With income tax rate hikes currently “off the menu”, Rachel Reeves is reportedly preparing a variety of “bite-sized” tax adjustments to help balance the nation’s finances, raising key questions about what specific measures will be included in the Chancellor’s upcoming “smorgasbord” budget and the overall scale of these changes, stated RSM UK. Although a few significant tax-raising measures—such as extending fiscal drag, council tax surcharges, and restrictions to salary sacrifice on pensions—are anticipat ...

债券交易员正在为英国政府通过发行更大规模国债以筹集更多资金做准备。根据一项对14家一级交易商 的调查，预测中值显示，英国政府将在本财政年度比英国债务管理办公室(DMO)于4月公布的计划多发 行90亿英镑(约合118亿美元)的英国国债，使得全年国债发行规模提高至3081亿英镑，为2021年以来的 最高水平。这也将是有史以来第二高的年度发债规模——仅次于大流行期间纾困计划迫使政府大幅提高 借款。 英国国债目前已成为财政担忧的焦点。继9月部分期限国债收益率创27年新高后，伴随财政紧缩的预 期，英国国债在上月创下近两年来最佳表现。尽管如此，英国国债收益率仍在主要发达国家中居首。 在秋季预算案公布前夕，投资者正如履薄冰。上周里夫斯放弃预算案中提高所得税的计划，引发市场剧 烈波动，英国国债收益率在上周五创7月以来最大涨幅。 本次预算案是这位财政大臣为政府财政创造缓冲空间的机会，以遵守日常支出由税收覆盖的财政规则， 并平息债券市场担忧。一个重要问题是：究竟能建立多少缓冲?消息人士上周透露，里夫斯的目标区间 为150亿至200亿英镑。接受调查的银行的预测中位数则为150亿英镑。 值得一提的是，即便借款规模预计增加，投资者仍会 ...

花旗预计到2026年第二季度，铜价将继续攀升至平均1.2万美元/吨（牛市情况为1.4万美元/吨）；预计 今年剩余时间铜交易价格约为1.1万美元/吨。忽略近期实物需求疲软的因素，目标价反映出2026年更看 涨的基本面设置，但如果看涨催化剂出现，铜价可能比预期更快涨至1.2万美元/吨。全球制造业情绪好 坏参半，意味着2025年剩余时间内周期性铜需求板块上行空间有限。预计在2024年较强劲消费的基础 上，2025年第四季度铜消费同比增长将持续走软，制造业活动也将放缓，但预计在美国宽松的财政和全 球货币政策的帮助下，到2026年将出现复苏。 4. 高盛预测：美国股市将在未来十年内表现逊于新兴市场 国外 1. 野村：预计美联储将在12月暂停降息 野村证券现在预计美联储将在12月维持利率不变，并辩称，尽管美国政府停摆影响了官方数据的发布， 但近期指标仍显示就业市场具有弹性。该行在给客户的一份报告中说，美联储主席鲍威尔在10月新闻发 布会上出人意料的强硬语气，强化了该行的观点，即美联储可能会在连续两次降息后暂停降息。暂停降 息可能会重新引发对美联储的政治压力，预计特朗普总统将批评这一决定，声称这是在大选年到来之际 对经济增 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月12日电今年阿根廷比索暴跌的原因之一是阿根廷的消费支出疲软，以及总统米莱对通 胀的"战争"，其中包括深度预算削减、对货币的严格控制以及央行停止印钞为公共支出融资的举措。 分析师指出，有三个因素可能限制最近比索贬值（自六月以来兑美元贬值超过20%）对通胀的影响：经 济放缓抑制了需求；米莱更紧缩的财政和货币立场；以及政府无论如何都要捍卫比索交易区间的决心。 如果这些效果能够持续，阿根廷经济可能会恢复近年来因通胀而失去的部分竞争力。 ...

Core Points - The unemployment rate in the UK rose to 5% for the three months ending in September, the highest level since early 2021, surpassing economists' expectations of 4.9% [1] - The number of employees decreased by 32,000 in October, with September's data also revised down by the same amount [1] - The redundancy rate increased to 4.5 per 1,000 employees, marking the highest level since January 2024 and the second highest since the pandemic began [5] - Private sector wage growth slowed from 4.4% to 4.2%, the lowest since early 2021, aligning with economists' median expectations [5] - Following the data release, traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England, with market pricing indicating an over 80% probability of action in December [5] - The report indicates a weakening labor market, with the Bank of England's Governor suggesting that if upcoming data confirms easing inflationary pressures, he may support a rate cut in December [5][6] Employment Market Insights - The employment report is the first in a series of data that will influence the Bank of England's decision on interest rates in December [6] - The upcoming GDP data and the budget announcement on November 26 are critical for the interest rate decision, with expectations of tax increases potentially impacting economic growth [6] - The rise in unemployment is attributed to the increase in national insurance contributions by £26 billion, which has drawn criticism from opposition parties and business groups [5][6] - The number of job vacancies increased by 2,000 compared to the previous quarter, but remains below pre-pandemic levels [11] - The unemployment-to-vacancy ratio reached its highest level since 2015, indicating a significant level of labor market slack [11] Wage Growth Dynamics - Real wage growth adjusted for inflation was only 0.8%, the weakest since August 2023, despite some sectors experiencing strong wage increases [11][14] - Public sector wages rose by 6.6%, the fastest growth since the end of 2023, influenced by earlier-than-expected pay increases [11] - Wages in wholesale, retail, and hospitality sectors also saw a robust increase of 5.7%, reflecting the impact of government tax increases on employment and minimum wage [14] - Nearly half of businesses reported reducing hiring due to the government's employment tax increase, while only 17% opted to lower wages [14]

