投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 委员干干 国贸期货研究院 黄向岚 农产品研究中心。 200 豆粕-菜粕 -5 485 盘面价差(主力) 200 01/24 02/24 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 03/26 升贴水-连续信 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 涨跌 盘面榨利(元/吨) (美分/蒲) E西 95. 00 10 6.8790 125 2025年大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) 2025年进口大豆瓣面毛利 (元/吨) 巴西1月 巴西2月 一巴西3月 巴西1月 巴西2月 - 巴西3月 == ==== 巴西4月 ===== 巴西6月 ===== 巴西7月 ===== 巴西8月 ----- 巴西7月 ====·巴西8月 ==== 巴西5月 -- 巴西6月 -- 巴西5月 400 国际数据 100 -200 50 25/2/0 your and and and on the production of the program and not 2011 108/08/ Blog/ 6/09/0 -6/07/0 9/01/2 -6/06/ ali ...

2026/2/11 | 指标 | | 2月10日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | == | ===== 17/18 | == | | ----- 19/20 | == | | | 大连 | 446 | -5 | 2500 | == | == | == | | - 24/25 | - 25/26 | | | 日照 | 316 | -5 | 2000 1000 | | | | | | | | | 天津 | 426 | -5 | 1500 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | 张家港 | 326 | -25 | -500 | | | 05/21 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 03/26 04/26 | | | | | | 东莞 | 326 | -5 | | | | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current soybean meal market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak realities." The trading logic of the external market revolves around the performance of US soybean exports and the supply pressure from South America. Short - term price premiums caused by weather disturbances in South America lead to market fluctuations. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US trade policies and the implementation of biodiesel policies. However, the overall tone of loose global supply still suppresses the global soybean price center, with limited upside potential for prices. In China, supply is expected to be tight in the first quarter, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will remain after the arrival of new South American soybeans. Currently, downstream buyers are building positions in far - month contracts due to suitable soybean meal prices, resulting in high trading volumes in far - month contracts. However, spot trading volumes have not increased significantly during the Spring Festival stocking period, falling short of market expectations. The price center of soybean meal is oscillating downward, and cautious operation is recommended. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost End - **US Soybeans**: In January, China completed the procurement plan of 12 million tons of US soybeans ahead of schedule, which was mainly a policy - based purchase by COFCO and Sinograin. The market doubts the subsequent sales of US soybean orders. As of the week ending January 22, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 819,000 tons, a 67% decrease from the previous week, a 50% decrease from the four - week average, and the lowest in 10 weeks. With the upcoming listing of South American soybeans, which are more price - attractive to Chinese buyers, there is little motivation for Chinese buyers to continue purchasing US soybeans. The implementation of the US biodiesel policy has become the focus of the market. In January, the CBOT soybean price first declined and then rebounded. Although strong NOPA crushing data and South American weather issues provided short - term support, the overall loose global supply situation still restricts the price upside. [6] - **Brazil**: Brazil's soybean harvest was initially delayed due to rainfall, but analysts still expect a bumper harvest. ABIOVE predicts Brazil's soybean output to be 177.124 million tons, higher than last year's 171.481 million tons. CONAB estimates the 2025/26 season output to reach a record 176.124 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase. As of January 30, the soybean price at the Paranagua port decreased. The bumper harvest in Brazil lays the foundation for a loose global soybean supply pattern in the 2025/26 season, and short - term weather disturbances will only cause market fluctuations. [7] Profit - Supported by costs and the boost in terminal demand during the Spring Festival stocking period, the oil mill's crushing profit has strengthened. [11] Supply End - **Arrival Quantity**: In the first quarter, due to the switch of the export windows of US and Brazilian soybeans, the quantity of imported soybeans will seasonally decline. The estimated arrival quantities in January, February, and March are about 7.72 million tons, 5.005 million tons, and 4.8 million tons respectively. In 2025, the total annual import of soybeans was 111.833 million tons, a 6.46% year - on - year increase. [12] - **Crushing and Operating Rate**: In January 2026, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 9.3672 million tons, a 2.76% month - on - month decrease, and the comprehensive operating rate was 57.71%, a 2.73% month - on - month decrease. Due to the decline in soybean arrivals in the first quarter, the operating rate and crushing volume of oil mills may decrease, and soybean meal may experience a short - term supply shortage. [12][13] Demand End - In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly, with far - month basis contracts dominating. Downstream enterprises mainly built positions for contracts from May - July and August - September to avoid price risks and prepare raw material inventories for the second half of the year. Spot trading was average, with an increase but less than that of far - month contracts. The Spring Festival stocking was lackluster. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work by downstream enterprises may slightly boost spot trading. By January 30, the total monthly trading volume was 7.4655 million tons, a 10.23% increase from the previous month and a 141.01% year - on - year increase. Spot trading volume was 1.6767 million tons, and far - month basis trading volume was 5.7888 million tons. The monthly domestic major oil mill's soybean meal pick - up volume was 3.6946 million tons, a 13.32% month - on - month decrease but a 19.87% year - on - year increase. [18] Inventory - The significant increase in soybean meal trading volume in January led to a seasonal decrease in inventory. After the Spring Festival, the de - stocking speed may accelerate. As of January, the soybean meal inventory decreased to 947,000 tons, a 4.43% month - on - month increase, and the contract volume decreased to 4.4214 million tons, an 11.46% month - on - month decrease. As of January 31, the domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 11.33 days, a 19.8% increase from the end of last month and a 3.9% increase from the same period last year. [20]

