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李宁(02331.HK):流水低单位数增长 库存保持健康水平
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-17 19:24
Core Viewpoint - Company reported a low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for Q2 2025, continuing the trend from Q1 2025 [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - For Q2 2025, retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, consistent with Q1 performance [1] - Offline channel sales experienced a low single-digit year-on-year decline, with direct sales down in the mid-single digits and wholesale channel sales up in the low single digits [1] - E-commerce channel sales grew in the mid-single digits, outperforming offline retail growth [1] - The running and fitness categories continued to lead market performance, with expected high single-digit year-on-year growth in sales [1] - Basketball category remains under pressure, while sports lifestyle category sales were flat year-on-year; smaller categories like outdoor and badminton showed rapid growth [1] Group 2: Channel and Store Strategy - As of June 30, the number of sales points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) decreased by 18 to 6099, with a net increase of 11 from Q1 [2] - Li Ning YOUNG sales points decreased by 33 to 1435, with a net decrease of 18 from Q1 [2] - Company maintains a steady store strategy focused on optimizing individual stores amid a fluctuating consumer environment [2] - The company expects to see stable store expansion throughout the year, entering a peak opening season in the second half [2] Group 3: Marketing and Future Outlook - Company plans to focus marketing efforts around themes of Yang Hansheng and the Olympics, leveraging his NBA selection for promotional activities [2] - The company has resumed its role as the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee and the Chinese sports delegation, with a marketing focus on "Olympics + Technology" in the second half [2] - Company forecasts revenue growth of 1.7%/5.3%/4.5% for 2025-2027, reaching 29.15/30.69/32.07 billion yuan, with net profit projections of -12.6%/+6.6%/+6.1% to 2.63/2.81/2.98 billion yuan [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with corresponding valuations of 15/14/13 times for the years 2025-2027 [3]