证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 市场震荡成长背离，调结构、切大盘 ——A 股市场运行周报第 82 期 ❑ 下周行情展望 随着地缘冲突持续发酵，通胀预期随着油价上涨而升温，全球金融市场明显承压。 考虑到当前中东局势演化的复杂性，以及全球资产价格波动的聚集性，我们预计近 期 A、H 股仍有震荡调整的需求。其中，A 股权重指数（如上证指数、沪深 300） 由于 1 月中旬以来持续震荡整理，当前调整结构逐步充分，或在 3 月中旬以后逐 步企稳；相比之下，部分成长指数（如中证 500、中证 1000、国证 2000）由于近 期出现日线 MACD 顶背离，加之去年以来涨幅较大，财报季或面临业绩压力，从 技术结构看或在 4 月底以后企稳；H 股之中，恒生科技指数本周在 500 天线附近 止跌反弹，但是前期下跌速度较快，近期仍有震荡整固、二次确认的需求。虽然近 期 A、H 股波动较大，但拉长周期到季度来看，我们依旧看好"系统性慢牛"机会。 配置方面，基于"地缘发酵全球震荡，指数分化均需调整"的判断，我们建议：择 时方面，中线维持当前仓位不变，等待大盘调整结束，期间考虑控制组合整体弹性。 行业方面，银行指数调整 ...

Core Insights - The market is experiencing wide fluctuations, with some indices showing signs of divergence. A and H shares are expected to undergo further adjustments due to the complex evolution of the Middle East situation and global asset price volatility. The A-share weighted index is gradually stabilizing after sufficient structural adjustments, while some growth indices may stabilize after April due to significant gains and earnings pressure from the reporting season [1][4][44] Weekly Market Overview - The market saw wide fluctuations from March 2 to March 6, with major indices mostly retreating. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 fell by 0.93%, 1.54%, and 1.07% respectively. Growth indices like CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 dropped by 3.44%, 3.64%, and 3.53%, showing daily MACD divergence [11][42] - The energy sector, both traditional and renewable, showed strong performance, while technology sectors faced declines. Traditional energy stocks like oil and coal rose by 8.06% and 3.79%, while renewable energy stocks like electric equipment increased by 0.55%. In contrast, technology-related sectors such as media, computing, and electronics saw declines of 6.98%, 5.29%, and 5.07% respectively [12][43] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.62 trillion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous week. The main futures contracts were mostly in a state of contango, indicating a positive market sentiment [19][28] Fund Flows - As of March 5, the margin trading balance was 2.65 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous week, with the proportion of financing purchases rising to 10.28%. The stock ETF saw a net inflow of 13.56 billion yuan, with the most significant inflow in the metals sector ETF [28][33] Valuation Insights - The dynamic valuation model indicates that the overall market index valuations are reasonable, while the ChiNext index is relatively undervalued. As of March 6, the PE-TTM for the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.12, at the 99.6 percentile, while the ChiNext index was at 41.71, at the 46.08 percentile [36][39]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The A-share market showed a "front suppression and back rise" trend post-Spring Festival, with significant capital inflow into the technology growth sector, particularly in TMT, where transaction volume exceeded 50% [2] - The bond market experienced a downward trend in yields, influenced by the central bank's liquidity measures and geopolitical tensions, with the 10-year government bond yield around 1.78% [4] - Commodity prices were affected by geopolitical events, with Brent crude oil stabilizing above $72 per barrel and gold prices rising significantly, reflecting a strong demand for safe-haven assets [6] - Macro policies indicated a focus on stimulating the silver economy and easing housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai, aiming to boost demand [8] - International markets faced increased volatility, with U.S. stock indices declining due to geopolitical tensions and fears surrounding AI's impact on traditional business models [10] Market Overview - The A-share market saw a notable performance with the Shanghai Composite Index at 4163, up 1.98% for the week and 22.87% year-on-year [13] - The bond market showed mixed results, with the overall bond index slightly down by 0.07% [13] - Commodity indices reflected varied performances, with the South China Commodity Index up 3.56% for the week [13] Sector Performance - The technology sector demonstrated strong performance, with significant capital inflow and high sensitivity to marginal positive news, while the media sector showed signs of profit-taking with a weekly decline of 5.10% [2] - The small metals sector experienced a remarkable weekly increase of 17.72%, indicating a revaluation of strategic resources under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] Upcoming Focus - The upcoming Two Sessions will be critical for policy expectations, particularly regarding GDP growth targets and fiscal deficit rates, which could influence market sentiment [11] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, will be closely monitored for their potential impact on commodity prices and market stability [11] - The release of February's official PMI data will be significant for assessing the economic recovery's foundation, with potential implications for bond market support and cyclical sectors [11]

