1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2026, the domestic and international cotton markets showed a significant divergence. Zhengzhou cotton reached above 15,000 yuan/ton due to rapid inventory reduction this year and the expectation of reduced planting area next year, but was constrained by the strengthening of the internal - external price difference. U.S. cotton had a slow signing progress under the influence of tariffs and competition from Brazilian cotton exports, with prices running weakly. Later, as U.S. foreign trade relations eased, U.S. cotton export data improved, and there was also an expectation of reduced production in the new year, leading to a significant increase in the price center [1][38]. - In Q2, with the continuous effectiveness of domestic policies to expand domestic demand, terminal textile and clothing consumption is expected to maintain steady growth. The replenishment demand in the foreign sales market is gradually being released, and China's textile and clothing exports are expected to maintain a year - on - year growth trend. The center of U.S. cotton is expected to rise, and the suppression of Zhengzhou cotton by the internal - external price difference may weaken. Cotton prices still have an upward basis, but the issuance of domestic quotas will alleviate the supply shortage to some extent. The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area may be relatively limited, and macro risks are increasing, narrowing the upward space for cotton prices [1][38][39]. - The predicted range for Zhengzhou cotton is around 14,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In Q1 2026, Zhengzhou cotton and U.S. cotton prices showed obvious divergence. Zhengzhou cotton was driven by multiple factors at the beginning of the year and broke through the 15,000 - yuan mark, but then maintained high - level oscillations. In March, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased the cost of cotton and boosted demand, providing support for Zhengzhou cotton [4]. - U.S. cotton prices were generally weak in Q1. Under the influence of tariffs and Brazilian cotton competition, the signing progress was slow. In February, export data improved, and the price center rose significantly. However, the U.S. cotton price was still under pressure due to concerns about the U.S. economy [8]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Core Concerns 3.2.1 New - season Policy Not Yet Issued, with a Strong Expectation of Area Reduction - Since 2017, the cotton target price subsidy policy has been adjusted every three years. As of March 12, 2026, the cumulative notarized inspection volume of national cotton in the 2025/26 season reached 752.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.78 million tons. The new - season subsidy policy for 2026 has not been issued, and there is a clear expectation of a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton area, but the actual reduction may be less than expected [10]. - According to a survey in early March, the intended national cotton planting area in 2026 is 46.249 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%, and the intended area in Xinjiang is 42.75 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [10]. 3.2.2 High Internal - External Price Difference, and the Issuance of Quotas - From January to February 2026, China's cotton and cotton yarn imports increased significantly. The National Development and Reform Commission issued 894,000 tons of 1% tariff import quotas at the beginning of the year, and the internal - external cotton price difference was high. On March 16, the policy of issuing additional cotton import quotas was implemented, with a total of 300,000 tons of sliding - scale duty processing trade quotas [15]. - In Q2, although the internal - external price difference has narrowed after the issuance of quotas, it is still at a high level in history. The price advantage of imported cotton and cotton yarn still exists, and the import volume is expected to increase compared with last year. However, the uncertainty of U.S. global tariff policies is still high [15]. 3.2.3 Strong Demand, Focus on Macroeconomic Policy Adjustment - From January to February 2026, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products in China were 283.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. In Q1, although the immediate profits of domestic spinning mills were squeezed, the overall consumption performance was strong. In Q2, domestic terminal textile and clothing consumption is expected to maintain steady growth, and the order - receiving rhythm of downstream factories and the profit repair of spinning mills will be the focus of the market [20]. - From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing export volume was 50.446 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.65%. U.S. foreign trade relations have eased, and the replenishment demand in the U.S. market is gradually being released. In Q2, China's textile and clothing exports are expected to maintain a year - on - year growth trend, but the uncertainty of U.S. foreign trade policies is still high [23]. 3.2.4 Improved Export Demand for U.S. Cotton, but New - season Planting Still Faces Challenges - As of March 12, 2026, the cumulative net signing of U.S. cotton exports for the 25/26 season was 2.189 million tons, reaching 83.77% of the expected annual export volume. In Q2, with the seasonal slowdown of Brazilian cotton exports, the procurement demand of textile countries may shift to U.S. cotton, and China's issuance of additional quotas is expected to marginally improve the signing demand for U.S. cotton [28]. - The USDA predicts that the U.S. cotton planting area in the 26/27 season will increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 57.06 million mu, but the drought in the main producing areas is still severe, and the abandonment rate may rise to 18.8%, with an estimated output of 2.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [30]. 3.2.5 Global New - season Output is the Key - The USDA expects the global cotton output in the 25/26 season to be 26.343 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 533,000 tons, and the consumption to be 25.817 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 79,000 tons. The期末 inventory is expected to be 16.631 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 573,000 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise slightly to 64% [35]. - Brazil's new - season cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 3.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to decrease by 281,000 tons to 3.795 million tons. Australia's cotton output is expected to be 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The market also expects a reduction in the output of China and the United States. The USDA predicts that the global cotton output in the 26/27 season may drop to 25.26 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will drop to 59.3% [35]. - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have affected the global fertilizer supply chain, increasing the cotton planting cost and affecting the planting willingness and yield of farmers in major cotton - producing countries [35]. 