日本央行一边按兵不动，一边抛售ETF，这场暗藏锋芒的"鹰派突围"，正悄悄搅乱美联储的降息算盘。 2025年9月19日，日本央行在维持利率不变的同时，悄悄放出一个重磅信号——要开始减持手里的ETF。 这一招看似"按兵不动"，实则暗藏"鹰意"，直接影响到了大洋彼岸的美联储，让原本看似顺利的降息进程多了许多不确定。 2025年9月19日，日本央行宣布将基准利率维持在0.5%不变，这是市场普遍预期中的操作。 但紧接着的一则声明却让市场瞬间紧张了起来——日本央行计划每年减持约3300亿日元的ETF（交易型指数基金）和50亿日元的房地 产投资信托基金。 因为，就在日本央行宣布这一决策的前一天（2025年9月18日），美联储刚刚宣布下调联邦基金利率目标区间至4.00%-4.25%，幅度为 25个基点。 当日本央行释放鹰派信号、日元升值后，美元也会被动升值，这对美国可不是什么好消息。 美元升值会削弱美国出口竞争力，影响制造业和就业市场。偏偏当前的美国，正面临就业数据疲软、消费放缓等内部压力。 美联储原本想通过稳步降息来托住经济，现在却可能因为外部汇率压力而不得不更加谨慎。 此外，美联储内部的意见也并不一致。亚特兰大联储主席博 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple's gross margin guidance for Q3 FY2025 is projected to decline to 45.5-46.5%, down from 47.1% in the previous quarter, primarily due to increased tariff costs [1][2] Group 1: Gross Margin and Tariff Impact - The gross margin for Q3 is expected to include $900 million in tariff-related costs, with a more significant challenge anticipated in Q4, where an additional $1 billion in tariffs could push the overall gross margin down to 45% [2][3] - Bank of America (BofA) forecasts that Q4 will be the low point for gross margins, with a recovery expected in subsequent quarters due to a better product mix and higher average selling prices (ASP) from new product launches [3] Group 2: Revenue and Earnings Expectations - For Q3, BofA estimates Apple's revenue will reach $90.234 billion, slightly above Wall Street's expectation of $89.333 billion, with an EPS forecast of $1.45 compared to Wall Street's $1.43 [4] - Q4 revenue is projected at $99.543 billion, exceeding Wall Street's estimate of $98 billion, with an EPS forecast of $1.66, slightly below Wall Street's $1.67 [4] Group 3: New Product Launches - Apple is banking on the upcoming launch of the ultra-thin iPhone ("iPhone Air") in Fall 2025 to boost ASP and mitigate margin pressures, with a price point $100 higher than the previous Plus model [5][8] - BofA has raised its iPhone revenue expectations for FY2025 from $203.607 billion to $204.507 billion, and for FY2026 from $214.837 billion to $219.987 billion, reflecting the anticipated impact of the new model [8] Group 4: Services Business Outlook - The services segment is expected to maintain low double-digit growth, with Q3 and Q4 projected to grow by 12% year-over-year, driven by revenue from licensing, iCloud, and the App Store [10] - However, the services business faces regulatory challenges, including potential impacts from antitrust investigations and new regulations in the EU, which could affect revenue from the App Store [13] Group 5: Currency Exchange Benefits - A weaker dollar against major currencies is expected to provide a revenue boost, with BofA estimating a 1.31% and 1.38% increase in revenue for Q3 and Q4, respectively, translating to $1.183 billion and $1.374 billion [15] - BofA maintains a target price of $235 for Apple, based on a 29x multiple of the expected EPS for FY2026, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects [15]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to the requested analysis

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《上交 AI 智能体表现亮眼， AlphaEvolve 生成代码反超人类——AI 动态汇总 20250707》 - 2025.07.08 《低估值高盈利，基本面表现占优— —中邮因子周报 20250706》 - 2025.07.07 《ETF 流入金融与 TMT，连板高度与涨 停家数限制下活跃资金处观望态势— —行业轮动周报 20250706》 - 2025.07.07 《"量化新规"或将平稳落地，双均线 法再现买点——微盘股指数周报 20250706》 - 2025.07.07 《谷歌推出 Gemini Robotics On- Device 大模型，快手开源 keye-VL 多 模态模型——AI 动态汇总 20250630》 - 2025.07.02 《基于宏观经济状态划分的 BL 模型与 ETF 实践》 - 2025.07.01 《基于大模型外部评价体系框架介 绍》 - 2025.06.30 《beta 风格显著，高波占优——中邮 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Taiwan has established a task force to assist businesses in coping with exchange rate fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The task force aims to provide support and resources to companies affected by currency volatility [1] - This initiative reflects the government's proactive approach to stabilize the economy amid global financial uncertainties [1]

The provided content does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to the requested financial engineering analysis. The documents primarily discuss the holdings, sector allocations, and net inflows/outflows of the "陆股通" (Northbound Stock Connect) for Q1 2025, along with some general market observations. There are no mentions of quantitative models, factor construction, or backtesting results in the provided text.

Core Insights - The 2025 Q1 Bloomberg China Bond Underwriting Rankings reveal significant trends in the bond market, highlighting the performance of various banks and securities firms in the issuance of bonds [2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The total issuance of Panda bonds in 2024 exceeded 208.25 billion RMB, while in Q1 2025, the issuance by foreign institutions in the domestic market reached 41.6 billion RMB, showing a decrease of 38.28% compared to the same period last year [4]. - The overall issuance of domestic credit bonds in Q1 2025 was approximately 3.77 trillion RMB, reflecting a decline of about 12.61% year-on-year [6]. - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit increased to approximately 8.35 trillion RMB in Q1 2025, up 11.97% from the previous year [10]. Group 2: Rankings and Performance - In the Bloomberg Q1 2025 China Bond Rankings, the top three positions were held by Bank of China (5.918%), CITIC Bank (5.675%), and Industrial Bank (5.297%) [7]. - For corporate bonds, CITIC Securities (13.450%), CITIC Jiantou (9.988%), and former Guotai Junan Securities (8.053%) maintained their top three positions [7]. - In the offshore RMB bond rankings (excluding certificates of deposit), the top three were held by Amundi (12.248%), HSBC (7.117%), and Standard Chartered Bank (5.021%) [7]. Group 3: Local Government Bonds - The issuance of local government bonds in Q1 2025 was approximately 2.66 trillion RMB, a significant increase of about 78.26% year-on-year [12]. - The issuance included about 0.38 trillion RMB in general bonds and approximately 2.28 trillion RMB in special bonds, with debt resolution remaining a key focus [12]. Group 4: Offshore Bond Market - The issuance of offshore bonds (excluding certificates of deposit) by Chinese enterprises exceeded 401.4 billion RMB in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 35.36% [16]. - The issuance of "Kung Fu Bonds" surpassed 30 billion USD (approximately 219.2 billion RMB), showing a significant increase of over 122.20% compared to the previous year [16].