2025.11.17-11.21 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 Contents 中线行情分析 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第45周油厂大豆实际压榨量180.57万吨，开机率为 49.67%，豆粕库存99.86万吨。国内大豆到港量维持高位，压榨量虽短期 回落但仍处于相对充裕水平，豆粕整体供应宽松格局未改。下游饲料企 业采购谨慎，养殖利润持续不佳抑制消费积极性，且最新美农供需报告 部分利多预期已提前消化。然而，进口成本抬升及远月备货情绪为市场 提供底部支撑。综合来看，中线趋势预计豆粕期价处于宽幅震荡阶段。 2 关注中美贸易政策变化，南美天气，养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于上行通道,资金方面强烈偏空。M2601 短期内或处于震荡调整阶段，预计运行区间：2950-3150。 本周策略建议 | < 豆粕(m) v | | --- | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资金 : | | 多空流向: -71. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the upside space is limited, with resistance at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. Abroad, the US government shutdown continues, and the market focuses on the return of US soybean orders due to the implementation of China - US policy agreements. Domestically, the supply of near - month soybeans and soybean meal is expected to be relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure will weaken as imports decline. The cost of imports supports the price of soybean meal. [3] - For rapeseed meal, the upside space is limited, with resistance at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract. Globally, the rapeseed supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 year is loose, suppressing the price of rapeseed. In China, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and the downstream aquaculture is in the off - season. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is low, which is not conducive to the substitution of rapeseed meal. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Foreign Supply and Demand 3.1.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The USDA report is expected to show a potential downward adjustment in US soybean yield in the 2025/26 year, which may reduce the ending inventory. The price of US soybeans has been oscillating at a high level, ranging from 1100 - 1160 cents per bushel. The export demand and domestic crushing demand need to be further observed. The current cost of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, and the upward pressure on prices remains. [16][17] 3.1.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazilian soybean sowing is more than half - completed, and Argentine sowing has started. The sowing progress in Brazil is behind last year due to local precipitation, but it is expected to continue to advance. The Chinese procurement supports the Brazilian soybean premium to oscillate. The market will gradually focus on the weather in South America in the next two months. [26][27] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 year, the global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons, with an increase of 6.11%. The consumption demand increases by 2.06%. The international rapeseed trade volume is expected to decline due to trade policies. The global rapeseed inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio continue to increase. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China - Canada trade policies. [53] 3.2 CFTC Positions - The report provides data on CBOT soybean and soybean meal non - commercial long and short positions, total positions, and non - commercial net long positions and their proportions, which can reflect the market sentiment and expectations of investors. [42][44][46] 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Domestic Import Situation - In October 2025, China imported 3.932 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 3.387 million tons from September. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 95.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. The supply of soybean meal in the near - term is loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. However, the increase in import costs supports the price of soybean meal. [64] 3.3.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing - Operating Rate - As of the week of November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.8057 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected to increase to 2.1579 million tons and 59.36% respectively in the 46th week. The rapeseed pressing in coastal areas has basically stagnated. [86] 3.3.3 Import Cost and Pressing Profit - The import cost of soybeans has increased, mainly due to the significant increase in CBOT soybean prices. The import cost of rapeseed from Canada and the pressing profit are also provided in the report. [93][100] 3.3.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills increased by 511,600 tons to 7.6195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.97%. The soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts increased. The rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory continued to decline. [101] 3.3.5 Downstream Demand - As of November 13, the total trading volume of soybean meal in China was 606,340 tons, a week - on - week increase. The trading volume in the spot and forward - basis markets has improved. The total提货 volume of soybean meal decreased slightly. The downstream aquaculture is in the off - season, and the livestock and poultry breeding profit situation is also provided in the report. [119] 3.3.6 Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, including the basis of different contracts and regions, as well as the spread between different contracts. [13][115]

【粕类周报20251114】报告数据预期偏利多，内外盘走势震荡偏 H 日期: 2025-11-14 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【粕类周报20251114】报告数据预期偏利多，内外盘走势震荡偏强 | 核心观点 2025-11-14 | 核心观点 | 2025-11-14 | | --- | --- | --- | | ▼ 观点： 豆粕 上方空间有限，在3200价位存在压力 ● 合约: m2601 | ♥ 观点： 菜籽粕 上方空间有限，在2500价位存在压力 * 合约: RM601 | | | # 逻辑： 国外方面，美政府停摆持续，基本面缺乏报告等数据指引，市场关注仍将集中在中美政策协议 | ® 逻辑: 国外方面,2025/26年度全球荣籽供需格局宽松,压制菜籽价格重心,关注后续国际贸易政策变动 | | | 落地帶来的美豆订单回归。短期关注美豆1100美分/蒲附近压力。若后续美豆销售大幅改善预计将支撑价格 | 指引。国内方面，加莱籽反倾销初裁使其进口面临较高保证金要求，叠加加菜粕关税限制，菜粕后续供应预期 | | | 讲一步靠近新作相植成本区间 | 持续收紧。但下游水产寿殖逐步进入浴季，且豆菜箱加货价差低 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Futures Varieties Weekly Report: Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil" [2] - Report Date: November 10 - 14, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: The medium - term trend of soybean meal futures is in a wide - range oscillation phase. Although the optimistic Sino - US trade sentiment boosts the expected import cost, high inventory and weak demand limit the price increase space. In the short - term, the overall trend of soybean meal futures price is in an upward channel, but the capital situation has shifted from strongly bullish to strongly bearish [6][9][10]. - **Soybean Oil**: The medium - term trend of soybean oil futures is also in a wide - range oscillation phase. High oil factory inventory and weak downstream demand suppress the price, while the easing Sino - US trade relationship drives up the cost of imported soybeans, providing bottom support. In the short - term, the overall trend of soybean oil futures price is in a sideways phase, and the capital situation has shifted from relatively bullish to relatively bearish [28][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 44th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2534 million tons, the startup rate was 61.99%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons. High inventory and weak demand limit price increases, while Sino - US trade sentiment affects import costs [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade policies, South American weather, and aquaculture demand [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures price was in an upward channel, and the capital was strongly bullish. The M2601 contract was expected to continue the oscillating and strengthening pattern in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3100 [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures price is in an upward channel, but the capital is strongly bearish. The M2601 contract may be in an oscillating adjustment phase in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3150 [10]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [17][20][23] Soybean Oil 3.2.