产业服务总部 饲料养殖中心 豆粕年报：底部支撑渐显，波动中寻机遇 观点总结 供应端：目前市场暂时维持南美 2025/26 年度大豆的丰产预期，全 球大豆总供应量增幅低于总需求增幅，期末库存及库销比均高位回落， 供需格局略微收紧。全球 2025/26 年度产量达 4.22 亿吨，同比减少 539 万吨，其中巴西大豆产量 1.75 亿吨、美国大豆产量 1.16 亿吨、阿根廷 大豆产量 4850 万吨，产量增幅主要来自于巴西，美国及阿根廷大豆产 量同比减少；国内进口来看，2025/26 年度中国大豆进口量 1.12 亿吨， 同比增加 400 万吨，其中预计 2500 万吨来自美国。不过 12-1 全球面 临拉尼娜天气影响，天气炒作仍存，因此南美产量变化幅度决定供需收 紧幅度。 需求端：2026 年预计国内生猪、禽类存栏依旧高位，支撑饲料需 求。但整体存栏量预计同比 2025 年度小幅下滑；配方来看，受豆粕性 价比提升以及豆粕价格偏低影响，豆粕添加比例同比提高。高存栏以及 高性价比下支撑豆粕需求，预计 2026 年度豆粕需求维持在 8500 万吨 以上，对应大豆量在 1 亿吨以上。 成本端：巴西 2025/26 年度 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal and soybean oil futures are both in a wide - range oscillation phase. For soybean meal, the overall supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, but import costs and far - month stocking sentiment support the price. For soybean oil, production has shrunk due to lower factory operating rates, but high inventory and weak demand limit price increases, while import costs and factory price - holding intentions provide support [7][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The 45th week saw an actual soybean crushing volume of 1.8057 million tons in oil mills, an operating rate of 49.67%, and a soybean meal inventory of 998,600 tons. The high arrival volume of domestic soybeans and relatively sufficient crushing volume maintain a loose supply pattern. Downstream feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and poor breeding profits suppress consumption enthusiasm. Some bullish expectations in the latest USDA supply - demand report have been digested in advance. However, import cost increases and far - month stocking sentiment support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US trade policies, South American weather, and breeding demand [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in an upward channel, and the funds were strongly bearish. The M2601 contract might be in a shock - adjustment stage in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3150. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean meal futures price is in an upward channel, and the funds are relatively bearish. The M2601 contract is expected to slowly move up after short - term shock adjustment, with an expected operating range of 3000 - 3180 [10][11]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report mentions data such as soybean meal weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [19][21][24]. 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 45th week, the actual production of soybean oil in 125 oil mills was 343,100 tons, and the commercial inventory in key national regions was 1.1572 million tons. The decline in factory operating rates led to a contraction in production, but the high inventory and weak demand limited price increases. Import soybean cost increases and factory price - holding intentions supported the price. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, US biodiesel progress, and South American weather [30]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways phase, and the funds were relatively bearish. The Y2601 contract might maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean oil futures price is in a sideways phase, and the funds are relatively bearish. The Y2601 contract is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [33]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report mentions data such as soybean oil weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, and weekly port inventory, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [43][47][49][54][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the upside space is limited, with resistance at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. Abroad, the US government shutdown continues, and the market focuses on the return of US soybean orders due to the implementation of China - US policy agreements. Domestically, the supply of near - month soybeans and soybean meal is expected to be relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure will weaken as imports decline. The cost of imports supports the price of soybean meal. [3] - For rapeseed meal, the upside space is limited, with resistance at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract. Globally, the rapeseed supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 year is loose, suppressing the price of rapeseed. In China, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and the downstream aquaculture is in the off - season. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is low, which is not conducive to the substitution of rapeseed meal. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Foreign Supply and Demand 3.1.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The USDA report is expected to show a potential downward adjustment in US soybean yield in the 2025/26 year, which may reduce the ending inventory. The price of US soybeans has been oscillating at a high level, ranging from 1100 - 1160 cents per bushel. The export demand and domestic crushing demand need to be further observed. The current cost of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, and the upward pressure on prices remains. [16][17] 3.1.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazilian soybean sowing is more than half - completed, and Argentine sowing has started. The sowing progress in Brazil is behind last year due to local precipitation, but it is expected to continue to advance. The Chinese procurement supports the Brazilian soybean premium to oscillate. The market will gradually focus on the weather in South America in the next two months. [26][27] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 year, the global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons, with an increase of 6.11%. The consumption demand increases by 2.06%. The international rapeseed trade volume is expected to decline due to trade policies. The global rapeseed inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio continue to increase. