Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a pullback this week due to a decline in market risk appetite, with major indices generally falling. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index had the best performance with a decline of -2.7%, while the ChiNext Index saw the worst performance with a decline of -6.2%. The overall valuation of the Wind All A Index is at the 83rd percentile since 2010 [4]. Industry Performance - In terms of industry performance, the banking, media, and food and beverage sectors experienced relatively smaller declines, with changes of -0.9%, -1.3%, and -1.4% respectively. Conversely, the power equipment, comprehensive, and basic chemicals sectors lagged behind with declines of -10.5%, -9.2%, and -7.5% respectively [4]. Important Events - Key events this week included China's stern diplomatic response to Japan's Prime Minister's erroneous remarks, the Netherlands' suspension of an administrative order against ASML, and President Putin's announcement regarding visa-free policies for Chinese citizens. Additionally, the November LPR rates were published, remaining unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year and 3.5% for the 5-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of stability [5]. Market Sentiment - The market remains in a bull phase, but short-term fluctuations are expected due to overseas market volatility. Factors such as increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts in December, high valuations in tech stocks, and concerns over an AI bubble have contributed to a turbulent week for U.S. stocks, with the Nasdaq index falling by 2.74% [6][7]. Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, the focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors in the short term, while maintaining attention on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors in the medium term. The market is likely to experience a period of consolidation, with previously lagging sectors such as high-dividend and consumer stocks expected to perform better [7].

2025 年 11 月 23 日 策略研究 海外波动加剧，拖累国内市场 ——策略周专题（2025 年 11 月第 3 期） 要点 本周重要事件 政策及会议方面，中方就日方错误言论提出严正交涉、荷兰暂停对安世半导体行 政令等。中方就日本首相高市早苗错误言论向日方提出严正交涉，严肃敦促日方 收回错误言论；荷兰政府宣布暂停对安世半导体的行政令；俄罗斯总统普京表示， 针对中国公民的免签政策将于近期生效。 经济数据方面，本周国内 11 月 LPR 利率公布、美国 9 月非农数据公布。11 月 1 年期与 5 年期以上 LPR 分别为 3.0%、3.5%，连续第六个月维持不变；美国 9 月非农数据超预期，新增非农就业 11.9 万人，预期 5.0 万人，前值由 2.2 万人 修正为-0.4 万人，9 月失业率 4.4%，预期 4.3%，前值 4.3%，12 月降息或暂缓。 产业方面，阿里巴巴正式官宣"千问"项目、华为将于 11 月 25 日举行新品发 布会、摩尔线程 IPO 发行价出炉。阿里巴巴正式官宣"千问"项目，全力进军 "AI to C"市场；华为宣布于 11 月 25 日举行新品发布会；"国产 GPU 第一股" ...

截至收盘，沪指跌0.46%报3972.03点，深证成指跌0.11%报13202点，创业板指跌0.2%报3105.2点，上证 50指数跌0.87%，北证50指数涨0.81%，沪深北三市合计成交19305亿元。 盘面上看，保险、银行、券商、医药、电力等板块走低，军工、煤炭、地产等板块拉升，锂矿、AI应 用、华为算力概念等活跃。 11月17日，沪指盘中震荡下探，创业板指盘中大幅下行，尾盘跌幅有所收窄；北证50指数逆市上扬。 光大证券表示，市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指 数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更 加重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短 期或以震荡蓄势为主。配置方面，短期关注防御及消费板块，中期继续关注TMT和先进制造板块。市 场处于震荡阶段时，前期滞涨方向可能表现会更好，对应于本轮即为高股息及消费板块。中期来看，流 动性驱动行情下，行情中期TMT更容易成为主线，本轮或许也会如此。若行情转向基本面驱动，考虑 到当前行情或正处于中期，先进制造值得重点关注。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance and capital flow of the ETF fund market in the past week (from November 10th to November 14th), including the overall market, different popular sub - types, and innovative themes and sub - industries, to provide reference for investors [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Overall Performance - **Market Performance**: Most stock ETFs rose this week. Hong Kong stock pharmaceutical and biological ETFs had the largest increase, with an average increase of 6.10% for funds above a certain scale. Conversely, A - share TMT ETFs and A - share growth ETFs declined significantly, with average decreases of 4.37% and 3.20% respectively for funds above a certain scale [2][5]. - **Capital Flow**: Funds flowed into A - share TMT ETFs and commodity ETFs, with net inflows of 8.239 billion yuan and 5.957 billion yuan respectively throughout the week. In contrast, A - share large - cap ETFs experienced capital outflows, with a net outflow of 7.556 billion yuan throughout the week [3][7]. 3.2 Different Popular Sub - type ETF Fund Market Performance - **A - share ETFs**: Include various types such as broad - based index (full - market, large - cap/super large - cap, small - and medium - cap, science and technology/growth enterprise board), industry (TMT, mid - stream manufacturing, consumption, pharmaceutical and biological, cycle, financial and real estate), SmartBeta (value, growth, dividend, free cash flow), and theme. Different types of funds have different performance in terms of weekly capital flow, weekly return, recent one - month return, and year - to - date return [14][15][16]. - **Hong Kong stock ETFs**: Also cover broad - based index, industry (TMT, mid - stream manufacturing, consumption, pharmaceutical and biological, financial and real estate), SmartBeta (dividend), and theme. Each type shows different performance characteristics [29][30][31]. - **Hong Kong - Shanghai - Shenzhen ETFs**: Include industry and theme types, with different performance in terms of capital flow and return [37][38]. - **US stock ETFs**: Divided into broad - based index and industry types, with corresponding performance data [39][40]. - **Other QDII - ETFs (excluding Hong Kong and US stocks)**: Provide performance information of relevant funds [41]. - **Bond ETFs**: Present the performance of bond - related ETFs [42]. - **Commodity ETFs**: Mainly gold - related ETFs, all showing a certain degree of increase this week [43]. 