Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The recent stock market rally is driven by funds, sentiment, and structural benefits, forming a positive cycle where increased funds lead to higher trading volumes and greater upward momentum. However, there is a risk of a callback, and key indicators to watch for a shift in sentiment include a contraction in trading volume, a decline in basis, and a drop in implied volatility of options. Currently, trading volume remains around 3 trillion, and while optimism persists, risk management is necessary for single - sided long positions in futures. [1] - The market sentiment is generally positive, and after mid - August, optimism about the long - term stock market trend has increased. Strategies should be mainly long - oriented, but attention should be paid to key indicators for sentiment changes. In terms of style, weight - based stocks are showing advantages, and different trading strategies are recommended for different scenarios. [24] Summary by Directory 1. Recent Stock Market Trend Analysis - Since April, the stock index has shown an overall oscillating upward trend. After the sharp decline in April, the trading volume of broad - based indices gradually returned to normal with the entry of the national team. The rapid upward movement since late June is due to the easing of the Middle - East situation and various structural benefits. From June 20th to now, sectors such as TMT, new energy, non - banking finance, and steel have seen significant gains. [2] - The current rally is driven by the support of the national team, the release of structural benefits, positive sentiment, and the influx of funds. The trading volume of the two markets has climbed from around 1 trillion to about 3.1 trillion, approaching the high of last year. The proportion of margin trading in the total trading volume has also increased from about 8% to around 11.6%. [2] - In terms of stock index style, due to the influx of funds, small - cap stocks represented by the CSI 1000 are stronger as both hot money and leveraged funds prefer small - cap stocks with high elasticity and the support of technology concepts. [3] 2. Futures Index Observation and Analysis - With the rise of the stock market and the strong performance of small - cap stocks, the futures index has the following changes: the inter - period spread (next - quarter - current month) first dropped significantly and then rose rapidly; small - cap futures index IM has shown better performance, but there are signs of a recent style shift; the basis of the futures index has generally increased. [8] - The inter - period spread has not deviated from its operating rules. The stronger performance of the far - month contracts since mid - August may reflect an optimistic shift in market expectations for the far - term trend, influenced by factors such as the rebound from low spreads and the change in market expectations from short - term to long - term. Additionally, arbitrage trading at low spread levels has also contributed to the spread rebound. [8][9] - In terms of cross - varieties, small - and medium - cap futures indices have been stronger during the rally, but there are signs of a style shift since the end of August. This may be due to low - point arbitrage trading, the high valuation of small - cap stocks leading to a potential shift of funds to weight - based stocks, and the heavy trading of weight - based stocks in broad - based indices. [15][16] - The basis of the futures index has been rising due to positive sentiment and is currently at a high level for the year. Although there is still room for growth compared to last year's high, considering the low starting point and significant increase, there is a need to be vigilant about a cooling of sentiment. [18] 3. Stock Index Option Observation and Analysis - The implied volatility of options has increased significantly since mid - August, indicating that the market's long - term expectations have deviated from the previous consensus, and optimism about the long - term trend has increased. The stock index has also made breakthroughs, which may have attracted more funds and boosted sentiment. Currently, the implied volatility of stock index options is at a relatively high - middle level in history with room for further increase. [22] 4. Strategy Recommendations - In terms of futures, single - sided long positions should be held with risk management. In terms of style, it is recommended to focus on IF, but if the Fed cuts interest rates in September and liquidity expectations rise, small - cap stocks may show advantages again, and a temporary shift to IM can be considered. For long - term holding, IF is still recommended. Cross - variety arbitrage can focus on long IF and short IM, especially when the spread is at a low level. In terms of inter - period trading, follow the long - term rule of negative correlation between the stock market and the inter - period spread, and take the opportunity to short far - month contracts and long near - month contracts when the two show positive correlation. [24] - For options, due to the high uncertainty of the stock index trend and implied volatility, it is recommended to combine with spot trading, mainly using the insurance strategy (spot + buying put options) to obtain stock market gains while avoiding the risk of a market decline. [25]