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China - Canada trade policies. [53] 3.2 CFTC Positions - The report provides data on CBOT soybean and soybean meal non - commercial long and short positions, total positions, and non - commercial net long positions and their proportions, which can reflect the market sentiment and expectations of investors. [42][44][46] 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Domestic Import Situation - In October 2025, China imported 3.932 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 3.387 million tons from September. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 95.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. The supply of soybean meal in the near - term is loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. However, the increase in import costs supports the price of soybean meal. [64] 3.3.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing - Operating Rate - As of the week of November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.8057 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected to increase to 2.1579 million tons and 59.36% respectively in the 46th week. The rapeseed pressing in coastal areas has basically stagnated. [86] 3.3.3 Import Cost and Pressing Profit - The import cost of soybeans has increased, mainly due to the significant increase in CBOT soybean prices. The import cost of rapeseed from Canada and the pressing profit are also provided in the report. [93][100] 3.3.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills increased by 511,600 tons to 7.6195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.97%. The soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts increased. The rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory continued to decline. [101] 3.3.5 Downstream Demand - As of November 13, the total trading volume of soybean meal in China was 606,340 tons, a week - on - week increase. The trading volume in the spot and forward - basis markets has improved. The total提货 volume of soybean meal decreased slightly. The downstream aquaculture is in the off - season, and the livestock and poultry breeding profit situation is also provided in the report. [119] 3.3.6 Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, including the basis of different contracts and regions, as well as the spread between different contracts. [13][115]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The upside space for soybean meal is limited, with resistance at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. For rapeseed meal, the upside space is also limited, with resistance at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract [3]. - Internationally, the US government shutdown continues, and the market lacks data guidance. Attention is focused on the return of US soybean orders due to Sino-US policy agreements. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean meal is relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure is expected to ease as imports decline [3]. - The global rapeseed supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season is loose, suppressing the price of rapeseed. In China, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and downstream aquaculture is entering the off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation for rapeseed meal [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Supply and Demand - **US Soybeans** - The market expects a downward adjustment of US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report, with tightening fundamentals supporting the price. The current price is in the range of 1100 - 1160 cents per bushel. The average analyst forecast for the 2025/26 yield is 32.85 bushels per acre, down from 33.5 in September. The end - of - season inventory is expected to decrease. Policy - wise, the suspension of some tariffs has not led to large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans [16][17]. - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.02 dollars per bushel, a 6.40% week - on - week decrease and a 35.87% year - on - year decrease. As of November 6, the US soybean export inspection volume was 108.86 tons, in line with expectations [18]. - **South American Soybeans** - Brazilian soybean planting is over half - completed, but the progress is behind last year due to local rainfall. Argentina's planting has started. China's purchases support the Brazilian soybean premium, which remains stable. As of November 8, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 38.4%, lower than last year's 66.1% and the five - year average of 57%. Anec expects Brazil's November soybean exports to reach 426 tons [26][27]. 2. CFTC Positions - As of September 23, 2025, the CBOT soybean non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, and total positions, as well as the CBOT soybean meal non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, and total positions, showed certain trends. The non - commercial net long positions and their ratios of CBOT soybean meal also had corresponding changes [42][44][46]. 3. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 523 tons, a 6.11% increase, mainly due to production increases in the EU and Canada. Consumption demand is expected to increase by 2.06%. International rapeseed trade volume may decline, and the inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio will further increase [53]. - As of November 2, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 21.2% week - on - week to 18.84 tons. From August 1 to November 2, 2025, the export volume was 142.33 tons, a 54.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 131.87 tons [53]. 4. