Report Summary Core View - After the US-Iran war, the expectation of the Red Sea's resumption of navigation has completely disappeared, and the supply-demand structure of container shipping may change periodically. If the war continues, the EC2604 contract may remain strong and even break through 3000 points. If the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, the container shipping European line will quickly fall back to around 1400 [8][9]. Market Conditions - On Wednesday, the main contract opened with a daily limit, then the limit was broken and the price plunged. On the evening of March 3rd, the exchange implemented risk control measures such as limiting positions to 50 lots for container shipping European lines to suppress excessive speculation [3]. - On March 3rd, Trump stated that if necessary, the US Navy will start escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible, and promised to ensure the free flow of energy to the world. The market began to bet that the conflict will not escalate indefinitely [3]. Airlines' Performance - Before the US-Iran war, there was an expectation of navigation resumption in the Red Sea, and some shipping companies had tentatively resumed a small number of Suez routes. After the war, this expectation completely disappeared [8]. - Airlines have uniformly imposed large war surcharges. For example, CMA CGM charges $2,000 per TEU and $3,000 per FEU; Hapag-Lloyd charges $1,500 per TEU and $3,500 per FEU. MSC and Maersk also levy charges per container with similar standards [9]. - Airlines are holding up prices and controlling the number of empty flights. On March 10th, MSC directly raised the European line freight rate from $2,140 to $2,640 per TEU and plans to raise it to $3,200 in late March. Other airlines have followed suit to raise prices [9]. - After Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, 10% of the world's container ships and more than 30% of oil transportation were blocked. The Middle East route has come to a standstill, and major shipping companies have suspended bookings for the Middle East (Persian Gulf) route. Large container ships originally operating on the Middle East route have been forced to divert to the Cape of Good Hope, further compressing the effective capacity of the European route and making the space in the cabins tighter [9]. - March - April is the traditional off - season for the European line, with generally loose supply and demand. However, the war may change this supply - demand structure. Rising crude oil prices and the need to bypass the Cape of Good Hope increase shipping costs [9].