Core Insights - Argentina has a clear path to political stability following recent elections, which alleviated previous economic and financial pessimism [1][4] - The current government under President Milei is implementing strong fiscal tightening and structural reforms, improving the fiscal situation by 5% of GDP in 2024, excluding interest payments [1][3] Economic Context - Argentina's economy faced liquidity issues rather than solvency problems, with a small current account deficit and a potential for $70 billion in foreign direct investment if market access is regained [2][3] - Inflation has significantly decreased from over 100% before Milei's election to around 30% [2] Political Developments - Milei's victory in the elections allowed him to secure a controversial $20 billion swap line from the U.S. Treasury, which was contingent on his electoral success [3] - The election results indicate that the Argentine populace prefers to endure short-term economic pain rather than revert to Peronist policies [3] Future Outlook - The potential for significant foreign direct investment could accelerate economic growth, positioning Argentina as a model for market-oriented reforms in Latin America [5] - A more flexible exchange rate system is suggested, allowing for a nominal effective exchange rate target while maintaining competitiveness and balance in international payments [4]

Core Insights - Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza party achieved a significant victory in Argentina's mid-term congressional elections, with approximately 10 million votes supporting his agenda, which is seen as a mandate for his economic reforms [2][4] - The election results indicate a shift towards "macroeconomic prudence," as nearly half of the voters preferred Milei's approach over left-wing parties, reflecting a desire to avoid large fiscal deficits [3][4] Political Landscape - Following the elections, Milei-supporting parties will hold 104 out of 257 seats in the lower house, providing him with the necessary support to uphold presidential vetoes and negotiate for a majority in key votes [4] - Analysts view this outcome as a pivotal moment for Milei, allowing him to advance his ambitious reform agenda and move past previous challenges [4] Economic Reforms - Milei's administration has initiated a "shock therapy" approach, focusing on austerity measures, liberalizing the exchange rate, and transforming Argentina into an export-driven economy to combat inflation and manage debt [5] - The first phase of reforms included devaluing the official exchange rate, which initially led to record monthly inflation of nearly 26%, but projections suggest a decrease to under 2% monthly by mid-2025 [6] - Significant cuts were made to government ministries, civil service employment, and public spending, alongside the abandonment of infrastructure projects and revisions to labor laws and the tax code, resulting in a budget surplus for the first time in a decade [7]

Group 1 - The Canadian government plans to reduce its economic and security dependence on the U.S. and cut wasteful spending in its upcoming budget [1][4] - Prime Minister Carney stated that the previous advantages gained from a close relationship with the U.S. have now become vulnerabilities [4] - The government aims to diversify exports to non-U.S. markets, targeting to double these exports over the next decade, which is expected to generate an additional CAD 300 billion in revenue [4] Group 2 - Recent trade tensions have severely impacted Canadian industries such as steel, aluminum, and automotive, prompting the government to seek agreements to mitigate tariffs [5] - A significant portion of the Canadian population is pessimistic about economic growth, with over half believing the economy will weaken in the next six months [5] - The Canadian government is revising its import tax exemptions for steel and aluminum products from China and the U.S., particularly those related to public health and national security [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The lower-than-expected UK inflation data released on Wednesday increases the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in December, posing further downside risks for the GBP against the EUR [1] Inflation Data - The overall UK inflation rate for September remained at 3.8%, while the core inflation rate slowed to 3.5%, contrary to market expectations for both metrics to accelerate [1] Wage Growth - Private sector wage growth, excluding bonuses, has also slowed down, indicating potential economic weakness [1] Fiscal Measures - The upcoming UK autumn budget in November is expected to include fiscal tightening measures, which could further influence the Bank of England's decision on interest rates [1] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Bank of England may only need to see further evidence of easing price pressures in the November inflation data to justify a rate cut in December [1]

Core Points - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, has indicated plans to cut public spending and increase taxes in the upcoming November budget to address a fiscal gap partly caused by Brexit [1][2] - Reeves emphasized the need for spending control to achieve fiscal balance, acknowledging the ongoing challenges in convincing Labour MPs to accept welfare cuts [1] - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has downgraded the UK's productivity growth forecast, which is expected to exacerbate the fiscal shortfall exceeding £30 billion [1] Group 1 - Reeves highlighted that fiscal tightening, Brexit, and the impact of the Truss mini-budget are putting pressure on the UK economy, with a consensus that Brexit has reduced the UK's economic size by 4% [2] - The Chancellor aims to create a "buffer" in the fiscal plan to avoid the annual cycle of tax increases and spending cuts, expressing a desire to end this cycle through economic growth [2] - Last year's budget included £40 billion in tax increases, but Reeves now faces significant fiscal repair tasks again [2] Group 2 - Shadow Chancellor Stride countered that Reeves should focus on controlling government spending, particularly welfare expenditures, rather than increasing taxes [2]