U.S. stocks stumbled as oil prices jumped on the first trading day since the United States and Israel attacked Iran. On Feb. 28, the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran in a campaign that killed the nation's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and dozens of top officials and hit more than 1,000 targets inside the country, President Donald Trump said. Iran has retaliated with strikes against U.S. military bases, Israel and other nations in the Middle East. News of the strikes almost immediately pushe ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations over time, particularly influenced by economic policies, inflation, and global events [1][10] Historical Gold Prices - In 1900, the price of gold was $19 per ounce, allowing an investment of $1 million to purchase approximately 52,743 ounces, which would be worth about $273.4 million in 2026 [3][10] - By 1980, the price surged to $615 per ounce, drastically reducing the number of ounces purchasable with $1 million to 1,626, valued at $8.4 million today [3][17] - As of 2026, the projected price of gold is $5,185 per ounce, allowing for the purchase of 192.8 ounces with $1 million [3][16] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Inflation is a primary driver for gold prices, with historical spikes occurring during periods of high inflation, such as the late 1970s when inflation rates were in double digits [5][6] - Concerns regarding federal debt and government financial stability lead investors to seek gold as a safe haven [7] - Consumer demand for gold, including jewelry and investment products, has increased, with retailers making gold more accessible to the public [8][9] Recent Trends and Market Context - From 2016 to 2026, gold prices are expected to rise from $1,250 to $5,185 per ounce, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties [10][16] - The 2020s have seen significant market disruptions, further driving interest in gold as a stable investment [16] - Comparatively, investments in gold have underperformed against the stock market, with a $1 million investment in the S&P 500 in 1980 now worth $189 million, while the same amount in gold would be worth $8.4 million [17]

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2026 年第 9 期） 2026 年 3 月 2 日 民银国际研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 相关报告： 主要大类资产走势： | | 2026-02-27 | 周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美国国债收益率10Y | 3.97 | -11.0 bp | | 美国国债收益率2Y | 3.38 | -10.0 bp | | 日本国债收益率10Y | 2.17 | 4.3 bp | | 日本国债收益率2Y | 1.25 | -1.4 bp | | 德国国债收益率10Y | 2.69 | -5.0 bp | | 德国国债收益率2Y | 2.03 | -2.0 bp | | 标普500指数 | 6878.88 | -0.44 % | | 纳斯达克指数 | 22668.21 | -0.95 % | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 48977.92 | -1.31 % | | 日经225指数 | 58850.27 | 3.56 % | | 伦敦富时100指数 | 10910.55 | 2. ...

宏观观点 美国和以色列联合袭击伊朗对 中美宏观经济的影响 事件：2 月 28 日，美国和以色列宣布联合袭击伊朗（下称"美以袭 击"）。3 月 1 日凌晨，特朗普在其社交媒体上宣布，伊朗最高领袖哈 梅内伊已经死亡。而后伊朗方亦确认了此消息，并宣布对美方实施报 复和关闭霍尔木兹海峡。多哈、迪拜等多地的美军基地遭导弹袭击。 我们在 2 月初发布美国月度宏观洞察报告的时候就指出，为了提升 中期选举支持率，特朗普或将继续制造争端，短期内还需特别留意伊 朗局势带来的地缘政治风险。我们的担忧在不到一个月的时间内变成 现实。除了袭击伊朗之外，我们认为接下来还需警惕特朗普在中期选 举前继续在海外问题上制造争端的风险。 石油价格影响：美以袭击已经显著拉高原油价格。虽然伊朗原油产量 仅占全球产量 4.5%，但是霍尔木兹海峡承载着全球约 30%的海运石 油贸易量。直至 3 月 2 日早晨，布伦特油价已经上升了 13%到 82 美 元/桶。按照当前局势来看，油价恐会继续上涨。若局势演变为长期 战争，霍尔木兹海峡遭伊朗长期封锁，那么油价可能上升至 90-100 美 元、甚至 120 美元的高位。 宏观影响：对中国而言，美以袭击对中国整体 ...

周五，三大指数收跌，本周均录得跌幅。本周道指下跌1.31%，纳指下跌0.95%，标普500指数下跌 0.44%。美国劳工统计局报告称，1月份美国批发价格指数以快于预期的速度上涨，这给通胀正在缓解 的希望泼了冷水。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心生产者价格指数(PPI)经季节性调整后环比 上涨0.8%，高于12月份0.6%的涨幅，也远超道琼斯普遍预测的0.3%的涨幅。 周五是二月份最后一个交易日，本月三大指数涨跌不一，道指小幅上涨0.17%，为连续第10个月录得涨 幅。纳指下跌3.38%，标普500指数下跌0.87%。 【美股】截至收盘，道琼斯指数收盘下跌521.28点，跌幅1.05%，报48977.92点；标普500指数下跌29.98 点，跌幅0.43%，报6878.88点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌210.17点，跌幅0.92%，报22668.21点。英伟达 (NVDA.US)延续昨日跌势，收盘跌4.16%，CoreWeave(CRWV.US)收跌18.51%，戴尔科技(DELL.US)收 涨21.93%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨12.44点，涨幅0.05%，报25290.14点；英国富时100指数涨6 ...

