防御性流动性综合征

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阿根廷经济学家警告称“美元汇率年底或突破1500比索”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 21:33
Group 1 - Economist Alexis Puete warns that the dollar exchange rate in Argentina may exceed 1500 pesos by the end of the year, criticizing the government's policy of suppressing the dollar rate at all costs [1][2] - The current economic situation is described as a "defensive liquidity syndrome," where banks prefer to maintain liquidity rather than pursue profitability, raising questions about the logic of government policies [1] - High interest rates paid by the government to banks, reaching up to 60%, with collateralized loans at 74% and overdraft rates at 80%, are highlighted as a significant concern [1][2] Group 2 - Puete predicts that the pressure on the dollar will soon be felt, particularly impacting supermarket prices due to the dollar component in all goods [2][3] - The Argentine economy faces multiple challenges, with the government attempting to control inflation and stabilize the exchange rate while dealing with significant fiscal tightening pressures [2][3] - The warning reflects long-standing structural economic issues in Argentina, including high inflation, exchange rate instability, and fiscal deficits [2]