3.3 Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook - In Q1, the domestic and international cotton markets showed a significant divergence. In Q2, domestic terminal textile and clothing consumption is expected to maintain steady growth, and the export of textile and clothing is expected to maintain a year - on - year growth trend. The center of U.S. cotton is expected to rise, and Zhengzhou cotton prices still have an upward basis, but the upward space may be narrowed [38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA February supply and demand report is slightly bearish. The report did not adjust US soybean data, raised Brazil's soybean output by 20 million tons to 180 million tons (higher than the market - expected 179.2 million tons), and increased the global soybean ending inventory to 125.51 million tons. The report did not adjust Argentina's soybean output. [12] - In the short - term, the expected increase in US soybean exports boosts the US market, but the decline in Brazil's premium partially offsets the upward impact on the US market. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market. [12] - Recently, the domestic soybean crushing profit has deteriorated significantly. It is recommended to focus on the low - level long - position opportunity of IC2609. [12] - Domestic oil mills and downstream feed enterprises' soybean meal inventories are still at a high level. There is an expectation of imported soybean auctions after the holiday. The domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be loose from February to March, and the soybean meal basis is expected to be under pressure. [12] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Spot and Futures Price - Related Data - On February 11, the Dalian soybean meal futures price was 427, down 19; Tianjin was 387, down 39; and Rizhao was 307, down 9. [5] - The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 307, down 19; in Dongguan was 287, down 39; in Zhanjiang was 307, down 39; and in Fangcheng was 327, down 39. [5] - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 130, down 38. [5] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 600, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 485, down 5. [5][6] 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium in 2025 was 95.00 cents per bushel, up 10. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.8790, and the futures crushing profit was 125 yuan per ton. [6] - Data on Chinese port soybean inventories, major domestic oil mills' soybean inventories, major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventories, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days are presented in the form of time - series charts from 2019 - 2026. [5][6] 3.3 Holiday Risk Concerns - In late February, the US Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Outlook Forum is expected to announce the planting area estimates of US soybeans and corn for the 2026/27 season. Pay attention to the change in the soybean - corn ratio and its guidance for the US soybean planting area. [12] - On the night of February 4, Trump said on social media that China would increase the purchase of US soybeans by 8 million tons to 20 million tons this market season. Pay attention to changes in Sino - US trade policies and China's US soybean purchase news. [12] - As of February 7, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 17.4%, with a faster harvest progress. Pay attention to the harvest weather and the impact of Brazil's premium on selling pressure. [12] - Argentina's soybean sowing is basically over. Due to dry weather recently, the crop quality has declined, but the short - term rainfall is expected to recover. Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas during the holiday. [12] - Pay attention to domestic imported soybean auction news during and after the holiday. [12] - Pay attention to the trends of the RMB exchange rate and the Brazilian real exchange rate. [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent increase in US soybean export expectations boosts the US market, but the decline in Brazilian discounts partially offsets the upward impact on the US market. The domestic market performs weaker than the overseas market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent selling pressure of Brazilian discounts [12]. - Recently, the domestic soybean crushing profit has significantly deteriorated. It is recommended to focus on the low - level long - position opportunity at 12609 [12]. - The soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills and downstream feed enterprises remain at a high level. There are expectations of imported soybean auctions after the holiday. The domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be abundant from February to March, and the soybean meal basis is expected to face pressure [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot and Futures Price Data - On February 10, the Dalian futures price of the main soybean meal contract was 446 with a decrease of 5; the Rizhao price was 316 with a decrease of 5; the Tianjin price was 426 with a decrease of 5. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was 326 with a decrease of 25, in Dongguan was 326 with a decrease of 5, in Zhanjiang was 346 with a decrease of 5, and in Fangcheng was 366 with a decrease of 5. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 168 with a decrease of 6 [5]. - The M3 - 5 spread was 262 with an increase of 17, and the RM5 - 9 spread was - 48. The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 600 [5]. International and Domestic Data - The national major oil mills' soybean crushing volume,开机率 (start - up rate), and downstream demand data are presented in time - series charts from 2020 - 2026, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. The charts cover time periods from 03/04 to 12/08 across multiple years [7][8][9]. - The national major oil mills' soybean inventory, Chinese port soybean inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory data are also presented in time - series charts from 2020 - 2026, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text [18][19]. Holiday Risk Focus Points - In late February, the ISDA Agricultural Outlook Forum is expected to announce the estimated planting areas of US soybeans and corn for the 2026/27 season. Attention should be paid to the change in the soybean - corn price ratio during the holiday and its guidance on US soybean planting areas [11]. - On the night of February 4, Trump stated on social media that China would increase its US soybean purchases by 800,000 tons to 2 million tons this market year. After the news was released, US soybeans rose. Recently, there have been inquiries from China for US soybeans. Attention should be paid to changes in China - US trade policies and news about China's US soybean purchases during the holiday [11]. - As of February 7, the Brazilian soybean harvesting rate was 17.4% (last week 11.2%, last year's same period 14.8%, five - year average 18.7%), and the harvesting progress was still fast. The USDA estimates the Brazilian soybean production this market year to be 178 million tons. Attention should be paid to changes in harvesting weather during the holiday and the reflection of Brazilian discounts on selling pressure [11]. - The Argentine soybean sowing is basically completed. Recently, due to dry weather, the crop's good - quality rate has declined. As of February 4, the proportion of good - rated soybean crops was 40% (last week 47%, last year's same period 20%), normal was 35% (last week 37%, last year's same period 51%), and fair or poor was 25% (last week 16%, last year's same period 29%). Short - term weather forecasts indicate a recovery of rainfall, and the possibility of a large - scale production reduction is small. Attention should be paid to changes in the production - area weather during the holiday [11]. - Attention should be paid to news of domestic imported soybean auctions during and after the holiday [11]. - Attention should be paid to the trends of the RMB exchange rate and the Brazilian real exchange rate [11].