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2025年首个左侧减仓信号兑现,市场趋势如期转向
鲁明量化全视角· 2025-03-23 01:56
Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that the first left-side reduction signal for 2025 has been confirmed, leading to a market trend shift as anticipated [1][2]. Weekly Recommendations - The suggested positions for the main board and small-cap sectors are both medium positions, with a balanced style recommendation [1]. Market Performance - Last week, the market experienced significant adjustments, with the CSI 300 index down by 2.29%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.60%, and the CSI 500 index down by 2.10% [2]. - The article highlights that the first reduction signal after two months of optimism was timely, coinciding with a notable market decline [2]. Fundamental Analysis - The expectation for monetary easing has not materialized, as evidenced by the unchanged LPR rates on March 20, which were below market expectations. The domestic economy is stabilizing but not showing strong recovery [2][3]. - The article discusses the "Trumpcession" narrative in the U.S., suggesting that the market's previous optimism regarding Trump's policies leading to economic prosperity was misguided. The current economic downturn is viewed as a forced and unavoidable recession rather than a deliberate outcome [2][3]. Technical Analysis - The market's technical adjustment has shifted from left-side signals to right-side signals, confirming the reduction signal as a precise indicator of the market peak [3]. - The article emphasizes that without significant positive news, the current technical trend suggests that any rebound should be viewed as an opportunity to reduce positions [3]. Sector Focus - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on industries such as light manufacturing and machinery [3].