Core Viewpoint - Recent strategic adjustments by major state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China's energy sector indicate a shift from distributed solar projects to large-scale wind and solar base projects, signaling a significant transformation in the photovoltaic market [1][7]. Group 1: Recent Developments - Five major SOEs, including China Three Gorges Corporation and China Energy Investment Corporation, have transferred 19 solar business companies, primarily focusing on distributed solar assets [1]. - Major power SOEs have identified large-scale wind and solar base projects as a key focus for their upcoming work, reflecting a strategic pivot in renewable energy development [2][4]. Group 2: Reasons for the Shift - The transition to large-scale wind and solar base projects is driven by three main factors: 1. Scale effects and lower electricity costs make large-scale projects more competitive, with costs as low as 0.20-0.25 yuan/kWh compared to 0.25-0.30 yuan/kWh for distributed solar [8]. 2. Policy support for cross-provincial trading allows large-scale projects to secure favorable electricity prices, reducing volatility risks associated with distributed solar [9]. 3. Increasing risks associated with distributed solar projects, including limited grid capacity and regulatory changes, have prompted SOEs to focus on large-scale projects [10]. Group 3: Market Trends - The growth of photovoltaic installations has historically favored large-scale projects, with 68% of new installations in 2020 being centralized [10]. - By the end of 2024, distributed solar installations are projected to reach 370 million kW, but challenges such as consumption difficulties are becoming more pronounced [11][13]. - The government has planned approximately 455 million kW of large-scale projects by 2030, with over 200 million kW expected to be completed during the current five-year plan [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming five years are expected to see significant growth in large-scale wind and solar base projects, with potential total installations exceeding 500 million kW [14]. - This expansion will likely drive demand for photovoltaic products, including components and supports, significantly impacting the solar market [14].