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 44th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 42,810 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2158 million tons. High inventory and weak demand suppress prices, while the cost of imported soybeans provides support [28]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, US biodiesel progress, and South American weather [28]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures price was in a sideways phase, and the capital was relatively bullish. The Y2601 contract was expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short - term [31]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures price is in a sideways phase, and the capital is relatively bearish. The Y2601 contract will maintain the range - bound pattern in the short - term [31]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly startup rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [41][47][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side will face selling and hedging pressure as new cotton is expected to be in large supply in November. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side is entering a relatively off - season after the peak season, with average recent orders. Considering these factors, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to fluctuate, with limited upside and downside potential. Additionally, Sino - US trade negotiations and the expiration of the Sino - US tariff agreement in November may have a significant impact on the market [5]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a sideways pattern, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger sideways movement. Existing long positions should take profits [6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 10, 5, and 5 respectively. Their trading volumes decreased by 86089, 45399, and 14 respectively, and open interest changed by - 1553, + 4162, and - 12 respectively. For棉纱 futures, the closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts increased by 50, 40, and 145 respectively. Their trading volumes changed by + 125, + 9, and - 2 respectively, and open interest changed by + 19, + 1, and - 1 respectively [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 21 to 14820 yuan/ton, and the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 20520 yuan/ton. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FCY IndexC33S, etc., also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spread**: Cotton and棉纱 cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had different degrees of change. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 10 with a decrease of 5, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6265 with an increase of 60 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 96.1%, with different progress in southern, northern, and eastern Xinjiang. The out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index on November 6, 2025, remained unchanged at 0.1827 yuan/ton·km, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. As of October 31, 1006 cotton processing enterprises across the country had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 178.4 million tons [4]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply side has new cotton coming onto the market in large quantities, with a large increase in production this year but a possible smaller increase than expected. The demand side is in a relatively off - season, and previous negative factors have been reflected in the price. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Sino - US trade policies need attention [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single - sided**: It is expected that US cotton will mostly fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Existing long positions should take profits [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Affected by the good news of Sino - US tariff reduction, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, but the overall trading volume did not change much. Different varieties of cotton yarn showed different trends, with the overall inventory increasing. The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth had low production and sales, and enterprises generally reported a lack of large orders [8]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: On the previous day, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 7.2333, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 7.7%, 10.5%, and 15.1% respectively [10]. - **Volume Ratio**: The previous day, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7324, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.5889. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [11]. - **Option Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply side has a large number of new cotton flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production in the new year but the increase may be less than expected; the demand side has average recent orders, and previous negative factors have been reflected in the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate, with relatively limited upward and downward space. Sino-US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [5] - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a range-bound pattern, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger range-bound trend. Previous long positions should take profits [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts increased by 80, 65, and 65 respectively; the closing price of CY01 increased by 25, CY05 decreased by 19845, and CY09 increased by 19930. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B decreased by 34 yuan/ton, Cot A increased to 77.10 cents/pound, and prices of other varieties also had different changes [2] - **Spread**: Cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had corresponding changes [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 96.1%, with different progress in different regions [4] - On November 5, 2025, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton increased by 1.33% compared with the previous period, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4] - As of November 4, 2025, 1018 cotton processing enterprises had processed and inspected 9,218,299 bales of cotton, weighing 2.0819 million tons [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's production is abundant, the expected increase may be less than previous expectations. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate [5] Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Take profits on previous long positions [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7] - **Options**: Wait and see [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although the macro - atmosphere improved last week, the actual downstream demand did not improve significantly. The actual transaction price of pure cotton yarn changed little, and the market was mainly small, urgent, and rigid - demand orders. The follow - up needs to pay attention to downstream demand and Zhengzhou cotton trends [9] - The spot market of all - cotton grey cloth remained weak, and the weaving mills' raw material procurement was mainly based on immediate needs. Downstream customers mainly placed rigid - demand orders and were cautious about the weaving mills' sales information [9] Third Part: Options - The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 7.5%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.8%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 14.7% [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased, and the trading volume of both call and put options decreased [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [8][13] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices, cotton basis for different months, spread between cotton yarn and cotton, and spread between different cotton contracts [15][18][22][23]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of approximately 800 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 15.36%, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 48.04% to around 134 million yuan [2] - The company is actively integrating its Danish subsidiary SGM, which focuses on architectural and performance lighting, to complement its existing Arden brand and expand its product matrix [3] - There are signs of recovery in orders and shipments since the third quarter, with expectations for a stable improvement in the market if US-China trade policies stabilize [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was approximately 800 million yuan, down 15.36% year-on-year [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was around 134 million yuan, a decrease of 48.04% compared to the previous year [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has completed the acquisition of SGM's assets and established subsidiaries in Denmark and the US to enhance technology and production capacity [3] - The company plans to increase R&D investment to drive innovation and improve market share despite current revenue challenges [5] Market Outlook - The company noted a resilient demand in the US market, with three key insights: cost increases from trade friction will be passed to downstream, ODM and OBM customers are less sensitive to upstream price hikes, and the end market shows greater price acceptance than expected [6] - The company will monitor the sustainability of market recovery and adjust product structures to seize opportunities [6] Investor Engagement - During a recent investor meeting, institutions expressed interest in the pace of overseas market recovery, new product development, and cost transmission mechanisms [7] - The company aims to optimize production resources and enhance service quality to achieve sustainable development [7]

Group 1: Company Overview and Financial Performance - The company is a high-tech enterprise engaged in the R&D, production, and sales of stage lighting, architectural lighting, and truss equipment [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of approximately RMB 800 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 15.36% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was approximately RMB 134 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 48.04% [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company has increased R&D investment to explore new opportunities and has integrated Danish SGM company to enhance development momentum [2] - The new headquarters has been put into use to optimize production capacity [2] Group 3: Market and Trade Environment - Orders and shipments have shown signs of recovery since the third quarter, with expectations for stabilization in US-China trade policies [4] - If trade policy factors weaken, it could lower procurement costs for downstream customers, enhancing their purchasing power [4] Group 4: Product Development and Innovation - The penetration rate of new products continues to rise, with sales revenue of new products increasing year-on-year despite overall revenue decline [5] - The company plans to continue investing in independent innovation and R&D to enhance market share [5] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The company is focused on the sustainability of recovery in the US market, with industry consensus on cost pass-through to downstream due to trade friction [6] - The company aims to adjust product structure and enhance service quality to meet future market challenges and opportunities [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 28, 2025, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were short - strong and long - weak. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds decreased by about 0.25 - 4.0bp, while the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds increased by about 1.4bp to 1.81% and 2.17% respectively. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.08%, 0.15%, 0.25%, and 0.55% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 slightly declined and fluctuated around 1.56% [3]. - Domestically, in September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size continued to rebound due to the low - base effect, with a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In the third quarter, China's GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, with a steady but slightly slower growth rate compared to the previous value. In September, industrial added value increased significantly year - on - year, social retail growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to converge and entered the contraction range [3]. - Policy - wise, the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasized that the current economic development faces a complex environment, and the pro - growth policies will continue to exert force. It aims to enhance the endogenous driving force of the economy through expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, and stabilizing investment, and requires achieving the annual economic and social development goals [3]. - Overseas, the year - on - year increase in the US CPI in September was lower than expected, and the expectation of continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year has increased. In terms of Sino - US trade policy, the new round of trade consultations between China and the US ended, releasing positive signals and alleviating market concerns about the escalation of trade frictions [3]. - Overall, with external demand facing tariff shocks, the repair of domestic demand has become a key support for stabilizing the economy. