Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank believes that the logic behind the recent Bitcoin crash has fundamentally changed, driven by macroeconomic headwinds, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, stalled regulatory processes, institutional capital outflows, and profit-taking by long-term holders [1] Group 1: Five Major Impacts - **Impact One: High Correlation with Tech Stocks** Bitcoin's recent decline is synchronized with the drop in U.S. stocks, indicating that it has not yet established itself as a defensive hedge [2][3] - **Impact Two: Increased Uncertainty in Monetary Policy** The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key driver of Bitcoin's decline, with a strong negative correlation between Bitcoin prices and Fed interest rates [8][9] - **Impact Three: Stalled Regulatory Key Legislation** The momentum for regulatory frameworks has stalled since the summer, which directly hinders Bitcoin's investment integration and liquidity [10][12] - **Impact Four: Institutional Capital Outflows and Liquidity Drain** The recent sell-off has created a vicious cycle of liquidity drain and institutional capital outflows, exacerbating market pressure [14] - **Impact Five: Profit-Taking by Long-Term Holders** Unlike previous crashes driven by new or leveraged traders, this adjustment has seen long-term holders cashing out, leading to increased supply in circulation [16][17] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - **Market Dynamics** The correlation between Bitcoin and major stock indices has surged, reaching levels similar to those during the market stress of the COVID-19 pandemic [6][7] - **Future Outlook** The ability of Bitcoin to stabilize post-adjustment remains uncertain, with potential for gradual inclusion in mainstream investment portfolios as regulatory reforms and institutional adoption of stablecoins may enhance market liquidity [21]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the high valuation pressure on US tech stocks leading to market sell-offs, which has spread to Asian and European markets, gold has seen a mild rebound. However, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts has limited the upside for gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off in US tech stocks has influenced global markets, pushing gold prices to experience a mild rebound [1]. - The Federal Reserve's signals against rate cuts have led to a reduction in market bets for a December rate cut, which has put pressure on gold prices [1][3]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices faced resistance at $4,110, retreated to $4,042, and then fluctuated around $4,085 before stabilizing [3]. - The price of gold fluctuated within a range, with a low of $4,038 and a closing price around $4,087, indicating a range-bound trading pattern [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The release of the US non-farm payroll data for September showed mixed results, with an increase in job numbers but a rise in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in wage growth [3]. - Following the data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut slightly increased to 35%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate approached 65% [3].

Group 1 - The recent sell-off of gold ETFs in developed markets is nearing its end, with 86% of the total sell-off from April to May already released in the past 8 trading days [1] - On October 27, the most significant sell-off occurred, with a reduction of 449,000 troy ounces, following a four-day period of the largest daily price drop, indicating that the price drop triggered ETF outflows rather than the other way around [1] - Gold prices have shown resilience, maintaining above the key support level of $3,900 per ounce despite hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate hikes in December [1] Group 2 - Short-term market volatility risks are present, with the current one-month gold volatility significantly exceeding implied volatility, creating a gap of -12.6, the largest since March 2020 [1] - Historical trends suggest that such volatility gaps typically narrow to normal levels within 2-3 months, with fundamental factors expected to support a recovery in gold prices by year-end [1] - The Shanghai gold price increased by 1.09%, closing at 937 yuan per gram [3] Group 3 - The U.S. economy and job market are facing challenges from government shutdowns and trade tensions, while the Federal Reserve's internal divisions and hawkish signals add to short-term policy uncertainty [4] - Increased central bank purchases of gold and a shift in asset pricing strategies are expected to drive precious metals towards a bull market similar to the 1970s in the medium to long term [4] - Short-term international gold is expected to exhibit wide fluctuations, with buying opportunities if prices drop below $3,900 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector is under pressure, with significant declines in major tech stocks, reflecting investor concerns over high valuations and the impact of the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals on interest rate expectations [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Kingsoft Corporation (03888) fell by 2.53%, trading at HKD 30.8 - Tencent Holdings (00700) decreased by 2.2%, trading at HKD 622.5 - Alibaba Group (09988) saw a slight decline of 0.13%, trading at HKD 154.7 after an early gain of over 2% [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant sell-off, particularly among large tech stocks, as investors reassess the fundamentals of the AI hype [1] - Concerns over high valuations in tech stocks have dominated market sentiment in recent weeks [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve's ongoing hawkish signals have increased uncertainty regarding a potential rate cut in December, with the market's expectation for a 25 basis point cut dropping from 70% to 40% [1] Group 4: Analyst Insights - Dongwu Securities suggests that Hong Kong's tech sector is still in a short-term adjustment phase, with insufficient upward momentum for AI tech stocks due to a lack of new catalysts [1] - The market is awaiting signals from Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, while the long-term attractiveness of Hong Kong tech stocks is highlighted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen appears weak, influenced by the unexpectedly hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, highlighting a contrast in policy stances between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan remains cautious regarding interest rate hikes, while the Federal Reserve is also careful about interest rate cuts, creating a stark policy divergence [1] - There is still potential for the Bank of Japan to adjust its policies within the year, indicating that there may be room for policy changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a "high rebound and stabilization" pattern, with spot gold struggling to break the key resistance level of $3,760 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3,749.05 per ounce, a slight increase of 0.35% from the previous day [2]. Group 1: Support Factors - Central bank liquidity release provides a buffer, with the People's Bank of China conducting a 600 billion yuan one-year MLF operation, signaling a commitment to stabilize growth and indirectly lowering the cost of holding gold [3]. - The trend of central banks in emerging markets continuing to purchase gold is expected to lead to over 1,000 tons of gold bought globally in 2024, with this trend persisting into 2025, providing fundamental support for gold prices [3]. - The physical consumption market is showing resilience, with leading domestic gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang raising prices to 1,098 yuan per gram and surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram respectively, indicating strong consumer demand despite high gold prices [4]. Group 2: Pressuring Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals are causing market fluctuations, with mixed expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts in November, leading to a short-term stabilization and rebound of the US dollar index, which suppresses upward movement in gold prices [5]. - Technical resistance is significant at the $3,760 per ounce level, which coincides with a Fibonacci retracement level since gold's rise from $3,300, compounded by selling pressure from previously trapped positions [6]. - The low level of 550,000 open contracts in COMEX gold indicates that institutional funds are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding breaking through key price levels, lacking the momentum to push gold prices higher [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a strong oscillation pattern due to the interplay of bullish and bearish factors [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Fed Chair Powell's speech showed some hawkish signals. Although the short-term may suppress gold prices, the logic of the easing cycle remains unchanged, and the financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to expand [1][8]. - Silver currently shares the same macro - easing logic as gold, and its price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in 9 months. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. Powell said employment growth has slowed, inflation has risen slightly, and there are still inflation risks [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 841.16 yuan/gram and closed at 835.08 yuan/gram, down 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 835.66 yuan/gram, down 0.24% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 10,128 yuan/kg and closed at 9,906 yuan/kg, down 2.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 457,876 lots, and the open interest was 171,891 lots. The night - session closed at 9,924 yuan/kg, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 17, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.091%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.536%, down 0.85 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On September 17, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by 136 lots and the short position changed by 171 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 366,327 lots, a change of 16.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots and the short position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,303,544 lots, a change of 33.27% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 975.66 tons, down 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,189.61 tons, down 28.23 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 10.30 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 860.41 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.30, a change of 1.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.56, a change of 0.41% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,144 kg, a change of 30.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 748,504 kg, a change of 47.11% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,740 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 62,070 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Buy on dips in the range of 815 - 820 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Buy on dips in the range of 9,750 - 9,800 yuan/kg [10]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [10]. - Options: On hold [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in major U.S. stock indices, driven by investor concerns over potential hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium [3]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 152.81 points, a decrease of 0.34%, closing at 44,785.50 points [3]. - The S&P 500 index dropped by 25.61 points, down 0.40%, to 6,370.17 points [3]. - The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 72.54 points, a decline of 0.34%, ending at 21,100.31 points [3]. - Large tech stocks experienced a downward trend, with Tesla down 1.17%, Meta down 1.15%, Amazon down 0.83%, Apple down 0.49%, Nvidia down 0.24%, Microsoft down 0.13%, and Google up 0.22% [3]. Sector Performance - Among the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, nine sectors declined, with the consumer staples sector experiencing the largest drop of 1.18% [5]. - Walmart's stock plummeted by 4.5% after reporting quarterly profits below expectations, despite raising its full-year sales and profit forecasts due to tariff-induced cost increases [5]. - Coty, a beauty products manufacturer, saw its stock fall by 21.4% due to expectations of weak U.S. consumer spending impacting sales this quarter [5]. Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase in nearly three months, while continuing claims reached 1.972 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating a cooling job market [6]. - The housing market showed resilience, with July existing home sales annualized at 4.01 million, exceeding market expectations of 3.92 million and the previous value of 3.93 million [6]. Commodity Prices - As of the close on August 21, crude oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures for October delivery rising by $0.81 to $63.52 per barrel, a gain of 1.29% [6]. - Brent crude oil futures for October delivery also rose by $0.83 to $67.67 per barrel, an increase of 1.24% [6]. - COMEX gold futures for the current month fell by $6.90, a decrease of 0.20%, settling at $3,381.60 per ounce [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. The production profit of steel mills has improved notably. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, the steel mill output is expected to increase in August. At the demand - end, as the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously积压 orders have been released. Meanwhile, holders have a high willingness to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the decline in positions and prices weakens the bullish sentiment, and attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of stainless steel is - 65 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of stainless steel is - 10,049 lots, an increase of 135 lots; the position of the main contract of stainless steel is 138,810 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity of stainless steel is 118,640 tons, a decrease of 1,129 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the SS main contract is 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons; the spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly chromite output in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6行业消息 - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that most people think inflation is a higher risk than employment and sent a hawkish signal. Most policymakers believe the upside risk of inflation exceeds the downside risk of employment, but some think the risks are balanced, and two think employment risk is more prominent. The National Energy Administration released that the total electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. At the raw material end, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy has restricted issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. However, the ferronickel production capacity in Indonesia is being released faster, and the output has rebounded significantly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The import volume of zinc mines at home and abroad has increased, the processing fees for zinc mines have continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, leading to further restoration of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacities and the resumption of previously overhauled capacities, the supply growth has accelerated. The import loss has continued to widen, resulting in a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has declined, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand at low prices, but the overall trading remains dull. The domestic social inventory has continued to increase, and the spot premium has declined. The LME inventory overseas has decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downward, which may weaken the support for the domestic zinc price. Technically, the price has adjusted at a low position of open interest, breaking below the MA60. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,000. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,770 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 216,150 lots, an increase of 1,551 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 4,802 lots, an increase of 1,178 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 32,288 tons, unchanged; the SHFE inventory is 76,803 tons, an increase of 10,886 tons; the LME inventory is 72,200 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 10.26 dollars/ton, down 1.61 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons; the zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 1.149 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, an increase of 24.6739 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 5.1%, down 0.28%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.35%, an increase of 0.18% [3]. Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that most people thought inflation was a higher risk than employment and sent a hawkish signal. Most policymakers believed that the upside risk of inflation exceeded the downside risk of employment, but some thought the risks were balanced, and two thought the employment risk was more prominent. The National Energy Administration released the total social electricity consumption in July, which reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].