Report Summary - **Report Date**: March 30, 2026 - **Research Institute**: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekend market was dominated by geopolitical conflicts and policy games. Energy and precious metals fluctuated violently. The escalation of the Middle East situation pushed up the risk premium of crude oil, and the price of domestic refined gold jewelry approached 1,400 yuan/gram. Macro - policies showed differentiation: overseas, the Fed's dot - plot implied only one interest - rate cut in 2026, which suppressed risk assets; domestically, the central bank maintained reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year, showing the resilience of the industrial fundamentals [1]. - In 2026 Q1, the global capital market was characterized by global differentiation, technology re - evaluation, and policy disturbances. In Q2, as the earnings reports are released, the market logic will shift from "speculating on expectations" to "looking at performance realization" [4][11]. 3. Summary of Each Section Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session rose 2.67%. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran shows no sign of stopping. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal and put forward strict conditions. The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran [2][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in shock consolidation. The current adjustment is driven by the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fell. The previous trading day, the stock index opened low and closed high. In Q2, the market logic will change, and high - valuation growth stocks face pressure, while low - valuation, high - dividend, and cash - flow - stable assets have stronger defensive properties [4][11]. Daily News Focus - **International News**: US President Trump claimed to control the Strait of Hormuz, and Vice - President Vance said the US would withdraw from Iran after completing its goals and that the rise in oil prices was a short - term reaction [6]. - **Domestic News**: On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the Boao Forum for Asia, Hainan Free Trade Port made its first global appearance after the whole - island customs closure [7]. - **Industry News**: From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with significant growth in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [8][9]. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 fell 1.67%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.79%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.70%, the US dollar index rose 0.26%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 8.14%, and precious metals such as London gold and silver also rose [10]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: The stock index has the same situation as mentioned before. Treasury bonds have mixed performance. The central bank's operations keep the capital market relatively stable, but long - term treasury bond futures prices may face pressure due to factors such as the Middle East situation and inflation expectations [11][12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical**: Methanol night - session rose 4.29%, with an increase in the operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and a decrease in coastal inventories. Rubber is in the low - production season, with new supply pressure expected, but the price is supported by the strong synthetic rubber. Polyolefins rebounded, and attention should be paid to the conflict situation and device operation. Glass and soda ash futures are weak, with high inventories and supply - demand imbalances [15][16][17][19]. - **Metals**: Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, downstream demand, and the US dollar. Aluminum prices may rise due to supply risks caused by the Middle East conflict [21][22][23]. - **Black Metals**: The double - coking market was weak on Friday night, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the recovery of rigid demand and the impact of the geopolitical conflict on the coal market [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal is affected by the Brazilian soybean harvest and the expected increase in US soybean exports. Oils are expected to be in high - level shock due to bio - fuel policies and oil price risks. The pig price is expected to remain low due to oversupply and weak demand. Sugar is affected by the Middle East situation and ethanol prices. Cotton is expected to be in shock in the short - term and supply may be tight in the long - term [26][27][28][29][30]. - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping European route fell on Friday. The price is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term [32].

Core Viewpoint - The macro market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and policy dynamics, with energy and precious metals experiencing significant volatility due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and differing monetary policies between the U.S. and China [1]. Group 1: Energy Market - The WTI crude oil price surged past $100 due to increased risk premiums from Middle Eastern tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran and Saudi Arabia [1]. - The domestic energy and chemical sectors showed strength as a result of rising oil prices, while the gold price approached 1400 yuan per gram due to safe-haven demand and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve [1]. - Indonesia's approval of export tariffs on coal and nickel, along with Russia's planned ban on gasoline exports starting in April, has added uncertainty to the prices of related commodities [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, primarily driven by a dual pressure from revised interest rate expectations and liquidity shocks, with a decrease in rate cut expectations leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and real interest rates [3]. - Long-term trends indicate that geopolitical risks are likely to elevate the price center for precious metals, with ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and a continued push for de-dollarization, leading to increased gold reserves by global central banks [3]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices fell, with the market showing a shift from "trading on expectations" to "looking for actual results" as the earnings season approaches [4]. - The first quarter of 2026 is characterized by global market differentiation, technology reassessment, and policy disruptions, with the Federal Reserve signaling a prolonged hawkish stance [4]. - High-valuation growth stocks, particularly in technology, face ongoing pressure from rising risk-free rates, while low-valuation, high-dividend assets are expected to exhibit stronger defensive characteristics amid external uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Industrial Profit Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year in January and February, reflecting a recovery in industrial performance [9]. - Notable profit growth was observed in the non-ferrous metals and chemical industries, with specific sectors like aluminum processing and inorganic salt manufacturing seeing profit increases of 264.0% and 518.5%, respectively [9].

Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing significant volatility due to a combination of "hawkish monetary policy" and "geopolitical uncertainty," leading to a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, while the stock market faces downward pressure [1] Oil - Oil prices have surged due to concerns over supply disruptions from the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, with WTI crude oil rising nearly 4% to above $93 and Brent crude oil surpassing $101 [1] - The hope for a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict is fading, and the U.S. is reportedly preparing military options against Iran, which could include ground troops and large-scale airstrikes [12] Precious Metals - Precious metals are under pressure, with COMEX gold dropping over 3% to below $4400 and silver falling by 6%, primarily due to declining interest rate expectations and tightening liquidity [2][18] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to rising geopolitical risks and increasing central bank gold reserves [2][18] Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices have retreated, with significant declines in technology stocks, while coal and oil sectors have shown strength [3][10] - The market is transitioning from "trading on expectations" to "focusing on earnings reports," with high-valuation growth stocks facing pressure from rising interest rates [3][10] Industry News - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a revenue of $9.327 billion for 2025, a 16.2% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 39% to $685 million [8] Financial Market Trends - The financing balance increased by 3.16 billion yuan to 25.996 billion yuan, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [3][10] - The first quarter of 2026 is characterized by global market differentiation, technology reassessment, and policy disruptions, with the Fed signaling a prolonged hawkish stance [3][10] Commodities - The energy sector, particularly methanol and asphalt, is leading gains due to cost-driven factors, while black commodities and some agricultural products are showing relative weakness [1][14]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank believes that the logic behind the recent Bitcoin crash has fundamentally changed, driven by macroeconomic headwinds, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, stalled regulatory processes, institutional capital outflows, and profit-taking by long-term holders [1] Group 1: Five Major Impacts - **Impact One: High Correlation with Tech Stocks** Bitcoin's recent decline is synchronized with the drop in U.S. stocks, indicating that it has not yet established itself as a defensive hedge [2][3] - **Impact Two: Increased Uncertainty in Monetary Policy** The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key driver of Bitcoin's decline, with a strong negative correlation between Bitcoin prices and Fed interest rates [8][9] - **Impact Three: Stalled Regulatory Key Legislation** The momentum for regulatory frameworks has stalled since the summer, which directly hinders Bitcoin's investment integration and liquidity [10][12] - **Impact Four: Institutional Capital Outflows and Liquidity Drain** The recent sell-off has created a vicious cycle of liquidity drain and institutional capital outflows, exacerbating market pressure [14] - **Impact Five: Profit-Taking by Long-Term Holders** Unlike previous crashes driven by new or leveraged traders, this adjustment has seen long-term holders cashing out, leading to increased supply in circulation [16][17] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - **Market Dynamics** The correlation between Bitcoin and major stock indices has surged, reaching levels similar to those during the market stress of the COVID-19 pandemic [6][7] - **Future Outlook** The ability of Bitcoin to stabilize post-adjustment remains uncertain, with potential for gradual inclusion in mainstream investment portfolios as regulatory reforms and institutional adoption of stablecoins may enhance market liquidity [21]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the high valuation pressure on US tech stocks leading to market sell-offs, which has spread to Asian and European markets, gold has seen a mild rebound. However, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts has limited the upside for gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off in US tech stocks has influenced global markets, pushing gold prices to experience a mild rebound [1]. - The Federal Reserve's signals against rate cuts have led to a reduction in market bets for a December rate cut, which has put pressure on gold prices [1][3]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices faced resistance at $4,110, retreated to $4,042, and then fluctuated around $4,085 before stabilizing [3]. - The price of gold fluctuated within a range, with a low of $4,038 and a closing price around $4,087, indicating a range-bound trading pattern [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The release of the US non-farm payroll data for September showed mixed results, with an increase in job numbers but a rise in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in wage growth [3]. - Following the data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut slightly increased to 35%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate approached 65% [3].

