Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a "high rebound and stabilization" pattern, with spot gold struggling to break the key resistance level of $3,760 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3,749.05 per ounce, a slight increase of 0.35% from the previous day [2]. Group 1: Support Factors - Central bank liquidity release provides a buffer, with the People's Bank of China conducting a 600 billion yuan one-year MLF operation, signaling a commitment to stabilize growth and indirectly lowering the cost of holding gold [3]. - The trend of central banks in emerging markets continuing to purchase gold is expected to lead to over 1,000 tons of gold bought globally in 2024, with this trend persisting into 2025, providing fundamental support for gold prices [3]. - The physical consumption market is showing resilience, with leading domestic gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang raising prices to 1,098 yuan per gram and surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram respectively, indicating strong consumer demand despite high gold prices [4]. Group 2: Pressuring Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals are causing market fluctuations, with mixed expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts in November, leading to a short-term stabilization and rebound of the US dollar index, which suppresses upward movement in gold prices [5]. - Technical resistance is significant at the $3,760 per ounce level, which coincides with a Fibonacci retracement level since gold's rise from $3,300, compounded by selling pressure from previously trapped positions [6]. - The low level of 550,000 open contracts in COMEX gold indicates that institutional funds are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding breaking through key price levels, lacking the momentum to push gold prices higher [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a strong oscillation pattern due to the interplay of bullish and bearish factors [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Fed Chair Powell's speech showed some hawkish signals. Although the short-term may suppress gold prices, the logic of the easing cycle remains unchanged, and the financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to expand [1][8]. - Silver currently shares the same macro - easing logic as gold, and its price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in 9 months. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. Powell said employment growth has slowed, inflation has risen slightly, and there are still inflation risks [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 841.16 yuan/gram and closed at 835.08 yuan/gram, down 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 835.66 yuan/gram, down 0.24% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 10,128 yuan/kg and closed at 9,906 yuan/kg, down 2.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 457,876 lots, and the open interest was 171,891 lots. The night - session closed at 9,924 yuan/kg, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 17, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.091%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.536%, down 0.85 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On September 17, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by 136 lots and the short position changed by 171 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 366,327 lots, a change of 16.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots and the short position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,303,544 lots, a change of 33.27% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 975.66 tons, down 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,189.61 tons, down 28.23 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 10.30 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 860.41 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.30, a change of 1.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.56, a change of 0.41% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,144 kg, a change of 30.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 748,504 kg, a change of 47.11% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,740 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 62,070 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Buy on dips in the range of 815 - 820 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Buy on dips in the range of 9,750 - 9,800 yuan/kg [10]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [10]. - Options: On hold [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in major U.S. stock indices, driven by investor concerns over potential hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium [3]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 152.81 points, a decrease of 0.34%, closing at 44,785.50 points [3]. - The S&P 500 index dropped by 25.61 points, down 0.40%, to 6,370.17 points [3]. - The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 72.54 points, a decline of 0.34%, ending at 21,100.31 points [3]. - Large tech stocks experienced a downward trend, with Tesla down 1.17%, Meta down 1.15%, Amazon down 0.83%, Apple down 0.49%, Nvidia down 0.24%, Microsoft down 0.13%, and Google up 0.22% [3]. Sector Performance - Among the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, nine sectors declined, with the consumer staples sector experiencing the largest drop of 1.18% [5]. - Walmart's stock plummeted by 4.5% after reporting quarterly profits below expectations, despite raising its full-year sales and profit forecasts due to tariff-induced cost increases [5]. - Coty, a beauty products manufacturer, saw its stock fall by 21.4% due to expectations of weak U.S. consumer spending impacting sales this quarter [5]. Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase in nearly three months, while continuing claims reached 1.972 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating a cooling job market [6]. - The housing market showed resilience, with July existing home sales annualized at 4.01 million, exceeding market expectations of 3.92 million and the previous value of 3.93 million [6]. Commodity Prices - As of the close on August 21, crude oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures for October delivery rising by $0.81 to $63.52 per barrel, a gain of 1.29% [6]. - Brent crude oil futures for October delivery also rose by $0.83 to $67.67 per barrel, an increase of 1.24% [6]. - COMEX gold futures for the current month fell by $6.90, a decrease of 0.20%, settling at $3,381.60 per ounce [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. The production profit of steel mills has improved notably. