investment integration and liquidity [10][12] - **Impact Four: Institutional Capital Outflows and Liquidity Drain** The recent sell-off has created a vicious cycle of liquidity drain and institutional capital outflows, exacerbating market pressure [14] - **Impact Five: Profit-Taking by Long-Term Holders** Unlike previous crashes driven by new or leveraged traders, this adjustment has seen long-term holders cashing out, leading to increased supply in circulation [16][17] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - **Market Dynamics** The correlation between Bitcoin and major stock indices has surged, reaching levels similar to those during the market stress of the COVID-19 pandemic [6][7] - **Future Outlook** The ability of Bitcoin to stabilize post-adjustment remains uncertain, with potential for gradual inclusion in mainstream investment portfolios as regulatory reforms and institutional adoption of stablecoins may enhance market liquidity [21]