勒科尔尼上任不足一个月 9月8日，因主打财政紧缩的2026年财政预算草案引发争议和反对，时任法国总理贝鲁在国民议会信任投 票中未能过关，被迫辞职。9月9日晚，法国总统马克龙任命勒科尔尼接替贝鲁，担任政府总理一职。10 月5日，新任总理勒科尔尼正式组阁。 据法国媒体报道，勒科尔尼被视作马克龙的忠实追随者。去年12月巴尼耶政府下台后，马克龙原计划任 命勒科尔尼为总理，但在最后时刻改变想法任命了贝鲁。 新一届政府成员招致部分政党不满 （原标题：集体暴跌！黑天鹅来袭） 来源：综合自央视新闻 据央视新闻，当地时间10月6日，法国总理勒科尔尼向总统马克龙递交辞呈，马克龙已接受辞呈。而这 距离勒科尔尼被任命为总理还不满一个月。目前其突然辞职的原因尚不得而知。 消息传出，法国金融市场迅速作出反应，当日法国CAC40指数开盘后一度大跌超2%，创下近三个月最 大跌幅。截至最新，跌幅收窄至1.6%附近。汇率和债市方面，欧元/美元5分钟内大跌约30点，法国与德 国10年期国债收益率利差一度扩大至86个基点，为一月以来首次。 当地时间5日晚，法国总统府公布了新一届政府首批成员名单。根据勒科尔尼的建议，马克龙任命18名 政府成员，包括1 ...

9月8日，因主打财政紧缩的2026年财政预算草案引发争议和反对，时任总理贝鲁在国民议会信任投 票中未能过关，被迫辞职。财政预算草案也被搁置。时任国防部长勒科尔尼次日被马克龙任命为新总 理。 勒科尔尼自2022年5月起出任国防部长，被法国媒体视作马克龙的忠实追随者。（记者：乔本孝、 唐霁） 就在5日晚，法国总统府公布新一届政府首批成员名单。当时据法国媒体报道，勒科尔尼将分别在 国民议会和参议院介绍新一届政府总体政策，之后公布其余部长级代表的任命情况。马克龙原定于6日 举行首次新内阁会议。 新一届政府首批成员名单公布后，极右翼政党国民联盟主席巴尔代拉和极左翼政党"不屈法国"领导 人梅朗雄都在社交媒体上发文，批评新政府成员只是旧政府的"延续"，没有实质性改变。 法国总理勒科尔尼6日早向总统马克龙递交了辞呈。法国总统府6日发布公告说，马克龙已批准勒科 尔尼递交的辞呈。 ...

Core Insights - The fate of the Argentine peso is crucial for the Milei government's ability to navigate the current crisis, with consensus among Wall Street analysts indicating that the peso is significantly overvalued and requires a substantial devaluation to aid the government [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - Barclays Bank suggests that the real effective exchange rate of the Argentine peso needs to depreciate by up to 30% to stimulate the economy, while StoneX and local broker One618 estimate the peso is overvalued by about 20% [1]. - One618's chief economist, Juan Manuel Pazos, states that to meet the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) terms for a $20 billion agreement, the peso must reach an exchange rate of 1650 to 1700 against the dollar, compared to the recent closing price of 1408 [1]. - StoneX analyst Ramiro Blazquez believes a peso to dollar exchange rate of 1500 to 1600 is more reasonable for Argentina [1]. Group 2: Political Challenges - The Milei government faces significant political pressure, making it unlikely to allow a substantial weakening of the peso before the critical midterm elections in October, especially after recent local election losses [2]. - Following the unexpected defeat in local elections, investor confidence in the Milei government has wavered, leading to a sell-off of the Argentine peso [2]. - The Argentine central bank reportedly sold over $1 billion in foreign reserves within three days to defend the exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Impact - The strong peso, along with fiscal tightening, was initially used by the Milei government to stabilize the economy and combat hyperinflation, successfully reducing the annual inflation rate from over 200% a year ago to 33.6% currently [4]. - However, analysts indicate that the degree of overvaluation of the peso is increasing, causing concerns in a country with a history of long-term devaluation and defaults [5]. - The high valuation of the peso has led many Argentinians to shop abroad, and even local meat processors are importing beef, as it is more cost-effective than using local products [5]. Group 4: External Support - Amid market instability, the Milei government received support from the Trump administration, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin promising "all stabilization options" for Argentina, which led to a rise in Argentine assets and a 3.8% increase in the peso [6]. - However, this external support may complicate the situation, as it could exacerbate the overvaluation issue rather than alleviate it, making it harder to achieve the goal of currency recalibration [6]. - Further details are expected to emerge following a meeting between Milei and U.S. President Trump in New York [6].