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, the steel mill output is expected to increase in August. At the demand - end, as the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously积压 orders have been released. Meanwhile, holders have a high willingness to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the decline in positions and prices weakens the bullish sentiment, and attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of stainless steel is - 65 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of stainless steel is - 10,049 lots, an increase of 135 lots; the position of the main contract of stainless steel is 138,810 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity of stainless steel is 118,640 tons, a decrease of 1,129 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the SS main contract is 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons; the spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly chromite output in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6行业消息 - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that most people think inflation is a higher risk than employment and sent a hawkish signal. Most policymakers believe the upside risk of inflation exceeds the downside risk of employment, but some think the risks are balanced, and two think employment risk is more prominent. The National Energy Administration released that the total electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. At the raw material end, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy has restricted issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. However, the ferronickel production capacity in Indonesia is being released faster, and the output has rebounded significantly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The import volume of zinc mines at home and abroad has increased, the processing fees for zinc mines have continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, leading to further restoration of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacities and the resumption of previously overhauled capacities, the supply growth has accelerated. The import loss has continued to widen, resulting in a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has declined, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand at low prices, but the overall trading remains dull. The domestic social inventory has continued to increase, and the spot premium has declined. The LME inventory overseas has decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downward, which may weaken the support for the domestic zinc price. Technically, the price has adjusted at a low position of open interest, breaking below the MA60. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,000. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,770 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 216,150 lots, an increase of 1,551 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 4,802 lots, an increase of 1,178 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 32,288 tons, unchanged; the SHFE inventory is 76,803 tons, an increase of 10,886 tons; the LME inventory is 72,200 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 10.26 dollars/ton, down 1.61 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons; the zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 1.149 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, an increase of 24.6739 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 5.1%, down 0.28%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.35%, an increase of 0.18% [3]. Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that most people thought inflation was a higher risk than employment and sent a hawkish signal. Most policymakers believed that the upside risk of inflation exceeded the downside risk of employment, but some thought the risks were balanced, and two thought the employment risk was more prominent. The National Energy Administration released the total social electricity consumption in July, which reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].

Group 1 - The current high level of the US stock market is heavily reliant on the expectation of a rate cut in September, and any hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve during the meeting could trigger a market correction [2] - The S&P 500 index has reached 6400 points, with a year-to-date increase of 10%, driven by strong earnings from large tech companies, which has boosted investor confidence in overall market growth [2] - Despite the anticipation of a rate cut, there is a risk that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may still convey a hawkish stance, prioritizing inflation control and suggesting that relatively high interest rates may persist [2][3] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates too quickly, it could stimulate demand and inflation, hindering the achievement of price stability goals [3] - The upcoming annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole may see Powell indicating that after a September rate cut, the Fed will cautiously monitor inflation trends before deciding on further cuts [3] - Current market expectations suggest more than two rate cuts within the year, which has led to a decline in two-year Treasury yields from around 4% in May to approximately 3.7% [3] Group 3 - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 has increased from 21.4 times expected earnings in mid-May to 22.5 times, reflecting the belief that lower interest rates support corporate profit expectations [4] - Should the Federal Reserve signal a hawkish approach and yields rise, the P/E ratio may revert to May levels, potentially leading to a nearly 5% decline in the S&P 500 to around 6100 points [4] - Analysts suggest that for investors looking to avoid significant disappointment in returns, now is not an opportune time to aggressively buy stocks [4]