3.3 Innovative Themes and Sub - industry ETF Fund Market Performance - **TMT Innovation Theme**: Indexes such as animation and games, film and television themes, and financial technology have different weekly and year - to - date returns, and the corresponding representative funds also show corresponding performance [45]. - **Consumption Sub - industry**: Indexes like liquor, food and beverage, and tourism have different performance, and the representative funds follow suit [46]. - **Pharmaceutical Sub - industry**: Indexes such as vaccine and biotechnology, traditional Chinese medicine, and innovative drugs have different returns, and the corresponding funds perform accordingly [47]. - **New Energy Theme**: Indexes including power utilities, green power, and photovoltaic industry have different performance, and the representative funds show corresponding trends [48]. - **Central and State - owned Enterprise Theme**: Indexes such as mainland state - owned enterprises, Hong Kong stock central enterprise dividends, and central enterprise innovation have different returns, and the corresponding funds perform accordingly [49][50]. - **Stable Growth Theme**: Indexes such as coal, real estate, and non - ferrous metals have different performance, and the representative funds follow suit [51]. - **Hong Kong - Shanghai - Shenzhen/Hong Kong Stock Connect Sub - industry**: Indexes such as Hong Kong - Shanghai - Shenzhen Internet, Hong Kong securities, and Hong Kong stock connect pharmaceuticals have different returns, and the corresponding funds perform accordingly [52]. - **Dividend/Dividend Low - Volatility Index Family**: Indexes such as CSI 300 Dividend, CSI Dividend Low - Volatility, and SSE Dividend have different performance, and the corresponding funds follow suit [53]. - **Growth Enterprise Board Index Family**: Indexes such as Science and Technology Innovation Chip, Growth Enterprise Board Growth, and Growth Enterprise Board 50 have different performance, and the corresponding funds follow suit [54].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a general upward trend this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing the best performance at a gain of 1.1%, while the Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Board Index had the worst performance with a decline of 0.6% [1][10][12] - The valuation of the Wind All A Index is currently at the 89.2 percentile since 2010, indicating a relatively high valuation level [1][10][16] - The sectors of power equipment, coal, and oil and petrochemicals performed relatively well, with respective gains of 5.0%, 4.5%, and 4.5% [1][12][54] Group 2 - The market style this week leaned towards value, with large-cap value stocks showing a gain of 2.3%, while large-cap growth stocks only gained 0.3% [12][51] - The market is currently in a bull phase, but short-term fluctuations are expected due to influences from overseas markets, including the volatility of the US stock market [3][23][24] - The overall market valuation is at a relatively high level, with the PE-TTM valuation of the Wind All A Index at 22.2 times, which may lead to increased market divergence [23][24][36] Group 3 - Recent economic data shows that China's goods trade maintained a steady growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% in the first ten months of 2025 [2][20] - The import and export values for October were 3.7 trillion yuan, with exports decreasing by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4% [2][20] - The three major memory manufacturers have suspended DDR5 pricing, which may impact the supply chain [2][21] Group 4 - The report suggests focusing on defensive and consumer sectors in the short term, while continuing to pay attention to TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors in the medium term [34][36] - The TMT sector is expected to become a main line in the mid-term due to liquidity-driven market conditions, while advanced manufacturing may gain attention if the market shifts to a fundamental-driven phase [36][38]

证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 11 月 8 日 港股红利收涨，资金主要流入港股 TMT ETF ETF 基金周度跟踪（1103-1107） 本报告重点聚焦 ETF 基金市场表现，总结过去一周 ETF 基金市场、不同热门 细分类型 ETF 基金、创新主题及细分行业 ETF 基金的业绩表现和资金流动， 供投资者参考。 ❑ 市场表现： 本周（11 月 3 日-11 月 7 日）股票 ETF 涨跌分化。其中，港股红利 ETF 和港股主题类 ETF（主要是央国企主题）涨幅靠前，规模以上基金平均上 涨 3.62%、3.51%。相反，港股医药生物 ETF 和 A 股医药生物 ETF 跌幅靠 前，规模以上基金分别平均下跌 3.37%、3.17%。 ❑ 资金流动： 资金大幅流入港股 TMT ETF，全周资金净流入 90.65 亿元。相反，A 股大 盘 ETF 资金大幅净流出 122.64 亿元。 ❑ 风险提示：图表中列示的数据结果仅为对市场及个基历史表现的客观描述， 并不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.c ...