取消扣税 阿根廷米莱总统自上任以来，以激进的财政紧缩和自由市场改革著称。市场原本期待这些政策能稳定经济，然而，在月初一场关键的地方选举失 利后，阿根廷外汇市场陷入动荡，阿根廷比索对美元汇率近一个月来大幅贬值，债券和股票市场也同步下跌。汇率崩盘的压力下阿根廷政府采取 了一系列救市措施，包括抛售外汇储备和临时取消农产品出口关税，希望借此促使出口商将更多的美元收入汇回国内，缓解比索的贬值压力。 当地时间周一，阿根廷政府相继宣布临时取消谷物和牛肉、家禽的出口税。就在本周一开市前，阿政府宣布在10月31日前对大豆等谷物取消预扣 税。经过多次下调后，大豆的出口税率为26%，副产品（豆粕和豆油）的税率为24.5%。 据悉，与谷物一样，从9月23日开始至今年10月31日，牛肉和家禽的预扣税从原有的5%降至零。同时要求，出口商必须在相应的出口销售申报单 （DJVE）提交的3个工作日内，在外汇市场（MULC）结算至少90%的外汇，无论是用于出口收款、结算预付款，还是外部预融资或后融资。 据阿根廷媒体报道，取消出口预扣税是为了推动该国农业部门出口更多农产品，以增加美元供给、稳定本币汇率。阿根廷总统发言人阿多尼通过 社交网络宣布：" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election is drawing significant attention from financial and capital markets, with varying predictions on market impacts depending on the candidates' economic policies [2][4][5]. Group 1: Candidate Analysis - Among the candidates, Takashi Kawai is noted for his strong fiscal expansion and monetary easing stance, with predictions suggesting that if he wins, the Nikkei average could rise to around 48,000 points by year-end [2][5]. - Shunichi Suzuki, representing a continuation of the current government's fiscal tightening policies, is perceived as lacking the ability to drive overall market growth, leading to expectations of a slight market adjustment if he wins [4][7]. - Yoshihide Suga's policies are expected to maintain the status quo, with limited impact on market fluctuations if he is elected [7][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market has reacted positively to the prospect of Kawai's victory, with short-term foreign capital inflows boosting related stocks, indicating a strong correlation between candidate selection and market performance [5][8]. - In the foreign exchange market, there is a consensus that Kawai's election would not hinder the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, with expectations for the yen to appreciate towards 145 yen per dollar [4][7]. - Conversely, if Suzuki wins, the yen may depreciate by approximately 2 yen against the dollar, reflecting concerns over fiscal policy direction [7]. Group 3: Economic Policy Implications - Kawai's economic policies emphasize growth through advanced technologies and tax revenue increases, while also showing signs of pragmatic adjustments, such as reconsidering previous tax reduction proposals [7][8]. - Concerns about fiscal deterioration are prevalent, with predictions that the 30-year government bond yield could drop to around 3% from its current level of approximately 3.2% [4][7]. - The upcoming election is expected to be more dynamic than in 2024, with a smaller candidate pool allowing for more in-depth discussions, potentially exposing weaknesses in candidates like Suzuki [8].

7月，法国时任总理贝鲁推出主打财政紧缩的2026年预算草案，措施包括把两个公共假日改为工作日、 削减医保支出等，以缓解公共债务压力。该方案遭到法国国民议会和民众反对。9月8日，贝鲁就财政政 策向法国国民议会寻求信任投票失利而辞职。时任国防部长勒科尔尼翌日被任命为新总理。 9月10日，部分不满财政紧缩政策的民众发起无工会领导的"封锁法国"大规模示威活动。据法国政府统 计，各地约有17.5万人参加。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 当地时间9月18日，法国多地发生大规模罢工和示威活动。据法国政府部门统计，全法共有超过50万人 参与罢工，其中首都巴黎约5.5万人。这是法国近期因反对政府财政紧缩方案而爆发的又一次大规模抗 议活动。 巴黎警察局长努涅兹表示，他对巴黎游行队伍中可能出现大量破坏分子感到非常担忧，并呼吁巴黎的商 户关闭店铺。当天，法国交通、教育、电力、医药等行业劳动者在不同程度上响应工会号召举行罢工， 呼吁制订"更加公正"的财政方案。巴黎、里昂、雷恩等城市的街头示威活动还伴随暴力及破坏事件。 据法国内政部通报，全法有超过300人被捕。受大罢工的影响，一些著名文化景点如卢浮宫和奥赛博物 馆的部分展厅也临时关闭。 法国 ...

