Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent increase in US soybean export expectations boosts the US market, but the decline in Brazilian discounts partially offsets the upward impact on the US market. The domestic market performs weaker than the overseas market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent selling pressure of Brazilian discounts [12]. - Recently, the domestic soybean crushing profit has significantly deteriorated. It is recommended to focus on the low - level long - position opportunity at 12609 [12]. - The soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills and downstream feed enterprises remain at a high level. There are expectations of imported soybean auctions after the holiday. The domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be abundant from February to March, and the soybean meal basis is expected to face pressure [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot and Futures Price Data - On February 10, the Dalian futures price of the main soybean meal contract was 446 with a decrease of 5; the Rizhao price was 316 with a decrease of 5; the Tianjin price was 426 with a decrease of 5. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was 326 with a decrease of 25, in Dongguan was 326 with a decrease of 5, in Zhanjiang was 346 with a decrease of 5, and in Fangcheng was 366 with a decrease of 5. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 168 with a decrease of 6 [5]. - The M3 - 5 spread was 262 with an increase of 17, and the RM5 - 9 spread was - 48. The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 600 [5]. International and Domestic Data - The national major oil mills' soybean crushing volume,开机率 (start - up rate), and downstream demand data are presented in time - series charts from 2020 - 2026, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. The charts cover time periods from 03/04 to 12/08 across multiple years [7][8][9]. - The national major oil mills' soybean inventory, Chinese port soybean inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory data are also presented in time - series charts from 2020 - 2026, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text [18][19]. Holiday Risk Focus Points - In late February, the ISDA Agricultural Outlook Forum is expected to announce the estimated planting areas of US soybeans and corn for the 2026/27 season. Attention should be paid to the change in the soybean - corn price ratio during the holiday and its guidance on US soybean planting areas [11]. - On the night of February 4, Trump stated on social media that China would increase its US soybean purchases by 800,000 tons to 2 million tons this market year. After the news was released, US soybeans rose. Recently, there have been inquiries from China for US soybeans. Attention should be paid to changes in China - US trade policies and news about China's US soybean purchases during the holiday [11]. - As of February 7, the Brazilian soybean harvesting rate was 17.4% (last week 11.2%, last year's same period 14.8%, five - year average 18.7%), and the harvesting progress was still fast. The USDA estimates the Brazilian soybean production this market year to be 178 million tons. Attention should be paid to changes in harvesting weather during the holiday and the reflection of Brazilian discounts on selling pressure [11]. - The Argentine soybean sowing is basically completed. Recently, due to dry weather, the crop's good - quality rate has declined. As of February 4, the proportion of good - rated soybean crops was 40% (last week 47%, last year's same period 20%), normal was 35% (last week 37%, last year's same period 51%), and fair or poor was 25% (last week 16%, last year's same period 29%). Short - term weather forecasts indicate a recovery of rainfall, and the possibility of a large - scale production reduction is small. Attention should be paid to changes in the production - area weather during the holiday [11]. - Attention should be paid to news of domestic imported soybean auctions during and after the holiday [11]. - Attention should be paid to the trends of the RMB exchange rate and the Brazilian real exchange rate [11].