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轻工出口跟踪:美国推迟上调家具关税,持续推荐降息链
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-07 09:16
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The implementation date for the planned increase in tariffs on soft furniture from 25% to 30% and on cabinets and bathroom cabinets from 25% to 50% has been postponed by one year, reducing tariff pressure on furniture manufacturing export companies and alleviating subsequent inflation pressure in the U.S. furniture market [2][4] - The U.S. furniture industry is labor-intensive and heavily reliant on imports, with nearly 70% of imports coming from China, Vietnam, and Mexico. The previous tariff increases did not lead to a significant return of production capacity to the U.S. but rather shifted production to Southeast Asia [11] - The current tariff rates for U.S. furniture categories show that most countries face a 25% tariff, while China faces a 60% tariff on soft furniture and a 45% tariff on other furniture categories [11] - U.S. related companies' stock prices have rebounded significantly, with notable increases in stock prices for RH (up 8%), Wayfair (up 6%), and Williams-Sonoma (up 5%) [11] - The report continues to favor a rate cut chain, focusing on companies with established overseas production capabilities and absolute advantages in products or costs. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts are expected to further stimulate demand in the U.S. real estate and furniture markets [11] Summary by Sections Tariff Changes - The planned tariff increases on soft furniture and cabinets have been postponed to January 1, 2027, which is expected to ease the cost pressures on U.S. furniture manufacturers [2][4] Market Performance - The stock prices of U.S. furniture companies have shown significant rebounds following the tariff postponement, indicating positive market sentiment [11] Demand Recovery - The report anticipates a recovery in U.S. real estate and furniture demand due to the ongoing rate cuts, with potential for significant improvement in housing sales [11]