美联储卡什卡利：人们因通货膨胀而感到经济困难。 来源：滚动播报 ...

上周，日本经济拉响警报，再度出现负增长。数据下滑的直接原因是美国关税政策对日本汽车等支 柱产业出口造成打击。同时，日本经济长期积累的结构性矛盾与短期政治风险交织，使得高市早苗政府 试图通过大规模财政刺激"破局"的举措显得力不从心。 11月17日，日本内阁府公布的初步统计数据显示，今年三季度，日本实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年 率计算下降1.8%，自2024年一季度以来再次出现负增长，直接诱因是外需急剧收缩。数据显示，外需 对三季度日本经济增长的贡献为－0.2个百分点。 今年以来，美国对日本输美商品加征关税，尤其是将汽车关税从2.5%提升至15%，令日本相关产业 遭遇重创，特别是汽车产业链上下游的订单萎缩和经济衰退形成恶性循环。 一方面，日本政府债务规模已占GDP约263%，继续扩大支出将推高长期利率，加剧政府偿债压 力，挤压民生与创新投入。另一方面，有关政策也存在多处自相矛盾。例如，为应对通胀提出的汽油税 减免属于财政扩张措施，可能进一步推升物价。此外，高市早苗政府将资源分散于10多个产业，被指缺 乏优先级，沦为"跟随式战略"，难以引领产业突破。在货币政策上，经济萎缩与通胀并存制约了日本央 行加息空间，而高市 ...

Despite tariffs, stick to inflation, and the lack of key data, the outlook for spending remains bullish, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute. Here with us now at Post9 is chief economist of the Mastercard Economics Institute, Michelle Meyer. It's good to have you back.Welcome. >> Thank you. >> So, what do you guys expect. >> Well, exactly what you said.I mean, the consumer is still very much engaged despite all of these different headlines. They're trying to navigate relative price differentials ...

Let's get to Kevin Green who joins me now for a closer look at what's on the docket this week. And of course, we're going to be seeing a lot of data hitting the tape. We've got some PCE, we've got the PPI, we're going to get a little bit more of an information updates on the broader inflation picture, but of course coming amid a holiday shortened week.KG, what are you going to be looking out for. >> Yeah, on the economic calendar, really tomorrow is going to be the big headline day, I think, for the week. Y ...

【导读】以色列央行降息25个基点，最新利率为4.25% 刚刚，又有海外央行降息！ 11月24日，以色列央行官网显示，该行货币委员会于当日决定将利率降至4.25%，降息25个基点。此次降息为2024年1月以来以色列首次降息，货币政策 转向宽松。 以色列央行强调，其货币政策将聚焦于价格稳定、支持经济活动和维护市场稳定三大目标，未来利率路径将根据通胀、经济活动和地缘政治不确定性和财 政发展来驱动。 货币委员会提到，以色列年度通胀率有所放缓，10月通胀率稳定在2.5%；预测年底通胀将有所上升，随后回落并在目标区间中点附近趋于稳定。 此外，劳动力市场依然紧张。职位空缺与失业人数的比例依然很高，工资增长的速度也在持续提升。10月房价连续第七个月下跌，购房交易数量的下降趋 势持续。以色列股市指数上涨，且相较于海外指数明显呈正向。以色列的风险溢价在审查期间下降，略高于战前水平。政府债券利差持续下降。 自上一次利率决定以来，新谢克尔（以色列货币）兑美元升值1.3%，兑欧元上涨2.9%，以名义有效汇率计上涨2.2%。 以色列央行此次降息，符合市场预期。据路透此前调查，14位经济学家中有13位预计以色列央行将利率下调25个基点至4 ...

