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中谷物流(603565):小集装箱船高景气度延续,外贸出租业务持续获益
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhonggu Logistics [1] Core Views - The small container ship market remains highly prosperous, benefiting from the foreign trade leasing business [1] - The company reported a revenue of 11.258 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 9%, with a net profit of 1.835 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7% [7] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.569 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 41% to 547 million yuan [7] - The company is optimizing its capacity allocation between domestic and foreign trade to enhance operational efficiency [7] - The demand for small container ships is strong due to the shift of the industrial chain from China to Southeast Asia and ongoing trade tensions between China and the US [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.79 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 90%, leading to an estimated dividend yield of about 9% for 2025 [7] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected profits of 2 billion, 1.8 billion, and 1.7 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 13.148 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.8% [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 17.7% in 2025 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 17.4% in 2025 [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is estimated at 10 for 2025 [6]