Group 1 - The article discusses the rapid changes in the current economic and technological landscape, emphasizing that the ongoing situation is more of a technology war than a prolonged economic battle [1][2]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is highlighted as currently favoring heavy asset investments, with a comparison to past trends where light asset investments were preferred [3]. Group 2 - Specific stock performance data is provided for companies like TSMC (TSM.N) and Microsoft (MSFT.O), indicating their market values and recent price changes. TSMC's market cap is noted at 1,942.8 billion with a P/E ratio of 35.6, while Microsoft's market cap is 2,916.3 billion with a P/E ratio of 24.5 [4][6]. - TSMC's stock price decreased by 0.59% to 374.580, while Microsoft's stock price fell by 2.24% to 392.740, reflecting the volatility in the market [4][6].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight decline of 0.17%, closing at 4139.53 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.68% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.46% [1] - Over 2900 stocks in the A-share market were in the red, indicating a broad market weakness [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets reached approximately 1.6 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as paper, semiconductors, and building materials saw declines, while power, coal, non-ferrous metals, steel, and agriculture sectors experienced gains [1] - Emerging sectors like computing power, AI applications, and rare earth concepts showed active performance [1] Economic Outlook - Dongguan Securities highlighted that by 2026, macroeconomic policies will focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" with an emphasis on fiscal and financial collaboration to expand domestic demand [1] - The coordinated efforts in monetary policy, fiscal policy, import-export regulation, and the real estate market aim to stabilize short-term growth while fostering long-term momentum [1] - The implementation of structural monetary policy tools and direct fiscal subsidies is expected to continuously release domestic demand potential, laying a solid foundation for qualitative and reasonable quantitative economic growth in the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Investment Recommendations - Key sectors to focus on include dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and power equipment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong start in the Year of the Horse, igniting expectations for a spring rally, with many institutions predicting an early start to the spring market [1][2] Group 1: Market Activity and Strategy Meetings - Numerous brokerage firms have adopted a "no break during the Spring Festival" approach, scheduling extensive roadshows and strategy meetings during the holiday period [1][4] - From February 16 to 23, a total of 292 conference calls were arranged by brokerage research teams, averaging over 32 calls per day [6][7] - The spring strategy meetings are characterized by diverse focuses, with some emphasizing technology growth and resource cycles, while others cover macroeconomic analysis and emerging sectors like commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces [1][20] Group 2: Focus Areas for Investment - The chemical and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment exploration by brokerages [2] - AI and robotics have emerged as hot topics during the Spring Festival roadshows, with innovative formats being utilized to engage audiences [8][16] - Brokerages are actively producing research reports on robotics, with at least 25 reports published during the holiday period, focusing on themes like commercialization and industrialization [17] Group 3: Insights from Strategy Meetings - Analysts from various brokerages have differing views on market strategies, with some predicting a "super cycle" in oil prices and recommending investments in the petrochemical sector [25] - Other analysts suggest a focus on "new battlegrounds" for investment, emphasizing the importance of short-term trading and identifying sectors with low current holdings [26] - The consensus among institutions is that the equity market is on an upward trend, with increasing market activity expected [24]

Market Overview - The market opened high and closed strong, with the ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index both rising over 1% [2][3] - Major indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4147.23, up 0.72%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14475.87, up 1.29% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Steel (up 4.69%), Non-ferrous Metals (up 3.48%), and Building Materials (up 2.75%) [2] - Conversely, sectors such as Media (down 1.15%) and Banking (down 0.46%) lagged behind [2] Concept Indices - Concept indices that performed well included Zinc Metals, Titanium Dioxide, and Phosphate Chemicals, with gains of 4.94%, 4.85%, and 4.51% respectively [2][3] - Underperforming concepts included Sora Concept (down 0.91%) and Military Restructuring Concept (down 0.89%) [2] Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a high-probability window for upward movement post-holiday, supported by macro policies and industry catalysts [4] - The anticipated return of capital from pre-holiday cashing out is expected to provide ongoing momentum for future increases [4] - Key sectors to focus on include Dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and Power Equipment [4]

