格隆汇2月8日丨日本首相高市早苗：将加快考虑降低消费税。日元疲软有利有弊。将继续奉行负责任、 积极的财政政策。目标是建立一个能够抵御外汇波动的韧性国家。将重视财政可持续性。若政府委员会 批准削减消费税，我们将提交该法案。 ...

日本朝野各党均在各自的竞选承诺中，除提出物价高企应对措施外，还纷纷主张降低消费税甚至废除， 预计经济与财政政策的制定方向，也将成为本次选举的核心争论点。 高市解散众议院，避谈国民关注的政治黑金问题，对日本未来外交定位鲜有阐释，还因大选缺席达沃斯 论坛等重要外交场合，对诸多国际议题迟迟未表态，日媒评论称日本这种一味聚焦内政的做法会持续削 弱其国际存在感。 【环球时报驻日本特派记者 刘文璋】日本《每日新闻》最新实施的民意调查结果显示，日本首相高市 早苗内阁的支持率为57%，较上次下滑10%；不支持率上升7%，达到29%。自去年10月该内阁成立以 来，支持率连续3个月维持在65%至67%的高位，在众议院选举临近之际出现回落。对于高市在例行国 会开幕之初决定解散众议院的举措，仅有27%的民众表示"认可"。 关于此次选举，在野党方面，立宪民主党与公明党组建新党"中道改革联合"展开对抗，共同代表野田佳 彦强调："我们要奋力让中道势力的发展势头，成为日本政坛的核心力量。"共同代表齐藤铁夫称："要 掀起政界重组的浪潮。"国民民主党未加入这一新党，而是以"进一步增加民众实际收入"为竞选主张， 谋求扩大支持率。该党代表玉木雄一郎 ...

Group 1 - The ruling coalition needs to secure at least 50 seats in the upcoming Senate election to maintain a majority, which requires exceeding 124 seats out of 248 total [1][6] - The election will involve competition for 125 seats, including 124 regular seats and 1 supplementary seat due to a vacancy in Tokyo, with over 520 candidates expected to participate [1][3] - The results of this election are seen as a test of Prime Minister Kishida's governance, especially after the ruling coalition lost its majority in the previous House of Representatives election [1][6] Group 2 - Foreign labor management has emerged as a key issue in the election, with the number of foreign residents in Japan reaching approximately 3.769 million, a 10.5% increase year-on-year [3][4] - The tourism sector has become a significant contributor to Japan's economic growth, with a target to surpass the record of 31.88 million foreign visitors set in 2019 by 2025 [3][4] - The ruling coalition has announced the establishment of a new interdepartmental agency to address issues related to illegal residency and crime among foreign nationals [4] Group 3 - Rising inflation in Japan has led to discussions about lowering the consumption tax to alleviate public financial pressure, with the core consumer price index (CPI) rising by 3.7% year-on-year as of May [5][6] - The price of rice, a staple food, has seen fluctuations, with average prices still above last year's levels despite a recent decline [5] - The ongoing tariff negotiations with the U.S. under the Trump administration are a contentious topic, with potential implications for the ruling coalition's governance and public perception [5][6] Group 4 - Analysts predict a high likelihood that the ruling coalition will fail to secure the necessary 50 seats, which could lead to increased internal dissent within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [6][7] - If the coalition loses, it may not necessarily lead to Kishida's resignation due to a lack of strong alternatives within the party [7] - Market reactions to the election uncertainty have led traders to short the yen, with a significant increase in bullish options for USD/JPY observed [7]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that utilizing surplus funds from various funds would provide sufficient resources to lower the consumption tax [1] Group 1 - The proposal to lower the consumption tax is linked to the availability of surplus funds [1] - The government is exploring financial strategies to manage tax rates effectively [1] - This initiative reflects ongoing discussions about fiscal policy in Japan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, stated that lowering the consumption tax is not appropriate and that the government is not considering new economic measures [1] Group 1 - The Japanese government is currently not planning any new economic measures [1] - The stance on consumption tax indicates a cautious approach to fiscal policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, stated that lowering the consumption tax is not appropriate [1] Group 1 - The Japanese government is currently evaluating its fiscal policies, and the consumption tax remains a critical topic of discussion [1] - Kato emphasized the importance of maintaining stable revenue sources for the government, which could be compromised by a tax reduction [1] - The statement reflects the government's cautious approach towards fiscal management amid economic uncertainties [1]