行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 消费者服务行业周报（20260223-20260227） 推荐（维持） 春节客流创历史新高，下沉市场释放消费潜力 消费者服务 2026 年 03 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：饶临风 邮箱：raolinfeng@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080002 证券分析师：曹锦瑜 邮箱：caojinyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525100001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 55 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 4,988.04 | 0.43 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4,570.81 | 0.49 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -7.7% | -0.7% | 9.2% | | 相对表现 | -6.9% | -20.3% | -9.9% | -8% 3% 13% 23% 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/10 25/12 26/02 2025- ...

2026 年 03 月 02 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、2025 与 2026Q1 业绩符合公司预期，高端处理器市场版图快速扩展-- 海光信息/半导体(688041/212701) 科创板公司动态研究 分析师：刘熹 S0350523040001 联系人：唐锦珂 S0350125070014 事件: [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2026 年第 30 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2025 与 2026Q1 业绩符合公司预期，高端处理器市场版图快速扩展--海光信息/半导体(688041/212701) 科创 板公司动态研究 可转债市场机构行为全景与策略启示——机构行为 100 篇（一）--固定收益专题研究 磷矿资源属性凸显，看好磷化工一体化产业链--行业动态研究 AI 业务快速增长，已成为公司业绩新驱动力--百度集团-SW/数字媒体(09888/217207) 点评报告（港股美股） 延续高质量增长，入境游成为强劲增长引擎--携程集团-S/旅游及景区(09961/214610) ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in commodities driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which may lead to rising prices for oil and precious metals in 2026 [2][5][6] - The A-share market is expected to experience short-term volatility due to geopolitical factors, but will likely refocus on domestic fundamentals and policy expectations in the medium term [3][15] - The report highlights a significant investment in AI applications by major domestic internet companies, indicating a competitive landscape focused on user habit formation and commercial viability [9][12] Market Overview - The report lists a "March Gold Stock Portfolio" featuring companies such as Poly Real Estate Group, CITIC Hanzhong, and Mindray Medical, indicating a focus on sectors like real estate, transportation, and healthcare [1][7] - The A-share market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4162.88, up 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06% [1] - The report notes that the steel industry performed well, with a 3.37% increase, while sectors like construction materials and telecommunications saw declines [1] Commodity Insights - The report anticipates that geopolitical events will significantly impact oil and certain petrochemical product prices, with a focus on the implications of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [5][29] - It is projected that Brent crude oil prices could exceed $80 per barrel due to potential supply disruptions from Iran, with historical comparisons to the 2022 Ukraine conflict [5][29] - The chemical industry is advised to focus on low-valuation leading companies and sectors benefiting from price increases under the "anti-involution" policy [28][33] AI Industry Developments - Major domestic internet companies invested over 4.5 billion yuan in promoting AI applications during the Spring Festival, marking a shift towards practical applications and user engagement [9][12] - The report highlights the rapid evolution of domestic AI models, with significant advancements in performance and market application, indicating a dual development path towards general models and vertical industry applications [10][12] - Concerns about AI replacing human jobs are noted, but the report emphasizes that current AI capabilities are more about enhancement rather than replacement [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the AI sector and those involved in the development of general models and industry-specific AI agents, such as MINIMAX-WP and iFLYTEK [13][12] - It also recommends monitoring traditional chemical leaders that are adapting to new materials and benefiting from improving industry conditions [33]

多数板块过半披露，旅游景区业绩回暖 从披露率来看：除专业服务板块外其他子板块披露率过半，其中体育板块2家上市公司均已披露业绩预 告。从预盈率来看：旅游及景区板块业绩逐渐回暖，13家已披露业绩预告的上市公司中有8家预计盈 利；专业服务板块表现稳健，预盈率过半；其余板块表现不佳，体育板块上市公司均预计亏损。从子板 块预告类型占比来看，旅游及景区业绩持续承压，但行业回暖呈现积极信号，扭亏为盈的公司占比由 8%大幅提升至23%；酒店餐饮业绩向好，2家公司预增，亏损占比下降；专业服务稳中向好，略增占比 提升，其余类型占比变化不大；教育板块业绩表现不佳，10家公司中7家持续亏损，1家首次亏损。 风险因素：自然灾害和安全事故风险，政策风险，宏观经济不及预期风险，统计偏误风险。 截至2026年2月15日，社服板块共有42家上市公司发布2025年业绩预告，行业披露率为49%，整体预盈 率为45%，在消费八大行业中排行第六。我国消费结构正从商品消费主导转向商品与服务消费并重，以 体验为核心的服务消费有望成为主要增长引擎。 披露率近半，业绩整体承压 截至2026年2月15日，社会服务行业共计85家A股公司，已有42家发布业绩预告， ...

