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高盛:超配中国A股 防御性板块成 “安全垫”
智通财经网· 2025-05-11 23:20
Group 1 - The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index (MXAPJ) has fully recovered from its early-year decline and is approaching year-to-date highs, driven by increased trade agreement news, easing pressure indicators, a weaker dollar, and signs of tentative risk-taking in portfolio flows [1][4][7] - Goldman Sachs has updated its earnings growth forecasts for the Asia-Pacific region, projecting 7% and 8% growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively, compared to market expectations of 10% and 11% [1][13] - The market appears overly optimistic, with April's performance exceeding macro model predictions, and regional valuations have returned to moderate levels, aligning with Goldman Sachs' top-down P/E model estimates [1][16] Group 2 - Several factors explain the stock market rebound, including rising expectations for trade agreements, easing pressure indicators, a weaker dollar, and renewed foreign investment flows into emerging Asian markets [7][11] - Goldman Sachs maintains a preference for Chinese mainland and defensive sector allocations, overweighting China (favoring A-shares) and Japan while underweighting Australia and Taiwan [20][26] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' earnings outlook remains bleak, with downward risks highlighted by trade disruptions and weak survey data indicating potential softening in U.S. and global demand [13][14] - The market's pricing seems overly optimistic, especially given the generally weak earnings growth backdrop, with various indicators showing that the region's expected P/E ratios have returned to average levels [16][17] Group 4 - Short-term consolidation is expected, with a projected -4% return over the next three months and a +4% return over the next twelve months, based on updated earnings expectations and a target P/E of 13.3x [17][30] - Scenario analysis indicates a potential upside of 6 percentage points and a downside risk of 23 percentage points compared to Goldman Sachs' baseline return forecast [20][22] Group 5 - Key themes include resilience in challenging macro environments, support from Chinese policies, sectors benefiting from artificial intelligence, and shareholder returns [31][32] - Stocks that may benefit from a weaker dollar have been identified, including companies in the travel, construction, and consumer goods sectors [36][37]