Group 1: General Information - Report Period: June 23 - 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Weekly Report on Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be near the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, the Fed's hawkish signals pushed up the US dollar and US Treasury yields, suppressing the gold price. However, geopolitical risks (escalation of the Middle - East conflict) and ETF purchases (an 8.31 - ton weekly increase in SPDR) provided support, causing gold to enter a consolidation phase. Next week, focus on economic data (core PCE, non - farm payrolls) and geopolitical situations. Weak data strengthening the interest - rate cut expectation or new changes in the Middle - East may lead to a gold price rebound; a continuously strengthening US dollar may continue to drive the price down. Central bank gold purchases provide long - term support, but policy fluctuations may intensify short - term volatility [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 774 - 782, and the upper resistance was 800 - 808 [10] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the main gold contract 2508 will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The lower support is 766 - 775, and the upper resistance is 800 - 808 [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the trend of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, 10 - year US Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold's internal - external price difference [17][19][21] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a consolidation phase, and it may be near the end of the trend [30] - Trend Logic: Last week, the silver price first rose and then fell, mainly driven by fluctuations in Fed policy expectations (interest rates remained unchanged but the easing expectation increased) and US dollar fluctuations. The industrial property of silver (surge in photovoltaic demand + global shortage) drove the silver price to a new high. The repair of the gold - silver ratio strengthened the upward trend, but hawkish signals and the stabilization of the US dollar led to profit - taking. Next week, a tight supply - demand balance (low inventory) and dovish expectations are expected to support a relatively strong consolidation. Be vigilant against the suppression of a US dollar rebound, and the impact of geopolitical risks is limited [30] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the silver contract 2508 would operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the trend of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver prices, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver's internal - external price difference [41][43][45]

Group 1 - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.61% to $3387.4 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.5% to $36.36 per ounce [4][5] - As of the latest report, gold prices continued to weaken, trading at $3381.30 per ounce [4] - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates while signaling a hawkish stance has heightened market concerns over inflation and tariffs, leading to a shift of funds towards dollar assets, which puts pressure on gold [5] Group 2 - A significant explosion was reported in Tehran, with multiple locations in the city affected, including military bases in the Lavizan area [6][7] - Iran's airspace has been closed until noon on June 20 due to the current security situation, resulting in the suspension of all commercial flights [11][12] - Iran claims to have shot down two Israeli "Heron" drones in recent days, indicating ongoing military tensions [9][10] Group 3 - The White House announced that President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to attack Iran, with ongoing communications between the U.S. and Iran [17][19] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel has the capability to destroy all of Iran's nuclear facilities and has already destroyed over half of Iran's missile launchers [20][21] - Since June 13, Israel has conducted large-scale airstrikes against various Iranian targets, resulting in significant casualties [23] Group 4 - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed readiness for high-level meetings and a willingness to meet with Putin, indicating a desire to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict during Trump's presidency [24][25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent U.S. Federal Court ruling has boosted market risk sentiment, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand and a decline in gold prices for four consecutive trading days, reaching a one-and-a-half-week low [1] - Multiple factors are pressuring gold prices, including hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar index returning to the 100 mark [1] - Despite the recent weakness in gold prices due to a rebound in the dollar and decreased safe-haven demand, medium to long-term support factors are accumulating, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - The upcoming release of the U.S. PCE price index on Friday is highlighted as an important reference point for assessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and gold price trends [1] - The short-term gold price trend is indicated to be weak, with the Bollinger Bands showing an upward opening, while the short-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, continuing to exert pressure on gold prices [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes maintaining a low long position, focusing on buying opportunities after pullbacks, with specific resistance and support levels identified for trading [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has transformed it from a traditional safe-haven asset into a high-risk investment, particularly among younger investors who treat it like a stock for short-term trading [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since May, gold has experienced significant fluctuations, with daily price changes often exceeding 2%, comparable to tech stocks [3]. - The interplay of three main forces is driving this volatility: hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve boosting the dollar index, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations reducing safe-haven demand, and ongoing gold purchases by global central banks providing a support mechanism [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Younger investors, particularly those born in the 1990s, now account for 47% of bank gold accumulation business, showing a trend of frequent trading and a preference for short-term gains [3]. - This shift in investment strategy contrasts sharply with older generations who view gold as a long-term asset for wealth preservation [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical instances of gold price drops, such as a 9% decline in 2008 and prolonged losses after the 2013 buying spree by Chinese retail investors, highlight the risks associated with short-term trading in gold [3]. - The current market conditions serve as a reminder that all assets have cyclical patterns, and chasing price movements can lead to significant risks [4].