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy has increased. The weak fundamental pattern may drive the bond market to strengthen in a volatile manner. However, uncertainties such as the subsequent progress of Sino - US trade policies and the new regulations on public fund fees continue to disturb market sentiment. Coupled with the recent rebound in risk appetite, it is expected that treasury bond futures will show a narrow - range oscillation pattern in the short term. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volume**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.415, 105.895, 102.466, and 115.960 respectively, with increases of 0.25%, 0.15%, 0.08%, and 0.55%. The trading volumes of T main contract decreased by 874, while those of TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 9745, 9448, and 9625 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Multiple futures spreads showed downward trends, such as the TL2512 - 2603 spread decreased by 0.03 to 0.27, and the T12 - TL12 spread decreased by 0.32 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts all increased, with increases of 9953, 4078, 1890, and 6157 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL also increased by 708, 3538, 1778, and 3218 respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Data - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds increased, such as 220017.IB (4y) increased by 0.2651 to 106.5618 [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active treasury bonds decreased by 3.50bp, 1.25bp, 5.50bp, 3.75bp, and 5.00bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 13.08bp to 1.4308%, and the Shibor overnight rate increased by 2.70bp to 1.4690%. The silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 3.00bp to 1.5300%, while the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 1.20bp to 1.5300% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase operations was 4753 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1595 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Diplomatic and Trade**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, expressing the hope that both sides would work together to prepare for high - level exchanges. The two sides are in close communication about the possible meeting of the two heads of state. The new round of Sino - US trade consultations ended with positive signals [2][3]. - **Financial Forum**: At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that the central bank would resume open - market treasury bond trading operations. Financial regulators also made important statements on policies such as financial services, capital support, and market reform [2][3]. - **Financial Report**: The State Council's report on financial work proposed to highlight the key direction of financial services to the real economy, implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and promote a decline in the comprehensive financing cost of society [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference was held from October 27th to 30th. The US Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision (upper limit) for the period ending October 29th will be announced at 2:00 on October 30th [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests "oscillation" for single - sided trading and "wait - and - see" for arbitrage [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The market shows short - term oscillation, and attention should be paid to Sino - US policies. Before the Sino - US meeting, due to the hedging demand for policy uncertainty, short - covering led to a rebound, but the overall oscillatory trend remains unchanged. Traders should focus on the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and weather changes in South America [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply factor is rated as neutral. USDA estimates the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 marketing year at 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may be lowered. Exports depend on Sino - US policies. As of the week of October 18, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 21.7%. Although there has been dry weather in Brazilian soybean - producing areas recently, its impact is expected to be limited. In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is uncertain. Under the current Sino - Canadian trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink. The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for soybean meal is slightly bullish, while that for rapeseed meal is slightly bearish. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of live pigs, which may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good, while the downstream trading volume and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory factor for soybean meal is slightly bearish, and for rapeseed meal is slightly bullish. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have dropped to a low level. Domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is being destocked, but the inventory level is still at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is rated as neutral [5]. - **Profit**: The profit factor is slightly bullish. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybean purchases is poor, while that of Canadian rapeseed is good [5]. - **Valuation**: The valuation is rated as neutral. From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, the recent futures price of soybean meal is at a neutral valuation [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: The macro and policy factor is slightly bullish. From October 24th to 27th, China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Malaysia, and a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents is expected at the APEC Summit on October 30th [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In September, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 marketing year increased, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [32][38]. - **Soybean Production and Sales**: The US soybean sowing rate and excellent - good rate data are presented. The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined. Data on NOPA soybean crushing volume, USDA monthly US soybean crushing volume, and US soybean export sales are also provided, but this week's US soybean export sales data has not been released [47][52][65]. - **Import and Cost**: The CNF premium of soybeans and the gross profit of imported soybean futures are shown. The CFR price of Canadian rapeseed and the crushing profit of imported Canadian rapeseed are also presented, along with the US dollar - to - real exchange rate [72][75]. - **Domestic Inventory and Consumption**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, while the inventory of feed enterprises is at a low level. The inventory of imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal in China is also analyzed. The opening rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are provided. The trading volume and pick - up of soybean meal are normal and at a high level, respectively, while those of rapeseed meal are cautious. Feed monthly output data is also presented [81][102][114]. - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: The breeding profits of live pigs, broilers, and laying hens are analyzed. The price of live pigs has slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious. Data on the inventory and slaughter volume of livestock and poultry are also provided [116][120][123]