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current soybean meal market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak realities." The trading logic of the external market revolves around the performance of US soybean exports and the supply pressure from South America. Short - term price premiums caused by weather disturbances in South America lead to market fluctuations. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US trade policies and the implementation of biodiesel policies. However, the overall tone of loose global supply still suppresses the global soybean price center, with limited upside potential for prices. In China, supply is expected to be tight in the first quarter, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will remain after the arrival of new South American soybeans. Currently, downstream buyers are building positions in far - month contracts due to suitable soybean meal prices, resulting in high trading volumes in far - month contracts. However, spot trading volumes have not increased significantly during the Spring Festival stocking period, falling short of market expectations. The price center of soybean meal is oscillating downward, and cautious operation is recommended. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost End - **US Soybeans**: In January, China completed the procurement plan of 12 million tons of US soybeans ahead of schedule, which was mainly a policy - based purchase by COFCO and Sinograin. The market doubts the subsequent sales of US soybean orders. As of the week ending January 22, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 819,000 tons, a 67% decrease from the previous week, a 50% decrease from the four - week average, and the lowest in 10 weeks. With the upcoming listing of South American soybeans, which are more price - attractive to Chinese buyers, there is little motivation for Chinese buyers to continue purchasing US soybeans. The implementation of the US biodiesel policy has become the focus of the market. In January, the CBOT soybean price first declined and then rebounded. Although strong NOPA crushing data and South American weather issues provided short - term support, the overall loose global supply situation still restricts the price upside. [6] - **Brazil**: Brazil's soybean harvest was initially delayed due to rainfall, but analysts still expect a bumper harvest. ABIOVE predicts Brazil's soybean output to be 177.124 million tons, higher than last year's 171.481 million tons. CONAB estimates the 2025/26 season output to reach a record 176.124 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase. As of January 30, the soybean price at the Paranagua port decreased. The bumper harvest in Brazil lays the foundation for a loose global soybean supply pattern in the 2025/26 season, and short - term weather disturbances will only cause market fluctuations. [7] Profit - Supported by costs and the boost in terminal demand during the Spring Festival stocking period, the oil mill's crushing profit has strengthened. [11] Supply End - **Arrival Quantity**: In the first quarter, due to the switch of the export windows of US and Brazilian soybeans, the quantity of imported soybeans will seasonally decline. The estimated arrival quantities in January, February, and March are about 7.72 million tons, 5.005 million tons, and 4.8 million tons respectively. In 2025, the total annual import of soybeans was 111.833 million tons, a 6.46% year - on - year increase. [12] - **Crushing and Operating Rate**: In January 2026, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 9.3672 million tons, a 2.76% month - on - month decrease, and the comprehensive operating rate was 57.71%, a 2.73% month - on - month decrease. Due to the decline in soybean arrivals in the first quarter, the operating rate and crushing volume of oil mills may decrease, and soybean meal may experience a short - term supply shortage. [12][13] Demand End - In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly, with far - month basis contracts dominating. Downstream enterprises mainly built positions for contracts from May - July and August - September to avoid price risks and prepare raw material inventories for the second half of the year. Spot trading was average, with an increase but less than that of far - month contracts. The Spring Festival stocking was lackluster. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work by downstream enterprises may slightly boost spot trading. By January 30, the total monthly trading volume was 7.4655 million tons, a 10.23% increase from the previous month and a 141.01% year - on - year increase. Spot trading volume was 1.6767 million tons, and far - month basis trading volume was 5.7888 million tons. The monthly domestic major oil mill's soybean meal pick - up volume was 3.6946 million tons, a 13.32% month - on - month decrease but a 19.87% year - on - year increase. [18] Inventory - The significant increase in soybean meal trading volume in January led to a seasonal decrease in inventory. After the Spring Festival, the de - stocking speed may accelerate. As of January, the soybean meal inventory decreased to 947,000 tons, a 4.43% month - on - month increase, and the contract volume decreased to 4.4214 million tons, an 11.46% month - on - month decrease. As of January 31, the domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 11.33 days, a 19.8% increase from the end of last month and a 3.9% increase from the same period last year. [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market currently maintains the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season. The increase in the global total soybean supply is lower than that of the total demand, and the ending inventory and inventory-to-sales ratio have both declined from high levels, with the supply-demand pattern slightly tightening. However, the supply-demand pattern remains loose [1][3][40]. - In 2026, it is expected that the domestic inventories of hogs and poultry will remain at high levels, supporting feed demand. Although the overall inventory is expected to decline slightly compared to 2025, the proportion of soybean meal added to feed is expected to increase year-on-year due to its improved cost-effectiveness and lower price. High inventories and cost-effectiveness will support the demand for soybean meal, which is expected to remain above 85 million tons in 2026, corresponding to a soybean volume of over 100 million tons [1][40][41]. - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents per bushel. The domestic cost of soybean meal from Brazilian soybeans during the supply season (May - August) is calculated to be 2,580 yuan per ton, and it rises to 2,760 yuan per ton from July - September. The planting cost of US soybeans in the second half of the 2025/26 season is 1,000 cents per bushel, and the domestic import cost of US soybeans is calculated to be 3,000 yuan per ton. The overall crushing profit from December - January is maintained between -100 yuan per ton and -200 yuan per ton, while the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans is around 30 yuan per ton, which is at a relatively good level compared to historical periods [2][41]. - In 2026, the domestic soybean meal market will have strong supply and demand, and inventory accumulation will continue. Before the South American production increase is realized, the downside space for soybean meal is relatively limited, but once the production increase is realized, the risk of price decline will intensify [3][42]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the soybean meal market fluctuated between "weak reality and strong expectation" throughout the year, showing a pattern of "increased volatility in the first half and consolidation in the second half". The annual average price of the main contract fluctuated around 3,020 yuan per ton, with a price difference of 387 yuan per ton between the high and low points [7]. - From January - March, policy disturbances led to a mismatch between supply and demand, pushing up prices. The spot price of soybean meal rose from 2,980 yuan per ton at the beginning of January to 3,050 yuan per ton at the end of the month, and the futures main contract rebounded to 3,030 yuan per ton. In February, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 58%, and the inventory fell to a low of 650,000 tons. The basis strengthened to 350 yuan per ton, and the spot price soared to 3,120 yuan per ton. In March, the failure of state - owned enterprises to sell reserved soybeans as scheduled and tightened port clearance led to a shortage of spot supply, with the basis once exceeding 800 yuan per ton and the futures main contract reaching a high of 3,240 yuan per ton [7]. - From April - June, the abundant supply suppressed prices. In late April, South American soybeans arrived at ports in large quantities, with the monthly arrival volume reaching 9.2 million tons. The oil mill operating rate rebounded to 78%, and the soybean meal inventory quickly accumulated to 980,000 tons. The price started to decline, with the spot average price dropping from 3,100 yuan per ton to 3,010 yuan per ton. In May, the export progress of Brazilian soybeans exceeded expectations, the crushing profit of domestic oil mills improved, and the operating rate remained high. Coupled with weak demand in the breeding industry due to losses, the soybean meal price continued to decline to 2,950 yuan per ton. In June, the expected increase in the US soybean planting area led the market to trade the logic of a bumper harvest in advance, with the futures main contract reaching a low of 2,860 yuan per ton and the spot average price dropping to 2,900 yuan per ton [8]. - From July - September, there was a game between weather disturbances and high inventory pressure. In July, a temporary drought in North America led to a downward adjustment of the expected yield per unit area of US soybeans, causing the futures main contract to rebound to 3,020 yuan per ton. However, the spot inventory remained as high as 1.1 million tons, and some oil mills stopped production due to full storage. The spot price only rebounded to 2,960 yuan per ton. In August, the export of South American soybeans was coming to an end, and the domestic soybean arrival volume decreased by 15% month - on - month. However, the peak season demand for aquaculture was lower than expected, and the price fluctuated in the range of 2,980 - 3,030 yuan per ton. In September, Argentina's cancellation of the soybean export tax led to an expected decline in import costs, and the double - festival stocking was lower than expected. The spot average price decreased by 0.5% month - on - month to 3,013 yuan per ton, a 2.74% decline compared to the same period last year [8]. - From October - December, the market was in a process of bottom - building and expectation repair. In October, the soybean import volume increased by 17.25% year - on - year to 9.482 million tons, and the supply remained abundant. However, the futures market was driven by the expectation of a US soybean yield reduction, and the main contract rebounded from a low of 2,852 yuan per ton, with a monthly increase of 4.9%. In November, the USDA report lowered the expected yield per unit area of US soybeans to 53 bushels per acre, but the export forecast was also lowered. The market showed a pattern of rising and then回调, with the main contract fluctuating in the range of 3,000 - 3,089 yuan per ton, and the spot average price slightly decreasing to 3,036 yuan per ton. In December, the sowing of South American soybeans was basically completed, and the expectation of a bumper harvest suppressed the upside space of prices. The main contract returned to a consolidation state, and the spot average price at the end of the month was expected to remain around 3,040 yuan per ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Global Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: The global soybean supply pattern in the 2025/2026 season is loose. The USDA estimates the global soybean output to reach 422 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 19.9%. South America is the core supply area, with Brazil's soybean output reaching a record high. The CONAB maintains the output forecast for the 2025/2026 season at 177.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the USDA also estimates a bumper harvest of 175 million tons. Although some areas in Mato Grosso had to replant due to drought in October, the overall production situation is stable. Argentina's output is expected to decline year - on - year, with the Rosario Exchange estimating 47 million tons, lower than the previous year's 49.5 million tons, but still at a historically high level. However, affected by the La Nina weather from December - January, the sowing of Argentine soybeans is slow, and the output may be affected to varying degrees. In the North American market, the output of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was lowered to 4.253 billion bushels due to insufficient precipitation in the main producing areas in August, with a yield per unit area of 53 bushels per acre. The export performance is weak, with the USDA estimating the export volume at 1.635 billion bushels, a significant decline from the previous year's 1.875 billion bushels. The main reason is that under the 13% tariff, the discount of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, lacking the advantage of crushing profit, which leads to insufficient enthusiasm for commercial procurement by Chinese enterprises [12]. - **Demand Side**: The total global demand for soybean meal is estimated to be 422 million tons, showing a steady increase compared to the previous year. The global soybean consumption is basically the same as the output. Regionally, China accounts for more than 29% of the consumption and is still the world's largest consumer market. The estimated import volume of Chinese soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 112 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4 million tons. In Asia, the large - scale development of the breeding industry drives the rigid growth of feed demand, supporting the import demand for soybean meal. In Europe, affected by environmental protection policies, the growth rate of the breeding scale has slowed down, and the demand growth is moderate. In the Americas, the demand for local feed and the biodiesel industry complement each other, and the overall demand is stable. There is significant regional demand differentiation. In emerging markets, due to population growth and the upgrading of meat consumption, the growth rate of soybean meal demand exceeds 5%. In developed countries, due to the improvement of breeding efficiency and the application of alternative raw materials, the demand growth rate is maintained at around 2%. Sino - US trade policies have reshaped the global trade flow, presenting a pattern of "South America supplying Asia, North America supplying itself and neighboring regions". Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to account for more than 50% of the global total, with 74% of its exports going to China. The proportion of US soybean exports to China is only 17.6%, a decrease of more than 30 percentage points compared to before the trade friction, and more US soybeans are flowing to Europe and the South American local market [14][15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In 2025, the domestic soybean import volume reached 113 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. From January - October, the cumulative import volume was 95.682 million tons. The import structure shows a significant trade policy orientation, with South American soybeans accounting for more than 85% (78% from Brazil and 7% from Argentina) and US soybeans accounting for 10.6%, mainly from state - owned trade procurement under the Sino - US trade agreement, with a very low proportion of commercial imports. The estimated arrival volume in November was 9.685 million tons, and in December it was 7 million tons, with a continuous abundant supply. The soybean inventory remained at a high level. As of the end of November, the national oil mill soybean inventory was 7.6195 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.20%, and there was over - storage in some areas. The crushing volume also increased significantly, with the annual crushing volume reaching a record high of 101 million tons. The average operating rate of oil mills was maintained at around 72%. In the first quarter, the operating rate was low due to policy disturbances, and it rebounded to 75% - 80% in the second and third quarters as the soybean arrival volume increased. Affected by Sino - US trade policies, the proportion of US soybeans crushed by coastal oil mills was less than 8%, far lower than 35% in 2017, mainly concentrated in large - scale oil mills with state - owned trade quotas, while small and medium - sized oil mills still mainly used Brazilian soybeans as raw materials. The soybean meal output increased in tandem with the crushing volume, with an annual output of about 83 million tons. The inventory showed the characteristics of "de - stocking in the first half of the year and inventory accumulation in the second half". As of the end of November, the national oil mill soybean meal inventory was 998,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.67%, and it was at a historically high level [18][19]. - **Demand Side**: In 2025, the domestic soybean meal consumption was over 85 million tons, with feed consumption accounting for more than 95%. The demand from the breeding industry is the core support. In the pig - breeding industry, although it was in a loss state for most of the year, the process of reducing production capacity was slow, and the inventory remained at a high level, supporting the demand for soybean meal in pig feed. In the poultry - breeding industry, due to the short cycle and flexible adjustment, there was a reduction in production capacity in some periods, leading to a decrease in demand. In the aquaculture industry, affected by the unfavorable weather in the fourth quarter of 2024, the stock volume decreased year - on - year, and the peak - season demand was lower than expected. In terms of industrial consumption, the deep - processing industry of soybean meal has developed steadily, and the demand in the fields of protein feed and food additives has increased by about 3%, but the proportion is still less than 5%, having a limited impact on the overall demand. The downstream procurement model is significantly affected by the fluctuations in Sino - US trade costs, showing the characteristics of "mainly meeting rigid demand and making long - term arrangements". When the US soybean tariff is high and the import cost is uncertain, feed enterprises mainly purchase soybean meal produced from Brazilian soybeans and replenish inventory on a rolling basis [21]. 3.3 Impact Analysis of Sino - US Trade Cooperation on the Soybean Meal Market - **2025 Sino - US Soybean Trade Review**: In 2025, Sino - US soybean trade was in a state of "low - intensity implementation under the agreement framework". The annual export volume of US soybeans to China was about 12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65%, and only 60% of the annual agreement target was completed. This was mainly restricted by three factors: First, the 13% tariff rate remained unchanged, resulting in the arrival cost of US soybeans being 180 - 220 yuan per ton higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, lacking the advantage of crushing profit. Second, the enthusiasm for commercial procurement was insufficient. Private oil mills were unable to participate in US soybean imports due to losses in import crushing profit. Third, there were issues with logistics and customs clearance efficiency. For some batches of purchases, the arrival cycle was 7 - 10 days longer than that of Brazilian soybeans due to differences in port customs clearance procedures. In terms of the import structure, US soybean imports were mainly concentrated in large - scale state - owned trade enterprises, accounting for more than 90%, and the proportion of private oil mill imports was less than 10%. The import periods were concentrated in March - April and October - November, corresponding to the low domestic soybean inventory and the agreement implementation window period respectively. Trade data shows that in 2025, among China's soybean import sources, the proportion of US soybeans was 10.6%, a significant decrease from 35% in 2017, while the proportion of Brazilian soybeans increased to 78%, forming a pattern of "dominated by Brazil, supplemented by the US" [24]. - **Core Variables of Trade Policy**: The core policy constraint in current Sino - US soybean trade is the tariff rate. US soybeans exported to China are subject to a 13% most - favored - nation tariff rate, while Brazilian soybeans enjoy relevant preferential policies in the South American Free Trade Area, with an actual effective tariff rate of 3%. In the detailed rules for the 2026 grain import tariff quota issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in October 2025, soybeans were not included in the exclusive quota management, and the current tariff policy was continued, indicating that the probability of short - term tariff adjustment is low, but there is still room for marginal policy relaxation. In terms of the