Core Insights - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87% to 4,117.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.99%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 2.20 trillion RMB, with over 3,700 stocks rising [2][8] - In the Shenwan industry classification, the oil and petrochemical and building materials sectors led the gains, while the media sector lagged. Among concept sectors, combustible ice and cultivated diamond concepts had the highest increases [2][8] Important News - On February 24, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the inclusion of 20 Japanese entities in the export control list, which includes companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries that are involved in enhancing Japan's military capabilities. Another 20 entities, including Subaru Corporation, were placed on a watch list due to unverified end-users and end-uses of dual-use items [3][8] Industry Analysis - As of February 15, 2026, 42 listed companies in the social service sector had released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 49% and an overall pre-profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumption sectors. The consumption structure in China is shifting from goods to a balance of goods and services, with service consumption expected to be a major growth driver [9][10] - The social service sector is anticipated to see structural opportunities in the first half of 2026, driven by policies such as the implementation of the Spring and Autumn holiday system and a gradual recovery in consumer confidence. Key areas of focus include travel-related companies benefiting from these policies, leading chain restaurants in a critical phase of expansion, and early-stage investments in emerging experiential sectors like sports events and concerts [9][10] Earnings Forecasts - The social service sector has a total of 85 A-share companies, with 42 having released earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49%, ranking fourth among consumption sectors. Among the companies that released forecasts, only 19 are expected to be profitable in 2025, with a pre-profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among consumption sectors. Compared to the same period in 2024, the sector's performance is under pressure, with a noticeable trend of divergence [10][12] - The tourism and scenic area sector is showing signs of recovery, with 8 out of 13 companies that released forecasts expected to be profitable. The professional services sector is performing steadily, while the sports sector is expected to incur losses [10][12]

摘要 春节期间高端酒店和旅游需求超预期，出行相关消费显著受益，酒店 RevPAR 大幅提升，如华住、锦江、首旅等头部酒店集团均实现显著增 长，价格贡献是主要驱动力。 餐饮行业持续升温，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额同比增长 8.6%，火锅龙头企业翻台率和接待量均有所增加，预定量显著提升，表 明外出就餐比例增加带动餐饮业增长。 免税板块总体符合预期，但海南地区三亚增速优于海口，表明区域市场 存在差异。政府消费券有效拉动海南离岛免税增长，预计全年海南离岛 免税销售增速将维持在 20%左右。 珠宝零售市场分化，高端奢侈品珠宝消费较好，但金价高位对投资金需 求未直接拉动，首饰消费需求集中释放。部分品牌如潮宏基、周大福等 在高金价背景下表现强劲。 医美领域客流双位数增长，但单价有所下降。重组胶原蛋白类产品增速 亮眼，童颜水光类产品通过走量模式销售。预计 2026 年医美行业将比 2025 年更乐观，新技术与新成分加快获批。 春节消费观察总结 20260223 Q&A 今年春节期间消费市场的整体表现如何？有哪些主要趋势？ 今年春节期间，消费市场表现出三大主要趋势。首先，高端消费复苏明显，且 呈现 K 型分化。例如，大众 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Insights - As of February 15, 2026, 42 out of 85 listed companies in the social services sector have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49%. The overall pre-profit rate for the sector is 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumer sectors. The consumption structure in China is shifting from goods to a balanced focus on both goods and services, with experience-based service consumption expected to be a major growth driver. For 2026, stable consumer policy guidance is anticipated, but recovery in the fundamentals will take time due to adjustments in household balance sheets. The first half of 2026 is expected to present mainly structural opportunities [2][3][30]. Summary by Sections Disclosure and Performance - The social services sector has a disclosure rate of 49%, ranking fifth among eight major consumer sectors. Among the 42 companies that have released forecasts, only 19 are expected to be profitable, leading to a pre-profit rate of 45%, which is the sixth highest among consumer sectors. Compared to 2024, the performance of the social services sector is under pressure, with only 14% of companies expected to see year-on-year profit growth, a decrease of 4% from the previous year. The proportion of companies turning losses into profits and those continuing to incur losses has increased to 10% and 48%, respectively, with nearly half of the companies continuing to report losses [3][11][30]. Subsector Performance - Most subsectors have a disclosure rate exceeding 50%, with the tourism and scenic spots sector showing signs of recovery. Among 13 companies that have disclosed forecasts in this sector, 8 are expected to be profitable. The professional services sector remains stable with over half expected to be profitable, while the sports sector is expected to incur losses. The tourism and scenic spots sector continues to face pressure, but there are positive signals of recovery, with the proportion of companies turning losses into profits increasing from 8% to 23%. The hotel and restaurant sector is performing well, with two companies expecting profit increases and a decrease in loss ratios. The education sector, however, is underperforming, with 7 out of 10 companies continuing to report losses [4][15][16][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the travel chain sector that will benefit from the implementation of the spring and autumn holiday system and the gradual recovery of consumer confidence. Additionally, attention should be given to leading chain restaurants that are in a critical phase of scaling up and increasing market share, as well as the early-stage value of emerging experience-based sectors such as sports events and concerts [2][30].

