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中青旅(600138):天气叠加竞争激烈,三季度业绩承压
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-11-03 12:10
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 3.161 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.21%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 54 million yuan, a decrease of 32.94% year-on-year [7] - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 140 million yuan, 168 million yuan, and 210 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 50X, 42X, and 33X [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2023, the company reported a revenue of 9,635 million yuan, with a growth rate of 50.1%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 9,957 million yuan, with a growth rate of 3.3%, and for 2025, it is expected to reach 11,052 million yuan, with a growth rate of 11.0% [6][8] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 19.34%, down by 4.17 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to competition and seasonal weather impacts [7] - The report indicates that the company's net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 1.71%, a decrease of 1.27 percentage points year-on-year [7] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for the company's earnings shows a decline in net profit for 2024 to 160 million yuan, followed by a slight recovery to 168 million yuan in 2026 and 210 million yuan in 2027 [6][7] - The report projects an EPS of 0.19 yuan for 2025, 0.23 yuan for 2026, and 0.29 yuan for 2027 [6][8] Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 9.73 yuan as of November 3, 2025, with a total circulating share capital of 724 million shares [2]