quota mechanism, the 2026 grain import tariff quota mainly covers wheat, corn, and rice, and there is no exclusive quota limit for soybean imports. However, state - owned trade enterprises still dominate US soybean imports. Private and foreign - funded oil mills need to purchase through market - based channels. Coupled with the tariff cost, the competitiveness of US soybeans in the domestic market continues to be weaker than that of Brazilian soybeans. The core impact path of trade policy is "tariff rate → import cost → crushing profit → soybean meal supply → price elasticity". In 2025, due to the high - level tariff, the import cost of US soybeans remained high, resulting in the domestic soybean meal market relying more on South American soybeans for supply, and the price fluctuations were highly correlated with the production and export rhythm of South America [25]. - **Transmission Effect of Trade Cooperation on the Market**: In terms of price transmission, changes in Sino - US trade policies affect the import cost of US soybeans, change the domestic soybean supply structure, and then transmit to the soybean meal price. In March and October 2025, two trade negotiation rumors both triggered fluctuations in the soybean meal futures market, with a fluctuation range of 150 - 200 yuan per ton, reflecting the market's sensitivity to marginal changes in trade policies. In terms of cost transmission, for every 1 - percentage - point decrease in the US soybean tariff, the domestic soybean import cost can be reduced by 30 - 40 yuan per ton, and the corresponding soybean meal cost can be reduced by 50 - 60 yuan per ton. If the tariff is reduced to the benchmark rate of 3%, US soybeans will regain the cost advantage, and it is expected that their export proportion to China will rise to over 20% [26

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal and soybean oil futures are both in a wide - range oscillation phase. For soybean meal, the overall supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, but import costs and far - month stocking sentiment support the price. For soybean oil, production has shrunk due to lower factory operating rates, but high inventory and weak demand limit price increases, while import costs and factory price - holding intentions provide support [7][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The 45th week saw an actual soybean crushing volume of 1.8057 million tons in oil mills, an operating rate of 49.67%, and a soybean meal inventory of 998,600 tons. The high arrival volume of domestic soybeans and relatively sufficient crushing volume maintain a loose supply pattern. Downstream feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and poor breeding profits suppress consumption enthusiasm. Some bullish expectations in the latest USDA supply - demand report have been digested in advance. However, import cost increases and far - month stocking sentiment support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US trade policies, South American weather, and breeding demand [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in an upward channel, and the funds were strongly bearish. The M2601 contract might be in a shock - adjustment stage in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3150. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean meal futures price is in an upward channel, and the funds are relatively bearish. The M2601 contract is expected to slowly move up after short - term shock adjustment, with an expected operating range of 3000 - 3180 [10][11]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report mentions data such as soybean meal weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [19][21][24]. 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 45th week, the actual production of soybean oil in 125 oil mills was 343,100 tons, and the commercial inventory in key national regions was 1.1572 million tons. The decline in factory operating rates led to a contraction in production, but the high inventory and weak demand limited price increases. Import soybean cost increases and factory price - holding intentions supported the price. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, US biodiesel progress, and South American weather [30]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways phase, and the funds were relatively bearish. The Y2601 contract might maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean oil futures price is in a sideways phase, and the funds are relatively bearish. The Y2601 contract is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [33]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report mentions data such as soybean oil weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, and weekly port inventory, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [43][47][49][54][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the upside space is limited, with resistance at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. Abroad, the US government shutdown continues, and the market focuses on the return of US soybean orders due to the implementation of China - US policy agreements. Domestically, the supply of near - month soybeans and soybean meal is expected to be relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure will weaken as imports decline. The cost of imports supports the price of soybean meal. [3] - For rapeseed meal, the upside space is limited, with resistance at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract. Globally, the rapeseed supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 year is loose, suppressing the price of rapeseed. In China, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and the downstream aquaculture is in the off - season. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is low, which is not conducive to the substitution of rapeseed meal. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Foreign Supply and Demand 3.1.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The USDA report is expected to show a potential downward adjustment in US soybean yield in the 2025/26 year, which may reduce the ending inventory. The price of US soybeans has been oscillating at a high level, ranging from 1100 - 1160 cents per bushel. The export demand and domestic crushing demand need to be further observed. The current cost of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, and the upward pressure on prices remains. [16][17] 3.1.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazilian soybean sowing is more than half - completed, and Argentine sowing has started. The sowing progress in Brazil is behind last year due to local precipitation, but it is expected to continue to advance. The Chinese procurement supports the Brazilian soybean premium to oscillate. The market will gradually focus on the weather in South America in the next two months. [26][27] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 year, the global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons, with an increase of 6.11%. The consumption demand increases by 2.06%. The international rapeseed trade volume is expected to decline due to trade policies. The global rapeseed inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio continue to increase. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China - Canada trade policies. [53] 3.2 CFTC Positions - The report provides data on CBOT soybean and soybean meal non - commercial long and short positions, total positions, and non - commercial net long positions and their proportions, which can reflect the market sentiment and expectations of investors. [42][44][46] 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Domestic Import Situation - In October 2025, China imported 3.932 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 3.387 million tons from September. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 95.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. The supply of soybean meal in the near - term is loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. However, the increase in import costs supports the price of soybean meal. [64] 3.3.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing - Operating Rate - As of the week of November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.8057 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected to increase to 2.1579 million tons and 59.36% respectively in the 46th week. The rapeseed pressing in coastal areas has basically stagnated. [86] 3.3.3 Import Cost and Pressing Profit - The import cost of soybeans has increased, mainly due to the significant increase in CBOT soybean prices. The import cost of rapeseed from Canada and the pressing profit are also provided in the report. [93][100] 3.3.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills increased by 511,600 tons to 7.6195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.97%. The soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts increased. The rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory continued to decline. [101] 3.3.5 Downstream Demand - As of November 13, the total trading volume of soybean meal in China was 606,340 tons, a week - on - week increase. The trading volume in the spot and forward - basis markets has improved. The total提货 volume of soybean meal decreased slightly. The downstream aquaculture is in the off - season, and the livestock and poultry breeding profit situation is also provided in the report. [119] 3.3.6 Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, including the basis of different contracts and regions, as well as the spread between different contracts. [13][115]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The upside space for soybean meal is limited, with resistance at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. For rapeseed meal, the upside space is also limited, with resistance at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract [3]. - Internationally, the US government shutdown continues, and the market lacks data guidance. Attention is focused on the return of US soybean orders due to Sino-US policy agreements. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean meal is relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure is expected to ease as imports decline [3]. - The global rapeseed supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season is loose, suppressing the price of rapeseed. In China, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and downstream aquaculture is entering the off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation for rapeseed meal [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Supply and Demand - **US Soybeans** - The market expects a downward adjustment of US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report, with tightening fundamentals supporting the price. The current price is in the range of 1100 - 1160 cents per bushel. The average analyst forecast for the 2025/26 yield is 32.85 bushels per acre, down from 33.5 in September. The end - of - season inventory is expected to decrease. Policy - wise, the suspension of some tariffs has not led to large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans [16][17]. - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.02 dollars per bushel, a 6.40% week - on - week decrease and a 35.87% year - on - year decrease. As of November 6, the US soybean export inspection volume was 108.86 tons, in line with expectations [18]. - **South American Soybeans** - Brazilian soybean planting is over half - completed, but the progress is behind last year due to local rainfall. Argentina's planting has started. China's purchases support the Brazilian soybean premium, which remains stable. As of November 8, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 38.4%, lower than last year's 66.1% and the five - year average of 57%. Anec expects Brazil's November soybean exports to reach 426 tons [26][27]. 2. CFTC Positions - As of September 23, 2025, the CBOT soybean non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, and total positions, as well as the CBOT soybean meal non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, and total positions, showed certain trends. The non - commercial net long positions and their ratios of CBOT soybean meal also had corresponding changes [42][44][46]. 3. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 523 tons, a 6.11% increase, mainly due to production increases in the EU and Canada. Consumption demand is expected to increase by 2.06%. International rapeseed trade volume may decline, and the inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio will further increase [53]. - As of November 2, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 21.2% week - on - week to 18.84 tons. From August 1 to November 2, 2025, the export volume was 142.33 tons, a 54.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 131.87 tons [53]. 4. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - **Imports** - In October 2025, China imported 393.2 tons of soybeans, a 338.7 - ton decrease from September and a 123.5 - ton increase from October 2024, a 17.25% increase. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 9568.2 tons, a 6.39% increase year - on - year [64]. - Forecasts show that 932.75 tons of soybeans are expected to arrive in October, 80 tons in November, and 800 tons in December. As of November 11, the procurement progress for November was 98.83%, 43.93% for December, 5.28% for January 2026, 32.63% for February, and 62.08% for March [65]. - **Crushing and Operating Rates** - As of the week ending November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 180.57 tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected that in the 46th week (November 8 - 14), the operating rate will rise significantly, with a predicted crushing volume of 215.79 tons and an operating rate of 59.36% [86]. - The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0% this week and next week [87]. - **Inventory** - As of the week ending November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 761.95 tons, a 7.20% increase from last week and a 35.97% increase from last year. The rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 51.40 tons, a 0.08 - ton decrease from last week [101]. - **Downstream Demand** - As of November 13, the total national soybean meal sales volume was 66.34 tons, a 22.11 - ton increase week - on - week. The daily average sales volume was 17.27 tons, a 3.22 - ton increase. The total soybean meal pick - up volume was 90 tons, a 2.05 - ton decrease week - on - week [119]. 