Core Viewpoint - Public funds have significantly increased their holdings in technology stocks, with the TMT sector's allocation surpassing 40%, indicating a potential bubble in institutional holdings [1][2] Group 1: Fund Holdings and Market Trends - Public funds' total market value in the top 50 holdings reached 806.216 billion, with information technology stocks accounting for 415.589 billion, over 50% of the total [1] - Institutional investors' holdings in the TMT sector have reached 40.16%, surpassing previous peaks during the new energy wave [1][2] - Active equity funds increased their stock positions to 85.8%, with significant allocations in the electronic and communication sectors [2] Group 2: Valuation and Market Dynamics - The technology sector is experiencing high valuation levels, with potential risks of overvaluation and market rebalancing due to concentrated holdings [3] - The electronic industry has reached a historical high in institutional holdings, with a 25% allocation [3] - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for technology stocks remains positive, supported by ongoing AI investments [5][6] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Some funds suggest that the current market conditions may present buying opportunities for quality companies despite recent profit-taking [6] - Investment strategies recommend balanced allocations, with a focus on AI computing and internet sectors during market adjustments [6]

Report Title - The report is titled "Analysis of Public Offering Equity and FOF Fund Q3 Reports: Growth Mainline Spreading at Multiple Levels, Institutional Herding Progressing Synchronously" [1] Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2025, the A-share market showed characteristics of a high-beta, comprehensively rising, growth-led structural bull market, with the Hong Kong stock market moving in tandem. Growth indices outperformed value indices, and the market showed multi-level diffusion of investment opportunities and synchronous institutional herding. Active equity funds continued to experience slight net redemptions, but the overall scale increased significantly driven by net value. Funds concentrated on increasing allocations in the TMT direction and adjusted positions from relatively weak sectors [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fund Market Overview - **Performance Review**: The A-share market in Q3 2025 showed a high-beta, comprehensively rising, growth-led structural bull market. Broad-based indices generally rose significantly, with the ChiNext leading. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and CSI 300 rose 12.73%, 29.25%, and 17.90% respectively, while the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 Index rose 50.40% and 49.02%. The Hong Kong stock market moved in tandem with the A-share market. In terms of style, large, medium, and small-cap growth indices significantly outperformed value indices, with large-cap growth leading [10]. - **Industry Index Performance**: In Q3, 30 out of 31 Shenwan industries, except for the banking industry, achieved positive returns. Technology manufacturing and non-ferrous metals performed well, while the financial sector was generally weak. The top 5 industries in terms of increase were communication (48.65%), electronics (47.59%), power equipment (44.67%), non-ferrous metals (41.82%), and comprehensive (32.77%) [13]. - **Equity Fund Performance**: In Q3 2025, the average net value of various types of equity funds increased significantly. The average maximum drawdown of balanced hybrid funds with lower stock positions was the lowest, at 4.72%, while that of ordinary stock funds was the highest, at 6.20%. In terms of the Sharpe ratio, partial equity hybrid and flexible allocation funds were relatively high in the short term, and balanced hybrid funds showed better risk-return performance in the long term [23]. - **Scale and Share**: As of the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of active equity funds was 3.99 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 20.81 pct quarter-on-quarter, and the total share was 2.64 trillion shares, a decrease of 5.27 pct quarter-on-quarter. Equity funds continued to experience slight net redemptions, but the overall scale increased significantly driven by net value [30]. - **Newly Issued Funds**: In Q3, the number and scale of newly issued active equity funds increased significantly. A total of 109 funds were newly issued, with a total scale of 5.3925 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3277 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter, reaching a new high in the past three years. Among them, partial equity hybrid funds had the largest newly issued scale, at 4.8082 billion yuan [32]. 