Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overnight overseas asset movements suggest that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, and the market believes the conflict will not escalate. Attention should be paid to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. [1][3][14] - Domestically, the economy maintains a weak recovery, and the market is awaiting policy signals that may be released at the Lujiazui Forum. The A-share market had a volume - shrinking rebound on Monday, with broad - based indices performing well. However, the market currently lacks the conditions for an upward breakthrough and is expected to fluctuate repeatedly in the short term. [3][14] - The asset allocation and operation strategy remain unchanged, with a balanced allocation between blue - chip and technology stocks. Avoid chasing high prices. Long positions can be tested when the market index is below the 20 - day moving average. [3][14] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in June was - 16, significantly lower than the expected - 5.5 and the previous value of - 9.2, indicating a cooling of the US manufacturing industry. [1][5] - Trump announced the signing of a trade agreement between the US and the UK. The EU is reported to be prepared to conditionally accept a 10% unified tariff from the US. [1][5] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain high, but extreme situations such as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have not occurred. Market sentiment has cooled, with the US dollar index closing down, US Treasury yields falling at both short and long ends, gold and crude oil prices dropping, and the three major US stock indices rising. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index also rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated slightly higher. The market believes the Middle East conflict will not escalate. [1][5] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - In May, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8%, lower than the previous value of 6.1%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 6.4%, higher than the expected 5% and the previous value of 5.1%. Holidays and national subsidies significantly supported consumption. [2][6] - On Monday, the market opened lower and then fluctuated higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.66%. The market showed a volatile recovery trend, with weak offensive momentum after the early - morning rebound and then moving sideways. Trading volume decreased. [2][6] - In terms of sectors, media, communication, computer, and real estate led the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, beauty care, non - ferrous metals, textile and apparel, and pharmaceuticals led the losses. There were 3557 rising stocks and 1638 falling stocks in the whole market. [2][6] 1.3 Important News - **Tariffs**: Trump announced the signing of a trade agreement between the US and the UK. The EU is reported to conditionally accept a 10% unified tariff from the US, though the EU says this is speculative. India and the US plan to sign a temporary agreement by July 9. The progress of Japan - US trade negotiations is unclear. Trump said the US - Canada agreement must include tariffs, while Canada wants the US to cancel tariffs on its exports. [7] - **Israel - Iran Conflict**: The US "Nimitz" aircraft carrier is heading to the Middle East. Iran is seeking talks with the US and Israel to end hostilities. Netanyahu does not rule out assassinating Khamenei. Trump said Iran wants to reach an agreement and is considering going to the Middle East. Iran's foreign minister said Iran has never left the negotiation table but is currently focused on dealing with aggression. [8][9] - **Other News**: Trump will delay sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. The cooperation between OpenAI and Microsoft is at risk. Hong Kong's Monetary Authority will process stablecoin license applications as soon as possible. China is deeply concerned about the Israel - Iran conflict. The National Medical Products Administration has drafted a consultation paper on optimizing the review and approval of innovative drug clinical trials. Dalian and Hubei will implement the tax - refund policy for overseas tourists starting from July 1, 2025. [10][11][13] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Overnight overseas asset movements suggest easing Middle East geopolitical tensions, and the market believes the conflict will not escalate. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. [14] - Domestically, the economy maintains a weak recovery, and the market is awaiting policy signals from the Lujiazui Forum. The A - share market had a volume - shrinking rebound on Monday, with broad - based indices performing well. The capital - stock game situation in sectors remains unchanged. The Monday rebound alleviated market concerns about index adjustments, but the market currently lacks the conditions for an upward breakthrough and is expected to fluctuate repeatedly in the short term. [14] - The asset allocation and operation strategy remain unchanged, with a balanced allocation between blue - chip and technology stocks. Avoid chasing high prices. Long positions can be tested when the market index is below the 20 - day moving average. [14] 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other indicators of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. [16] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: It shows the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other data of different futures contracts, as well as the net positions of the top 20 member institutions. [17] - **Futures Basis and Spread Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the basis and spread trends of different futures contracts over time, including the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300. [19][24][28] 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price change rates, trading volumes, and other data of major stock indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as various industry sectors. [40] - **Market Style Impact on Indexes**: It analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions. [41][42] - **Index Valuation and Related Charts**: There are charts showing the valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indices and Shenwan industry sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, the ratio of rising to falling stocks, and changes in trading value. [43][47][49] 4. Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations and Interest Rates**: The report includes charts showing the central bank's open - market operations (money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and the Shibor interest rate levels over time. [54][55][56]