The stock market, including the Dow Jones, fell Friday as an inflation reading came in hot. President Trump issued an Iran threat. ...

受美国股市下跌影响，美元指数周五在月末交易中回落至基本持平水平。美元抹去了在美国1月生产者 价格指数升幅超预期后的涨幅。 彭博美元即期指数在抹去不足0.2%的涨幅后接近持平，该指数2月基本持平。 美国1月PPI环比上涨0.5%，高于0.3%的预期；核心指标上涨0.8%，也高于0.3%的预期。 该报告"可能无助于提振偏弱的股市风险偏好情绪，"丰业银行首席外汇策略师Shaun Osborne表示。"过 去几个月核心价格指标明显走高的趋势越来越难以忽视"。 国际原子能机构核查人员称伊朗在早前遭到轰炸的铀浓缩设施开展持续且无法解释的活动，这可能使与 美国围绕德黑兰核计划的谈判变得更加复杂。 基准10年期美国国债收益率下跌4个基点至3.96%，在PPI数据公布后仍扩大跌势；美国主要股指扩大跌 幅。 加元在加拿大逊于预期的经济数据公布后仍延续涨势。数据显示加拿大第四季度GDP折年率下降 0.6%。 美元/加元下跌0.4%至1.3629，短期上行阻力位在50日移动均线1.3714。 欧元/美元上涨0.2%至1.1819，本周上涨0.3%，但2月下跌0.3%。 法国通胀增速超出预期，西班牙通胀也意外加速，这支持欧洲央行关于无 ...

Economic Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for January increased by 0.5%, matching the previous month but higher than expected, with a year-over-year rate of 2.9%, which is a tenth lower than last month but a tenth higher than consensus expectations [2][3] - The core PPI rose by 0.8% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year, which is a tenth lower than last month, indicating persistent inflation concerns [2][3] - Excluding food and energy, trade services increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, slightly above expectations, suggesting inflation is not decreasing significantly [3] Geopolitical Tensions - Tensions between the US and Iran are escalating, as indicated by crude oil prices rising by 3.7% to $67, which is expected to impact future inflation data [6][7] - The US Ambassador to Israel advised embassy staff to leave, highlighting increasing tensions in the region [7] Corporate News - OpenAI secured $110 billion in funding, more than doubling its previous funding round, with Amazon contributing $50 billion and SoftBank $30 billion, raising OpenAI's pre-money valuation to $730 billion [9][10] - This investment is categorized as capital expenditure (capex) for Amazon, which raises concerns about its overall capex spending strategy [10] Regulatory and Ethical Discussions - Enthropic declined a request from the Department of Defense to use its AI for surveillance on Americans, raising ethical questions about the use of AI in national security [12][13] - The discussion centers around the balance between national security and the ethical limitations on AI applications, particularly in surveillance and military contexts [13][14]

Core Insights - Wholesale prices increased at a faster-than-expected rate in January, indicating that inflation is not easing as hoped [1][2] - The core producer price index (PPI), excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, surpassing the December increase of 0.6% and the Dow Jones estimate of 0.3% [1] - On an all-items basis, the headline PPI rose by 0.5%, exceeding the forecast of 0.3% and showing a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [2] Yearly Trends - For the full year, core wholesale prices accelerated by 3.6%, while the headline index recorded a 2.9% gain [2] - Both core and headline PPI figures are significantly above the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [2]

Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The US economy faces stagflation risks, with Q4 2025 GDP growth below expectations due to government shutdown impacts[13] - Non-farm employment data showed unexpected rebound, but the unemployment rate remains a concern as it may adjust after March[14] - The Eurozone is experiencing weak recovery, with February manufacturing PMI entering expansion territory for the first time since mid-2025[21] Group 2: Domestic Economic Performance - During the Spring Festival, national consumption-related industries saw a daily average sales increase of 13.7% compared to last year[30] - Smart products like smart glasses and intelligent robots saw sales growth of 47.3% and 32.7% respectively during the holiday[30] - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to be strong, with key product operating rates exceeding January averages[38] Group 3: Domestic Policy Environment - The central bank's monetary policy remains cautious, focusing on structural tools to support key sectors while maintaining liquidity stability[5] - Fiscal policy is actively supporting economic stability, with over 1.5 trillion yuan in new local special bonds issued by February 26, 2026[46] - The government is expected to prioritize spending on technology innovation and social welfare in the first quarter[46] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Geopolitical risks and unexpected economic changes pose significant threats to domestic economic stability[6] - Inflation concerns are rising, with the Fed's rate cut window likely closed in the first half of 2026, impacting future monetary policy decisions[15]