2. Fund Holding Characteristics - **Stock/Hong Kong Stock Positions**: In Q3 2025, the equity fund positions increased, with an average stock position of 88.98%, an increase of 1.42 percentage points compared to the end of the previous quarter. The Hong Kong stock position of equity funds slightly decreased this quarter, with the average investment market value of Hong Kong stocks accounting for 13.55% of the net value, a slight decrease of 0.20 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [39]. - **Heavyweight Stock Sector Allocation**: In Q3, the technology sector was the most heavily held by active equity funds, and the holding ratio further increased significantly compared to Q2. The funds concentrated on increasing allocations in the TMT direction and adjusted positions from relatively weak sectors such as banking and food and beverage [43]. - **Heavyweight Stock Industry Allocation**: The electronics industry remained the most heavily held by equity funds, and the allocation ratio further increased, while the banking industry was significantly reduced. The concentration of the top five industries increased from 49.27% in Q2 to 58.58% [47]. - **Top Ten Heavyweight Stocks**: The top 10 stocks by market value accounted for by equity fund heavyweight holdings were Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, Tencent Holdings, Xinyisheng, Zhongji Innolight, Alibaba Group Holding Limited, SMIC, Industrial Foresight, Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd., Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., and Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. Stocks with a relatively large increase in market value accounted for in Q3 were Zhongji Innolight, Industrial Foresight, and Xinyisheng [49]. - **Heavyweight Stock Market Value & Concentration**: The market value style of equity fund holdings strengthened towards large-cap stocks. The concentration of the top 50, 100, and 200 stocks increased significantly in Q3, and the herding trend returned [58]. 3. Fund Company Analysis - **TOP20 Fund Company Scale**: In Q3 2025, the equity fund scales of the top 20 active equity fund companies increased significantly compared to Q2. The top 5 institutions remained unchanged from the previous quarter, and among the companies ranked 6 - 20, the equity scale of Yongying Fund increased significantly, rising 11 places [61]. - **TOP20 Fund Company Heavyweight Industries**: The first major heavyweight industries of the top 20 fund companies were mainly electronics and pharmaceutical biology. Dacheng Fund's first major heavyweight industry was non-ferrous metals, showing some differentiation [62]. - **TOP20 Fund Company Heavyweight Stocks**: In Q3, the average concentration of the top three heavyweight stocks of the top 20 active equity fund companies was 13.49%, and that of the top five was 20.01%, slightly decreasing compared to the previous quarter. Xingquan Fund had the highest concentration of the top three heavyweight stocks, at 24.69% [64]. 4. Theme Fund Analysis - **Fund Performance**: In Q3, the performance of various industry theme funds was differentiated. Technology theme funds performed the best, rising 45.96% in the quarter, followed by new energy and cyclical theme funds. Financial theme funds had the worst performance, only rising 3.25% [68]. - **Pharmaceutical and Consumption Themes**: In pharmaceutical theme funds, the sub - sectors with a relatively high market value accounted for were chemical preparations and other biological products. In consumption theme funds, the sub - sectors with a relatively high market value accounted for were liquor and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery [72]. - **Technology and New Energy Themes**: In technology theme funds, the sub - sectors with a relatively high market value accounted for were artificial intelligence and semiconductors. In new energy theme funds, the sub - sectors with a relatively high market value accounted for were photovoltaics and energy storage [76]. 5. FOF Holding Analysis - **High - Allocation Funds**: In Q3 2025, the active equity fund with the highest allocation in FOF heavyweight holdings was "Fuguo Steady Growth", followed by "Bodaogrowth Zhihang" and "Caixin Asset Management Digital Economy" [78]. - **High - Quantity Funds**: In Q3 2025, the active equity fund most heavily held by FOF was still "Fuguo Steady Growth", followed by "Bodaogrowth Zhihang" and "Invesco Great Wall Quality Evergreen" [80]. - **Allocation/Quantity Changes**: In Q3 2025, the active equity fund with the largest increase in both allocation and quantity in FOF heavyweight holdings was "E Fund Growth Power" [82]. - **New - Generation Fund Managers**: Among the active equity funds managed by new - generation fund managers with less than 3 years of management experience, the FOF heavyweight fund with the highest allocation in Q3 was "E Fund Strategic Emerging Industries", managed by Ouyang Liangqi [84].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a stabilization and rebound in the ROE (Return on Equity) of A-shares, indicating a recovery in overall profitability across the market, with significant improvements in growth sectors such as TMT and the ChiNext board [3][4]. Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The ROE of the entire A-share market increased from 6.74% in Q3 2022 to 6.80% in Q3 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of 0.75% and breaking a downward trend [5][6]. - The growth sectors, particularly the ChiNext and technology-focused indices, showed substantial improvements, with the ROE of the ChiNext index rising by 12.30% year-on-year [7][8]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector maintained high growth, with the ROE of technology leaders increasing from 8.04% to 10.26%, a growth of 27.59% [16]. - The consumer sector exhibited mixed results, with the ROE of the consumer index declining from 17.18% to 16.51%, while the household appliances sector showed a slight increase from 12.66% to 12.90% [17][18]. - The pharmaceutical sector showed signs of stabilization, with the overall ROE rising from 8.43% to 8.52%, while the renewable energy sector began to show improvement, with the ROE of the photovoltaic industry increasing from 1.50% to 1.75% [19][20]. Group 3: Profitability Drivers - The rebound in A-share ROE is primarily driven by improvements in net profit margins and stabilization in asset turnover rates, indicating enhanced operational efficiency rather than increased leverage [22][23]. - The sectors with the most significant revenue improvements include TMT, financial services, and midstream manufacturing, while the consumer sector remains under pressure [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the market reached a new high, the STAR 50 index experienced a decline with increased trading volume, and the behaviors of different types of funds began to diverge significantly. There are disagreements on technology and the entry of incremental funds. It is recommended to maintain a balanced portfolio and control the absolute position. Bonds can be used as a hedge against stock risks, and sectors weakly related to technology and previously underperforming should be added to the portfolio [5][8] - The market has already priced in the previous positive news in advance. Although there were no real negative factors this week, only positive news was realized, the market failed to rise. The TMT sector has shown a narrowing trend, with only storage, PCB, and semiconductor materials having excess returns in October [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Asset Price Performance - **Large - scale Asset Performance**: Overseas stocks were strong while bonds were weak, Chinese bonds strengthened, the US dollar appreciated, and precious metal prices declined. The yields of overseas bonds rose due to the decline in interest - rate cut expectations, while the yields of Chinese government bonds decreased. Commodity prices were differentiated, with precious metals falling and natural gas and soybeans rising. The US dollar index increased, but the RMB and Hong Kong dollar appreciated against the US dollar. In the domestic stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.5%, and the STAR 50 Index fell by 3.2% [12][15] - **A - share Market Performance**: This week, small - and medium - cap stocks led the gains, while the STAR 50 index underperformed. The trading volume of the A - share market increased, with most indices' average daily trading volume returning to the level of late September. The sectors of power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and computers led the gains, while sectors such as banks, beauty care, and real estate led the losses. In the TMT sector, only storage, PCB, and semiconductor materials had excess returns in October [17][23][27] Capital Behavior Tracking - **Leveraged Funds**: The proportion of margin trading and short - selling turnover in A - share turnover rebounded slightly this week. On Friday, a large amount of funds flowed into large - cap ETFs. Stocks with a market capitalization of over 50 billion yuan were de - leveraged, while stocks with a market capitalization of less than 50 billion yuan were generally leveraged. Sectors such as banks, home appliances, automobiles, steel, and pharmaceuticals were leveraged, while sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals and coal were significantly de - leveraged. Popular stocks in the electronics and communication sectors were leveraged [39][42][46] - **Quantitative Funds**: The excess returns of quantitative funds turned negative this week. The basis discount of stock index futures narrowed but remained at a relatively high level since July [64][68] - **Main Funds**: Main funds flowed out significantly from the STAR Market this week, mainly from the electronics and communication sectors, and flowed into the banking sector [71][76] - **North - bound Funds**: The total trading volume of north - bound funds rebounded this week, but the proportion decreased. The performance of their heavy - holding stocks was poor [78][82] - **South - bound Funds**: The trading volume of south - bound funds rebounded this week, but the proportion decreased. The net buying amount increased. South - bound funds flowed into the banking sector significantly and flowed out of the pharmaceutical and biological sector [84][88]