5. Basis and Spread - The coastal soybean meal spot price this week was in the range of 3010 - 3050 yuan per ton, with mixed price changes compared to last week. The national weekly average price was 3080 yuan per ton. The average basis of each region also showed mixed changes. As of November 14, the basis of the January soybean meal contract in Rizhao was - 33 yuan per ton, and the basis of the January rapeseed meal contract in Dongguan was 128 yuan per ton [137].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Futures Varieties Weekly Report: Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil" [2] - Report Date: November 10 - 14, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: The medium - term trend of soybean meal futures is in a wide - range oscillation phase. Although the optimistic Sino - US trade sentiment boosts the expected import cost, high inventory and weak demand limit the price increase space. In the short - term, the overall trend of soybean meal futures price is in an upward channel, but the capital situation has shifted from strongly bullish to strongly bearish [6][9][10]. - **Soybean Oil**: The medium - term trend of soybean oil futures is also in a wide - range oscillation phase. High oil factory inventory and weak downstream demand suppress the price, while the easing Sino - US trade relationship drives up the cost of imported soybeans, providing bottom support. In the short - term, the overall trend of soybean oil futures price is in a sideways phase, and the capital situation has shifted from relatively bullish to relatively bearish [28][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 44th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2534 million tons, the startup rate was 61.99%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons. High inventory and weak demand limit price increases, while Sino - US trade sentiment affects import costs [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade policies, South American weather, and aquaculture demand [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures price was in an upward channel, and the capital was strongly bullish. The M2601 contract was expected to continue the oscillating and strengthening pattern in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3100 [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures price is in an upward channel, but the capital is strongly bearish. The M2601 contract may be in an oscillating adjustment phase in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3150 [10]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [17][20][23] Soybean Oil 3.2.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 44th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 42,810 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2158 million tons. High inventory and weak demand suppress prices, while the cost of imported soybeans provides support [28]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, US biodiesel progress, and South American weather [28]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures price was in a sideways phase, and the capital was relatively bullish. The Y2601 contract was expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short - term [31]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures price is in a sideways phase, and the capital is relatively bearish. The Y2601 contract will maintain the range - bound pattern in the short - term [31]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly startup rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [41][47][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side will face selling and hedging pressure as new cotton is expected to be in large supply in November. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side is entering a relatively off - season after the peak season, with average recent orders. Considering these factors, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to fluctuate, with limited upside and downside potential. Additionally, Sino - US trade negotiations and the expiration of the Sino - US tariff agreement in November may have a significant impact on the market [5]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a sideways pattern, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger sideways movement. Existing long positions should take profits [6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 10, 5, and 5 respectively. Their trading volumes decreased by 86089, 45399, and 14 respectively, and open interest changed by - 1553, + 4162, and - 12 respectively. For棉纱 futures, the closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts increased by 50, 40, and 145 respectively. Their trading volumes changed by + 125, + 9, and - 2 respectively, and open interest changed by + 19, + 1, and - 1 respectively [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 21 to 14820 yuan/ton, and the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 20520 yuan/ton. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FCY IndexC33S, etc., also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spread**: Cotton and棉纱 cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had different degrees of change. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 10 with a decrease of 5, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6265 with an increase of 60 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 96.1%, with different progress in southern, northern, and eastern Xinjiang. The out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index on November 6, 2025, remained unchanged at 0.1827 yuan/ton·km, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. As of October 31, 1006 cotton processing enterprises across the country had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 178.4 million tons [4]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply side has new cotton coming onto the market in large quantities, with a large increase in production this year but a possible smaller increase than expected. The demand side is in a relatively off - season, and previous negative factors have been reflected in the price. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Sino - US trade policies need attention [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single - sided**: It is expected that US cotton will mostly fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Existing long positions should take profits [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Affected by the good news of Sino - US tariff reduction, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, but the overall trading volume did not change much. Different varieties of cotton yarn showed different trends, with the overall inventory increasing. The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth had low production and sales, and enterprises generally reported a lack of large orders [8]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: On the previous day, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 7.2333, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 7.7%, 10.5%, and 15.1% respectively [10]. - **Volume Ratio**: The previous day, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7324, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.5889. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [11]. - **Option Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12].