新华财经法国斯特拉斯堡9月10日电 当地时间9日上午，法国斯特拉斯堡天空阴沉、细雨飘洒，欧洲议 会大楼外的广场显得冷清而潮湿；在大楼内，议员们则围绕欧洲是否应继续向乌克兰提供安全保障进行 着激烈交锋。自俄乌冲突爆发以来，欧洲对乌援助已进入第三个年头，花费超过1000亿欧元，如今在财 政紧缩和民意分化的背景下，"挺乌"还能走多远，成为这场辩论的焦点。 根据日程，欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表卡拉斯首先进行辩论发言。卡拉斯说，自2022年俄乌冲突爆发 以来，欧盟及其成员国已向乌克兰提供近1690亿欧元财政支持，其中军事援助超过630亿欧元。卡拉斯 还强调，到2027年，欧盟力争全面停止进口俄罗斯石油和天然气。 泽尔的愤慨并非孤例，匈牙利籍议员乔鲍·德默特尔走上会场中央的讲台发言时，不时转身直面卡拉 斯，连连质问。他指出，在欧盟委员会公布涵盖2028年至2034年7年时间的新预算案中，欧盟还将调动 1000亿欧元支持乌克兰，若算上间接支出，整体预算的20%都可能流向乌克兰，而这笔钱意味着要压缩 其他方面预算。 "如果欧洲经济被拖垮，那又如何援助乌克兰？"他反问道。面对德默特尔的追问，卡拉斯大部分时间低 头在纸上记录，鲜 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing dissatisfaction among the Indonesian public towards the government under President Prabowo, particularly in the context of economic policies and social inequality [9][10][11] - President Prabowo aims for an 8% GDP growth while not expanding the fiscal deficit, which has led to tensions among the elite and dissatisfaction among vulnerable groups due to past corruption and inequality [10][11] - A specific policy example is the provision of free lunches for pregnant women and students, which has faced criticism for not including university students and teachers, highlighting the challenges of political support during economic downturns [11][12] Group 2 - The article draws historical parallels between current events and past political turmoil in Indonesia, specifically referencing the events of 1965 and 1998, which were also characterized by elite power struggles masked as public dissent [14][15][16] - The 1965 incident involved the military's rise to power following the assassination of army generals, while the 1998 protests were initially student-led but escalated into broader ethnic violence and political upheaval [15][16][17] - The article emphasizes that the underlying causes of these events often relate to economic downturns and the internal conflicts among Indonesia's elite, rather than solely external influences [14][15][18] Group 3 - The current political landscape in Indonesia is described as having three main factions, with President Prabowo caught between opposition forces and internal elite conflicts, particularly with former President Jokowi [19][20][21] - The article suggests that the outcome of these struggles will depend on who can control the state's security apparatus, which is crucial for maintaining order [22][23] - Potential scenarios include Prabowo consolidating power by weakening Jokowi's influence or a prolonged period of instability, but the author believes that the ultimate outcome will likely not lead to chaos due to the vested interests of powerful families in maintaining stability [23]

Group 1: Major Asset Movements - The Chinese Yuan has rapidly appreciated, leading to a significant increase in gold and silver prices. COMEX gold rose by 3.0% to $3,475.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver surged by 6.7% to $40.3 per ounce [1][40]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.1%, while the French CAC40 dropped by 3.3%. In contrast, emerging market indices showed mixed results, with Brazil's IBOVESPA rising by 2.5% [1][2]. - The WTI crude oil price increased by 0.5% to $64.0 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 0.6% to $68.1 per barrel [34][35]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE price index for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, aligning with market expectations. The core PCE index rose by 2.9% year-on-year [79]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 23 were reported at 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000 [82]. - The cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2025 reached $1.14 trillion, with total expenditures of $5.31 trillion and tax revenues of $3.29 trillion [51]. Group 3: Political and Geopolitical Events - French Prime Minister Borne announced a trust vote on September 8 to push through a €44 billion austerity plan, causing significant market concerns and leading to a drop in the CAC 40 index [47]. - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are expected to exacerbate volatility in oil prices and disrupt global inflation control efforts [87]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Developments - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Cook, which has led to a temporary decline in U.S. stock and bond rates. Cook has filed for a temporary injunction to remain in her position [62][71]. - Fed officials, including Waller, expressed support for a potential rate cut of 25 basis points in September, with expectations for further cuts in the following months [75][76].

Group 1 - The article discusses the rapid appreciation of the Renminbi and the simultaneous surge in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold rising by 3.0% to $3475.5 per ounce and COMEX silver increasing by 6.7% to $40.3 per ounce [2][39] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.1%, while the French CAC40 dropped by 3.3%, indicating a decline in developed market indices [2][3] - Emerging market indices showed mixed results, with Brazil's IBOVESPA rising by 2.5% and India's SENSEX30 falling by 1.8% [3][11] Group 2 - The article highlights the impact of political events in France, where Prime Minister Borne's proposed €44 billion austerity plan led to a significant drop in the CAC 40 index and a spike in bond yields, raising concerns about the government's stability [47] - The U.S. Treasury auction results indicate strong demand for short-term and floating rate bonds, with the 6-month bond showing a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.36, reflecting robust investor interest [51][52] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. fiscal deficit for the year 2025 has reached $1.14 trillion, with total expenditures of $5.31 trillion and tax revenues of $3.29 trillion, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending compared to the previous year [54][56] - The article mentions that the Federal Reserve's recent actions, including the dismissal of Governor Cook by Trump, have led to fluctuations in stock and bond markets, with a potential shift in the balance of power within the Fed [63][73] Group 4 - The article reports that the U.S. PCE price index for July matched market expectations at 2.6%, while core PCE inflation was at 2.9%, indicating stable inflationary pressures [81] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 229,000, lower than market expectations, suggesting a resilient labor market [84]