Report Summary Core View - After the US-Iran war, the expectation of the Red Sea's resumption of navigation has completely disappeared, and the supply-demand structure of container shipping may change periodically. If the war continues, the EC2604 contract may remain strong and even break through 3000 points. If the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, the container shipping European line will quickly fall back to around 1400 [8][9]. Market Conditions - On Wednesday, the main contract opened with a daily limit, then the limit was broken and the price plunged. On the evening of March 3rd, the exchange implemented risk control measures such as limiting positions to 50 lots for container shipping European lines to suppress excessive speculation [3]. - On March 3rd, Trump stated that if necessary, the US Navy will start escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible, and promised to ensure the free flow of energy to the world. The market began to bet that the conflict will not escalate indefinitely [3]. Airlines' Performance - Before the US-Iran war, there was an expectation of navigation resumption in the Red Sea, and some shipping companies had tentatively resumed a small number of Suez routes. After the war, this expectation completely disappeared [8]. - Airlines have uniformly imposed large war surcharges. For example, CMA CGM charges $2,000 per TEU and $3,000 per FEU; Hapag-Lloyd charges $1,500 per TEU and $3,500 per FEU. MSC and Maersk also levy charges per container with similar standards [9]. - Airlines are holding up prices and controlling the number of empty flights. On March 10th, MSC directly raised the European line freight rate from $2,140 to $2,640 per TEU and plans to raise it to $3,200 in late March. Other airlines have followed suit to raise prices [9]. - After Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, 10% of the world's container ships and more than 30% of oil transportation were blocked. The Middle East route has come to a standstill, and major shipping companies have suspended bookings for the Middle East (Persian Gulf) route. Large container ships originally operating on the Middle East route have been forced to divert to the Cape of Good Hope, further compressing the effective capacity of the European route and making the space in the cabins tighter [9]. - March - April is the traditional off - season for the European line, with generally loose supply and demand. However, the war may change this supply - demand structure. Rising crude oil prices and the need to bypass the Cape of Good Hope increase shipping costs [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the container shipping European route is bullish [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the Iranian situation, the European container shipping route is expected to see significant price increases, and the EC2604 contract may break through 3000 points. Investors are advised to take bullish operations in the upward trend while setting stop - losses [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the EC2604 contract hit the daily limit [1] 3.2 Important Information - On the late night of March 2nd local time, the advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed, and Iran would attack all ships attempting to pass through the strait. As of March 1st, about 170 container ships with a capacity of 450,000 TEU were stranded in the Strait of Hormuz [1] - On March 1st, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) announced that all ships operating in the Gulf region and those heading to the region should go to the designated safe shelter area and wait until further notice [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On March 2nd, the underlying index SCFIS closed at 1463.40, a week - on - week decrease of 7% [1] - On February 25th, the SCFI index closed at 398.90, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%, and it is expected to rise significantly this week [1] - After the Iranian situation, shipping companies uniformly added large war surcharges. CMA CGM charges $2,000 per TEU and $3,000 per FEU; Hapag - Lloyd charges $1,500 per 20 - foot standard container and $3,500 per container. MSC and Maersk levy charges per container with similar standards [1] - Shipping companies are supporting prices and controlling empty sailings. On March 10th, MSC directly raised the European route freight rate from $2140 to $2640 per TEU and plans to raise it to $3200 in late March. Other shipping companies followed suit [1] - The expectation of the Red Sea's resumption of navigation has turned into a complete blockade. After the US - Iran war, the expectation of resumption of navigation in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal has completely disappeared [1] - After Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, 10% of the world's container ships and more than 30% of oil transportation were受阻. Middle - East routes have come to a standstill, and shipping companies have suspended bookings for Middle - East routes. Large container ships originally operating in the Middle - East have been forced to divert to the Cape of Good Hope, further compressing the effective capacity of the European route [1] - The increase in crude oil prices and the detour via the Cape of Good Hope have increased shipping costs [1] - Currently, it is the off - season for container shipping demand, with a loose supply - demand situation. However, the war may change the supply - demand structure to a tight one [1] - Comparing with the situation from November to December 2023 when Houthi rebels attacked ships in the Red Sea, the current double - blockade of the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz may have a greater impact, a faster price increase, and a more difficult resumption of navigation [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the upward trend, take bullish operations and set stop - losses. The risk point is the easing of the Iranian situation and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [2]