| 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5( | | --- | --- | --- | | 4117.41 | 14291.57 | 1535.4 | | +35.34 +0.87% +191.38 +1.36% +5.66 +0 | | | | 科创20 | 创业板指 | 万得全/ | | 1465.37 | 3308.26 | 6828.5 | | -4.97 -0.34% +32.31 +0.99% +71.78 +1 | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A5( | | 4707.54 | 8392.91 | 5910.7 | | +47.14 +1.01% +93.32 +1.12% +70.01 +1 | | | | 中证1000 | 中证2000 | 中证红 | | 8299.77 | 3536.69 | 5754.4 | | +94.94 +1.16% +43.51 +1.25% +86.19 +1 | | | 马年首个交易日，A股三大指数今日集体走高，截至收盘，沪指涨0.87%报4117点，深证成指涨1.36%，创业板指涨0.99%。全市场成交额2.22万亿元，较前 一交易日增量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the cultural tourism sector, driven by its dual business model of "performing arts + cable cars," with core assets including the live performance "Long Hate Song" and the Huashan cable car, creating a business loop and brand barrier [2][19] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.263 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 511.73 million yuan, indicating stable growth in its main business [2][19] - The company benefits from supportive service consumption policies that promote the development of the cultural tourism industry [16][19] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 1.088 billion yuan in 2023, 1.263 billion yuan in 2024, 1.052 billion yuan in 2025, 1.174 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.308 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - Net profit projections are: 427.45 million yuan in 2023, 511.73 million yuan in 2024, 394.30 million yuan in 2025, 513.89 million yuan in 2026, and 588.88 million yuan in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 5.53 yuan in 2023, 6.62 yuan in 2024, 5.10 yuan in 2025, 6.65 yuan in 2026, and 7.61 yuan in 2027 [1] Business Segments - The performing arts segment is expected to generate 7.39 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with the "Long Hate Song" contributing 6.81 billion yuan, reflecting a 26% year-on-year increase [25][36] - The cable car segment is projected to generate 4.73 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with the Huashan cable car expected to carry 371 million passengers, reflecting a 10% increase [27][55] - The tourism catering segment is anticipated to generate 0.42 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, although it is expected to decline by 11% year-on-year [34][19] Group Support - The controlling shareholder, Shaanxi Tourism Group, is a significant player in the cultural tourism sector, with assets exceeding 54 billion yuan as of September 2025, providing comprehensive support to the company [57][60] - The group operates multiple 5A-level scenic spots and cultural performances, enhancing the company's operational capabilities and resource integration [60]

Core Viewpoint - Changbai Mountain's stock price has reached a 60-day low due to technical adjustments, capital outflows, and seasonal industry factors, although the company's fundamentals have not significantly deteriorated [1]. Stock Performance - From January 13 to February 12, 2026, Changbai Mountain's stock fell by 10.80%, while the tourism and scenic spot sector declined by 2.35% and the social services sector by 0.80%, indicating weaker performance compared to the industry and the broader market [2]. - The stock price has dropped below the 20-day moving average of 44.008 yuan, with KDJ indicators showing K line at 13.521 and J line at 0.241, suggesting strong short-term selling pressure [2]. Capital Flow Situation - On February 12, 2026, there was a net outflow of 15.3395 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 2.6746 million yuan, which was insufficient to offset the selling pressure from major funds [3]. - The cumulative net outflow from major funds over the past five days has been significant, exacerbating the downward trend in stock price [3]. Reasons for Stock Price Fluctuation - Previous gains were corrected after a strong winter season in 2025, where visitor numbers during the New Year holiday increased by 40.77% year-on-year, pushing the stock price to a high of 52.20 yuan in mid-January [4]. - Recent profit-taking by investors has led to a decline from this high, compounded by seasonal factors as the peak ice and snow tourism season comes to an end, leading to cautious sentiment regarding future visitor growth [4]. - A report from Zhongcheng International in February 2026 indicates that the tourism industry has shifted from "scale recovery" to "quality-price ratio improvement," making some investors sensitive to potential slowdowns in short-term performance growth [4]. Future Considerations - Attention should be paid to the progress of future financing projects, such as the second phase of the hot spring complex, and the long-term impact of transportation improvements on visitor numbers [5].