Group 1 - The recent sell-off of gold ETFs in developed markets is nearing its end, with 86% of the total sell-off from April to May already released in the past 8 trading days [1] - On October 27, the most significant sell-off occurred, with a reduction of 449,000 troy ounces, following a four-day period of the largest daily price drop, indicating that the price drop triggered ETF outflows rather than the other way around [1] - Gold prices have shown resilience, maintaining above the key support level of $3,900 per ounce despite hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate hikes in December [1] Group 2 - Short-term market volatility risks are present, with the current one-month gold volatility significantly exceeding implied volatility, creating a gap of -12.6, the largest since March 2020 [1] - Historical trends suggest that such volatility gaps typically narrow to normal levels within 2-3 months, with fundamental factors expected to support a recovery in gold prices by year-end [1] - The Shanghai gold price increased by 1.09%, closing at 937 yuan per gram [3] Group 3 - The U.S. economy and job market are facing challenges from government shutdowns and trade tensions, while the Federal Reserve's internal divisions and hawkish signals add to short-term policy uncertainty [4] - Increased central bank purchases of gold and a shift in asset pricing strategies are expected to drive precious metals towards a bull market similar to the 1970s in the medium to long term [4] - Short-term international gold is expected to exhibit wide fluctuations, with buying opportunities if prices drop below $3,900 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector is under pressure, with significant declines in major tech stocks, reflecting investor concerns over high valuations and the impact of the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals on interest rate expectations [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Kingsoft Corporation (03888) fell by 2.53%, trading at HKD 30.8 - Tencent Holdings (00700) decreased by 2.2%, trading at HKD 622.5 - Alibaba Group (09988) saw a slight decline of 0.13%, trading at HKD 154.7 after an early gain of over 2% [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant sell-off, particularly among large tech stocks, as investors reassess the fundamentals of the AI hype [1] - Concerns over high valuations in tech stocks have dominated market sentiment in recent weeks [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve's ongoing hawkish signals have increased uncertainty regarding a potential rate cut in December, with the market's expectation for a 25 basis point cut dropping from 70% to 40% [1] Group 4: Analyst Insights - Dongwu Securities suggests that Hong Kong's tech sector is still in a short-term adjustment phase, with insufficient upward momentum for AI tech stocks due to a lack of new catalysts [1] - The market is awaiting signals from Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, while the long-term attractiveness of Hong Kong tech stocks is highlighted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen appears weak, influenced by the unexpectedly hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, highlighting a contrast in policy stances between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan remains cautious regarding interest rate hikes, while the Federal Reserve is also careful about interest rate cuts, creating a stark policy divergence [1] - There is still potential for the Bank of Japan to adjust its policies within the year, indicating that there may be room for policy changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a "high rebound and stabilization" pattern, with spot gold struggling to break the key resistance level of $3,760 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3,749.05 per ounce, a slight increase of 0.35% from the previous day [2]. Group 1: Support Factors - Central bank liquidity release provides a buffer, with the People's Bank of China conducting a 600 billion yuan one-year MLF operation, signaling a commitment to stabilize growth and indirectly lowering the cost of holding gold [3]. - The trend of central banks in emerging markets continuing to purchase gold is expected to lead to over 1,000 tons of gold bought globally in 2024, with this trend persisting into 2025, providing fundamental support for gold prices [3]. - The physical consumption market is showing resilience, with leading domestic gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang raising prices to 1,098 yuan per gram and surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram respectively, indicating strong consumer demand despite high gold prices [4]. Group 2: Pressuring Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals are causing market fluctuations, with mixed expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts in November, leading to a short-term stabilization and rebound of the US dollar index, which suppresses upward movement in gold prices [5]. - Technical resistance is significant at the $3,760 per ounce level, which coincides with a Fibonacci retracement level since gold's rise from $3,300, compounded by selling pressure from previously trapped positions [6]. - The low level of 550,000 open contracts in COMEX gold indicates that institutional funds are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding breaking through key price levels, lacking the momentum to push gold prices higher [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a strong oscillation pattern due to the interplay of bullish and bearish factors [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Fed Chair Powell's speech showed some hawkish signals. Although the short-term may suppress gold prices, the logic of the easing cycle remains unchanged, and the financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to expand [1][8]. - Silver currently shares the same macro - easing logic as gold, and its price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in 9 months. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. Powell said employment growth has slowed, inflation has risen slightly, and there are still inflation risks [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 841.16 yuan/gram and closed at 835.08 yuan/gram, down 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 835.66 yuan/gram, down 0.24% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 10,128 yuan/kg and closed at 9,906 yuan/kg, down 2.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 457,876 lots, and the open interest was 171,891 lots. The night - session closed at 9,924 yuan/kg, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 17, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.091%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.536%, down 0.85 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On September 17, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by 136 lots and the short position changed by 171 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 366,327 lots, a change of 16.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots and the short position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,303,544 lots, a change of 33.27% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 975.66 tons, down 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,189.61 tons, down 28.23 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 10.30 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 860.41 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.30, a change of 1.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.56, a change of 0.41% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,144 kg, a change of 30.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 748,504 kg, a change of 47.11% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,740 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 62,070 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Buy on dips in the range of 815 - 820 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Buy on dips in the range of 9,750 - 9,800 yuan/kg [10]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [10]. - Options: On hold [10]