Market Performance - The A-share market opened positively in the Year of the Horse, with major indices showing significant gains, including the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.87% to close at 4117.41 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.36% to 14291.57 points [2][4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating a strong market sentiment [6] Sector Analysis - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals, which rose by 5.53%, and Building Materials, which increased by 3.71% [3] - Conversely, sectors such as Media and Computer experienced declines, with the Media sector dropping by 3.20% [3] - Notable concept stocks included Combustible Ice and Cultivated Diamonds, which saw significant gains, while MLOps and AI Corpus concepts faced declines [4][3] Future Outlook - The report indicates a positive outlook for the A-share market, supported by strong performance in oil and gas stocks, chemical sectors, and precious metals [4] - The market is expected to benefit from favorable macroeconomic policies and the upcoming Two Sessions, which historically lead to a high probability of index increases post-Spring Festival [6] - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors such as dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and power equipment for potential investment opportunities [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The fiber optic industry is experiencing price increases similar to the storage sector, driven by high-end capacity crowding out lower-end products. This results in significant price hikes for lower-end products as well. [1] - The trajectory of leading companies in the fiber optic sector mirrors that of their counterparts in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) space, with examples including Changfei equating to Xuchuang, Hengtong to Xinyi, and Teifa potentially becoming Tianfu. [1] Key Insights - Many manufacturers are inflating their production capacity claims without naming specific figures. It is suggested to examine construction projects and depreciation to verify these claims, as capital expenditures for hundred-ton level optical rods can reach several hundred million. [1] - There is a desire for a sector effect within fiber optics, with a preference for promoting standout companies rather than those that have merely seen price increases in 2023. The focus is on identifying companies with strong fundamentals rather than those that are simply riding the wave of market trends. [1] - Not all fiber optic products are created equal, emphasizing that not all A2 fiber optics can penetrate the North American market. [1]

Market Performance Overview - In the week from February 2 to February 6, 2025, gold prices increased while domestic equity market indices experienced fluctuations downward [4] - The food and beverage, beauty care, and power equipment sectors showed the highest gains, while non-ferrous metals, communication, and electronics sectors faced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - A total of 40 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 30.859 billion units [5] - The breakdown of new funds includes 9 FOF funds, 16 equity funds, 7 bond funds, and 8 mixed funds [5] - Across the entire market, 33 new funds were issued, comprising 14 equity funds, 7 mixed funds, 6 FOF funds, and 6 bond funds [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - Long-term thematic fund indices showed that consumer and new energy thematic funds increased in net value, while other thematic funds performed poorly, with TMT thematic funds experiencing significant declines [6] - As of February 6, 2026, the net value changes for various thematic funds were as follows: consumer (+0.94%), new energy (+0.38%), financial real estate (-0.03%), pharmaceuticals (-0.61%), national defense and military (-1.37%), industry rotation (-2.23%), industry balance (-2.56%), cyclical (-4.60%), and TMT (-5.74%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - This week, the pace of profit-taking in equity ETFs slowed, with a total outflow of 24.3 billion yuan from small and large-cap thematic ETFs, while Hong Kong stock ETFs saw a net inflow exceeding 10 billion yuan [7] - The median return for equity ETFs was -1.75%, with a net outflow of 7.801 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -2.12% and a net inflow of 18.493 billion yuan, while cross-border ETFs had a median return of -2.51% with a net inflow of 3.210 billion yuan [7] - Commodity ETFs recorded a median return of -6.07% and a net outflow of 2.887 billion yuan [7] Broad-based ETF Insights - The week saw significant net inflows into the Sci-Tech Innovation Board thematic ETFs, totaling 5.507 billion yuan [8] - TMT thematic ETFs also experienced notable net inflows, amounting to 9.964 billion yuan [8] ESG Financial Product Tracking - This week, 21 new green bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 20.191 billion yuan [9] - The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.26 trillion yuan and a total of 4,548 bonds issued as of February 6, 2026 [9] - The existing ESG funds in the domestic market total 211, with a combined scale of 156.021 billion yuan [9] - In terms of fund performance, the median net value changes for active equity, passive stock index, and bond ESG funds were -1.15%, -0.84%, and +0.05%, respectively, with low-carbon economy, clean energy, and carbon neutrality thematic funds performing well [9]