Core Insights - The long-term rental market is undergoing a new round of adjustments in the first half of 2025, with a notable decline in rental prices for personal housing across 55 cities in China, reflecting a 3.6% year-on-year decrease [1][2][8] - The continuous decline in personal housing rental prices since 2022 has not uniformly impacted centralized apartments, as city scale and market structure play crucial roles in the transmission effects [1][4][7] Rental Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the average rental price for centralized apartments in the core eight cities was 101.14 yuan/㎡/month, showing a slight increase of 0.07% month-on-month but a decrease of 3.33% year-on-year [8][18] - The rental price for personal housing has been in decline for four consecutive years, with the current decline being more pronounced than in previous years [2][4] City-Specific Trends - There is a significant divergence in rental price trends among different cities. Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou have seen rental declines for centralized apartments that are less severe than those for personal housing, while cities like Chengdu, Wuhan, and Nanjing have experienced the opposite [4][7] - The rental price decline in cities with a high proportion of affordable rental housing, such as Shanghai and Chengdu, has been more pronounced, with declines ranging from 4% to 7% [8][17] Resilient Segments - Despite the overall downward trend, over a hundred segments in the core eight cities have seen rental prices rise against the market trend, indicating pockets of resilience within the centralized apartment market [14][18] - Key characteristics of these resilient segments include strong industrial clusters and population influx, which create stable rental demand and support rental price increases [18][19] Impact of Affordable Housing - The proportion of affordable rental housing significantly influences rental price declines, with cities like Shanghai having nearly 60% of their rental market composed of affordable housing, which has a direct impact on average market prices [8][17] - In contrast, cities with lower proportions of affordable housing, such as Nanjing and Beijing, have experienced smaller rental price fluctuations [8][18] Strategic Recommendations - For operators in high-capacity cities, it is crucial to develop differentiated operational models and enhance product and service offerings to maintain rental price stability [24] - In medium-sized cities, operators should consider transitioning to light-asset models and optimizing cost structures to mitigate the impact of personal housing price competition [24]