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - **Imports** - In October 2025, China imported 393.2 tons of soybeans, a 338.7 - ton decrease from September and a 123.5 - ton increase from October 2024, a 17.25% increase. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 9568.2 tons, a 6.39% increase year - on - year [64]. - Forecasts show that 932.75 tons of soybeans are expected to arrive in October, 80 tons in November, and 800 tons in December. As of November 11, the procurement progress for November was 98.83%, 43.93% for December, 5.28% for January 2026, 32.63% for February, and 62.08% for March [65]. - **Crushing and Operating Rates** - As of the week ending November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 180.57 tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected that in the 46th week (November 8 - 14), the operating rate will rise significantly, with a predicted crushing volume of 215.79 tons and an operating rate of 59.36% [86]. - The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0% this week and next week [87]. - **Inventory** - As of the week ending November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 761.95 tons, a 7.20% increase from last week and a 35.97% increase from last year. The rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 51.40 tons, a 0.08 - ton decrease from last week [101]. - **Downstream Demand** - As of November 13, the total national soybean meal sales volume was 66.34 tons, a 22.11 - ton increase week - on - week. The daily average sales volume was 17.27 tons, a 3.22 - ton increase. The total soybean meal pick - up volume was 90 tons, a 2.05 - ton decrease week - on - week [119]. 5. Basis and Spread - The coastal soybean meal spot price this week was in the range of 3010 - 3050 yuan per ton, with mixed price changes compared to last week. The national weekly average price was 3080 yuan per ton. The average basis of each region also showed mixed changes. As of November 14, the basis of the January soybean meal contract in Rizhao was - 33 yuan per ton, and the basis of the January rapeseed meal contract in Dongguan was 128 yuan per ton [137].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Futures Varieties Weekly Report: Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil" [2] - Report Date: November 10 - 14, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: The medium - term trend of soybean meal futures is in a wide - range oscillation phase. Although the optimistic Sino - US trade sentiment boosts the expected import cost, high inventory and weak demand limit the price increase space. In the short - term, the overall trend of soybean meal futures price is in an upward channel, but the capital situation has shifted from strongly bullish to strongly bearish [6][9][10]. - **Soybean Oil**: The medium - term trend of soybean oil futures is also in a wide - range oscillation phase. High oil factory inventory and weak downstream demand suppress the price, while the easing Sino - US trade relationship drives up the cost of imported soybeans, providing bottom support. In the short - term, the overall trend of soybean oil futures price is in a sideways phase, and the capital situation has shifted from relatively bullish to relatively bearish [28][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 44th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2534 million tons, the startup rate was 61.99%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons. High inventory and weak demand limit price increases, while Sino - US trade sentiment affects import costs [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade policies, South American weather, and aquaculture demand [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures price was in an upward channel, and the capital was strongly bullish. The M2601 contract was expected to continue the oscillating and strengthening pattern in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3100 [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures price is in an upward channel, but the capital is strongly bearish. The M2601 contract may be in an oscillating adjustment phase in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3150 [10]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [17][20][23] Soybean Oil 3.2.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 44th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 42,810 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2158 million tons. High inventory and weak demand suppress prices, while the cost of imported soybeans provides support [28]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, US biodiesel progress, and South American weather [28]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures price was in a sideways phase, and the capital was relatively bullish. The Y2601 contract was expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short - term [31]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures price is in a sideways phase, and the capital is relatively bearish. The Y2601 contract will maintain the range - bound pattern in the short - term [31]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly startup rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [41][47][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side will face selling and hedging pressure as new cotton is expected to be in large supply in November. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side is entering a relatively off - season after the peak season, with average recent orders. Considering these factors, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to fluctuate, with limited upside and downside potential. Additionally, Sino - US trade negotiations and the expiration of the Sino - US tariff agreement in November may have a significant impact on the market [5]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a sideways pattern, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger sideways movement. Existing long positions should take profits [6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 10, 5, and 5 respectively. Their trading volumes decreased by 86089, 45399, and 14 respectively, and open interest changed by - 1553, + 4162, and - 12 respectively. For棉纱 futures, the closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts increased by 50, 40, and 145 respectively. Their trading volumes changed by + 125, + 9, and - 2 respectively, and open interest changed by + 19, + 1, and - 1 respectively [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 21 to 14820 yuan/ton, and the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 20520 yuan/ton. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FCY IndexC33S, etc., also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spread**: Cotton and棉纱 cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had different degrees of change. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 10 with a decrease of 5, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6265 with an increase of 60 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 96.1%, with different progress in southern, northern, and eastern Xinjiang. The out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index on November 6, 2025, remained unchanged at 0.1827 yuan/ton·km, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. As of October 31, 1006 cotton processing enterprises across the country had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 178.4 million tons [4]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply side has new cotton coming onto the market in large quantities, with a large increase in production this year but a possible smaller increase than expected. The demand side is in a relatively off - season, and previous negative factors have been reflected in the price. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Sino - US trade policies need attention [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single - sided**: It is expected that US cotton will mostly fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Existing long positions should take profits [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Affected by the good news of Sino - US tariff reduction, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, but the overall trading volume did not change much. Different varieties of cotton yarn showed different trends, with the overall inventory increasing. The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth had low production and sales, and enterprises generally reported a lack of large orders [8]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: On the previous day, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 7.2333, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 7.7%, 10.5%, and 15.1% respectively [10]. - **Volume Ratio**: The previous day, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7324, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.5889. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [11]. - **Option Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply side has a large number of new cotton flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production in the new year but the increase may be less than expected; the demand side has average recent orders, and previous negative factors have been reflected in the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate, with relatively limited upward and downward space. Sino-US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [5] - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a range-bound pattern, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger range-bound trend. Previous long positions should take profits [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts increased by 80, 65, and 65 respectively; the closing price of CY01 increased by 25, CY05 decreased by 19845, and CY09 increased by 19930. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B decreased by 34 yuan/ton, Cot A increased to 77.10 cents/pound, and prices of other varieties also had different changes [2] - **Spread**: Cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had corresponding changes [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 96.1%, with different progress in different regions [4] - On November 5, 2025, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton increased by 1.33% compared with the previous period, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4] - As of November 4, 2025, 1018 cotton processing enterprises had processed and inspected 9,218,299 bales of cotton, weighing 2.0819 million tons [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's production is abundant, the expected increase may be less than previous expectations. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate [5] Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Take profits on previous long positions [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7] - **Options**: Wait and see [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although the macro - atmosphere improved last week, the actual downstream demand did not improve significantly. The actual transaction price of pure cotton yarn changed little, and the market was mainly small, urgent, and rigid - demand orders. The follow - up needs to pay attention to downstream demand and Zhengzhou cotton trends [9] - The spot market of all - cotton grey cloth remained weak, and the weaving mills' raw material procurement was mainly based on immediate needs. Downstream customers mainly placed rigid - demand orders and were cautious about the weaving mills' sales information [9] Third Part: Options - The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 7.5%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.8%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 14.7% [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased, and the trading volume of both call and put options decreased [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [8][13] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices, cotton basis for different months, spread between cotton yarn and cotton, and spread between different cotton contracts [15][18][22][23]