美国财长贝森特近日公开驳斥了经济衰退论，对未来前景展现出强烈信心，描绘出一幅稳健增长的经济蓝图。 在近日播出的一档全国性新闻访谈节目中，美国财政部长贝森特面对主持人关于经济是否会陷入衰退的尖锐提问，给出了明确而坚定的回应。 他直言不讳地驳斥了这种担忧，并表示对明年的经济形势感到"非常乐观"。贝森特强调，当前已经为未来实现强劲且无通胀的经济增长奠定了坚实基础。 贝森特将他的乐观预测很大程度上归功于今年七月通过的一项重大法案。这项在政府主导下推出的法案包含了一系列刺激措施，例如大幅减税和为汽车贷款 利息收入提供税收抵免等。 在谈及备受关注的通货膨胀和关税问题时，贝森特也进行了积极解读。他指出，近期物价上涨的主要推手来自于服务业，例如劳动力成本的攀升。 根据他的分析，进口商品层面的通胀水平几乎保持平稳，因此他认为关税并非导致通胀的主因。 针对近期取消包括咖啡、茶和牛肉在内的200多种食品关税的决定，贝森特解释说，这是与拉美国家经过数月贸易谈判后取得的成果，旨在促进贸易关系， 而非迫于通胀压力而做出的政策退缩。 财长特别指出，得益于该法案，工薪家庭将在明年第一季度获得大量退税。他预计，这将会直接增加美国家庭的实际收入 ...

贝森特承认经济中部分领域显现困境迹象，包括住房和对利率敏感的行业。他指出服务业经济助推了通 货膨胀，但声称较低的能源价格将很快有助于推动物价下降。 美国财政部长斯科特.贝森特上周日表示，美国在2026年不存在陷入衰退的风险，并声称美国人将很快 受益于特朗普政府在贸易和税收方面的经济政策。贝森特在接受采访时表示："我对2026年感到非常、 非常乐观。我们已经为强劲且非通胀性的经济增长奠定了基础。" 贝森特称，共和党大规模支出方案《大美丽法案》的部分条款仍在陆续生效，其经济效应尚未完全显 现。这项新法律将特朗普2017年的减税政策永久化，同时为老年人提供抵消社会保障税的"补贴"，并提 高州和地方税的抵扣额度。该计划还包括针对小费收入、加班费和汽车贷款的税收减免。 贝森特补充说，医疗保健成本也将变得更加可负担。这位财政部长表示，特朗普政府本周将就此议题发 布更多消息。目前，由于国会围绕《平价医疗法案》市场增强补贴延期的僵局，预计将推高数百万人的 医疗成本。 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文.哈西特上周日同样表示，由于政府停摆，第四季度的经济数据可能显现 疲软。这次在华盛顿持续43天的僵局是美国历史上最长的一次。 民调显示 ...

If there’s one thing that consumers are familiar with, it’s inflation. In recent years, higher prices have dominated financial headlines, thanks in large part to the spike in inflation following the coronavirus pandemic. Read More: I Asked AI To Make Me As Much Money As Possible: Here’s What Happened, According To Codie Sanchez Discover Next: 6 Things You Must Do When Your Savings Reach $50,000 However, in the modern era, it’s typical for prices to rise in the 2% to 4% range on an annual basis. Over time, ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant divide among its officials regarding the potential for a rate cut in December, with one faction advocating for a cut to support a weakening job market, while another faction emphasizes the need to address persistent inflation above the 2% target [1][6][11]. Market Reactions - Investor sentiment is fluctuating due to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's decision, with expectations for a December rate cut swinging dramatically based on new data and Fed comments [3][6][7]. - The probability of a rate cut dropped to 39% following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell but later surged to over 70% after dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams [7][8]. Economic Indicators - The September jobs report revealed 119,000 jobs added, but the unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, leading to differing interpretations among Fed officials [4][10]. - Fed officials are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including a delayed retail sales report, which is expected to provide further insights into consumer spending [13]. Diverging Perspectives - Dovish officials, like John Williams, argue for a rate cut to support maximum employment, acknowledging that inflation is currently around 3% and forecasting a return to 2% by 2027 [8][9]. - Conversely, hawkish officials express concerns about inflation risks, with some suggesting that lowering rates could exacerbate inflationary pressures and encourage risk-taking in financial markets [11][12]. Future Outlook - The Fed's decision in December will significantly impact borrowing costs, market sentiment, and the economic outlook for growth and inflation in 2026 [3][6]. - Analysts predict a "dovish hold" in December, meaning rates may remain unchanged but with indications of potential cuts in the future [14].

The US federal government will not publish official data on inflation for October, depriving policymakers at the Federal Reserve of key information as they consider whether to cut interest rates.The Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the release of the closely watched consumer price index (CPI) for October, citing the government shutdown – the longest in history, before it ended earlier this month – and stating it could not “retroactively collect” the data required for the report.The decision, announced on ...